Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]

[Picao84]

To me 2019 is right for a PS5 from a business POV, if NAVI is not there it is technically not doable.
Sony needs better IP to build a system that is better overall than the XB1X. Nowadays AMD GPU does not allow that, Sony has stuck to 399€ for the launch of its systems (and +/- no loss) and it is imo a good choice, they need more competitive silicon: more perfs per Watts, per mm2, per GB/s => per €€€ overall.

This! It is exactly what I meant by AMD being the main factor behind pushing back the 9th generation of consoles.

 

[liolio]

Rumors about PS4 from [not quite reliable] French ex-Gameblog journalist
https://www.resetera.com/threads/ju...rchitecture-price-bc-launch-window-etc.35891/

Sounds more like reasonable guessing than real leak. Not a single specific information.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

When was the last time AMD delivered a new architecture with a decent performance/watt?....don't hold your breath over Navi.

The embedded Vega in the Raven Ridge SoCs has spectacular performance/watt. It's getting >2x the performance of Bristol Ridge solutions with same TDP and same CU count.
It's true that Vega 10 failed to meet the power efficiency characteristics that most hoped for (AMD included, probably), but a single chip's performance isn't representative of the whole architecture. There's embedded Vega and there's a 7nm Vega 20 for HPC coming up this year.


Regardless, Navi is rumoured to be GFX9. That would mean it's mostly a Vega perhaps using GDDR6 (or maybe even have a memory controller compatible with both GDDR6 and HBM2), built on 7nm plus whatever they mean with scalability.


If Navi brings Raven Ridge's iGPU power efficiency up to the 7nm's promised ~60% upgrade then they could be making some upgraded mid-rangers with very competitive power efficiency.

To me 2019 is right for a PS5 from a business POV, if NAVI is not there it is technically not doable.

There's no reason to believe that a PS5 would be delayed by the release of Navi discrete GPUs, even if it shares the same architecture.
The PS4 Pro's GPU came out with "beyond Polaris features" (such as RPM) 8 months before Vega was launched.

• Don't expect a 'stratospheric leap' - PS5 is the continuation of what's been done before: more visual comfort but not a game-changing revolution - However, this will have advantages as to backwards compatibility or price
• Launch window: Games currently being developed for the PS5 have been given an 18-month goal (for development time), which means late 2019-early 2020
• Final dev kits arent being shared with developers yet, at least not third-party devs
  
• They're working on powerful PCs with specs roughly equivalent to the PS5

Missing there is Sony devs being told to target 4K60, go crazy with visual fidelity and A.I., renewed push for PSVR.

The rest just sums up most of the educated guesses made in this thread.
As for the powerful PCs I'm betting on a simple AM4 motherboard with a downclocked Ryzen 1700 and a Vega 64. Maybe the LC version to better emulate the clocks that should be easily achievable using 7nm.

 

[HBRU]

I thought the same about the XboneX.
Hey if they're launching a full year after the Pro then it's because they're definitely are waiting for Vega and Zen!

And then it came out with Jaguar cores and a Polaris GPU.

ok... I think that too. Only I say the rumored 2019 console will not be next gen... too early for Sony to give up with Ps4 success, too early technologically to have a consistent leap.. 2023

 

[Deleted member 13524]

I really don't think there will be a Pro 2 though.

I do think come 7nm in 2019 Sony is likely to abandon the PS4 Slim and sell only a Slim version of the 4 Pro and (fingers-crossed) a PS4 Go (PS4-capable handheld).

 

[HBRU]

TottenTranz.... Ps4pro is a bit weak, look at the new Witcher3 HDR patch... They have trouble. They need to give out new entusiast HW but they need also to keep on with PS4 success. So you are right above but they need also to extend till 2023 (I think) the Ps4 success with some kind of PS4 Ultimate

 

[anexanhume]

Snippets from article...

• Don't expect a 'stratospheric leap' - PS5 is the continuation of what's been done before: more visual comfort but not a game-changing revolution - However, this will have advantages as to backwards compatibility or price
• Launch window: Games currently being developed for the PS5 have been given an 18-month goal (for development time), which means late 2019-early 2020
• Final dev kits arent being shared with developers yet, at least not third-party devs
  
• They're working on powerful PCs with specs roughly equivalent to the PS5

The content has a lot of contradictory points to it, and the author is not well regarded. I wouldn’t put much stock in it.

 

[HBRU]

how much cost today an HW capable of true 4K@60hz ?!? Add an SSD if you dont have to stay 5 min to wait for loadings... 1500 us$... ?!? I mean 4K@60HZ of complex games like The Witcher 3... I dont think in one year it will be much different...

ok I agree... Maybe no console is coming in the near future

 

[McHuj]

I do think come 7nm in 2019 Sony is likely to abandon the PS4 Slim and sell only a Slim version of the 4 Pro and (fingers-crossed) a PS4 Go (PS4-capable handheld).

I'm not sure that will happen. A 7nm super slim PS4 that's profitable at $199 could be a huge seller for many years to come like the PS2 was after PS3 launched. With the huge PS4 library, I don't think it makes sense for Sony to abandon an untapped market.

With a cheap PS4 and a premium fully BC PS5, the Pro is the console without a market.

 

[MrFox]

I really don't think there will be a Pro 2 though.

I do think come 7nm in 2019 Sony is likely to abandon the PS4 Slim and sell only a Slim version of the 4 Pro and (fingers-crossed) a PS4 Go (PS4-capable handheld).

I'm not sure that will happen. A 7nm super slim PS4 that's profitable at $199 could be a huge seller for many years to come like the PS2 was after PS3 launched. With the huge PS4 library, I don't think it makes sense for Sony to abandon an untapped market.

With a cheap PS4 and a premium fully BC PS5, the Pro is the console without a market.

As things shrink and lower power, the only cost difference between ps4 and pro will be the bigger SoC, the rest (case, PSU, fan) becomes very similar. Memory and hdd and optical are the same for both. Board is similar. Same south bridge.

Once they can do a profitable 199 PS4, they can do a 249 Pro.

I would guess both will stay in the market.

 

[Tkumpathenurple]

In the probabilities of things, the longer it takes for PS5 to release the higher the probability for BC. If it were released this year like SA somewhat implies i would give it a low probability, at least, to ship with BC.

I think Sony can implement any hardware customizations to enable BC and thus I expect it to be supported in a hardware form. The business of BC is something else entirely. Licensing agreements, or how licenses are handled are a different matter which are MS greatest hurdles at the moment.

Could hardware emulation be a way around the matter of licensing? For disks at least.

Since Microsoft's approach to X360 emulation requires you to download a per-game emulator, they have to distribute content through their network, so it makes sense that licensing issues would follow.

If, hypothetically, the PS5 was technically able to hardware emulate the PS3, do you know or think issues might arise with say, emulating the Nvidia GPU in the PS3?

It was a patent to change the timings of a piece of hardware test BC I believe.

Yeah, I read that it involved different cache sizes too. I'm only going by what others have said about it - I had a brief look at the patent, but I didn't really know what I was looking for.

It does make me wonder though, is it definitely in relation to BC alone, or is it preparatory work for PS5 software working across multiple targets? As I see it, that's Microsoft's biggest advantage over Sony at the moment, and I reckon Sony would like to match them to maintain hardware flexibility next generation.

Or maybe Sony are just planning PS4 revisions using Zen in place of Jaguar. I turned FFXV to high framerate mode on my Pro, and it started wailing. It doesn't do that on the other modes or games, so I can only assume that the CPU is the culprit. 2.1GHz would be child's play for Zen, especially at 7nm.

So if you're in Sony's position, you can either invest significant sums of money into a 7nm Jaguar shrink, or you can invest in ensuring Jaguar code runs on Zen. The return on the former ends with this generation, whereas the return on the latter continues into the next generation.

 

[HBRU]

I guess pro and pro2... Vanilla Ps4 dropped.... Ps5 a dream today.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Once they can do a profitable 199 PS4, they can do a 249 Pro.

Does it even make sense to sell a $199 PS4 when they can have a >2x more powerful console that supports 4K HDR TVs and significantly better PSVR experience for $249?

To be honest, I think 2019 will see the PS4 starting to be phased out. Preferably with the introduction of a mobile PS4 Go.
Then we'd have:

- PS4 Pro for $249
- PS4 Go for $350-400

PS4 Go would have full compatibility with the 2013 console but in 8-9" tablet form. Devs still target both SKUs, but the Pro would become the de facto home console for 2019, until the PS5 release.

 

[anexanhume]

There are several patents attributed to Cerny regarding backwards compatibility that cover things like adjusting frequency, disabling/modifying hardware resources, spoofing IDs, emulating bus behaviors, and simulated feedback models for performance profiles and more. It seems pretty certain for PS5.

https://patents.google.com/?inventor=Mark+Evan+Cerny&sort=new

https://patentimages.storage.googleapis.com/c4/c5/b9/7358e0f270ccc2/US20180004243A1.pdf
https://patentimages.storage.googleapis.com/92/44/9c/c9faca99939eeb/US20170286282A1.pdf
https://patentimages.storage.googleapis.com/71/d0/30/764aa2a80362b2/US20170212820A1.pdf

 

[bitsandbytes]

There are several patents attributed to Cerny regarding backwards compatibility that cover things like adjusting frequency, disabling/modifying hardware resources, spoofing IDs, emulating bus behaviors, and simulated feedback models for performance profiles and more. It seems pretty certain for PS5.

https://patents.google.com/?inventor=Mark+Evan+Cerny&sort=new

https://patentimages.storage.googleapis.com/c4/c5/b9/7358e0f270ccc2/US20180004243A1.pdf
https://patentimages.storage.googleapis.com/92/44/9c/c9faca99939eeb/US20170286282A1.pdf
https://patentimages.storage.googleapis.com/71/d0/30/764aa2a80362b2/US20170212820A1.pdf

Could these only relate to PS4 Pro? The dates featured are 2015 and 2016 in the main text (pages 4 and 7 respectively)?

 

[HBRU]

Does it even make sense to sell a $199 PS4 when they can have a >2x more powerful console that supports 4K HDR TVs and significantly better PSVR experience for $249?

To be honest, I think 2019 will see the PS4 starting to be phased out. Preferably with the introduction of a mobile PS4 Go.
Then we'd have:

- PS4 Pro for $249
- PS4 Go for $350-400

PS4 Go would have full compatibility with the 2013 console but in 8-9" tablet form. Devs still target both SKUs, but the Pro would become the de facto home console for 2019, until the PS5 release.

same view... But eventually also a pro2 for entusiast.. Easy to develop for.

 

[anexanhume]

Could these only relate to PS4 Pro? The dates featured are 2015 and 2016 in the main text (pages 4 and 7 respectively)?

Possible, but these parents describe a CPU that has resources disabled, not just clocks changed or IDs spoofed. Of course these are written as generic as possible, but the scope seems to go beyond a CPU with higher clocks.

I think the background section is telling:

When new computer architecture is released it is desirable for the applications written for a previous version of the architecture to run flawlessly on the new architecture. This capability is often referred to as "backwards compatibility." Implementing backwards compatibility involves emulating a target legacy device on the new host architecture so that the new architecture can execute the instructions of programs written for the legacy. Computer architectures change over time to take advantage of technological advances in busses, clock speed, processor architecture, caching, standards, etc. When one computer architecture is replaced by a newer architecture the older architecture becomes what is called a legacy architecture. Over the course of its development software applications, such as network protocols, user interfaces, audio processing, device drivers, graphics processing, messaging, word processors, spreadsheets, database programs, games, and other applications are written for a legacy architecture. Such legacy software still has value to its users even if they upgrade to a new architecture. A need therefore exists to be able to run legacy software on the new architecture.

 

[Rikimaru]

As things shrink and lower power, the only cost difference between ps4 and pro will be the bigger SoC, the rest (case, PSU, fan) becomes very similar. Memory and hdd and optical are the same for both. Board is similar. Same south bridge.

Once they can do a profitable 199 PS4, they can do a 249 Pro.

I would guess both will stay in the market.

Maybe. Maybe not. I think 7nm PS4 could be as small as PS2. Pro can not (PSU, cooling).
Anyway - too much choice for a consumer. I think Sony will stop selling Pro.

 

[bitsandbytes]

Possible, but these parents describe a CPU that has resources disabled, not just clocks changed or IDs spoofed. Of course these are written as generic as possible, but the scope seems to go beyond a CPU with higher clocks.

I think the background section is telling:

Maybe but that section is also very general and could be talking about the GPU or CPU of any system. Also wouldn't AMD have some patents given this is also their IP or at least some of their people with expertise in this area along
with Mark and David?

I find it interesting that David Simpson is a lead programmer at ND/Ice Team as well as a lead architect for the PS4 and Pro SoCs. He specializes in the GPU which might indicate the patents relate to that rather than CPU?

 

[AlNom]

Maybe. Maybe not. I think 7nm PS4 could be as small as PS2. Pro can not (PSU, cooling).
Anyway - too much choice for a consumer. I think Sony will stop selling Pro.

They'd have to switch memory type, otherwise the base APU would likely be pad-limited on a 256-bit bus.

As things shrink and lower power, the only cost difference between ps4 and pro will be the bigger SoC, the rest (case, PSU, fan) becomes very similar. Memory and hdd and optical are the same for both. Board is similar. Same south bridge.

Indeed, although I'm not sure there's enough cost reduction to be had to shave off another $100 off the MSRP based on the reduction in APU size & power requirements.