Predict: Next gen console tech (10th generation edition) [2028+]

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I'm not sure why your impression of VSM is that it can only handle a 'handful' of shadow casting lights when it has optimizations like caching, sparsity, and advanced techniques like one-pass projection. Fortnite itself can handle rendering a dozen local lights (6 virtual shadow textures are allocated for each!) after culling with VSM well enough …

@Bold With specifically no HW enhancements in mind, I can see next generation platforms being able to handle potentially up to 3-4 planar reflectors ...

A dozen lights is plenty. Is that assuming all lights aren’t updated every frame? The VSM cache is pretty fragile and I’m guessing rendering a dozen VSMs in one frame is a no go. And then you still need to figure out area light shadows.

Since SRAM scaling hitting a ceiling, the ever ballooning costs of newer process technologies and the advent of smaller reticle limits all the while there being still a major outstanding issue (slow acceleration structure updates) on the most advanced RT implementations it is likely that next generation consoles will give out in terms of hardware improvements before they even reach RT for the majority of AAA games ...

Yup and those manufacturing constraints apply equally to exotic raster HW too.

'Standardized' HW isn't living up to the console vendors expectation of being or becoming 'cheaper' overtime anymore so they have absolutely NOTHING to lose in particular at all by applying several exotic HW feature modifications going forward ...

That evaluation seems premature since we have no consoles with beefy RT hardware today. I’m not sure how you can claim HW that doesn’t exist isn’t living up to console vendor expectations.
 
A dozen lights is plenty. Is that assuming all lights aren’t updated every frame? The VSM cache is pretty fragile and I’m guessing rendering a dozen VSMs in one frame is a no go. And then you still need to figure out area light shadows.
The VSM cache works on the basis of page granularity invalidation so sure a lot of scene updates might cause some frame time spikes but let's not pretend that updating a BVH that contains millions of primitives is still somehow 'competitive' against it and yes VSM doesn't really solve the light leaking problems with soft shadows so I'm thinking about including hardware acceleration for data structures that contains information with multiple occluders ...

Epic Games really wants VSM to be a comprehensive shadowing solution. It's the best in class solution for hard shadows with directional light sources and it can even be used for other types of light sources like spot/local lights too. It can even work for non-nanite meshes too with some overhead caused by the more inefficient testing of large primitives against the clipmaps ...
Yup and those manufacturing constraints apply equally to exotic raster HW too.
Yeah but we aren't building raster architectures to have super robust memory systems or engineer them towards a unified rendering model in the context of consoles. A lot more hardware logic can be conserved by simply not implementing the Noah's Ark for RT that is modern NV hardware compared to more clever rasterizer modes/algorithms ...
That evaluation seems premature since we have no consoles with beefy RT hardware today. I’m not sure how you can claim HW that doesn’t exist isn’t living up to console vendor expectations.
Console vendors aren't interested in the idea of real-time rendering for AAA games being gatekeeped behind RTX 4090s (which isn't a complete system!) so they'll presumably have to think up of something else since it's highly likely that they won't see anything equivalent to it for another good decade if that ...
 
How do you realistically cache a data structure that potentially contains millions of triangles for secondary rays.
You won't get good hit rates for the dispersed secondary rays if the BVH doesn't fit into the cache, nor will you get good hit rates by looping in random directions through the screen pixels.

Since geometry information is already encoded after G-buffer generation, there are exactly zero memory indirections to read this information!
So what? To trace a ray through the scene encoded in the G-buffer, you will still need to do plenty of dependent texture reads per pixel using the depth, normals, and color render targets. Is it somehow different?

How does that save you any work when you still have to maintain/traverse against a full featured data structure that is both dynamic and represents actual scene geometry ?
Don't understand your question. The approach I described will make your RT sampling dense for diffuse reflections (at the cost of cubemap limitations), resulting in coherent memory accesses and good hit rates, the thing you have been complaining about. It won't save you from the need to build a BVH, of course, but that wasn't discussed either.

That's probably still going to take up less die area/fewer logic than adding in tons of special RT accelerated states, on-die caches, and AI HW ...
RT cores are bindless and they are not even part of the graphics pipeline, so they can't have the "tons of states". So, what are the special RT states you're talking about?
There is zero confirmation of your claims about the complexity of the RT hardware. Fantasies aside, the difference in performance per area between the GTX 16 series and the RTX 20 series in pure rasterization was minimal.

Consoles are just going to corner themselves if they truly want to go the full way of being "dumbed down PCs"
This is nonsense. If anything, consoles have the best chances to differentiate themselves from PCs by innovating in RT, since they can easily double down on RT units and custom hardware for BVH, sorting, etc. Consoles were never obligated to have the best perf/area and perf/watt in legacy workloads, unlike PC products, where mass consumers and the press are typically resistant to and skeptical of innovation. Additionally, there is the API, where consoles are far less restricted. So, no, consoles have already cornered themselves as dumbed-down PCs. Innovating in RT is a possible way out.
 
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Epic Games really wants VSM to be a comprehensive shadowing solution. It's the best in class solution for hard shadows with directional light sources and it can even be used for other types of light sources like spot/local lights too
Clearly as I pointed out earlier, Epic also wants RT shadows badly. Epic is moving into multiple directions at once.

Yeah but we aren't building raster architectures to have super robust memory systems or engineer them towards a unified rendering model in the context of consoles
Now I really can't understand this argument, you wanna avoid the hardware cost of RT+AI by using exotic custom GPU solutions?

I certainly hope this never happens, this will send AMD into an recoverable downward spiral, since this exotic custom GPU solutions won't certainly be from AMD.

AMD relies on the console makers funding to renew their PC archetictures (they synchronize major PC archs with console archs), without the funding from consoles they won't be able to compete with NVIDIA as they won't be able to do much of hardware upgrades or changes, especillay now as their resources are split between the money making CDNA and their shrinking RDNA. Their PC market share and revenues are in the toilet already and can't provide much of a significant funding. They don't even forecast things to improve on that front in the near future.

Also exotic hardware means more cost on console makers, since they get a discount from AMD (as AMD uses the money on their PC GPUs as well). That cost will be transmitted to the user.

More costs will also be incurred, console makers now care about putting their games on PC, if consoles use exotic hardware then the cost of porting games will be higher. The cost of making multiplatform games will also be higher as well, since it's highly unlikely that both Microsot and Sony will end up using the same exotic hardware.
 
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So guys, what anyone think of next XBox raw power? How many Tflops in theory it will get, how much RAM? How many cores will be in GPU? What about frequency of GPU and CPU?
 
So guys, what anyone think of next XBox raw power? How many Tflops in theory it will get, how much RAM? How many cores will be in GPU? What about frequency of GPU and CPU?
We've been doing for a while now, I think I recall saying that this generation would land around 2070 power and it more or less did.
It's becoming ever so difficult to keep that price down however.

By the time we're in 2026, if that is the target release date, perhaps a 5070 might be around the power of a 2026/27 console.
I frankly have doubts we'll get to 4090 power in a console by 2026/27. That much power in a small box under a TV at a 499 price point just doesn't seem possible.

But that's just me.
 
nor will you get good hit rates by looping in random directions through the screen pixels.
If bandwidth consumption is such a concern with deferred shading then forward rendering is always an option and you can combine that approach with deferred texturing if you want to save on overdraw too. No matter how you slice it, both are solved problems while there's no good answer to the memory indirections for ray tracing ...
So what? To trace a ray through the scene encoded in the G-buffer, you will still need to do plenty of dependent texture reads per pixel using the depth, normals, and color render targets. Is it somehow different?
GPUs have texture caches and a varying occupancy model to easily hide this memory latency. Good luck doing this for ray tracing where spilling (rip perf) is common and most architectures have highly sensitive memory hierarchies ...
Don't understand your question. The approach I described will make your RT sampling dense for diffuse reflections (at the cost of cubemap limitations), resulting in coherent memory accesses and good hit rates, the thing you have been complaining about. It won't save you from the need to build a BVH, of course, but that wasn't discussed either.
@Bold Only for the cubemap itself which doesn't solve the elephant in the room itself of needing to render to the dynamic cubemap during runtime which involves using a very expensive BVH to trace rays and shade against ...

I'm not sure if you understand the idea behind GoW Ragnarok's cubemaps which is to have them exactly pre-rendered for quick look ups during RT ... (a cheap static BVH with only 12 triangles)
RT cores are bindless and they are not even part of the graphics pipeline, so they can't have the "tons of states". So, what are the special RT states you're talking about?
There is zero confirmation of your claims about the complexity of the RT hardware. Fantasies aside, the difference in performance per area between the GTX 16 series and the RTX 20 series in pure rasterization was minimal.
Some RT implementations can feature their own specialized HW pipelines just like graphics or compute pipelines. Just because RT pipelines don't look anything like GFX pipelines (world space geometry/screen space pixel shading stages, rasterizer modes, texture sampling modes, special memory, MSAA state etc) were used to doesn't mean there aren't any RT specific HW states otherwise how do you explain the acceleration structure property restrictions, different RT shader stages, or the predefined ray-triangle intersection rules ?

If you say there are no special HW states for RT then why does Nvidia encourage graphics programmers to use SER which are only available with ray generation shaders instead of true function calls and have no extension for traversal shaders ? (there shouldn't be any perf difference if there's no special HW, right ?)
This is nonsense. If anything, consoles have the best chances to differentiate themselves from PCs by innovating in RT, since they can easily double down on RT units and custom hardware for BVH, sorting, etc. Consoles were never obligated to have the best perf/area and perf/watt in legacy workloads, unlike PC products, where mass consumers and the press are typically resistant to and skeptical of innovation. Additionally, there is the API, where consoles are far less restricted. So, no, consoles have already cornered themselves as dumbed-down PCs. Innovating in RT is a possible way out.
There's far more HW implementations out there that have competent compute/raster pipelines which continue getting feature advancements like GPU-driven rendering while RT has had no standardized API functionality updates for a long time now ...
Clearly as I pointed out earlier, Epic also wants RT shadows badly. Epic is moving into multiple directions at once.
They want RT yet ironically they keep disabling static meshes with world position offset by default according to their own performance guide with tons of other performance warnings ...
Now I really can't understand this argument, you wanna avoid the hardware cost of RT+AI by using exotic custom GPU solutions?

I certainly hope this never happens, this will send AMD into an recoverable downward spiral, since this exotic custom GPU solutions won't certainly be from AMD.
In case you didn't know any better, a GPUs warp scheduler can't co-issue tensor core instructions with other instructions on the same sub-partition in same cycle. You're not just turning on some matrix units whenever the you're doing some matrix math but you're also taking down the entire SIMD unit along with it's register file too leaving no capacity to do other compute as well!

Don't make it sound like me being some proponent for divergent graphics architecture design is equivalent to someone having NIH syndrome ... (just reuse things that work well like raster/compute while replacing things that's not working well like RT)
AMD relies on the console makers funding to renew their PC archetictures (they synchronize major PC archs with console archs), without the funding from consoles they won't be able to compete with NVIDIA as they won't be able to do much of hardware upgrades or changes, especillay now as their resources are split between the money making CDNA and their shrinking RDNA. Their PC market share and revenues are in the toilet already and can't provide much of a significant funding. They don't even forecast things to improve on that front in the near future.
Neither AMD nor the console vendors truly have anything to lose at this point by diverging from PC graphics. If they do decide to go the full way of a console "carve out" then AMD will have protected the console market from coverging with PCs for their partners all the while self perpetuating the existence of their graphics business to be able to survive based on that carve out ...
Also exotic hardware means more cost on console makers, since they get a discount from AMD (as AMD uses the money on their PC GPUs as well). That cost will be transmitted to the user.

More costs will also be incurred, console makers now care about putting their games on PC, if consoles use exotic hardware then the cost of porting games will be higher. The cost of making multiplatform games will also be higher as well, since it's highly unlikely that both Microsot and Sony will end up using the same exotic hardware.
PC hardware is failing to get significantly cheaper overtime so taking custom hardware is their only option left to make bigger technological jumps ...

Of course they're not going to give up on multiplatform development that easily but because of the fact that there's no parity anymore between PC and console graphics technology means that PC being the definitive experience platform ceases to be either true (missing graphical effects) or become really perverted (upgraded renderer poses as a wall with high hardware requirements) ...
 
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They're not going to build drastically different "exotic" hardware.. They're just not.

-Increased platform R&D costs would cause console hardware prices to increase drastically and is a major financial risk. They simply do not want to take losses on these products anymore.. we know that.
-Vastly different hardware throws backwards compatibility support up in the air. Throw that away and your console is done for. Again, maintaining support adds cost to the platform.
-Divergence from established development tools/environments will increase costs for developers, and PC is simply too important to not consider these days.

I feel like the only company out there with any incentive to do their own thing completely would be Sony... and if you have Nintendo locked in with Nvidia, and MS locked in with Windows and Xbox support and compatibility.... Sony is just singling themselves out for no reason, adding costs and risk.... when everyone just buys consoles FOR GAMES. The hardware isn't holding the games back... budgets are. Adding stupid risk by making an "exotic" platform for developers to have to learn and mess with, with no guarantees, will just make development unnecessarily riskier for studios which already take 5-6 years to make a game....

So yea, go ahead Sony.. do another Kutaragi and let's see what happens :D
 
If they do decide to go the full way of a console "carve out" then AMD will have protected the console market from coverging with PCs for their partners all the while self perpetuating the existence of their graphics business to be able to survive based on that carve out ...
Protected? what is this? some kind of good vs evil fairy tale? AMD's graphics business will collapse with no console funding, they won't even survive with their lack of software features or hardware performance. They won't carve anything out, if they go exotic route (away from DirectX and API standards), they would die in a heart beat, as they don't have the marketshare or the mindshare for anyone to care.

PC hardware is failing to get significantly cheaper overtime so taking custom hardware is their only option left to make bigger technological jumps ...
Nobody cares, PC is scalable, you can run the game on low and be done with it, unlike consoles, if you have a 3050 you can have a 120fps experience, you can't do that on consoles. You can always buy cheap hardware that runs all the games on PC, you have iGPUs that can run every PC game in the wild. That point is irrelevant.

And we already have technological jumps on PC, they are called Path Tracing now, and it's already bigger than any rasterization jump in the past decade.
PC having the definitive experience platform won't be either true (missing graphical effects) or really perverted (upgraded renderer poses as a wall with high hardware requirements) ...
PC never experienced missing graphical effects in the past no matter what exotic hardware out there.

As for high hardware demands, then this comes at the expense of consoles nuking themselves out, getting rid of backward and forward compatibility (which you seem to value so much given your arguments for Switch 2 to ditch NVIDIA), and raising costs of game developments/porting/remastering .. while also raising hardware costs. Engine costs will also explode, since console makers will have to fork special builds of popular engines to be able to use them (which you don't like).

You are basically all over the map on this one, your whole basis of arguments is anything opposite to what NVIDIA does, if some vendor goes to NVIDIA then oh it's bad, backward compatibility is lost. If some other vendor is going AMD, but NVIDIA is still sweeping the market, then ditch backward compatibility, ditch AMD, and go do something else! If new APIs are coming out with new features, then hail GPU driven rendering and hail AMD for sticking with the "good APIs", but if that is not enough and NVIDIA is acing the game with strong ray tracing and machine learning features, then ditch the APIs, ditch everything and go exotic! If NVIDIA is making a special UE5 build with the upgraded features then it's bad and no one will use it, but if we go exotic and fork out specific engine builds then that's fine and dandy, as long as they are not NVIDIA builds! Be consistent please.
 
So near 50Tflops then?
Wherever the PS6 will be, I don't think they will market teraflops and raster power. I can see 30 teraflops as a possibility for a PS6, which doesn't sound like a lot, but at the same time, the GPU architecture will maybe be quite different.

GPU architectures in 2028 could probably go all in on ray and path tracing, by dedicating a huge amount of silicon to just that, even more than what Nvidia is doing now.

So a barely marketable 2x increase in teraflops numbers, but a 10x increase in tracing acceleration.

They need big numbers to market their next console, but big teraflops increases are not possible anymore due to silicon costs.
 
So near 50Tflops then?
about 1/2 that since double fp32 submission has never netted 2x flop increase.

So 25TF.

About 2x of XSX today, and a little under 2x what 5Pro should be, assuming they manage to get to 15-16ish. With much more emphasis on accelerators.
 
There's far more HW implementations out there that have competent compute/raster pipelines which continue getting feature advancements like GPU-driven rendering while RT has had no standardized API functionality updates for a long time now ...

GPU driven rendering is nice but is currently vaporware. I’m sure we will see multiple RT improvements from all vendors before GPU driven rendering takes off. Not sure why you’re framing them as competing technologies.

Don't make it sound like me being some proponent for divergent graphics architecture design is equivalent to someone having NIH syndrome ... (just reuse things that work well like raster/compute while replacing things that's not working well like RT)

Well that’s just wrong. Clearly raster doesn’t work well at all for GI. RT also relies heavily on compute.

Neither AMD nor the console vendors truly have anything to lose at this point by diverging from PC graphics. If they do decide to go the full way of a console "carve out" then AMD will have protected the console market from coverging with PCs for their partners all the while self perpetuating the existence of their graphics business to be able to survive based on that carve out ...

Custom console hardware would be a lot more exciting than the current “mini PC” configs. I’m not sure AMD is the one to deliver that though. How will they pay for it?
 
If bandwidth consumption is such a concern with deferred shading then forward rendering is always an option and you can combine that approach with deferred texturing if you want to save on overdraw too. No matter how you slice it, both are solved problems while there's no good answer to the memory indirections for ray tracing ...
How would you do screen-space GI with pure forward rendering, I wonder, without rendering the thin g-buffer first? It doesn't matter whether you're doing forward or deferred texturing, you still need some kind of acceleration structure for the tracing, be it a g-buffer, SDFs, or whatever else. Stochastic sampling with tracing won't be cache friendly no matter what you're tracing, and good luck with searching for and inventing new ways of rendering GI, reflections, etc., without tracing.

GPUs have texture caches and a varying occupancy model to easily hide this memory latency. Good luck doing this for ray tracing where spilling (rip perf) is common and most architectures have highly sensitive memory hierarchies ...
Texture caches are tiny, especially on some architectures, so they are not a panacea. They won't help much if you need to trace through all screen pixels. Register spilling with RT is not a problem when the software is properly designed, except maybe for some architectures that do traversal in software and require more registers for the additional traversal kernels.

Only for the cubemap itself which doesn't solve the elephant in the room itself of needing to render to the dynamic cubemap during runtime which involves using a very expensive BVH to trace rays and shade against ...
BVH is comparable in cost to a depth prepass, G-buffer fill, shadow fill, or other raster passes, and it may cost even less. Many would rather get rid of some raster passes rather than BVH. And you're suggesting adding even more raster passes for planar reflections on steroids, etc., which is ridiculous when you mention the BVH cost. At least BVH is unified, and you can replace a lot of raster passes with it, preferably all of them in the near future, I hope.

Unless console holders have gone crazy, I have a hard time imagining them wanting to make games even more technically complex and difficult to develop with even more different raster subsystems to keep in sync with each other. Sony sleeps and dreams of developing games in half the time and cost, not the other way around. So, all those fantasies about creating custom raster hardware for all cases in life (reflections, shadows, and whatever else) are unrealistic not just from a technical standpoint but also have zero practical viability.

I'm not sure if you understand the idea behind GoW Ragnarok's cubemaps which is to have them exactly pre-rendered for quick look ups during RT ... (a cheap static BVH with only 12 triangles)
I wasn't talking about their solution at all.

doesn't mean there aren't any RT specific HW states otherwise how do you explain the acceleration structure property restrictions, different RT shader stages, or the predefined ray-triangle intersection rules ?
There have always been restrictions and rules for rendering correctness. What do they have to do with pipeline states and their hardware costs?

If you say there are no special HW states for RT then why does Nvidia encourage graphics programmers to use SER which are only available with ray generation shaders instead of true function calls and have no extension for traversal shaders ?
Well, maybe because this is how it fits best for the SER realisation. You're really just guessing and grasping at straws here. It says nothing about the hardware states or anything else.

There's far more HW implementations out there that have competent compute/raster pipelines which continue getting feature advancements like GPU-driven rendering while RT has had no standardized API functionality updates for a long time now ...
These mostly come from pastgen consoles, where PC have always lagged in this regard due to more powerful hardware (CPU/GPU), standardization hell, and fewer requirements for console style optimizations, which typically come at the expense of GPU performance and stability on PC. It's no secret that RT was late to the party for current gen consoles, so consoles didn't push the development of RT much for many reasons, as they have too weak RT HW to change something on PC. Once more performant RT solutions are available on consoles, which are expected by the end of the year, people will start to care more about supporting new advancements on PC as well.
 
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Wherever the PS6 will be, I don't think they will market teraflops and raster power. I can see 30 teraflops as a possibility for a PS6, which doesn't sound like a lot, but at the same time, the GPU architecture will maybe be quite different.
There was rummors about PS5 Pro will be 30 Tflops, for PS6 this sound very low especially for 2027 or 2028 release.

So a barely marketable 2x increase in teraflops numbers, but a 10x increase in tracing acceleration.
This will be enough to calculate polygons in next gen games? Because I don't think industry will go so much for tracing before 2030 and that means what a lot of Tflops will be needed for pixel effects and postprocessing. And next gen should offer 8k or significant graphics improvements in next consoles, otherwise that will be like half gen upgrade.

They need big numbers to market their next console, but big teraflops increases are not possible anymore due to silicon costs.
That will be near 50 billion transistors for SOC, not very much for end of 2026. In PC GPUs that was 2 years ago, will be 3 in november and if next XBox will be released in 2026, that will be 5 years. Sound very real.

Of course this is just my opinion. :)

That sounds worse that XBox One with 1.3 Tflops in 2013. :) If THat realy will be this way, then that will be huge disapointment.
 
There was rummors about PS5 Pro will be 30 Tflops, for PS6 this sound very low especially for 2027 or 2028 release.


This will be enough to calculate polygons in next gen games? Because I don't think industry will go so much for tracing before 2030 and that means what a lot of Tflops will be needed for pixel effects and postprocessing. And next gen should offer 8k or significant graphics improvements in next consoles, otherwise that will be like half gen upgrade.


That will be near 50 billion transistors for SOC, not very much for end of 2026. In PC GPUs that was 2 years ago, will be 3 in november and if next XBox will be released in 2026, that will be 5 years. Sound very real.

Of course this is just my opinion. :)


That sounds worse that XBox One with 1.3 Tflops in 2013. :) If THat realy will be this way, then that will be huge disapointment.
PS5 pro is more like 16-17 teraflops, if we use the same measurement as the PS5.

The problem in increasing raster capabilities is that we are are hitting diminishing returns on raster fidelity that ray tracing can handle much more gracefully.

It doesn't matter if, compared to PC graphic cards those numbers are disappointing next to a 5090 or something, because cost per transistor isn't going down, and console have to contain costs to remain affordable.
 
PS5 pro is more like 16-17 teraflops, if we use the same measurement as the PS5.
DF state 33.5 TF but I presume that's max. They say, "With 33.5 teraflops of compute performance vs the 10.23TF of the standard PS5."

Edit: reading a bit more - "Sony itself says in its developer disclosures that the actual throughput boost in gaming applications is around 45 percent." TF counts are getting less relevant as a metric.
Wherever the PS6 will be, I don't think they will market teraflops and raster power.
Rays per second! Whatever, I expect new numbers and ways to wrangle them to obscene figures. 800 trillion gate switches per second!
 
It doesn't matter if, compared to PC graphic cards those numbers are disappointing next to a 5090 or something, because cost per transistor isn't going down, and console have to contain costs to remain affordable.
At some point consoles will becom non affordable. Like that was with top smartphones. But I thisnk there is solution. 25 Tflops in 2026 sounds good for Series S replacement at price $399, but MS also can make Series X replacement with 50 Tflops at $599 or even $649. At that will be ok, I wait for some premium console for some years but that should be at launch. Otherwise MS will leave only low-end choice for everyone. But some people want at least mid range at not all of them want buy gaming PC. And gaming PC will be a lot higher price that even mid range console.
 
There was rummors about PS5 Pro will be 30 Tflops, for PS6 this sound very low especially for 2027 or 2028 release.
We are dividing the TF in half due to the dual FP32 submission that is doubling the number but practically hasn’t shown any benefit yet.

5Pro should be about 15-16TF. And the next generation consoles should be about 25-30. You can double those numbers if you’d like. But performance wise compared to current gen consoles, you will want to divide in half to get a better ballpark idea.
 
5Pro should be about 15-16TF. And the next generation consoles should be about 25-30. You can double those numbers if you’d like. But performance wise compared to current gen consoles, you will want to divide in half to get a better ballpark idea.
I got really confused here. So that would be 30-32 and 50-60 in terms of PS5 and XSX or what? :)
 
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