News & Rumors: Xbox One (codename Durango)

[RancidLunchmeat]

Not necessarily. Current gen hardware sales, post initial-surge, are a bit troubling.

I think if MS ever gets out of gaming that could be a feasible explanation. If other platforms have eroded core gaming to such a point it's just not very worthwhile. (meaning, lets say the top console is only selling 150k per month in NPD, and the others 50-70k) But, mind you, I'm certain at the very least they'll see XBO through. This would be in deciding a successor if at all..

Eh, I don't see other platforms ever eroding the console market unless you're talking about tablets/phones with enough horsepower to cast their images to large screens well enough and incorporate wireless console-type controllers into the mix.

And if that's the case, that is really just a question of cost. Why do the Xb0x and PS4 cost so much if tablets and phones could offer competitive graphics on large screens? For the phone market, at least in the US, the answer is that nobody actually pays $600-$800 for a phone - they are mostly subsidized, but that is only really a situation that exists in the US. And it doesn't apply to tablets, which people buy at full retail price.

If a $600 tablet can be connected via bluetooth to a console-like controller and cast wirelessly (or even connected via hdmi) to large screen TVs and offer Xb0x/PS4 level graphics then clearly the consoles would have a difficult time competing.

But you have to ask yourself why the consoles that do so much less than the tablets and can have larger form factors, more power, etc would cost so much and offer so little (comparatively).

And if you aren't talking about that, rather instead, talking about people playing on their phones or tablets directly rather than consoles, I don't think that those devices are eating into the console gaming market. In fact, I think I've read that more people identify themselves as "gamers" as ever before because they game on phones and tablets. And I think those are going to be gateways to actually create a larger console buying market as those people who identify themselves as gamers look for increased immersion and better experiences.

 

[Entropy]

And I think those are going to be gateways to actually create a larger console buying market as those people who identify themselves as gamers look for increased immersion and better experiences.

The proof of the pudding, as always, is in the eating.
And none of us have anything but indications yet for the present generation. However, there are indications, and they point rather consistently to a shrinking console market compared to last generation.
Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo have rather different reasons to be in the console market in the first place, and for Microsoft entering the console market has had two main motivations, one was/is to block consoles from uncontestedly eating into their home PC market, and the other is to create a vector into the living room for more general media consumption. However, at this point in time both of these are largely irrelevant. The home is taken over by mobile devices, not stationary gaming consoles.
So why, exactly, should Microsoft keep investing money and human resources in a shrinking market, rather than look for bigger fish to fry with better prospects for ROI? Zune, anyone?

I don't see how anyone can believe that the Xbox can miss sales targets without it eventually having consequences.

 

[Megadrive1988]

Not necessarily. Current gen hardware sales, post initial-surge, are a bit troubling.

I think if MS ever gets out of gaming that could be a feasible explanation. If other platforms have eroded core gaming to such a point it's just not very worthwhile. (meaning, lets say the top console is only selling 150k per month in NPD, and the others 50-70k) But, mind you, I'm certain at the very least they'll see XBO through. This would be in deciding a successor if at all.

It has begun

Industrial Designer - Microsoft Devices Group - Xbox Industrial Design (881677)

The Xbox Industrial Design studio is building a world class in house team. We love entertainment. We live for building transformative entertainment experiences that resonate with consumers. We are looking for passionate designers who want to help us create next generation entertainment hardware for Microsoft.
Primary Responsibilities
This is a design position within the Xbox industrial design studio. You will be joining a team that drives vision and product development for Xbox hardware programs. The right candidate will be a “hands on” individual contributor that will bring thought leadership, inspirational creative output, and passion to the Xbox entertainment space. In essence, this position requires nothing less than a “super creator”.
As an industrial designer you will collaborate with design team and bring inventive ideas which will have large impact across the Xbox Entertainment Business.
We expect a spontaneous and innovative creative process that takes advantage of consumer insight harvesting, inspiration way-finding, 3d sketching, prototyping, thoughtful consideration
of business needs, and understanding of technical considerations. Above all the candidate should have a portfolio that demonstrates the ability to design soulful product experiences that delight consumers.
Requirements
- 1-5 years of experience in product design
- 1-5 years of industrial design experience working for a top tier design team or organization required.
- All-star designer in storytelling, form giving, sketching, 3d modeling, color, material, and finish.
- Proven track record delivering award winning design.
- Exemplary communication and presentation skills.
- Intrinsic passion for seamless hardware/software experiences.
- Ability to collaborate with design, development, and executive management teams.
- Proficiency in creative tools such as Adobe CS5, Keyshot.
- Proficient in 3D applications (Alias, Rhino, Solidworks, or Pro/E)
- Education requirements include BA/BS or Master's Degree in industrial design
- Willing to travel overseas 10-15 percent.

https://careers.microsoft.com/jobdetails.aspx?ss=&pg=0&so=&rw=1&jid=143885&jlang=EN

Senior Software Development Engineer

The Xbox Platform Developer Experience team is hiring! We own the core development tools for the Xbox console platform, and we serve as a driving advocate for the end-to-end developer customer experience across the program. We are looking for an exceptional SDE to help us take game development tools to the next level.
Game developers, from AAA studios to Indie shops, have unique and exacting needs. Just think about the factors involved: Game titles are only growing in cost and complexity with each new generation. These days the projects will involve scores of engineers and hundreds of artists. They have budgets and production values that rival Hollywood blockbusters. They have 10’s of gigabytes of content, code tuned to get the utmost from our platform, and holiday release dates that won’t move.
The Xbox ecosystem only thrives if these partners succeed. Our goal is to help them make better games, faster.
The ideal candidate is flexible, self-motivated and a great team player. Successful candidates will also have most or all of the following attributes:
• 6+ years of software development experience with demonstrated technical excellence
• Excellent design and coding skills in C/C++
• Proven commitment to delivering on schedule, with extremely high quality
• Ability to work both independently and collaboratively in a fast-paced, open office environment
• Experience with and passion for development tools and overall developer experience
• Experience delivering versioned, backwards-compatible APIs and functional components
• BS/MS in Computer Science or equivalent preferred but not required
Other skills that would be a huge bonus:
• Proficient in WPF/GUI/UX technologies
• Experience with debugger internals and low-level debugging hooks/APIs
• Experience with and passion for platform/OS code and performance analysis

https://careers.microsoft.com/jobde...&rw=1&jid=140751&jlang=EN&pp=SS&WT.tsrc=Scoop

Other sites are picking up on this too:

http://wccftech.com/microsoft-super-creator-next-xbox-console-aiming-boost-game-dev-tools/
http://www.tweaktown.com/news/38997...l-designer-for-a-new-next-gen-xbox/index.html

 

[Rangers]

The proof of the pudding, as always, is in the eating.
And none of us have anything but indications yet for the present generation. However, there are indications, and they point rather consistently to a shrinking console market compared to last generation.
Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo have rather different reasons to be in the console market in the first place, and for Microsoft entering the console market has had two main motivations, one was/is to block consoles from uncontestedly eating into their home PC market, and the other is to create a vector into the living room for more general media consumption. However, at this point in time both of these are largely irrelevant. The home is taken over by mobile devices, not stationary gaming consoles.
So why, exactly, should Microsoft keep investing money and human resources in a shrinking market, rather than look for bigger fish to fry with better prospects for ROI? Zune, anyone?

I don't see how anyone can believe that the Xbox can miss sales targets without it eventually having consequences.

Where is Xbox missing sales targets? It's actually well ahead of 360 so far. What even are those targets? I hate generic doom sounding statements like that...

So far it looks like Xbox One is perhaps headed to 1/3 (core) market share, with PS4 at 2/3 (with very much subject to change). I dont know that MS couldn't live just fine and profitably with that this gen. It could do worse than 360, while well better than 2001 Xbox, and still comfortable.

Also, "Zune anyone", is unfortunately placed, as it was one of those products probably touted as a "better ROI". MS has plenty of products with much worse ROI than Xbox. So if you leave Xbox to chase something else, it will probably have much worse ROI than Xbox (like, Zune), judging by Microsoft's non Windows/Office history.

Actually I've always kind of felt a core gaming console is really hard to tie into anything else, and unfortunately is pretty self contained. However, if you turn on a Xbox One I have to admit MS have done a pretty admirable job with it. The UI is just like 8/Windows Phone etc, Bing is all up in your face (it's how they want you to search for content on Xbox), IE is all up in your face (actually as surprisingly smooth as a TV browsing experience on a controller can be in 1080P imo), Xbox music/videos is in your face, etc etc.

 

[Dave Baumann]

Where is Xbox missing sales targets? It's actually well ahead of 360 so far. What even are those targets? I hate generic doom sounding statements like that...

Yeah, unless I've missed some statements somewhere, I'm not sure how people know what the business plan was for any of the vendors. You may point to the changes in the platform (i.e. Kinect removal) but that doesn't necessarily point lacking vs their plan, it can just be a reaction to the competitive landscape.

As for Entropy's points about the CEO speaking about XBOX in relation to the other services - yes, that's exactly what you would do if you want to convince those investors that calling for the removal of the business; state "OK, you may not think its core, but this is how that business serves the direction that we're going".

 

[Rangers]

Yeah, unless I've missed some statements somewhere, I'm not sure how people know what the business plan was for any of the vendors. You may point to the changes in the platform (i.e. Kinect removal) but that doesn't necessarily point lacking vs their plan, it can just be a reaction to the competitive landscape.

Here's the most up to date data we have so far vs 360. Obviously subject to change and caveats, but all we can do at some point is look at the numbers.

Shipments through first 6 months (roughly proxy for worldwide sales)

X1=5.1 million
X360=3.2 million

NPD sales from launch through first May:

X1=2.718 million
X360=1.725 million

Has X1 slowed a lot after a hot start? Yeah. But at some point the numbers are the numbers and all we can go on. Also, $399 SKU is likely to boost X1 back up to at least some degree going forward, etc etc.

In two weeks we should have interesting updates to both these numbers for X1. July 17 June NPD, ~July 24 I assume, a quarterly ship number for April-June. Interestingly X360 shipped 1.8m from April-June 2006, so even if X1 ships zero in that period it will remain ahead (but for that matter, it could be a pretty bad ship quarter for X1 anyway, but absolute worst case imo might be 500k). My analysis would suggest X1 definitely stays ahead of 360 shipments for their first respective 12 months on the market, beyond that it gets too murky to project really.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Has X1 slowed a lot after a hot start? Yeah. But at some point the numbers are the numbers and all we can go on.

There are alternative numbers to look at too, though. Plot monthly change for both XB1 and XB360. If one shows rapidly decreasing monthly sales and the other showed increasing sales, it'd point to very different long-term outcomes. When trying to predict the future, trends are more important than milestones.

One can also point to MS's recent moves regards dropping Kinect for a lower price and giving $75 incentives. Did XB360 have similar, or are this unique and suggestive of trying to drum up interest by adjusting the value proposition?

Note I have no opinion on XB1's sales performance or MS's targets - I'm only playing devil's advocate in considering the correct way to approach an attempt at interpretation.

 

[Dave Baumann]

One can also point to MS's recent moves regards dropping Kinect for a lower price and giving $75 incentives. Did XB360 have similar, or are this unique and suggestive of trying to drum up interest by adjusting the value proposition?

I already addressed that - these can be competitively driven. Unless MS comes out and says they are behind plan for all we know they could be ahead of their plan. This may not be as unlikely as it seems as 360 launched with two price categories down from where One launched.

 

[AzBat]

There are alternative numbers to look at too, though. Plot monthly change for both XB1 and XB360. If one shows rapidly decreasing monthly sales and the other showed increasing sales, it'd point to very different long-term outcomes. When trying to predict the future, trends are more important than milestones.

One can also point to MS's recent moves regards dropping Kinect for a lower price and giving $75 incentives. Did XB360 have similar, or are this unique and suggestive of trying to drum up interest by adjusting the value proposition?

Note I have no opinion on XB1's sales performance or MS's targets - I'm only playing devil's advocate in considering the correct way to approach an attempt at interpretation.

Only problem with showing monthly change is that the 360 didn't have the PS3 to compete with its first year. We also know the Xbox 360 was supply constrained for at least the 1st 4 months. So showing that would probably be quite a bit biased against the XB1 as we already know that the XB1 did decline month to month.

Tommy McClain

 

[Shifty Geezer]

That's true. It's generally pretty difficult to derive meaningful information from unrelated figures, which is why people should avoid jumping to conclusions!

 

[Cyan]

The proof of the pudding, as always, is in the eating.
And none of us have anything but indications yet for the present generation. However, there are indications, and they point rather consistently to a shrinking console market compared to last generation.
Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo have rather different reasons to be in the console market in the first place, and for Microsoft entering the console market has had two main motivations, one was/is to block consoles from uncontestedly eating into their home PC market, and the other is to create a vector into the living room for more general media consumption. However, at this point in time both of these are largely irrelevant. The home is taken over by mobile devices, not stationary gaming consoles.
So why, exactly, should Microsoft keep investing money and human resources in a shrinking market, rather than look for bigger fish to fry with better prospects for ROI? Zune, anyone?

I don't see how anyone can believe that the Xbox can miss sales targets without it eventually having consequences.

Well, missing a market which moves as much money -if not more- than the entire cinema industry might not be a good idea.

Nintendo are having a terrible difficult time with the WiiU but they might have another hit coming despite WiiU's so so start.

I learnt from personal experience than patience is key in business. There are business that don't start to be slightly profitable til 3 or 4 years. And then you have a business for a lifetime.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Unless MS comes out and says they are behind plan for all we know they could be ahead of their plan.

Pulling numbers such as 115k or 77k in April and May and being significantly behind WW could be ahead of their plan? That hypothetical plan sounds quite crappy to me. Yusuf Mehdi thought this console gen can sell up to 1 billion units, hard to get there by pulling 100k in your strongest market... Maybe MS expects some new player to come in and sell 850 million units.

 

[Dave Baumann]

Pulling numbers such as 115k or 77k in April and May and being significantly behind WW could be ahead of their plan?

Simply put, yes, because you don't know what the plan was. Even falling behind [the plan] on individual months may still be ahead of the plan. Additionally, the plan will be looking into the cycle where the peaks tend to happen a few years in.

A plan is based on a TAM, your expectations on competitiveness and expectations on the size of the TAM at different price brackets, and often none of these are exact sciences, especially in a market that has such an infrequent refresh cycle by such a few vendors. Given the numbers that have sold for both consoles so far I'd say that the biggest surprise would be the TAM at launch for $399+ consoles, something that they couldn't fully gauge from 360 because they were supply constrained; that's how you can still be behind competitively yet potentially ahead of a sales / business plan.

So, yes, to me it is entirely conceivable that it is potentially ahead of their plan for this point in time if the original plan had more conservative numbers based on supply constrained 360 sales numbers and a higher console launch price.

 

[SlimJim]

I read somewhere that during the 360 lifetime, never did the factories halt production. That tells us something as well

 

[BRiT]

I read somewhere that during the 360 lifetime, never did the factories halt production. That tells us something as well

It only indicates that today's supply capacity is not limited.

 

[SlimJim]

It only indicates that today's supply capacity is not limited.

Or that supply far exceeds demand.
If MicroSoft had anticipated that after launch, they would only sell 200.000 worldwide a month.. to retailers, would they have arranged for 1.000.000 a month factory production capacity? I think that would be rather expensive.

 

[zed]

Well, missing a market which moves as much money -if not more- than the entire cinema industry might not be a good idea.

I hear this often but its BS

they usually compare all gaming vs just box office

i.e. they ignore dvds/bluray buying/rental/moviestreaming/tv subscription etc etc

eg
NPD reports USA spent on gaming buying/digital/rental = $15.39 billion 2013
USA 2013 boxoffice $10.9 billion + $18 billion (dvd/rental) + ....

 

[dobwal]

I read somewhere that during the 360 lifetime, never did the factories halt production. That tells us something as well

Well, the 360 experienced a similar fall in shipments once the Wii and PS3 launched. They only shipped something like 1.2 million 360 between Jan 07 and June 07. They had stuffed the channel with 4.4 million the previous quarter.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

I think the problem of the new consoles is software. The vendors have managed to figure out the hardware side relatively well, but they were unable to find ways to speed up software development. The games we've seen so far are little more than shinier versions of PS360 releases, also held back by cross platform limitations.

This is going to change in the holiday season and we've already seen very promising titles like ACU, Witcher 3 and COD AW. These are almost certainly going to move hardware much better than the current lineup. Then we're going to see a couple of truly nextgen exclusives like The Order and Quantum Break next spring, and the next E3 is going to show Halo 5 and Uncharted 4.
Also, these upcming games are probably going to be enough even with just a first gameplay demo to convince customers about the hardware's potential; and then we may even see some price cuts that could bring the consoles to the $300 level.

Then there's the room for technological innovation; Sebbi's points on compute based rendering opening new possibilities for titles with rewritten renderers suggests that such titles should be able to offer a more obvious step up from current games relying on previous gen approaches. And there's the possibility of VR, and whatever new tech may become available.

So this discussion is kinda premature IMHO. This generation will probably also last far more than 5 years, again, so there's plenty of time to build a customer base. As we all should know, console business is not about making money on the hardware, it's about the software sales.

 

[Rangers]

Since this seems fun...

Yeah, looks like 360 has some weak times ahead, in 2007.

Couple notes to keep in mind, 360 did not sell THAT much better than Xbox as the 80+million versus 25 million suggests. 360 had an 8 year lifespan, versus 4 for Xbox.

I guess to say, 360 sales are not just some stupendous bar to clear.

Another thing to keep in mind, over it's life, 360 worldwide shipped almost exactly twice as many as it NPD sold in the USA. ~84m shipped at ~42m NPD sold.

Although that ratio can vary for any given quarter, it ratio will probably roughly hold for X1, and it gives you an idea what X1 needs to be selling per NPD month to hit X360 ship numbers.

For example if X1 needs to ship 1.3 million to match 360 in a quarter, then it needs to sell about 650k in the USA in that time. Divided by 3 months, and average of 217k per month. So forth and so on.

Anyways yeah, the 360 numbers dont look tough. Really it's strongest year was 2011, which shows what a long haul this is.