NPD October 2008

[woundingchaney]

My primary problem with the potential success of LBP is simply that the consumer demographic of the PS3 itself does not consist of user group that LBP targets. An add campaign revolving around the concept of "FUN" doesnt necessarily trip the trigger of the hardcore gamers and media buffs that own the PS3. Ideally the demographic that LBP seems to be targeted to is currently primarily interested in the competitions offerings. The entire concept of the game itself screams casual play yet it is appearing on a 400+ USD console and is a very challenging/difficult game in its own right. I dont doubt that PR disasters and delays hampered the titles ability to sell but it had a considerable amount of hurdles to overcome outside of these issues. Along with everything else the game is releasing amongst possibly the strongest third party line-up that I can personally recall.

Ultimately I expect the title to sell 1 million+ over the holidays but definitely not be the "barn burner" that interenet expectations would of led us to believe.

 

[patsu]

Sony has said they will market LBP as a brand rather than just a game. So there will be income from other streams.

For now, the console price will limit its impact on the broader market. But they could bundle the game with the console later on (after price drop) to drive sales. This is purely my speculation. By that time, it should have matured more.

 

[Refreshment]

Very concerned with Dead Space sells performance.

Wanted to see EA rewarded with its new IP posture. And now im having a hard time seeing Mirror's Edge performing any better than this.

 

[TrungGap]

assert(LBP != VivaPinata, "sad situation");

If LBP follows Viva Pinata in sales, this it's a shame...both of titles deserve better.

 

[obonicus]

Actually, has there been a huge media campaign for LBP? I was under the impression that Sony has been fairly understated so far, with people hoping for more from the future, as usual (Sony will bring big ads for Christmas!).

It may be that Sony wants to cultivate a good library of levels before they start pursuing the general public. The people who had the title on their radars since GDC 2007 likely are the ones who were going to publish levels. Still, bad economy and $400 console is going to hurt general appeal.

 

[BadTB25]

I've seen LBP commercials on several channels, so from my POV it's not from lack of advertisements. It could also be because some retailers under-stocked (my local Best Buy was sold out and Gamestop only had 3 on hand).

I've yet to pick up my copy and a one of big PS3 fan friend hasn't as well. I think that LBP could have fell victim to the too many good games at this time problem.
I will pick it up...eventually.

 

[NavNucST3]

Very concerned with Dead Space sells performance.

Wanted to see EA rewarded with its new IP posture. And now im having a hard time seeing Mirror's Edge performing any better than this.

Dead Space needs a demo there is no reason it should not have at least matched BioShock first month numbers.

 

[ninzel]

Very concerned with Dead Space sells performance.

Wanted to see EA rewarded with its new IP posture. And now im having a hard time seeing Mirror's Edge performing any better than this.

What we expect to be good performance might be different than what EA expects. They are not new to this game and while they would obviously hope for the most sales possible,they might have fully expected a less than stellar first outing. They probably recognize that establishing new IP is difficult and see this more as a long term project with better sales coming from sequels. Each sequel that equal or betters the previous one will enhance the IP's reputation and with it bring more sales. I'm glad they chose to take the risk. Dead Space was a fantastic horror/action game that seems to have gained a very good reputation amongst hard core gamers and I expect future sequels will do better.

 

[AlNom]

What we expect to be good performance might be different than what EA expects. They are not new to this game and while they would obviously hope for the most sales possible,they might have fully expected a less than stellar first outing. They probably recognize that establishing new IP is difficult and see this more as a long term project with better sales coming from sequels.

Any idea on the development cost for the game (presumably including all platforms)? The 193K figure for the 360 may not be so bad when taking into account world wide sales on all three platforms (just not stellar, har har). On the other hand, their recent spate of horse-armour DLC leaves me to wonder about their strategy for the game.

 

[ninzel]

Any idea on the development cost for the game (presumably including all platforms)? The 193K figure for the 360 may not be so bad when taking into account world wide sales on all three platforms (just not stellar, har har). On the other hand, their recent spate of horse-armour DLC leaves me to wonder about their strategy for the game.

I have no idea of the costs but it seems to have rather high production values so...
If EA were a small dev putting out only a game or two every year I don't think my theory would fit,(every game would have to count)but EA NEEDS to make games like this not only for the sales itself but for the ripple effect it can have on their entire catalogue due to an improve image and credibility amongst the avid gamer. While they won't like it to be sales failure they are more able to shoulder that loss in the interest of a bigger strategy.I don't know about any one else,but I'm certainly looking at EA differently these days. Plus as you said the DLC will help. I played the entire game and enjoyed it just fine without the need for the extra DLC. So the way they handled it(entirely optional and timing) seems fair to me.

 

[obonicus]

Any idea on the development cost for the game (presumably including all platforms)? The 193K figure for the 360 may not be so bad when taking into account world wide sales on all three platforms (just not stellar, har har). On the other hand, their recent spate of horse-armour DLC leaves me to wonder about their strategy for the game.

You have to remember that this is October. I don't think it's safe to assume that it's essentially done, considering the holidays are coming up and it doesn't have much competition in the horror genre right now.

 

[joker454]

I agree sales have been surprisingly low to advocates of LBP's appeal like me, but I'm also hesitant to draw a conclusion yet because of the whole release date and PR scew-ups. It's appeal with 'casuals' is definitely there when they're exposed to LBP. The question is why is it not selling? Because the existing user base is more interested in the conventional games at the mo'? Quite possibly. There's a lot of competition here! Or because of PR blunders, and reports of deleted levels, or total dross on the user created stuff? I was having this discussion with my mate about what LBP has got wrong and how it may impact their appeal. The game probably have done with a few months extra work. Whether they can turn it around or not, I don't know. But also the potential for turnarounds here is unprecedented, because they can add to the experience to build way more stuff and gameplay changing elements, beyond the usual extra guns and levels of typical DLC. It might experience long term growth. It might not. Too early to call. But the lack of a surge of interest at launch must be a disappointment to Sony.

I think the game was targeted wrong. I keep hearing how it's a 'casual' game on this forum and elsewhere, but I think it's far too hard for casual players. I bought it believing it was for casuals and let me tell you, there is no way in hell my wife will be able to play this game, it definitely needs a gamers hand/eye coordination and patience. So you are left with a game that looks cute and is targeted at casuals (who I don't think will be able to play it), and hence becomes more likely to be passed over by gamers (who I think would actually enjoy it).

It's also like everyone else says, there's just too many good games available right now. I have LBP and I like it, but I haven't played it for a while because I'm too busy with another 8+ titles that I like better. I bought it anyways since I can get PS3 games for $10, but most people will probably just wait until they are done with other games first.

In any case, LBP is a unique game so it should have a longer shelf life than most games, meaning it'll be clocking in sales for a long time. It's also a natural pack-in title. It might take a while, but it'll hit 800k+ sales eventually.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I think the game was targeted wrong. I keep hearing how it's a 'casual' game on this forum and elsewhere, but I think it's far too hard for casual players.

This conversation came up in the LBP game thread. It is hard, too hard by conventioanl reckoning, but non-gamers who find it hard still seem to have lots of fun. When you don't care about failing, it can be good. I do think the standard levels missed the trick - heck the whole game is well short of its innate potential - but I don't think it excludes anyone. It just needs to grow a lot, and fast if Sony want to make the most of it. I don't see it shifting much by way of boxes though, not at the moment, because I don't think it has a particularly public positive vibe post-launch.

 

[Refreshment]

You have to remember that this is October. I don't think it's safe to assume that it's essentially done, considering the holidays are coming up and it doesn't have much competition in the horror genre right now.

But lets look at the other side of the coin. We should consider that there will be a lot of new games fighting for consumers attention these holidays. Btw, not saying the game is done, just saying that so far it wasn't rewarded with consumers attention as must as it deserves.

To ninzel:
I really like your comments, they are very reasonable and agree with the essence of them.

Yet i dont think EA is pleased with that NPD figure, it is after all a high production venture. As you said games like these are very valuable because they solidify the catalog and improve the general perception among users. But EA right now is not in its best shape financially, so possible lukewarm results for these new IP's mine their strategy.

Is just a pessimistic mood since i fear Mirror's Edge gets buried in the november avalanche.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

I recall reading somewhere that Dead Space sold 1 million units already.
Then again my memory is kinda messed nowadays, been buys with lots of things...

 

[ninzel]

To ninzel:
I really like your comments, they are very reasonable and agree with the essence of them.

Yet i dont think EA is pleased with that NPD figure, it is after all a high production venture. As you said games like these are very valuable because they solidify the catalog and improve the general perception among users. But EA right now is not in its best shape financially, so possible lukewarm results for these new IP's mine their strategy.

Is just a pessimistic mood since i fear Mirror's Edge gets buried in the november avalanche.

My thinking is due in part to the fact that there has already been talk of a sequel(and other tie ins)which is different than the wait and see approach before planning a sequel. They seem to have really invested in this IP. Let's just hope the sals pick up over the holidays and they don't get cold feet.

 

[Brimstone]

The Rayman Raving Rabbids franchise has made a bigger impact with casual consummers than Little Big Planet.

The Raving Rabbids are funny and quirky.

 

[obonicus]

The Rayman Raving Rabbids franchise has made a bigger impact with casual consummers than Little Big Planet.

The Raving Rabbids are funny and quirky.

Yes, certainly. It's sold more copies. We're discussing potential impact. I've always had doubts about LBP's longevity, but I thought it could be accomplished if Sony played its cards right (which is a lot to ask of a company, apparently).

 

[tha_con]

Honestly, if you own LBP, and a PS3, and you're not showing it to your friends, you're failing.

I've had a few times where people in my house have huddled up and played LBP for a while, and found it really enjoyable.

Honestly, the sales don't really matter, many games have shown that the dedicated hardcore will stick around for years, and I dont' see LBP being any different. We will still see amazing levels coming in the next 24 months, so getting your panties in a bunch about sales is a little silly.

Not to mention MM has probably hit the bank smiling already, because SHIPPED is what matters to them, and retailers bought lots of copies, and with a studio as small as theirs, I'm sure it was good for them.

 

[grandmaster]

I think LBP and Pinata simply prove that Sony and Microsoft just don't 'get' the mainstream games market in the same way that Nintendo does. Both are titles geared towards an audience away from their core markets, and yet both possess gameplay mechanics or features that the mainstream market doesn't understand or isn't attracted to.

The whole user-generated content thing strikes a chord with the core gamer, but for the mainstream user who probably doesn't even connect the PS3 online, it's a total non-starter.

Both of these games are core titles with 'casual' cosmetics and nobody is fooled.

On the plus side, as word spreads, I'm sure the longevity of LBP will be better than many games, but I think it's safe to say that it's not a system seller and won't 'break' PS3 out of its core audience - just as Pinata failed in this regard on 360.