Nintendo 3DS business/general talk *spin-off feat. 3DS as a P.I. in New Orleans

[Cyan]

I think the entire dedicated games handheld market will shrink this time around. What nintendo did with the ds wont be replicated.

Nintendo expanded the market when they ventured outside of their core handheld audience(kids, tweens etc) with the ultra casual games.

Those ultra casuals are better served on mobile phones. Those games are simply cheaper and more portable since you always have to carry your phone anyway.

I actually think sony is better of this time. If the price is right. They offer something unique. True portable console gaming, for the first time ever. The dual analogue sticks are a huge deal.

Yes, I think that the winner aspect of the NGP is that they will probably succeed by being a classic design where power and evolution are the main features of the console.

There are other consoles who pledge their options to gimmicky gameplay and their continual coming and going, continual hardware. Yeah... they exist. Sometimes they scare me. Sometimes they make me real sad.

I miss the old times, where hardware progression was one of the most important features of any new console.

 

[Arwin]

I think the entire dedicated games handheld market will shrink this time around. What nintendo did with the ds wont be replicated.

I don't know. Did anyone notice that the PSP has kept on selling in Japan and is now within 4 million of the PS2's total sales figure? And that is right next to the crazy numbers that the DS achieved. I think that the mobile market has grown immensely, and if everything just keeps growing in all directions, I wouldn't be surprised. Mobile is becoming so popular, that people having multiple mobile devices is just a very likely outcome, and I don't see growth stagnating that soon just yet.

I also agree with many people that just gaming with a single touch screen interface on a small phone screen isn't ideal for a great many of gaming genres. But the 3DS separates input and display more even than the original almost, and that could be a problem.

You could still be right, but right now I'm thinking the new sales curve for the NGP and 3DS (and regular DS) sales combined still have a good chance of beating the PSP and DS combined sales curve.

 

[eastmen]

nintendo shipped 900k to europe and 1.4 million to NA


If they come any where close to selling through those numbers in the first month it will be the biggest launch i can remember.

Where I live the seemed to hvae done pretty well considering it was a sunday launch. The few toys r us's by me were sold out of everything (buy one get one 50% off on games) games stops only got a few extra past reserves (blue seems to be the rare one) and walmart and target were the stores that had a few left.

It may not be a ipad launch but it seems to have done pretty well. Guess we will know the NPD numbers in 2 weeks or so

 

[wco81]

One thing you notice is that there are promotions of all kinds for the 3DS, which you never see at launch.

May see a price cut sooner than later or they may rush out a "slim" design with a lower price.

Especially if games sales on smart phones and tablets continue to grow.

 

[Entropy]

nintendo shipped 900k to europe and 1.4 million to NA


If they come any where close to selling through those numbers in the first month it will be the biggest launch i can remember.

Where I live the seemed to hvae done pretty well considering it was a sunday launch. The few toys r us's by me were sold out of everything (buy one get one 50% off on games) games stops only got a few extra past reserves (blue seems to be the rare one) and walmart and target were the stores that had a few left.

It may not be a ipad launch but it seems to have done pretty well. Guess we will know the NPD numbers in 2 weeks or so

That would give us a first hint, but I don't know how far we can use that in terms of prediction.
Nintendo has sold roughly 150million DSs (!). It would be very surprising if they couldn't sell out their 3DS stock at launch, given the volumes of the predecessor that the 3DS is backwards compatible with. If the 3DS doesn't sell out, it would be remarkable indeed! (On the other hand, perhaps we shouldn't make too much out of the comparison to the iPad queues, as the 3DS could be preordered, and the customers walk in at any time to pick up their sample. It simply felt like I saw the public cast its vote.)

The question mark that is raised isn't really about the volume of enthusiasts who buy at launch, but about sustained sales. The DS sales grew after launch, and sold roughly 30million yearly 2007/2008/2009. The PSP sales, while not quite as flat, has stayed at roughly the same levels up until now. (Both systems dropping off during 2010). And that is key to the business model, as it allows cost reduction on the hardware, it amortizes the development costs of software/hardware/services over a large volume of units, and helps sustain high game sales (and thus licensing revenue) during the long life time of the console.
My contention is that the new generation of handheld consoles won't be able to sustain a high sales volume due to limited justification beyond their core audience. Only time will tell with that. If the first year data is dreadful, well, that settles it. But even with decent first year sales to the core audience, that doesn't ensure that years 2-5 will mirror the previous generation handhelds, since during that period the console will have to sell to a different category of consumers. What will the landscape look like in 2015?
I doubt we can keep this thread going that long.
Arwin came up with the only real positive angle I've seen so far in that the handheld consoles may be carried by the general trend towards portability. Incidentally this implies that people will be sufficiently satisfied with their portable gaming gear to let it replace stationary equipment, just as with laptops vs. desktops. And I believe that he has a point and that this will happen to some extent. However, handhelds already have higher sales volume than the stationary consoles, so even a total migration to portable platforms can't double the number of customers, and of course the trend won't be that extreme so the net gain can't be more than fairly modest. So, while the argument makes sense, there are limits to how much of an impact it can have on an industry that is already dominated by handheld devices. I'd rather see it as a good basis for prediction of how well the next generation of stationary consoles will do.

 

[Sigfried1977]

I came away with a much more negative impression. The 3D works flawlessly, but the image quality is lame, and the graphics are definitely sub-Wii. For me, the 3D accentuates the lack of detail even more, and the screen really is very small. If the NGP is going to get a screen anywhere like the iPad 2's screen, then the difference is going to be blinding. But I bet that we'll get a 3DS Lite with a much better screen within 2 years.

The launch games really do the system a huge disservice I'm afraid. I mean Pilotwings' Wuhu Island wasn't particularly impressive in Wii Sports, and it isn't any more impressive now. Ridge Racer looks like it did 5 years ago when it launched with the PSP. Ghost Recon game is a souped up DS game, Rayman is an ancient Dreamcast game and Asphalt 3d is a bloody phone game, except now it's 50 bucks.

Then you look at Streetfighter IV and wonder what everyone else has been doing with the system. It looks absolutely fantastic. Yes, the static backdrops are a bit disappointing (they still look nice), but then you look at the characer models and everything is forgiven. Most likely Capcom chipped away a couple of polygons here and there as well, but it's impossible to notice on the small screen. From the neat ink effects, to the oil effects on Hakan's skin, to the impressive pyrotechnics from the special attacks - it's all there. The game is very clean looking as well. In 2d mode there's even some proper anti aliasing (but I'm not gonna touch it because seeing fists flying out of the screen during Ultra moves is just way too much fun)

SFIV (and the other stuff Capcom has been showing off) certainly give me hope for the future of the hardware.

The system really needs a couple of those killer app games now. It's clearly been rushed to the market. Heck, half of the options in the system menu tell you that they will be added at a later date when you touch them.

 

[Xmas]

It's understandable that the concept of "good enough" can be disturbing, even threatening for people in the industry, be it development or retail, software or hardware. But I don't think we can ignore the need to do some rather critical cost/benefit analysis going forward, and I doubt we'll see progress at the rate we have in the past. I doubt it is even possible at a time when a four time increase in rendering power no longer gives you an increase in resolution from 320x240 to 640x480, but rather somewhat better shadow rendition.....

"Good enough" is when a developer can implement their artistic vision without compromises. This is obviously very specific to the game in question – with a number of 2D games we've actually hit that point a while ago (minus ultra-high pixel density, maybe). On the other side of the spectrum, anything that tries to be photorealistic still has some way to go, and better technology opens up new possibilities. I think given where PC and consoles are today, there's still vast potential for improvement on handhelds.

In a way it's very similar to the way movies have evolved. A lot of old movies would be no better if remade with better technology, while some recent productions wouldn't have worked without it.

 

[eastmen]

That would give us a first hint, but I don't know how far we can use that in terms of prediction.
Nintendo has sold roughly 150million DSs (!). It would be very surprising if they couldn't sell out their 3DS stock at launch, given the volumes of the predecessor that the 3DS is backwards compatible with. If the 3DS doesn't sell out, it would be remarkable indeed! (On the other hand, perhaps we shouldn't make too much out of the comparison to the iPad queues, as the 3DS could be preordered, and the customers walk in at any time to pick up their sample. It simply felt like I saw the public cast its vote.)

The question mark that is raised isn't really about the volume of enthusiasts who buy at launch, but about sustained sales. The DS sales grew after launch, and sold roughly 30million yearly 2007/2008/2009. The PSP sales, while not quite as flat, has stayed at roughly the same levels up until now. (Both systems dropping off during 2010). And that is key to the business model, as it allows cost reduction on the hardware, it amortizes the development costs of software/hardware/services over a large volume of units, and helps sustain high game sales (and thus licensing revenue) during the long life time of the console.
My contention is that the new generation of handheld consoles won't be able to sustain a high sales volume due to limited justification beyond their core audience. Only time will tell with that. If the first year data is dreadful, well, that settles it. But even with decent first year sales to the core audience, that doesn't ensure that years 2-5 will mirror the previous generation handhelds, since during that period the console will have to sell to a different category of consumers. What will the landscape look like in 2015?
I doubt we can keep this thread going that long.
Arwin came up with the only real positive angle I've seen so far in that the handheld consoles may be carried by the general trend towards portability. Incidentally this implies that people will be sufficiently satisfied with their portable gaming gear to let it replace stationary equipment, just as with laptops vs. desktops. And I believe that he has a point and that this will happen to some extent. However, handhelds already have higher sales volume than the stationary consoles, so even a total migration to portable platforms can't double the number of customers, and of course the trend won't be that extreme so the net gain can't be more than fairly modest. So, while the argument makes sense, there are limits to how much of an impact it can have on an industry that is already dominated by handheld devices. I'd rather see it as a good basis for prediction of how well the next generation of stationary consoles will do.

You have to remember.

Iphone launched in June 2007

DS launched in nov 2004


The DS still has huge amounts of software coming out for it monthly can the same be said for the first gen Iphone ? Do the games coming out now like infinity blade and ohters work on the original first gen iphone ?

The DS has had tripple a and other levels of software created for it for 6 years and with an install base of what 150m world wide it will see at least another 2-3 years of software releases putting it at a 10 year life .

That isn't bad for such a cheap $150 initial investment. Sure the ds lite came out and so did the dsi and xl , however you only had to buy those if you wanted. The original ds still plays all the software just fine.


Look at the ipad its a $500 investment in april 2010. The ipad 2 is already out and doubles process power , ram and possibly increases graphics power much further.

Rumors point to an ipad 3 later this year with even greater processor increases and ram increases.

How long will the current ipad run the newest titles ? Will it still play them in 5 years ? 6 years ?



I don't think we have to worry about 3DS sales because of this. If you buy a 3ds your getting at least a half a decade of titles to play. That is a long time . With the ipad /phone what have you , you may have to buy a new one in 2-3 years.


The same goes with andriod and mabye its worse here . My samsung moment came out in nov 2009 and angry birds came out in oct of 2010 so not even a year later and it couldn't run the hot new games.


Until these things are fixed they wont compete with the handhelds from sony and nintendo. I doubt many parents are going to buy kids a new ipad every year or two or buy a new phone every year.

 

[Entropy]

"Good enough" is when a developer can implement their artistic vision without compromises.

That kind of artistic vision costs real money. And therein lies a problem.
Your point re:2D vs 3D is well taken as far as technology is concerned. But if the goal is to simulate 3D reality, there is no limit to the computing resources (and modelling/artist time) that needs to be applied. Compromises have to be made, and that is where "Good enough" enters the picture.
DeanoC dreamt a bit over in another thread of having an AI that handles thousands of NPCs that goes about their lives irrespective of player intervention. But as a player, if I take time out of my life to play a game, I don't want to hunt down NPCs that decided to go visit their aunt in Bulgaria, nor do I want to pay for hardware that can deal with something I never asked for, nor do I want to pay for developer time to program all these different personalities. What is the purpuse of computer gaming? Entertainment. What can it cost? Leisure money.
Mobile 3D systems are less capable than their stationary brethren, but I think it is very likely that stationary consoles will dwindle in volume compared to the mobile partly because the the difference between them will concern increasingly peripheral issues. Stationary consoles took the market from PC gaming due to convenience, and mobile gaming is more convenient still. If mobile gaming provides what the consumer wants, the need for a stationary device fades. Incidentally, this provides justification for pushing the capabilities of mobile devices for a long time, so if I was dependent on the gaming industry, I would cheer that trend on.
(Sonys (and Nintendos) choice regarding video-output capabilities on their mobile system is interesting, but the writing is on the wall, and I don't think hardware manufacturers can postpone the inevitable for more than possibly a generation, or they will loose their market to someone else. Quite a lot of people have taken notice of the racing game on iOS that provides full 1080p HDMI output to an external screen, using the mobile as a controller. A 3DS or NGP would be a better fit for that use given their physical control options, but if they don't provide in order to protect their stationary business, someone else will eat their lunch. It seems Nintendo and Sony have choosen to give their competitors a 5-10 year market window when it comes to offering this.)

 

[Entropy]

Look at the ipad its a $500 investment in april 2010. The ipad 2 is already out and doubles process power , ram and possibly increases graphics power much further.
Rumors point to an ipad 3 later this year with even greater processor increases and ram increases.
How long will the current ipad run the newest titles ? Will it still play them in 5 years ? 6 years ?

I don't think we have to worry about 3DS sales because of this. If you buy a 3ds your getting at least a half a decade of titles to play. That is a long time . With the ipad /phone what have you , you may have to buy a new one in 2-3 years.

The same goes with andriod and mabye its worse here . My samsung moment came out in nov 2009 and angry birds came out in oct of 2010 so not even a year later and it couldn't run the hot new games.

You think about this from the perspective of the early adopter. But you need to turn that around, and look at it from the perspective of sustained sales. Next year we will see phones/tablets with dual A15 cores and PowerVR series6 graphics. In 2015, why would someone choose the 3DS or the NGP?

Well, the 3DS might have a market, with its 3D and exclusive content, but to actually buy additional hardware to lug around on top of your phone? Hmm. The Sony is probably in a worse position even if more capable in terms of processing, because it will have to rely almost entirely on its physical controls as most of its content is likely to be multiplatform and it has an even larger form factor. To buy additional (expensive and dated) hardware to play the same games the phones have access to, but at a higher price point due to licensing and distribution formats - not a selling concept even to the core audience. And they already bought their consoles, so you have to pitch this to newcomers.

In 2015, you can buy a device that will play the new games, and the back catalog. Or you can buy a console that plays games that are all limited by what could be offered back in 2011. Consoles have succeded with this in the past because the mobiles had no competition, and the stationary consoles were successful with this because they were more convenient than PCs, cheaper than PCs, and most PCs on the market are very weak when it comes to graphics hardware, making the console a pretty good performer compared to the average system.
None of these are true for the handheld consoles vs phones in the future.
(Assuming that an individual who has a handheld console also has a phone, i.e. the console is an added cost.)

Early adoption is the best bet provided you like the launch titles, and of course don't mind the cost and extra gadget. You bought at the right time. But the people that don't buy in the first year, what will make them buy after another three years time? That's the question I don't really see an answer to, which is why I don't think the market of handheld consoles will behave as it has in the past.

 

[eastmen]

You think about this from the perspective of the early adopter. But you need to turn that around, and look at it from the perspective of sustained sales. Next year we will see phones/tablets with dual A15 cores and PowerVR series6 graphics. In 2015, why would someone choose the 3DS or the NGP?

Because in 2013 those a15s and series 6 chips will be out dated with the new wave of hardware . What good is a device when no one is making software for it ?

Well, the 3DS might have a market, with its 3D and exclusive content, but to actually buy additional hardware to lug around on top of your phone? Hmm. The Sony is probably in a worse position even if more capable in terms of processing, because it will have to rely almost entirely on its physical controls as most of its content is likely to be multiplatform and it has an even larger form factor. To buy additional (expensive and dated) hardware to play the same games the phones have access to, but at a higher price point due to licensing and distribution formats - not a selling concept even to the core audience. And they already bought their consoles, so you have to pitch this to newcomers.

The 3ds is quite small actually and considerig its getting the same or better power while playing games as a high end cell phone and doesn't waste your cell phone battery there are alot of reasons to pick one up

i agree on the ngp , it will be dead in the water like the psp but the 3ds has its own market that cell phones and tablets wont touch

Aside from that you believe that these systems will have dated games , but if you have to buy a new phone or tablet every year to continue playing the best games it will become very costly. $500 a year is alot more than $250 over the course of 6-7 years.

In 2015, you can buy a device that will play the new games, and the back catalog. Or you can buy a console that plays games that are all limited by what could be offered back in 2011. Consoles have succeded with this in the past because the mobiles had no competition, and the stationary consoles were successful with this because they were more convenient than PCs, cheaper than PCs, and most PCs on the market are very weak when it comes to graphics hardware, making the console a pretty good performer compared to the average system.
None of these are true for the handheld consoles vs phones in the future.
(Assuming that an individual who has a handheld console also has a phone, i.e. the console is an added cost.)

In 2015 you can buy a device that will play 2015 and older games but it most likely wont play 2016 games and def not 2017 games. Or you can buy a 3ds in 2011 that will still be playing new games through 2018

Early adoption is the best bet provided you like the launch titles, and of course don't mind the cost and extra gadget. You bought at the right time. But the people that don't buy in the first year, what will make them buy after another three years time? That's the question I don't really see an answer to, which is why I don't think the market of handheld consoles will behave as it has in the past.

Its the library of games and the need to not constantly upgrade. Remember the 3ds has the ds library , gameboy library , gameboy color library and most likely the gba library and rumors have it getting the game gear library and some other ones.


Like i said unlike the iphone and andriod there wont be replacements for years which means no matter when you buy format you can not only look back but look foward at games. Thi sisn't something you can do with ios or andriod at this moment in time.

Look at andriod you bought a nice xoom tablet ? tough luck the zoom 2 with quad core cpu is coming out this fall.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

i agree on the ngp , it will be dead in the water like the psp.

When being the only handheld games console to sell tens of millions not created by Nintendo, selling more than the SNES, the dominant console of its generation, having sold more than the current best-selling home console of this generation, the record-breaking Wii, and selling more than the XB and GC combined sales, is considered 'dead in the water', it shows such extremes of perception that I don't see any considerations of the future handheld markets to be fair ones. People who can't interpret the world with a granularity finer than "winner and everyone else" certainly wouldn't be my first port of call when trying to make business decisions on the size of a market share and profitability obtainable from it for a new hardware venture...

 

[Sigfried1977]

You think about this from the perspective of the early adopter. But you need to turn that around, and look at it from the perspective of sustained sales. Next year we will see phones/tablets with dual A15 cores and PowerVR series6 graphics. In 2015, why would someone choose the 3DS or the NGP?

And you still won't see any Zelda, Mario or Uncharted on it and struggle with the controls. And one year later you'll have to buy another bloody revision of the thing if you want to continue playing your phone games.

The PSP is now hold old? Six years I believe. Then I look at Kingdom Hearts Birthy by Sleep and compare to the games my buddy has on his iphone 4, and then I laugh. Besides, the success of apps like Angry Birds or Doodle Jump aren't exactly convincing me that graphics power is the primary concern for the casual mobile gamer.

Also, if you can carry an Ipad around you sure as hell can carry a phone and a dedicated gaming handheld.

Do I think the 3ds will repeat the success story of its predecessor? No, not really. The Brain Trainings and Cooking Mamas of this world that made the system so attractive to the moms and girlfriends work just fine on a smart phone where you can buy them for pennies after all. I believe there are still plenty of people left who value their hobby though, even on the go, and to them an Iphone/Ipad will remain, at best, a welcome distraction.

 

[eastmen]

When being the only handheld games console to sell tens of millions not created by Nintendo, selling more than the SNES, the dominant console of its generation, having sold more than the current best-selling home console of this generation, the record-breaking Wii, and selling more than the XB and GC combined sales, is considered 'dead in the water', it shows such extremes of perception that I don't see any considerations of the future handheld markets to be fair ones. People who can't interpret the world with a granularity finer than "winner and everyone else" certainly wouldn't be my first port of call when trying to make business decisions on the size of a market share and profitability obtainable from it for a new hardware venture...

Last I check unit sales only matter if the hardware was profitable to sell by itself from the start otherwise they were loosing money by selling those units and depending on when/if they made a profit selling new hardware .


The psp has allways had very bad software sales esp here in the united states.

 

[Brad Grenz]

Last I check unit sales only matter if the hardware was profitable to sell by itself from the start otherwise they were loosing money by selling those units and depending on when/if they made a profit selling new hardware .


The psp has allways had very bad software sales esp here in the united states.

It doesn't have to be from the start. And the hardware has likely been profitable for at least 4 years now. Add in software sales and I doubt Sony has any regrets over all the money they've made or becoming the defacto gaming platform in Japan.

I think it's far more likely Nintendo will ultimately be left in no man's land, with an overpriced, under powered dedicated gaming device that will have ceded the casual market to smart phones/tablets/ipods and be incapable of competing with a far more capable, price-competitive hardcore system like the NGP. In other words, the 3DS will be for first party games and hardcore Nintendo fan boys and not much else, ala the N64 and Gamecube. There just isn't a Wii Sports to propel the system to huge success. 3D isn't that compelling.

This time around no one is going to post DS numbers. But I think the NGP is better inoculated against the rapidly changing marketplace because it can do everything.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

I doubt Nintendo will ever end up in no mans land. Nintendo will probably be the last to end up there. Just look at the wii, their own IP alone is enough to carry the console (obviously, it would be much better with 3rd party support). I doubt this will ever change.

But more importantly, and this is something some people always seem to forget is price. You are talking about tablets and phones like they cost nothing. Sure, if you have a full time job you can afford one but really, how many kids under 18 you think can afford a 500 dollar tablet or a 300+ dollar phone? (budget phones wont even run things like angry birds smooth) Not to mention these devices last max 2 years before you need to buy a new one for new games.

Than we have a dedicated handheld. 250 dollars max, lasts you 6+ years, has good controlls, will get tons of AAA games etc. Very very easy choice for parents/minors if you ask me. In Nintendo's case add in IP that doesnt rely on the ''if it aint got blood, it aint cool'' crowd and Nintendo will always have a huge crow to sell their handhelds to.

That is not even counting in the fact that phones/tablets suck major ass if you want to do any decent gaming on them so they will never replace handhelds anyway if you ask me.

As for 3d not being compelling, we will see. Personally I never cared that much for 3d though I havnt checked the 3ds out yet, but people said exactly the same about touchscreens and motion gaming. And just look at the market right now. Lots of games for touch screen devices and both sony and ms released a Wii copy.

 

[Sigfried1977]

Heck, and if the 3ds begins to show signs of struggling at its 250 dollar msrp, Nintendo can easily adjust the price without bleeding exorbitant amounts of cash.

 

[Entropy]

I think it's far more likely Nintendo will ultimately be left in no man's land, with an overpriced, under powered dedicated gaming device that will have ceded the casual market to smart phones/tablets/ipods and be incapable of competing with a far more capable, price-competitive hardcore system like the NGP. In other words, the 3DS will be for first party games and hardcore Nintendo fan boys and not much else, ala the N64 and Gamecube. There just isn't a Wii Sports to propel the system to huge success. 3D isn't that compelling.

I think the parallell made between Wii Sports and 3D being the lures to bring in the curious casuals to respective systems is pretty good. I feel 3D can work pretty well though, it can sure keep me occupied for a while experimenting with the slider, and shifting my head around. I like it, and the novelty value is definitely there. In terms of game mechanics however it doesn't add much, in contrast to the Wii-mote that brought a whole new way of interacting with the game world.

I feel we are arguing somewhat different questions in this thread.
One question is "can I justify buying a 3DS now?". => 3DS sales including the first christmas
The other question is "will it make sense to buy a 3DS in 2015?". => 3DS sales over the next five years

Something I see in three different posts above is the value placed on buying a system in order to be able to play future titles. I don't quite understand that from anything other than an early adopter perspective.
In 2015, you can buy a 2015 smartphone that plays games made from 2010-2015, and will probably be able to play the crop of the next couple of years as well, say to 2017. After that, the high-end games might well exclude your hardware. Or you can buy a console with 2011 construction that has games made from 2011-2015, and may have a few years more of products. I just don't see a major difference there. But the 2015 smartphone will be more versatile and have better innards than the 2011 console design, and you're going to have to have a phone anyway, so the question is if the proposition of buying a console in addition to your phone will be appealing. And therein lies the change of the competitive landscape. Even a couple of years ago, the mobile consoles didn't really have any competition. A few years from now, just about anyone who can pay for a mobile console will have a gaming capable phone. That's a vast difference.

To tongue_of - no, phones aren't free. But they are pretty much necessary, so anyone is likely to have a phone first, and a console second. From a parent perspective, it is quite an advantage that a single device can do the phone/messaging job, but also calendar functions, keep the back-seat peace, keep track of transportation schedules et cetera. My parenting bias is strongly in favour of limiting the number of gadgets anyway, and if the back seat peace would require either $10 worth of iTunes credit, or a 3DS + $50 game, I know what the choice would be both for myself and most other parents I know.

 

[zed]

I see the 3ds is off to a bad start in japan, already outsold by the psp last week & theres no supply issues. Though as japan tastes are very different to the rest of the west we'll see whether or not its a worldwide thing, one benefit though I suppose ninentdo can now ship some excess stock from japan to other countries

 

[eastmen]

It doesn't have to be from the start. And the hardware has likely been profitable for at least 4 years now. Add in software sales and I doubt Sony has any regrets over all the money they've made or becoming the defacto gaming platform in Japan.

can you pinpoint when sony started making money from selling only psp hardware ? can you pinpoint when it made enough from hardware only to counter the losses from selling the hardware originaly ?

Also when was the psp the defacto gaming platform in japan ? i don't think thats ever been the case , the ds has shifted more units and more software than sony could dream the psp would do .

I think it's far more likely Nintendo will ultimately be left in no man's land, with an overpriced, under powered dedicated gaming device that will have ceded the casual market to smart phones/tablets/ipods and be incapable of competing with a far more capable, price-competitive hardcore system like the NGP. In other words, the 3DS will be for first party games and hardcore Nintendo fan boys and not much else, ala the N64 and Gamecube. There just isn't a Wii Sports to propel the system to huge success. 3D isn't that compelling.

the 3ds is priced high compared to what ? right now there is nothing like it and ngp wont launch for another half a year at least at this point and mabye not even in all the major markets for another year. nintendo can easily drop their price to compete when they have to.

This time around no one is going to post DS numbers. But I think the NGP is better inoculated against the rapidly changing marketplace because it can do everything.

But can it do everything well ? i doubt it dude and whats worse the tech market is going to pass it by rather quickly . they are already talking about a tegra 3 quad core xoom for the fall. which means tablet hardware can already have caught up before the system even releases . then once the ngp rleeases its specs are locked down but there will be more tablets and phones every 3-6 months boasting better and better specs.

then where will sony be ? it may have better specs than the 3ds but it wont even have nintendo's first party suport . so where would the ngp fit out there ?