Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]

[MrFox]

I don’t think they want to be stuck with 384 bit interfaces or a minimum of 12 DRAM chips when it comes to die shrinking and cost cutting. A 256 bit interface would age much more gracefully. Heck, HBM won’t look so bad once they can get sufficient via density on organic.

With the X1X, Microsoft doesn’t really have to worry about cost reductions, IMO. It may never be rev’ed, and I think that’s fine for what it is.

I agree a 256bit gddr6 interface is more reasonable for a 399 target, specially with the doubled number of channels it's a bigger footprint than gddr5. And it would be fine for a 7nm part, because without some AMD miracle with navi, we can't expect a 15TF monster....

11TF/22TF figure
16GB GDDR6, 256bits
576 GB/s using 18gbps parts
It ends up with the same bandwidth ratio of X and Pro, around 50GB/s per teraflop.

It's not locked into that choice though. Maybe they can move to hbm for the slim revision and/or mid-gen refresh as cost allows. It's a nice two stacks of 8GB at 2.4ghz. And for launch they still have a very low cost and low risk with gddr6. 2019 isn't impossible with those specs.

I would still prefer a 2021 launch with 15-18TF from both Sony and MS. A same year launch would be as epic as 2013 which reignited the console industry.

 

[mpg1]

I sort of had the assumption that Microsoft releasing the X1X a year after PS4 Pro would mean that PS5 would be the first launch and Xbox Two would follow. But the reality is the next gen is a clean slate up for grabs. It's not an automatic that Sony will be the first to launch.

 

[iroboto]

I sort of had the assumption that Microsoft releasing the X1X a year after PS4 Pro would mean that PS5 would be the first launch and Xbox Two would follow. But the reality is the next gen is a clean slate up for grabs. It's not an automatic that Sony will be the first to launch.

it still could be. With the way technology is playing out and how the two companies could diverge (xbox putting more emphasis on gaming as a service, Sony more emphasis on VR), how they transition needn't be the same at all nor would past transitions necessarily be a good guideline for where we are headed in gaming.

I happen to think they will be very different from each other next gen.

 

[Pixel]

Great video from NX gamer

NX Gamer goes in depth on what I was discussing earlier in this thread related to the low level console api's proving a bit of a road block towards backwards compatibility..

 

[Shortbread]

I sort of had the assumption that Microsoft releasing the X1X a year after PS4 Pro would mean that PS5 would be the first launch and Xbox Two would follow. But the reality is the next gen is a clean slate up for grabs. It's not an automatic that Sony will be the first to launch.

If both next-generation systems launch around the same time, with relatively the same hardware, along with backwards compatibility, I just can't picture PS4 users moving massively towards the next generation of Xbox, nor XBO users moving massively towards PS5. If this is the case, Sony and Microsoft will mostly be dueling it out for newcomers to console gaming and/or newer markets with massive positive growth and wealth. And if this is the scenario, I don't see Sony and Microsoft swapping their current gaming leadership/market-share position. Essentially, Mark Cerny comments about "console generation being a thing of the past," maybe true... since these newer systems are just extending the life of older games and keeping gamers in their respective previous (of course update) gaming ecosystems.

 

[MrFox]

it still could be. With the way technology is playing out and how the two companies could diverge (xbox putting more emphasis on gaming as a service, Sony more emphasis on VR), how they transition needn't be the same at all nor would past transitions necessarily be a good guideline for where we are headed in gaming.

I happen to think they will be very different from each other next gen.

Do you mean because they won't launch at the same time? Or because MS will use something other than AMD? I mean there's only so much you can do when the primary expense is a CPU and a GPU at a certain price point at a certain time. GaaS so far doesn't impact how third parties make their engines, they need a hardware target. The new focus on GaaS is just a pricing and obsolescence model.

Sony has PS Now which is maturing well, which would make a 4K PSTV model usable, but the market doesn't seem to want that. We will still needs a PS5 with discs and an HDD.

 

[mpg1]

it still could be. With the way technology is playing out and how the two companies could diverge (xbox putting more emphasis on gaming as a service, Sony more emphasis on VR), how they transition needn't be the same at all nor would past transitions necessarily be a good guideline for where we are headed in gaming.

I happen to think they will be very different from each other next gen.

Every generation was up for grabs in the past. I don't see how this changes. They are both going to competing for that install base.

 

[anexanhume]

Recently had this pop up on my feed. Seems it could apply to next gen APUs as well. Pretty cool method to manage power droop without sacrificing nominal clock speed or power profiles:

https://www.realworldtech.com/steamroller-clocking/

Second, this technique could be applied to AMD’s discrete and integrated GPUs, although it is hard to say how big the benefits would be for GPUs. The target clock frequency for a GPU is 1GHz rather than 3GHz and the clock domains are bigger and contain more cores. On the other hand, since GPUs are so parallel dI/dt events may be much bigger (e.g., if all the shaders in a GPU simultaneously begin executing a floating point kernel). Even if the benefits are just half of what is possible in a CPU, a 5-10% decrease in power is significant for a 250W GPU.

Third, since adaptive clocking minimizes the impact of voltage droops AMD could remove package decoupling capacitors or package layers to reduce the cost of the overall platform.

 

[iroboto]

Do you mean because they won't launch at the same time? Or because MS will use something other than AMD? I mean there's only so much you can do when the primary expense is a CPU and a GPU at a certain price point at a certain time. GaaS so far doesn't impact how third parties make their engines, they need a hardware target. The new focus on GaaS is just a pricing and obsolescence model.

Sony has PS Now which is maturing well, which would make a 4K PSTV model usable, but the market doesn't seem to want that. We will still needs a PS5 with discs and an HDD.

Every generation was up for grabs in the past. I don't see how this changes. They are both going to competing for that install base.

Indeed, I'm suggesting launch timing can be different. It's like Nintendo not really caring when the other 2 competitors launch, they need to work on their hardware and launch when their hardware meets their requirements. I think I can see next generation being that type of scenario. For instance if Sony wanted to push VR, and that was going to be a main focus for next gen, their dependencies could be entirely different from MS, thus their timing being different.

Where it gets interesting is the introduction of DXR. If we push aside the idea of next generation platform features, and look specifically at the core elements, the idea of ray tracing is probably the next big thing. If you were MS, and you knew this was coming, a long time ago, you'd probably have an idea of how long it would take to have this running on your next generation system. Is 2-3 years enough time or do we need to wait longer and do they really want to ship without ray tracing hardware? They have no first party studios yet (that takes years to build the back bench), their focus has to be 3rd party domination. Is there something that as MS you could do to extend the shelf life of your existing products while you wait for this to come down the pipe. So that's one thought, launch later to have more powerful hardware. They need it desperately.

On the second thought, Game Pass, Mixer, and soon to be Game Streaming should be coming together in 3 years. The idea of a low latency GaaS running on a thin client should be something we see soon. If you think about how this model can be truly successful, we're really just having a discussion about how many new games will launch the same day on game pass. Perhaps they'll be releasing a mobile device soon that could take full advantage of this, or partner with one. Who knows, but what MS has planned for Xbox is larger than the console itself here.

tldr;
Sony

• dependencies could be entirely on VR and the next PSVR
• Need to build out platform features like BC etc. Probably not a good idea to roll into next gen without PS4 BC.
• If VR, really want to launch with some stronger VR software
• if not VR, launch into next gen with some software that will blow away visuals, but that also takes time.

MS

• Concede to Sony on launching first.
• Launch after with more powerful hardware
• try to mitigate the differences in launch by finding ways to extend the life of the hardware, or some other method, continue building platform features
• slowly at a tortoise's pace build up your 1P lineup have it ready for next gen

We'd have to guess how long it would take to run these game plans through. But I think Sony is closer to their goals than MS is to theirs.

 

[MrFox]

I think the best moment to launch could be as soon as AMD's true next gen architecture is available (maybe with features developped in collaboration). Then the next mid-gen can be using that new architecture too otherwise they paint themselves in a corner.

So launching a year earlier than that is a big missed opportunity for the power/performance improvement of the new architecture, and launching a year later is a potential zero sum. More power would cost more money, since there is no new architecture providing better cost effectiveness. The additional power has to come from more silicon and higher clock (lower yield and/or expensive cooling).

That would be as far away as 2021
On the bright side, it would be a nice tech jump.

 

[anexanhume]

I think the best moment to launch could be as soon as AMD's true next gen architecture is available (maybe with features developped in collaboration). Then the next mid-gen can be using that new architecture too otherwise they paint themselves in a corner.

So launching a year earlier than that is a big missed opportunity for the power/performance improvement of the new architecture, and launching a year later is a potential zero sum. More power would cost more money, since there is no new architecture providing better cost effectiveness. The additional power has to come from more silicon and higher clock (lower yield and/or expensive cooling).

That would be as far away as 2021
On the bright side, it would be a nice tech jump.

2021 is compelling because it brings Zen 3 and 7nm+ into possibility as well. It wouldn’t just be about a next gen GPU.

 

[iroboto]

I think the best moment to launch could be as soon as AMD's true next gen architecture is available (maybe with features developped in collaboration). Then the next mid-gen can be using that new architecture too otherwise they paint themselves in a corner.

So launching a year earlier than that is a big missed opportunity for the power/performance improvement of the new architecture, and launching a year later is a potential zero sum. More power would cost more money, since there is no new architecture providing better cost effectiveness. The additional power has to come from more silicon and higher clock (lower yield and/or expensive cooling).

That would be as far away as 2021
On the bright side, it would be a nice tech jump.

I totally agree with this idea, but that's sort of why I put forward the concept of different priorities. They would be behind on the power/performance timing, as long as it paid off in some other form, ie DXR customizations. We're at the point of growth for a new technology in graphics, but in 3 years time, we're starting to get into maturity, and by the 4th year, perhaps we'd see a mainstream launch of DXR. I don't know if ray tracing will line up with 7nm is pretty much what I'm getting at. And Sony and MS will need to decide what matters to them here; I do see the possibility of more hardware features to support it over the years. And I don't see it being likely that PSVR2 will have the headroom to incorporate DXR into high resolution high frame rate VR.

 

[BRiT]

Sure would be cool for a semi-modular console that could support a DXR upgrade in place of mid-gen refresh replacements.

 

[phoenix_chipset]

The more I think about it the more the idea of a 2019 launch is just really unrealistic. I actually think MS would get some sega style flak for that. Imo we'll see a simultaneous 2020 launch, or 2020 for sony and MS will launch 2021. I don't think the yields or component prices have a snowball's chance of being right for 2019.

What reason exactly do Sony and esp. Ms have to rush?

 

[dten]

I think the best moment to launch could be as soon as AMD's true next gen architecture is available (maybe with features developped in collaboration). Then the next mid-gen can be using that new architecture too otherwise they paint themselves in a corner.

So launching a year earlier than that is a big missed opportunity for the power/performance improvement of the new architecture, and launching a year later is a potential zero sum. More power would cost more money, since there is no new architecture providing better cost effectiveness. The additional power has to come from more silicon and higher clock (lower yield and/or expensive cooling).

That would be as far away as 2021
On the bright side, it would be a nice tech jump.

Doesn't that depend on the new architecture? If post Navi just more TFLOPs, then it won't affect much. But if it brings new rendering tech such as DXR or something we don't know yet, then yeah, it would be a shame if the tech releases in 2021 yet the consoles missed it by a year for a machine supposed to last the next 6-7 years.

 

[Karamazov]

They have to mark the 25 years of PlayStation. Either by releasing the ps5 or announcing it on the anniversary Day.

 

[steveOrino]

I just want to see what company is stupid enough to launch at > $400

 

[borntosoul]

I just want to see what company is stupid enough to launch at > $400

Can’t stay on $400 for ever, I’d rather see a consol launch at $500 with a big improvement than one at $400 with not so much.

25 years of PlayStation hmmmm.....great opportunity to make a big statement - It has to be something special!
I can’t see ray tracing being used effectively on a consol for a very long time- hope I’m wrong.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I can’t see ray tracing being used effectively on a consol for a very long time- hope I’m wrong.

Why? Ray tracing has many uses beyond photorealistic graphics where photorealism isn't attainable in the next hardware.

 

[phoenix_chipset]

I don't think anyone will launch a new console without having built in ray tracing abilities now that it's being implemented in hardware. That's a big thing for consoles to miss out on.

Do we know if Navi will be doing it or just the next nvidia cards?