Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[proffesso]

that said, ps3 did a fairly good job with thermal design. it was a 90nm chip originally if I recall correctly

pc's are big and clunky because they are generic. make a specialised pc, somthing that is designed around a set component, ad you can go very small.

laptops come to mind, sgi o2, imac's, g4 cube...and past and current gen consoles.

dont take desktop PC thermal design as any indication of what a console can do.

 

[MfA]

People exaggerate the airflow necessary even in PCs, the meager airflow from a single 800 RPM 120mm fan is enough to cool a 200 Watt videocard (of course getting the heat out of the case requires more, but that kind of indirectness of airflow is not an issue in consoles).

 

[Silent_Buddha]

what was the xbox1 hardware spec comparitively to PC when it launched?

what about 360 and PS3?

personally I think you guys are lowballing the numbers, if past trends are somthing to go by, these should at least match, and probably surpass a upper-end PC when released.

Well that's not quite entirely true. Just for example Video + System memory for both HD consoles was far below your average and even budget PC's at time of launch.

CPU's and GPU's were a bit more analogous to enthusiast level hardware during R&D but closer to mainstream performance by the time the hardware was released. With the GPUs being closer to the high end than the CPU's used.

Consoles can make far more efficient use of available memory and thus don't need nearly as much as a common PC.

Regards,
SB

 

[holsty101]

A slightly more realistic scenario would be:

...
NO OPTICAL DISC (digital distribution)
...

No optical storage is more realistic?

 

[liolio]

A bit too optimistic IMHO but matches my general expectations. A slightly more realistic scenario would be:

3-4 core PowerX (could be Power6) most likely in-order.
DX11 GPU with 32 Megs EDRAM (perfect for 4xMSAA 720p, and 2xMSAA 1080p)
2 Gigs GDDR-5
NO OPTICAL DISC (digital distribution)
16+ Gigs flash/SSD built-in (for Arcade SKU)
OPTIONAL 300+ Gigs HDD (for Pro SKU)
launch X-mas 2012 with at least 2 SKUs

So you got back from you 8 cores + 4way multithreading 32threads mosnter
I agree 4 cores could be enough, as even in the pc realm 4 quad cores won't be that common, low end in the pc realm by this time could consists in 2 cores + GPU/VPU.
I think that MS should stick with the xenon just fix what is wrong with the implementation ( a hardware fix for the LHS penalty, better prefetching, more L2 caches with lower latencies, improved vmx units, more bandwidth to the unified RAM pool).

In regard to the GPU, I could see the it almost generation ahead ala xenos.
I've a question in regard to the edram, what if by this time ROP/RBE opération are handle by the shaders cores? I remember Intel simulation for the larrabee and it looked like this could be handled efficiently by SIMD units.

If the ROP/RBE are still here and stuck in the Edram I could see a two chips system:
"CPU (4 cores)+shaders cores" and "Edram+RBE/ROP".
If not it will more likely be "CPU" + "GPU".
I would like 3GB just to make the most of the 32bits adress space.

I hope that the system will still have an optical disk as my internet acces is kind of slow. And would Gamestop and the likes be willing to push the system if they know that they won't sell games for it? Digital distribution should be an option but not madatory imho.

SSD is cool for the OS and caching, I agree with the fact that the HDD should be optional but I would like it bigger, as I like the idea of being able to copy/install games on it. By the time quiet some gqmes should be +20GB (especially if technics as megatextures is succesful).

My favored system could be:
* Cpu 4 cores @3.2GHz, L2 cache 2MB or more (would be pretty tiny and cheap, faster serial connection to the memory controler located in the gpu ~20GB/s)
* GPU (mostly shader cores no ROP/RBE, I don't know about rasteriser) including the memory controler to the unified RAM pool. It would be of an average size 150/200mm²
* 3GB of RAM GDDR6 on a 128bits bus (granting somewhere between 70 and 80GB/s worse of bandwidth)
*16 GB SSD
* 4x BRD
* Optional: huge HDD

 

[Barbarian]

I hope that the system will still have an optical disk as my internet acces is kind of slow. And would Gamestop and the like would be willing to push the system if they know that they won't sell games for it? Digital distribution should be an option but not madatory imho.

Digital Distribution doesn't mean everything needs to be downloaded online. It would be trivial for MS to setup ATM style kiosk to copy content to USB memory sticks or whatever.
Gamestop and Bestbuy of course would HATE this idea, since it not only doesn't require retail space but would also DESTROY second hand/rental markets, which is the life blood for Gamestop (less so for Bestbuy who sell mostly new games and have other items beside games).
See the thing is, it doesn't matter what GS and BB think. The only two parties that matter are Miscrosoft and game publishers. It should be obvious that cutting the middle man will leave bigger profits to both MS and said game publishers.
Game publishers are already locked to a given console (360/PS3/etc) so DRM is no issue (unlike movies/music which need to play on all sorts of devices).
Plus I think there will be a bigger push towards episodic/DLC style content and the era of blu-ray size games will be over before it started.

 

[Barbarian]

No optical storage is more realistic?

Just look at the recent popularity of all these netbooks everywhere. None of them have optical drives. I'm typing on one right now (HP Mini $350) and guess what, I use a $30 16GB SDHC for all my storage/copy/install needs.
Just few years ago if someone had asked me if this is a realistic scenario I'd have thought they are crazy.

 

[MfA]

The lack in your ability to judge the future then shouldn't give you great confidence here ... you're just repeating past mistakes in the other direction.

 

[Crossbar]

Digital Distribution doesn't mean everything needs to be downloaded online. It would be trivial for MS to setup ATM style kiosk to copy content to USB memory sticks or whatever.

I guess this is feasible but I think it is more likely that you will buy some preloaded SD-flash card with some built-in copy protection than loading games to a USB-stick. Even if you can come up with some digital signature system coupled to your live-account/Xbox id, it will somehow involve internet and I don´t think that MS will introduce a console that is totally dependent on an internet connection by 2012. I don´t think the market will be ready for that and a lot of people still like to have a physical representation of stuff they buy.

Either it will have an optical drive or they will support some kind of preloaded flash-memories as a media. But personally I don´t expect MS or Sony to introduce a brand new console before 2013. Maybe an upgraded 360 or PS3 and if they do that, the true next generation may appear even later than that.

 

[Entropy]

A PC has a very large case, special power supplies, and a lot of noisy fans to help with cooling. Unles a major form factor change occurs, there is a limit to how much power/heat a game console can have.

This is even more true for a console that has multimedia aspirations.
I wouldn't dream of buying an audio device that makes acoustic noise, and while there are some that don't care that much, there are one hell of a lot of people that do.
Also, energy efficiency aside, if your device is in the living room, it has to look the part, and fit into shelves/bookcases/et cetera, again without overheating or generating noise.

Both the PS3 and the XBox360 designs were failures in these respects. The PS3 has gotten some blue-ray related sales anyway, but if it had drawn 15W and been silent and stowable, it would have been vastly more attractive to the overwhelming majority of people. Of course, that wasn't possible back in 2005/2006. But I wouldn't rule out Sony taking the path of selling the next playstation as a blue-ray player with playstation functionality rather than the other way around. If the blue-ray format has gained momentum by then, this could be a good, and very Stringerish business move.

 

[MfA]

If they wanted to let you use a commodity flash media to transport the game rather than fleece you for special ones for special prices they could easily do so securely. The console would merely have to write it's device ID to the flash, the kiosk could then retrieve the appropriate encryption key to encrypt the game on the fly during download and lock it to the console.

Even at 500 MB/s which a really good USB 3.0 stick might be able to pull downloads would take a while with say a 50 GB game though ...

 

[grandmaster]

Mail order would be killed in a stroke. The concept of buying games as presents for birthday and Christmas would be dead. I for one believe that both next gen consoles will have BD drives, not least because Sony needs it because they want to sell movies.

Moving away from optical disc in favour of digital distribution seems to be a recipe for alienating massive swathes of your market. Forget the piracy argument. PS3 remains totally secure. Xbox 360 was only hacked because Microsoft didn't encrypt the DVD-ROM firmware (other hacks would've been killed by dash updates), and even then it's highly debatable if piracy has had any discernable impact.

 

[V3]

Mail order would be killed in a stroke. The concept of buying games as presents for birthday and Christmas would be dead.

I've seen those gift cards for iTunes. I don't see why that couldn't work for games.

I for one believe that both next gen consoles will have BD drives, not least because Sony needs it because they want to sell movies.

Yeah, I don't think they'll go without BD drives. I am pretty sure 3 years from now discs will still be the main method of distribution for console games.

 

[Crossbar]

If they wanted to let you use a commodity flash media to transport the game rather than fleece you for special ones for special prices they could easily do so securely. The console would merely have to write it's device ID to the flash, the kiosk could then retrieve the appropriate encryption key to encrypt the game on the fly during download and lock it to the console.

It could be done, but there are many questions that pops up, like would you be able to backup your USB-flash game, could you load it to your harddrive and what would prevent you from loading to several consoles? Having a digitally distributed game linked to a Live or PSN account is a much more robust solution and then you need an internet connection. That is why I think some kind of a proprietary SD flash card is more likely than some standard USB-flash drive, if they want to remove the optical drive completely.

Mail order would be killed in a stroke. The concept of buying games as presents for birthday and Christmas would be dead.

This could be done by selling preloaded cards/codes similiar to MS-points or PSN-cards but for specific games.

I for one believe that both next gen consoles will have BD drives, not least because Sony needs it because they want to sell movies.

Moving away from optical disc in favour of digital distribution seems to be a recipe for alienating massive swathes of your market. Forget the piracy argument. PS3 remains totally secure. Xbox 360 was only hacked because Microsoft didn't encrypt the DVD-ROM firmware (other hacks would've been killed by dash updates), and even then it's highly debatable if piracy has had any discernable impact.

I agree with this, but even people at Sony has questioned the inclusion of a physical disc drive in the PS4, but that only gives me reason to believe that the PS4 is really far away. The physical drive may also be optional for those who want to use physical game distributions and want to watch BDs. MS has succefully shown that customers don´t really care about getting nickle&dimed on peripherals, so it may be a very viable option and a way to keep the price down on one SKU.

 

[MfA]

It could be done, but there are many questions that pops up, like would you be able to backup your USB-flash game

Sure.

could you load it to your harddrive and what would prevent you from loading to several consoles?

It's encrypted for one console, other consoles couldn't decode it.

 

[Crossbar]

Sure.

It's encrypted for one console, other consoles couldn't decode it.

Yeah, if you have a unique console ID that you bring to the store, which of course could be loaded onto the flash-drive that you bring.

That would work and it may even help you to get a new copy if you keep your receipt in the case your flash-drive or harddrive breaks.

But still I think it would be a complement to a physical media and not a complete replacement.

 

[liolio]

The Wow factor are very hard to obtain with a single GPU solution. They need to move away from single GPU to multiple GPUs just like how it is in PC world.

That would lead to a too expansive system imho.
A RV740 is around 4 times more powerful than the xenos in peak figure and it is likely more efficient at his job on top of that. Both Sony and MS are likely to have more powerful parts than that thus I believe the Wow factor will be there for console users. Consoles can't compete against high end Pc especially now power consumption for multi gpu card is too high.

 

[Rangers]

This could be done by selling preloaded cards/codes similiar to MS-points or PSN-cards but for specific games.

Amazon.com already does this for XBLA games btw. When you buy a XBLA game from Amazon (sometimes Amazon may have a good sale that isnt on regular XBL), you're just buying a download code.

 

[RudeCurve]

Just look at the recent popularity of all these netbooks everywhere. None of them have optical drives. I'm typing on one right now (HP Mini $350) and guess what, I use a $30 16GB SDHC for all my storage/copy/install needs.
Just few years ago if someone had asked me if this is a realistic scenario I'd have thought they are crazy.

Um..nobody plays games on Netbooks that are 7GB+ in size...

 

[pc999]

Just look at the recent popularity of all these netbooks everywhere. None of them have optical drives. I'm typing on one right now (HP Mini $350) and guess what, I use a $30 16GB SDHC for all my storage/copy/install needs.
Just few years ago if someone had asked me if this is a realistic scenario I'd have thought they are crazy.

Taking in account how limited netbooks are, they really dont need it, in fact they barelly suport any qualitity multimedia apps.

Anyway many problems may rise from places like gamestop (you cant download the console, remotes etc...), many people still prefer having the optical media (that is why most PC games still sell on DVDs), having a new worldwide infrastructure isnt cheap or easy....