I agree with Joker, Kinect is more likely to emulate the Wii's success than Move, I can see Kinect being on Good Morning America and various other chat shows, while the Move is sort of a 'me too' system and casual's dont really care about tech specs and increased precision.
Kinect represents a paradigm shift, there's little doubt that the next generation of motion control systems from all 3 will include depth sensing optics.
However, I also don't think that we will see many Kinect titles to appeal to core gamers, at least not soon, in the future perhaps we'll get some avant garde Kinect titles like Heavy Rain or something.
But Kinect won't be offering a viable alternative to the controller for core gamers, unlike Sony's Move which already seems to work just fine in SOCOM, KZ3 etc.
So for core gamers, Kinect will most likely offer two things: UI and Live enhancements (like voice commands, video chat etc.) or core games with Kinect enhancements, like Fable 3 and Forza 4.
Now, this is actually a very good proposition as Kinect can bring new things to the table and even improve the controller based scheme of these titles. For example, manipulating objects in the game world, pointing to give tactical orders, mo cap for machinima, Kinect equivalents of QTEs or just to add more or streamline controls where there aren't enough buttons (eg. instead of pressing a button to cycle through different pieces of equipment/abilities you can just say it's name - very useful in for stuff like magic in games like Oblvion or Fable).
While the Kinect enabled racing gameplay shown off in Forza might only appeal to casuals, the virtual garage feature where you can walk around your car was pretty impressive and will be welcomed by Forza fans, similarily if a Halo title let you place objects using Kinect in Forge it would bring something new to the existing controller scheme. (BTW can Kinect detect you opening and closing your hands? like a grab gesture?)
The BIG problem with this - and one i've been highlighting for a long time - is unlike Move, adding Kinect support incurs a substantial performance cost, 10 to 15% of total system resources (not just CPU time), this is especially significant as the 360 is nearing the end of its lifecycle and developers need every last bit of power.
This kind of performance hit, will definitely affect Kinect integration into traditional games (Halo Reach seems to have been one of the first victims) and is a consequence of MS severely paring back the spec on the Kinect hardware (no onboard processor, MP to VGA res downgrade, 30hz instead of 60hz capture etc.).
And the thing still costs $150!
It's a pity MS is more interested in making a quick buck from selling cameras rather than trying to get the tech into as many hands as possible and reap the benefits in the longer term.
Kinect may well be a success and broaden the 360 userbase, but I can't help but think MS's decision to kill the onboard processing was a lost opportunity to entice core gamers as well.