Nintendo 3DS business/general talk *spin-off feat. 3DS as a P.I. in New Orleans

[Arwin]

Although I don't disagree with your conclusions necessarily, there are some obvious flaws in your argument though:

- price: I got my iPhone from work. My wife got my iPhone from me. This will go for many people now. I just heard on the radio most students from 16 years upwards get an iPhone from their parents. Then there is the iPod Touch, which is much much cheaper and is also still popular as an iTunes+ device (high-end iPod), but on average the Touch is around 179 euro, which is a fair bit cheaper than the DS.

- controls: the iOS devices have more than just touch. They have front to back cameras and motion sensing.

- quality: I agree to some extent, but in my personal view the lack of quality is fairly well compensated for by sheer quantity, variety and originality.

That said, I'm also convinced that in many cases we could well be better off with a tiny iPod for walkman purposes, a tiny little phone that lasts forever for just calling/standby, a moderately bulky hand-held gaming device, and a tablet for couch browsing. I don't necessarily see everything converge ad infinitum.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

I don't know for kids getting iphones but my guess is that atleast in Holland your average family isn't going to spend 500+ euro's on a phone for their kids. But it might be different abroad. Still it's not about absolute numbers alone as a phone is generally not bought with gaming high on the list.

Controls: A camera and motion sensing still don't make for a control scheme you will play any of the games I mentioned with.

Quality: Even if you had a thousend different shit sandwiches that look and taste ''unique'', you will still rather have that one not so special looking but delicous sandwich right? I don't agree that quantity can make up for quality. Ofcourse, on any system there are shit games that manage to sell tons but I think you need a strong line up of quality games for a system to survive.

 

[Rangers]

That is just because of market saturation.

How is it saturation when the 3DS is a brand new system? In that case DS would have sold diddly because of GBA.

I'm not convinced phones are going to decimate handhelds or anything, dont get me wrong. But 3DS's lackluster launch has started making me wonder a little bit.

Also, just look at Nintendo's share price. A few years ago it was at $75, and now last I looked it was $32. A lot of it is the perception among investors that Apple is eating their lunch and that it will increase.

Really I dont feel that strongly about this issue mind you, I could see myself easily arguing the other side in a different thread

Here's some other interesting facts:

-Smartphones annually increase power 3-5X. How is a dedicated handheld going to come close to keeping up? Especially one as already aged as the 3DS.
-Projected 2.5 billion smartphones sold worldwide between now and 2015.

Nintendo shipped 1.5m 3DS to Japan, and have sold just over half, 836k, so far. At current rates, it's going to be a very long, slow slog to even sell that initial shipment. Then you have the embarrassing fact many are popping up used in shops already.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

How is it saturation when the 3DS is a brand new system? In that case DS would have sold diddly because of GBA.

Because you quoted DS/PSP numbers, not 3DS numbers Obviously the 3DS has different reasons for not selling. Relative high price, and no games to justify the price are probably the main reasons.

I'm not convinced phones are going to decimate handhelds or anything, dont get me wrong. But 3DS's lackluster launch has started making me wonder a little bit.

It was the same for the DS. I think its more important to look at why something isn't selling instead of just looking at numbers alone. If the 3DS would have been 150 euro's with a ton of good games and it still wouldnt sell than there would be reason to worry. The current situation isnt good either but its understandable. Compare it to the ps3. Initially it sold crap for quite some time. Now there are more ps3's sold than x360.

Also, just look at Nintendo's share price. A few years ago it was at $75, and now last I looked it was $32. A lot of it is the perception among investors that Apple is eating their lunch and that it will increase.

Now I don't know much about finacial markets but are stock prices really such a good view of what a company is worth and money being made? Not that long ago the only company in Japan worth more than Nintendo was Toyota. I doubt that was a realistic representation of Nintendo's true value. Certainly between than and now nothing happend to suggest Nintendo would suddenly be worth more than 50% less.

Really I dont feel that strongly about this issue mind you, I could see myself easily arguing the other side in a different thread

No problem. But I wish that the people why argue that handhelds could be dying would come up with some better arguments. That is what bothers me. People who don't agree come up with arguments while those that do think so don't.

-Smartphones annually increase power 3-5X. How is a dedicated handheld going to come close to keeping up? Especially one as already aged as the 3DS.

They wont. But they don't have to. First of all I doubt smartphones get faster 3-5x every 12 months. My htc legend isn't 3 times faster than my touch diamond I bought 2 years ago. My friends htc hd2 also isnt 3 times slower than my other friend his desire HD. Actually, now that we flashed android to the hd2 some things actually seem to work smoother than on the desire hd.

Back to the point, handhelds don't have to be the fastest. History has thought us power isnt the most important. Secondly handhelds need to be affordable. And last, even though modern phones are much, much faster than the DS, how many smartphones games are out there that really look better than DS games? If you take the psp into the comparison the argument becames pretty much totally invalid with the odd exception.

If power would really be the most imporant thing, we would all be gaming on pc.

Projected 2.5 billion smartphones sold worldwide between now and 2015.

Its not about absolute numbers. If you sell 100 million handhelds as a developer you know there is a potential market of 100 million people who might buy your game. There might be 25 times as many smartphones but the majority of those phones isnt bought with gaming high on the list. If you want to make a high budget game, where would you go?

As a developer you need to take into account all the different hardware platforms opposed to just 1 or 2 handheld platforms. You will always need to develop for the lowest hardware platform if you want to reach that 2.5b market. But this means you are quite limited in what you can do. Like I said, a htc wildfire won't even run angry birds or radiant at decent speeds and that are games that could be done on GBA. So that might but off people who want some more meat to their game. And ofcourse like I said above, you don't know what % of those people play games on their smartphone. Add in the reasons I mentioned in my first post and numbers alone dont mean everything I think.

 

[lwill]

How is it saturation when the 3DS is a brand new system? In that case DS would have sold diddly because of GBA.

I'm not convinced phones are going to decimate handhelds or anything, dont get me wrong. But 3DS's lackluster launch has started making me wonder a little bit.

Also, just look at Nintendo's share price. A few years ago it was at $75, and now last I looked it was $32. A lot of it is the perception among investors that Apple is eating their lunch and that it will increase.

Really I dont feel that strongly about this issue mind you, I could see myself easily arguing the other side in a different thread

Here's some other interesting facts:

-Smartphones annually increase power 3-5X. How is a dedicated handheld going to come close to keeping up? Especially one as already aged as the 3DS.
-Projected 2.5 billion smartphones sold worldwide between now and 2015.

Nintendo shipped 1.5m 3DS to Japan, and have sold just over half, 836k, so far. At current rates, it's going to be a very long, slow slog to even sell that initial shipment. Then you have the embarrassing fact many are popping up used in shops already.

The 3DS is capable of graphics that is still impressive for a handheld, so don't think the power of the 3DS will be much of a problem for awhile. Battery life is the more pressing issue to address in portables.

As for concerns about the 3ds current performance, most of this had to do with Nintendo wanting 3rd party developers a chance for their games to be recognized. Pilotwings, for example, has not even been released in Japan yet. Unfortunately, the earthquake in Japan messed things up a bit, and titles like DoA, has been delayed. Alot of third party developers also missed the ball (Madden without multi-player? ), so things will likely slow down a bit before Nintendo decides it's time to take charge.

 

[eastmen]

The end of may brings virtual console for the 3DS . That should boost sales. Also Zelda OOT , Paper mario , Mario 3d , Mario kart will all bring in sales across the world .


Right now there isn't enough games to warrent a purchase of the 3DS . I wanted one dispite the lack of games and right now i'm just playing DS games on it. Alot o fmy friends will pick one up when zelda comes out

 

[dobwal]

Sorry for the sloppy writing but...

Mobile gaming will encoach on handheld gaming very quickly and rapidly. The current model for handheld gaming is a unworkable solution for the future in terms of profit generation, application and marketing.

Lets look at the software profit model on IOS or Android. Don't be fool by free or 99c meaning low quality with no real means of profit generation. Two words...Angry Birds. Its 99c on iOS and free for the add supported version on Android. Back in Dec, it was 12 million in iOS downloads worth about $9 million dollars. Not bad for a $99 app that cost very little to developed in comparsion to more quality handheld titles on the PSP and the DS. But Angry Birds generated $1 million a month in ad sales back when its total LTD worldwide downloads were at 30 million and daily play time was at 65 million minutes a day. Now its up to 40 million downloads at 200 million minutes a day. Ad sales are already a major component in iOS and Android.

Lets look at kids or others where a contract may not be all that appealing. It may not be evident to some of you now but you don't need a smartphone to gain access to the Apple appstore or Google Marketplace. Devices like the Ipod Touch and Ipad along with their Android equivalent makes contracts unnecessary. And the aspect of the iOS and Android that is going to kill the current model for handhelds is diversity.

You can buy an Ipad or a Galaxy S Media for your child not only to play games but give them access to learning apps. You can also give them access to apps to feed their creavity like instruments, drawing, painting and easy as pie video editing movie apps. Now is the Ipad and others spending millions on TV ads spouting such diversity. No. But they don't have to market in such fashion, because they have millions upon millions of smartphone and tablet owners who have direct access to these marketplaces, which market these apps. These devices will market to parents every time they open the marketplaces and appstores on their phones.

Game centric marketing and software is going to kill gaming handhelds unless Nintendo and others learn to adapt and market the diverse applications thats already possible on their devices. Add in the fact that smartphone and tablet markets aren't mature by any means and have tons of potential growth. What will happen when smartphones go from say 10% to 50-60% of the total mobile market and the tablets start moving PC like volumes. The prospect of developing an Angry Birds like app in terms of profit generation is going to be alot higher. And the millions to billions of dollars generated through ad sales and is going to attract alot of developer and publisher investment. The current profit model for handhelds will seem archaic in comparsion.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Sure you can sell angry birds for 99 cents. And sure you can get high sales that way because 99 cents isnt a lot of money so even if it sucks people wont care too much. But angry birds is a very simple game. Even your average GameBoy classic game was more complex than angry birds. So the handheld crow wants more complex games. Do you think the angry birds model would work on a high budget game like GT, FF, monster hunter, zelda etc?

Also, angry birds is just one game. The DS has over a 100 full priced games that sold more than a million.

All the other things you mention could be done just as well on a handheld. Or a pc. Which everyone already has anyway.

But even if a handheld couldnt do that, would it really matter? Handhelds are gaming devices. You buy them to play games. Personally I couldnt care less if my handheld would be suitable for learning, browsing or whatever. I got a phone for that. But my phone sucks at gaming because it aint got no buttons. That is why I would buy a handheld.

 

[AlphaWolf]

I don't believe smartphones/tablets will kill gaming mobiles in the near future, but there's no doubt they are going to diminish them.

 

[Squilliam]

It isn't just smart-phones. I think we need another term to encompass the whole market. At this point you could say 'iOS type' unless anyone cares to come up with a better term and these are all competitors with the 3DS and NGP. I hope theres no argument against the idea that these 'iOS type' devices are going to effect the handheld market to some degree, so I hope theres at least agreement on that! This leaves us at the point where we have to argue about how much they might effect each other.

Provisionally at this point, noone knows how much the iOS type devices are going to change the way that the official handheld consoles like the NGP and 3DS as well as the legacy DS support is going to play out. So what can we say about it? I guess we can start at looking at ways which they compete for the attention of people. I just don't know where to start because as far as I see it if I start anywhere I will basing my analysis on flawed assumptions regardless. Anyone has any ideas?

 

[Entropy]

Provisionally at this point, noone knows how much the iOS type devices are going to change the way that the official handheld consoles like the NGP and 3DS as well as the legacy DS support is going to play out. So what can we say about it? I guess we can start at looking at ways which they compete for the attention of people. I just don't know where to start because as far as I see it if I start anywhere I will basing my analysis on flawed assumptions regardless. Anyone has any ideas?

One thing I've been told by my high-school informants is that lower prices for iOS games in itself changes the gaming for youth. If one of them finds a game that is fun, it spreads like wildfire through the group because they can all pay for the cost of a game (if not free) from their own pocket money. Likewise, playing cooperatively or competitively with your friends is much easier, since they no longer have to come up with 4x$50 (+taxes), but 4*$0.99. Which makes a HUGE difference. Something which used to be almost impossible to set into motion, is now something that can arranged during a break at school.

 

[Xmas]

As for the people who still believe mobile phone gaming is a threat for handheld gaming, could you please give me some good arguments/facts? We've had this discussion a dozen of times already but I never hear any good reason why mobile phone gaming is/will be a threat for handhelds.

No problem. But I wish that the people why argue that handhelds could be dying would come up with some better arguments. That is what bothers me. People who don't agree come up with arguments while those that do think so don't.

Sounds like a perception issue to me. First of all, saying that mobile phone gaming is a threat to dedicated handhelds isn't the same as saying the latter are dying. And several people already mentioned good reasons why mobile phones might take over a part of the market that is currently the domain of dedicated gaming devices.

Gameplay. Your not going to play mario with a touch screen only device. Your not going to play FF with a touch screen only device. Your not going to play GT with a touch screen only device. And that is exactly why there is also a lack of quality games. Anybody serious about gaming wants to play those type of games with decent controls. Not some gimped touchscreen controls that make you lose half the screen size just because it's needed for buttons. Not to mention that is just doesn't work anywhere near as well as buttons.

I really don't like this argument since it seems to imply that either everyone interested in mobile gaming wants to play those types of games, or that there are no games which work better with a touch screen. And neither implication is true.

Also, why wouldn't a FF game work well on a touchscreen only device?

 

[Squilliam]

One thing I've been told by my high-school informants is that lower prices for iOS games in itself changes the gaming for youth. If one of them finds a game that is fun, it spreads like wildfire through the group because they can all pay for the cost of a game (if not free) from their own pocket money. Likewise, playing cooperatively or competitively with your friends is much easier, since they no longer have to come up with 4x$50 (+taxes), but 4*$0.99. Which makes a HUGE difference. Something which used to be almost impossible to set into motion, is now something that can arranged during a break at school.

I guess the other thing is that noone would look down on anyone for bringing an iPod touch or iPhone to school, infact thats probably considered to be 'cool' but bringing a handheld console and especially a DS would probably look kinda nerdish to a lot of kids.

The real challenge for developers here is probably how to further monetise the $.99 or similar game market. Perhaps free to play with extras bought in game might suffice for growing much of the market in terms of overall revenue.

 

[zed]

Expensive. Basically you need atleast a 300 euro phone

expensive? I'ld argue its the cheaper option

option A/
300 euro phone & games at 1-5euros a go

option B/
200 euro phone // nearly every kids already got a phone (& from what Ive seen most are pretty blingy)
PLUS
200 handheld gaming device & games @ ~30euro a pop

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Why does example B has a 200 dollar phone?

Anyway what you forgot to say is that you need to triple the phone costs because it will only last you 2 years if you want to keep playing games on so that is atleast 900 euros over 6 years. And I say atleast because if you look at the current crop of 300 euro phones your not going to play much games on that because they are so slow. Even my htc legend won't run angry birds 100% smooth and that phone still is over 300. Now add the extra costs if you actually want to call/use internet on the phone and it gets even more expensive.

Yeah you save money on the software but lets be honest for a moment. Would you spend more than a dollar on something like angry birds or doodle fucking jump? Stuff like that has been available as flash games for free for years.

Ubishit seems to agree with me:

These are the games that people play to kill time during the 10 minutes when they’re waiting for the bus. For richer, more immersive gaming experiences, the kind people want to take with them and play everywhere they go, the handheld gaming consoles are better, and the demand is still there.

http://www.nowgamer.com/features/1295/nintendo-3ds-ubisoft-interview?o=1#listing

Too bad giving their efforst, or rather the lack of any, on nintendo consoles I probably would rather play a mobile phone game than anything they will release :')

 

[AlphaWolf]

who the hell keeps a phone for more than a few years anyway?

 

[Brad Grenz]

The thing about smartphones is they're things that many people are going to need and/or have anyway, so you can't directly compare pricing to dedicated handhelds. And for people who <i>are</i> price sensitive, there are iPod Touches and Android equivalents.

 

[Squilliam]

But isn't the point of handhelds the 10 minutes on the bus rather than the richer game experiences? So saying that handheld consoles do console type games better when consoles do console type games far better again and you tend to want those experiences when you have a console at hand. The sales difference between these types of games on current handhelds is a gulf...

 

[Entropy]

But isn't the point of handhelds the 10 minutes on the bus rather than the richer game experiences?

I wouldn't put it that way. The point of handhelds is that it makes gaming for 10 minutes on the bus possible at all.
They do allow longer stretches of gaming as well, when circumstances allow, but don't require it. And when you look at it that way, mobile gaming offers what static gaming equipment does, and more. Add output to big screens, and possibly a means to connect wireless controllers, and static consoles could be replaced completely.

 

[ShadowRunner]

From my experience gaming on portable consoles has never been about playing on a bus. Its always been about being able to play games (and listening to music, watching movies etc. depending on device) while your sitting with the family while they are doing other things like watching tv etc. If you look at DS adverts it has always been sold as that aswell, with the setting most often being a family environment. And sure, you have the option of taking it places with you if you want to.

A lot of this talk assumes that portable consoles wont evolve to market needs either. Look at the ipad and other tabelet devices, in essence the are actually portable consoles, just with emphesis in different areas. If you look at the capabilities of ipad vs NGP they have the potential for exactly the same abilities just with different input options, form factor, and content.