NVIDIA Supply Chain Speculation

I just think most of Nvidia's wafer allocation is for GB100 dies and they want to fulfill those orders first. Remember there was an alleged Blackwell slip/issue about 6 months ago. It's possible that had an impact on wafer allocation.

That theory makes the most sense to me. If they had really shifted all Lovelace wafers to GeForce Blackwell they would’ve had more supply at launch since Lovelace has been tapering off for months now.
 
John wants to pay you $500 for a pencil. Jack wants to pay you $5,000 for a pencil.

Who would you sell the pencil to?
I would sell two pieces of broken pencil, Getting $5500. After that I would sell duct tape with another $500 to Jack, who obviously wanted the pencil so bad that bought from John his half with extra $750.
I would end up with +$6000, John end up with +$250 (but no pencil, still quite happy though) and Jack would be extremely happy and accomplished with his brand new DE (Duct tape Edition) Pencil. :)
 
GB100 is limited by COWOS, not wafers.
And the volume of production there even at current peak demand isn't really comparable to gaming GPUs.
The reason why newly launched cards are scarce is because they are newly launched. It is happening literally every time.
And the old cards are drained because new cards are coming at very similar perf/price.
 
The reason why newly launched cards are scarce is because they are newly launched. It is happening literally every time.
Not to this extent. For example OCUK had under 10 RTX 5090s week before launch and said at best they'll have double that at launch. Now they've said it'll be from 3 to 16 weeks before they get next shipments
 
Not to this extent. For example OCUK had under 10 RTX 5090s week before launch and said at best they'll have double that at launch. Now they've said it'll be from 3 to 16 weeks before they get next shipments
It was the same with 4090, 3090, 2080Ti and 1080 prior to that. In fact 1080s were nowhere to be found for about two months after launch.
The only big difference this time is the empty inventories on prior gen parts - we've been through a couple of gen switches which came at the end of mining supply overload which meant that you could've gotten a new GPU from the previous generation easily - and with a discount likely. No such "luck" this time. The supply will get better over the next month and will probably be completely full on everything (aside from 5090 in the US possibly) by the end of Spring.
This whole idea that you must get a new GPU on launch day is just weird. Especially when said GPU isn't bringing much in terms of perf/price.
 
It was the same with 4090, 3090, 2080Ti and 1080 prior to that. In fact 1080s were nowhere to be found for about two months after launch.
The only big difference this time is the empty inventories on prior gen parts - we've been through a couple of gen switches which came at the end of mining supply overload which meant that you could've gotten a new GPU from the previous generation easily - and with a discount likely. No such "luck" this time. The supply will get better over the next month and will probably be completely full on everything (aside from 5090 in the US possibly) by the end of Spring.
This whole idea that you must get a new GPU on launch day is just weird. Especially when said GPU isn't bringing much in terms of perf/price.
No it wasn't.
4090 - nearly 1000 at launch https://forums.overclockers.co.uk/t...be-reviews-no-competitor-discussion.18960249/
3090 - can't find solid info, no similar post but he expected good volume https://forums.overclockers.co.uk/t...e-at-overclockers-uk-3090-3080-3070.18897451/
Couldn't find similar posts for older gens on quick search
 
The eBay listings are eye watering. Lots of 5090’s selling for $6000. One Astral sold for $12000. Scalper heaven. Imagine your $12000 card getting bricked by a driver update :D

I can understand people wanting it bad but that's just excessive. I feel rather privileged I was able to buy the entire SYSTEM on launch day for way less than that $6000.

That's including the fastest 5090 out there, X870 mobo, Ryzen 9800X3D, 64GB of DDR5 6000 CL30 DRAM, 2TB Samsung SSD, 1000W Corsair PSU, Peerless Assassin cooler and a Fractal North XL case.
 
I am starting to think the 5090/5080 scarcity issue is related to China restrictions and tariffs, how is the availability situation in China regarding these cards? It's very likely that NVIDIA prioritized all 5090D and 5080 shipments to China because after the tariffs they won't be able to ship high end GPUs there easily (or at all).
Paper launch. Produce an absolutely pathetic amount of 50 series GPUs, go out of stock instantly with weeks of expected delays to get shipments... so everyone can jack up their prices to "earn a little money off these terribly low margin GPUs Nvidia has produced".. which will remain exceedingly high for the duration of the generation.

$3000+ USD for a GPU.. lmao. PC industry is screwed.
 
Paper launch. Produce an absolutely pathetic amount of 50 series GPUs, go out of stock instantly with weeks of expected delays to get shipments... so everyone can jack up their prices to "earn a little money off these terribly low margin GPUs Nvidia has produced".. which will remain exceedingly high for the duration of the generation.

$3000+ USD for a GPU.. lmao. PC industry is screwed.

I mean Nvidia did say months ago that supply was going to be tight. Give it a couple of months.
 
Well yea, they knew what they were going to do.. lmao. Give it another couple months and the price will go up another $200-300..

I just don’t think it’s some nefarious plot. I mean GPUs and CPUs have had supply issues early in their lives for decades now.

 
I mean Nvidia did say months ago that supply was going to be tight. Give it a couple of months.
I just don’t think it’s some nefarious plot. I mean GPUs and CPUs have had supply issues early in their lives for decades now.

You're trying to play it like it's just "normal low supply at the beginning". It's not, nowhere near.
Like pointed out earlier, biggest(?) UK retailer had week before launch under 10 RTX 5090's and believed at max they'll double that by launch day. In comparison they had around 1000 4090's at launch which, aggording to Degustator was in short supply too, Now they're saying it's going to take 3-16 weeks for new supply to arrive.
And they're not an outlier, similar numbers are reported everywhere with resupplies weeks away, aside of MSI 5090's which didn't even start selling yet, they're starting today.
 
You're trying to play it like it's just "normal low supply at the beginning". It's not, nowhere near.
Like pointed out earlier, biggest(?) UK retailer had week before launch under 10 RTX 5090's and believed at max they'll double that by launch day. In comparison they had around 1000 4090's at launch which, aggording to Degustator was in short supply too, Now they're saying it's going to take 3-16 weeks for new supply to arrive.
And they're not an outlier, similar numbers are reported everywhere with resupplies weeks away, aside of MSI 5090's which didn't even start selling yet, they're starting today.

In this world of evil conspiracies, what’s the benefit to Nvidia? Less profit? Reputation hit?
 
In this world of evil conspiracies, what’s the benefit to Nvidia? Less profit? Reputation hit?
Who knows why they launched when they did, they certainly didn't have to and card availability tells straight they shouldn't have. There's no need for conspiracies, abysmal supply is a fact seen all around the world and NVIDIA themselves warned about tight supply.
 
There are a few fake listings but most of them are from reputable long term sellers. I’m going to assume most of the buyers aren’t scammers who would risk losing $6000 on an eBay dispute. Also if buyer scams were a common thing then scalpers wouldn’t be posting on eBay.

Just to clarify I'm referring to any issues with the cards post purchase such as the example of bricking the card via a driver update.
 
Who knows why they launched when they did, they certainly didn't have to and card availability tells straight they shouldn't have. There's no need for conspiracies, abysmal supply is a fact seen all around the world and NVIDIA themselves warned about tight supply.

TSMC 5/4/3 nm production is fully booked for the entire year. Is Nvidia just supposed to not come out with any new products until TSMC fabs are freed up?
 
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