I also don't place too much stock in these consumer interest surveys... ;-)
There may not be sufficient info or incentive to answer properly.
On the other hand i would say that in some ways i don't really believe that Sony needs to invest too much in marketing Move as something other than a Wii-like experience. At the end of the day there are 70+million households in the world who enjoy the Wii experience, and come this fall Sony will be the only platform holder able to offer both a similar and familiar Wii-like experience, alongside the big HD graphics and amazing core games that they're pumping out.
In my view, which may very well be downright wrong...
If that's the case, they are only selling largely to existing PS3 owners. They'd need to excite people to buy a new PS3 vs buying one more Wii game. Without a strong draw, existing Wii owners are likely to have more faith in Nintendo products because their products are more familiar and have more mindshare (switching cost is quite high).
The possible push factors are HD and software library (for older kids/adults). I think Sony mentioned that about 10-20% of Nintendo console owners "upgraded" to Sony consoles last gens.
For these upgraders and potential new customers in fall 2010, Sony will need to differentiate from Natal. If Natal can inspire the consumers more, Sony will lag. This would be a pure marketing battle, followed by how good the experience is after sales.
Looking at how MS executes, they have been targeting the mass consumers while Sony continues to target existing gamers and technophiles (with tech demoes and articles). Coupled with the inherently more drastic experiences, MS may have already won the marketing war for casuals -- unless Sony pulls out something out of the left field in E3.
Sony's 3D push will appeal only to core gamers and technophiles, and later, general consumers over a longer time horizon. In the same vein, Blu-ray will do the same for more consumers. In other words, Sony is taking a marathon approach again. It seems that as long as they continue to be profitable and grow a satisfied user base, I think they may be contented.
Sony doesn't really need to capture the hardcore or worry too much about differentiating their product in my view, so long as they with their stable of top-teir world-class devs can produce compelling software for Move that can't be found anywhere else, and can appeal to both the core and casual gamer, then I believe that Move will find some good success.
Yes, this is the after sales and word of mouth part though. They will be subjected to MS's marketing blitz and if not careful, they will be branded as an inferior or outdated tech (together with Wii) regardless of the actual offerings.
Technologically however, Move IS inherently a rather different product than the Wii-mote and therefore regardless of what happens, it will only be a matter of time before the creative minds in the industry start making really unique and compelling software.
Most consumers simply see a wagging stick and their favorite casual games. From this perspective, if Sony doesn't show anything new and big, they may be perceived as a "Just like Wii" HD console even if it's inherently a rather different product.
EDIT:
[size=-2]Sony's 3D move will set PS3 apart as a future-proof console again though. Would have preferred Sony to focus on just one thing.[/size]
