News & Rumors: Xbox One (codename Durango)

[Jwm]

@Grall - currently with the 360 we have zero need for a remote control, granted our phone and controller take the place of it. With the 360 media center app, and other video on demand my wife does not ever use the tv remote. Phone app gives us the complete DVR guide on our htpc, not an ms phone app but ties fully into windows media center.

So our 360 now is an excellent media hub, it is the center of several of our rooms. Smartglass allows my family to play music from the main speakers in each room without even firing up a projector or tv.

As a gamer I benefit, I have several places to game so I do not mind our home using the 360 as that hub. It never takes anything away from me, so I don't view better features of the 720 as being bad.

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[MrSpiggott]

I'm also struggling to think of any killer app feature with HDMI in that isn't only going to be targeted solely to single home owners.
If I suddenly interrupted a TV programming and opened up a Skype window I'd soon get shouted at by my wife! Especially when I can do the same thing on a tablet or phone instead.
And there's very little meta data on broadcast tv so I don't see how you could incorporate the feed in any meaningful way. You'd need third party live data of some kind, in which case just stream this data to a tablet, this wouldn't obscure the image or annoy anybody else.

 

[patsu]

It would be new use cases like pausing a live TV (or movie) to buy the same bag the actress is holding, and then go back to live TV again. All driven from Kinect. It should not be a simple overlay.

MS has an interactive TV division for decades now. I would be surprised if they can't pull it off.

In general, these triple and quad play ideas should become more mainstream. It is possible that Google and Apple are heading there as we speak.

 

[MrSpiggott]

It would be new use cases like pausing a live TV (or movie) to buy the same bag the actress is holding, and then go back to live TV again. All driven from Kinect. It should not be a simple overlay.

But that's not a new use case. We've been able to freeze live TV for years on most set top boxes. Useful yes, but not a killer app.
And again, what about every body else in the room? Maybe they are enjoying the program and don't want it paused so you can search for a hand bag. Streaming this data to a tablet solves these issues.

 

[patsu]

The interactive part (e.g., tap on an in-video object to query) is new to minstream users when authored into live TV (like sports) and movies.

 

[wco81]

Maybe the most obvious case would be a DVR. But they'd have to have a lot of storage with it.

 

[ramr]

The new 360 is going to be a PS2 slim like repackage, MS are hoping to replicate the long tail of the PS2.

I'd have thought they would have just repackaged the 360 SoC into their XboxTV device but I'm guessing they couldn't do that because Win8/RT doesn't run on PPC.

So it looks like by the end of the year or 2014, there'll be 3 Xbox devices on market
1. the new Xbox (Durango)
2. Xbox TV
3. Xbox 360 Super slim

As a strategy professional, this pre-reveal time is very fascinating as I try to work out the logic of the various possibilities being bandied about. From a technology perspective, 2013 is the worst possible year to launch. If durango specs are correct, it should have launched last november. (interesting thought that has no basis in reality but would be a true awesome piece of competitive strategy - what if everything we know about durango is a massive feint designed to force sony to launch a overly expensive and underpowered console compared to a 2014 durango with all of the tech improvements coming next year)

Some things seem reasonably certain - some form of 360ss, Xbox Tv, next-gen system, and Xbox surface. Given Ballmer's statement regarding MS is a Hardware company now, what if the xbox family looks something like this.

Xbox TV < $99 RT based media player for every screen in the house, plays WP8 level games
360SS flash-based - $99 to $129 w/DVD can function as xbox tv and also plays 360 games
Xbox Surface $199- Fire level tablet, media extender, games machine, and can play streamed games
durango - $299 with Kinect, Xbox next, specs leaked are correct, real game performance just below orbis, modest streaming capabilities
Surface Server - $499 or $599 initially, launch in 14, massive streaming capability, i.e multiple surface or TVs at once, full benefit of 14 technology advances combined with durango architecture advances, 1/2 gen ahead of orbis.

 

[ramr]

Eh... the PS4/720 will not be costing $300. $399 minimum. Besides, the market for the current 360/PS3 is completely different from those in 2005, they are extremely price conscious, otherwise they would have bought one in the 7 years these consoles have been in the market! They're never going to consider something for $400, and even the $300 for current consoles is too much, but $200 might be attractive for a model with a hard drive (the 4GB 360 does not count).

If durango specs are correct, then I expect $299 base model and perhaps a $399 model with bigger HD and possible hardware BC. I also wouldn't be surprised to see $99 with 2 year live at $15/month.

 

[Jwm]

Maybe the most obvious case would be a DVR. But they'd have to have a lot of storage with it.

Agreed, we have over 2tb set aside, so usb drives would be a must. An F1 race is ~20gb for example, with a whole weekend of F1 nearer 75gb for all sessions. Maybe xbox Tv would be a 1tb device and uses the hdmi pass-through on durango.

 

[dagamer]

I'm also struggling to think of any killer app feature with HDMI in that isn't only going to be targeted solely to single home owners.
If I suddenly interrupted a TV programming and opened up a Skype window I'd soon get shouted at by my wife! Especially when I can do the same thing on a tablet or phone instead.
And there's very little meta data on broadcast tv so I don't see how you could incorporate the feed in any meaningful way. You'd need third party live data of some kind, in which case just stream this data to a tablet, this wouldn't obscure the image or annoy anybody else.

Picture in picture. Large screen for TV, small PIP for video chat. Also need the ability to seamlessly handoff to another phone, tablet, etc with Skype installed.

 

[patsu]

Picture in picture. Large screen for TV, small PIP for video chat. Also need the ability to seamlessly handoff to another phone, tablet, etc with Skype installed.

The ability to add a separate/additional interactive layer to a DVD or streaming video app is also compatible with the display plane concept. I suspect it will become more mainstream when cable companies push interactive cable more.

EDIT: You can do it with pure software too of course.

 

[expletive]

I'm also struggling to think of any killer app feature with HDMI in that isn't only going to be targeted solely to single home owners.
If I suddenly interrupted a TV programming and opened up a Skype window I'd soon get shouted at by my wife! Especially when I can do the same thing on a tablet or phone instead.
And there's very little meta data on broadcast tv so I don't see how you could incorporate the feed in any meaningful way. You'd need third party live data of some kind, in which case just stream this data to a tablet, this wouldn't obscure the image or annoy anybody else.

Part of the setup of the Durango (if you wanted to use the HDMI in) would be to give your ZIP code and cable provider so it will know what your channels are, and whats on them.

Let's say you want to watch a movie
"Xbox, find me 'the avengers'" The xbox could then come back with results of what digital services you can buy or rent it on (xbox movies,vudu), if its on netflix for streaming, AND when and what channels its on your cable subscription.

If you don't want to pay to stream it immediately (since you get it for 'free' with your cable subscription), you can have the xbox schedule your DVR to record it, schedule the DVR to tune to that channel at that time and record it via the HDMI in.

You can also set the Durango to not interrupt certain functions with calls, alerts, etc. I believe the 360 already can do this when you are watching movies.

 

[Jwm]

Media Center already does parts of this, so tying it together in a complete package with Kinect is possible and could explain why they have ignored the media center fan complaints.

On the flip side MS thinks they did a great job marketing media center in the past, and never got the mass market numbers that they wanted. So will they improve it with Durango or did they give up already?

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[Hardknock]

As a strategy professional, this pre-reveal time is very fascinating as I try to work out the logic of the various possibilities being bandied about. From a technology perspective, 2013 is the worst possible year to launch. If durango specs are correct, it should have launched last november. (interesting thought that has no basis in reality but would be a true awesome piece of competitive strategy - what if everything we know about durango is a massive feint designed to force sony to launch a overly expensive and underpowered console compared to a 2014 durango with all of the tech improvements coming next year)

Some things seem reasonably certain - some form of 360ss, Xbox Tv, next-gen system, and Xbox surface. Given Ballmer's statement regarding MS is a Hardware company now, what if the xbox family looks something like this.

Xbox TV < $99 RT based media player for every screen in the house, plays WP8 level games
360SS flash-based - $99 to $129 w/DVD can function as xbox tv and also plays 360 games
Xbox Surface $199- Fire level tablet, media extender, games machine, and can play streamed games
durango - $299 with Kinect, Xbox next, specs leaked are correct, real game performance just below orbis, modest streaming capabilities
Surface Server - $499 or $599 initially, launch in 14, massive streaming capability, i.e multiple surface or TVs at once, full benefit of 14 technology advances combined with durango architecture advances, 1/2 gen ahead of orbis.

In this situation developers would have to create scalable software to take advantage of this "surface server" and I unfortunately don't see that happening.

 

[AlphaWolf]

In this situation developers would have to create scalable software to take advantage of this "surface server" and I unfortunately don't see that happening.

Why would developers need to do anything? It just sounds like streaming the game to a tablet.

 

[expletive]

Media Center already does parts of this, so tying it together in a complete package with Kinect is possible and could explain why they have ignored the media center fan complaints.

On the flip side MS thinks they did a great job marketing media center in the past, and never got the mass market numbers that they wanted. So will they improve it with Durango or did they give up already?

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I dont think they've given up on it because it still is an option in Windows 8, but i do think the opportunity for the home TV server is probably past and MS knows this (even though i actually have a WMC server with a cable card and streaming to 360s all over my house).

At this point, this HDMI in will serve as a bridge to the time when all the content is delivered to your Durango via data (i.e. ethernet, wifi). Cable companies probably view being in the hardware business as a necessary evil for the most part, and providers like Verizon are already moving the portal of their services to an xbox app. Eventually the entire functionality of their DVRs/STBs will be in an xbox app and the DVR will be cloud based.

Not all cable providers are that far along in the roadmap there, but they all have STBs with HDMI out, so thats where the HDMI in comes into play. Its basically 'legacy' support for where we will be in 5 years from now, but also making it easy now for consumers to slowly migrate to the xbox platform for all their entertainment needs.

 

[bkilian]

MS once did had a custom IBM CPU in development, which then was taped out in December 2011. But bad yields resulted to a switch to AMD x86 architecture then, I suppose.

No, they didn't.

 

[Gubbi]

Xbox TV < $99 RT based media player for every screen in the house, plays WP8 level games
360SS flash-based - $99 to $129 w/DVD can function as xbox tv and also plays 360 games
Xbox Surface $199- Fire level tablet, media extender, games machine, and can play streamed games
durango - $299 with Kinect, Xbox next, specs leaked are correct, real game performance just below orbis, modest streaming capabilities
Surface Server - $499 or $599 initially, launch in 14, massive streaming capability, i.e multiple surface or TVs at once, full benefit of 14 technology advances combined with durango architecture advances, 1/2 gen ahead of orbis.

That's five completely different SKUs. There is zero synergy between them. It would be a complete disaster.

Cheers

 

[ramr]

In this situation developers would have to create scalable software to take advantage of this "surface server" and I unfortunately don't see that happening.

MS is always yammering about forward compatibility so ...

 

[ramr]

That's five completely different SKUs. There is zero synergy between them. It would be a complete disaster.

Cheers

And this is why people should leave strategy to the professionals. Have you never heard of market segmentation? That is a full-blown ecosystem designed for domination of the home entertainment market with massive synergy across components.

Is that the reality? probably not, but it does unify the various rumors that have some legs behind them into a rational plan to take the home market.