News & Rumors: Xbox One (codename Durango)

[function]

Someone brought it up before. The Alienware X51 is absolutely huge by console standards (even bigger than a launch PS3!!) and it has an external power brick. And it's noisy under load (unlike the now-successful 360S and PS3 Slim).

An "optimised" solution like the launch PS3 had is horribly expensive and even then can generate unwelcome levels of noise and that only drew about ~220W under load. And consoles have much tighter margins than the Alienware X51.

If anything the Alienware X51 is proof of just how bad an idea chasing thermal output higher would be for consoles. Look at what worked this generation and look at what didn't. Hardware enthusiast Wattage boners won't pay company bills.

 

[Prophecy2k]

Fan size isn't much of an issue because you don't neccessarily need to design the console with your fan attached to the inside face of the external console shell.

Take a look at the PS3 cooling design. The fan is orientated internally parrallel to the PCB in a steel finned metal chamber over the chips/heat sink. The fan drives air through the internal chamber and then out through vents on the front face of the console. It's a very good design and produced less noise as the design of the duct chamber can be such that it supresses fan noise as much as possible by ensuring an avoidance of choked flow through the air flow path. The downside is that the design requires alot of metal in the chamber housing, hence the extra weight which also adds to shipping costs etc.

Point is a console cooling system design can be made much more effiecient than PC case cooling.

 

[Brad Grenz]

Yeah, the cooler design for the PS3 is actually really impressive. That's the kind of stuff Sony is tops at. They take pride in the design and efficiency of their thermal management and power source, etc.

 

[Rangers]

Someone brought it up before. The Alienware X51 is absolutely huge by console standards (even bigger than a launch PS3!!) and it has an external power brick. And it's noisy under load (unlike the now-successful 360S and PS3 Slim).

An "optimised" solution like the launch PS3 had is horribly expensive and even then can generate unwelcome levels of noise and that only drew about ~220W under load. And consoles have much tighter margins than the Alienware X51.

If anything the Alienware X51 is proof of just how bad an idea chasing thermal output higher would be for consoles. Look at what worked this generation and look at what didn't. Hardware enthusiast Wattage boners won't pay company bills.

"absolutely huge"? http://www.pinoytechnologies.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/x51.png

As I said before who is going to be like "Oh, Ps3 ok, but forget that giant Alienware". I'd rather have the Alienware cause although larger, its stackable on top under the entertainment center, a major drawback to PS3's shape imo.

Most of all though the X51 isn't a 10th as optimized as a console will be, it's literally off the shelf parts including the GPU. The GPU is literally shoved into a riser card.

I doubt it's noiser than launch 360 either. PS3 was expensive because of Blu Ray.

Anyways X51 vs Durango vs 8 millionth heating/cooling discussion is OT I guess. I dont know.

If Durango is X51 sized I have zero problem with it, nor will most early adapters I feel. Definitely given a choice between smaller/weaker and X51 size/better, I and I think 95% of others (all of the 5% will chime in and reply now) would take the latter.

 

[function]

Fan size isn't much of an issue because you don't neccessarily need to design the console with your fan attached to the inside face of the external console shell.

Take a look at the PS3 cooling design. The fan is orientated internally parrallel to the PCB in a steel finned metal chamber over the chips/heat sink. The fan drives air through the internal chamber and then out through vents on the front face of the console. It's a very good design and produced less noise as the design of the duct chamber can be such that it supresses fan noise as much as possible by ensuring an avoidance of choked flow through the air flow path. The downside is that the design requires alot of metal in the chamber housing, hence the extra weight which also adds to shipping costs etc.

Point is a console cooling system design can be made much more effiecient than PC case cooling.

And using the PS3 as an example you can see that even if you shoot for the moon and spend god knows how much on a cooler you still have to balance size, heat and noise. This is the PS3 launch cooler compared to the Slim:

http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/english/NEWS_EN/20090909/175049/

The launch cooler is massive and has to be very, very expensive. In the graphics card cost breakdown chart that someone posted a link to in the tech forum (don't have the link sorry, but do have the chart) you see the coolers for the 6850 / 6870 / 6950 / 6970 as coming in at $23.80. The GTX 580 cooler is listed at $33.93. The PS3 cooler is bigger, more complex and more heavily engineered than any stock PC GPU cooler I have ever seen. It's magnificent. And the PS3 only draws 220W at the wall under load.

I can not wait to see how fast a PS3 quality cooler would bankrupt the maker of a 400W console. I don't have numbers but I'm guessing it would be fast.

Actually, that GPU cost breakdown chart is pretty funny reading:
- GTX 580 cooler: $33.93
- GTX 560 Ti cooler: $5.20

50% more performance with 550% of the cooling costs. lol heatpipes.

 

[AlphaWolf]

If it only cost $25 for 50% more performance I don't think there would be a problem at all. The elaborate cooling requirement would likely be gone by year 3.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Well if you sell 30 million consoles in 3 years that amounts to 750 million in extra costs you have to recoup one way or another. Add in that it's not only the cooling which will cost more and before you know it you'll be spending 2 billion more just for 50% more gpu power. But I doubt we'll see 50% better graphics so you'll have to wonder if its worth all the extra money.

 

[AlphaWolf]

So $250 million cheaper than writing off $1 billion because of a inadequate cooling. Seriously though, how much is 50% more performance worth in terms of sales?

Also by year 3 I meant 2 years + 1 day. The 360 started shipping falcon motherboards with 65nm (I think that's the one after zephyr) after about 20 months on the market.

 

[joker454]

If it only cost $25 for 50% more performance I don't think there would be a problem at all. The elaborate cooling requirement would likely be gone by year 3.

I know old gen had steps going down from 90nm to 22nm, but are there any ideas what next gen will have as far as shrinkage? Presumably it will start at 22nm, but anyone know what is planned after that? The best I could find is this as far as currently available:

90 nm — 2002
65 nm — 2006
45 nm — 2008
32 nm — 2010
22 nm — 2011

... and this for what is coming:

16 nm — approx. 2013
11 nm — approx. 2015
6 nm — approx. 2020
4 nm — approx. 2022

If that is true then it means next gen will only realistically go from 22nm to 11nm during it's effective lifetime, which doesn't leave as much room for improvement compared to what this gen had.

 

[AlphaWolf]

There was a rumor last summer that Intel would go to 8nm in 2015 (skipping 11nm). Not that I believe Intel is a valid example for available process nodes for console development as it seems an unlikely choice.

I don't know that 22nm is that realistic a starting point unless we're talking late 2014.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

"absolutely huge"? http://www.pinoytechnologies.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/x51.png

As I said before who is going to be like "Oh, Ps3 ok, but forget that giant Alienware". I'd rather have the Alienware cause although larger, its stackable on top under the entertainment center, a major drawback to PS3's shape imo.

Most of all though the X51 isn't a 10th as optimized as a console will be, it's literally off the shelf parts including the GPU. The GPU is literally shoved into a riser card.

I doubt it's noiser than launch 360 either. PS3 was expensive because of Blu Ray.

Anyways X51 vs Durango vs 8 millionth heating/cooling discussion is OT I guess. I dont know.

If Durango is X51 sized I have zero problem with it, nor will most early adapters I feel. Definitely given a choice between smaller/weaker and X51 size/better, I and I think 95% of others (all of the 5% will chime in and reply now) would take the latter.

Sure, starting at 699 USD with a GTX 545 (quite significantly slower than the GTX 560 that was linked by almighty). A GTX 560 isn't even an option (too much heat/power). Moving up to a GTX 555 brings the cost close to 1000 USD.

To optimize it is going to cost money. Custom designs, custom coolers to deal with a small enclosure with limited options for cooling, etc.

ESPECIALLY if you want to get the noise down at load such that it isn't too loud for the home living room. People complained about the launch X360. This is probably even louder. Especially when moving up to a 4 core CPU with the GTX 555.

Oh yeah and tack on another 75-100 USD for a slim BRD drive (not an option on the Alienware).

I'm really not sure that is doing your point any favors. But at least we're starting to look in the right direction as instead of trying to fit Desktop parts into a presumed console, we're getting closer to looking at Notebook parts.

And as to the size, consumers have spoken. The original Xbox was roundly critized and shunned by many people in part due to how extremely large it was for a home console. MS spent considerable effort getting the launch X360 into a smaller enclosure. I'm going to bet neither Sony nor Microsoft are going to want something as large as the original Xbox.

Regards,
SB

 

[3dilettante]

If that is true then it means next gen will only realistically go from 22nm to 11nm during it's effective lifetime, which doesn't leave as much room for improvement compared to what this gen had.

There are some very big question marks for oncoming nodes, especially if you're not Intel.
Nvidia may be complaining the loudest, but the costs of design and manufacture are increasing much faster with each node.
If a design is not bankrupting you at 28nm--should that be economically viable for console mass production when they come out, there's no strong guarantee that you'll be better off shrinking for years.

If the "disappointing" to some rumors for the next gen are true, it may be a sign of extreme skittishness on this point.
This may start at 28nm and may not get past 16, if it gets that far.
Instead, lateral moves with different substrates or stacking are being talked about instead.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

If a design is not bankrupting you at 28nm--should that be economically viable for console mass production when they come out, there's no strong guarantee that you'll be better off shrinking for years.

And that possibility suggests one alternative strategy, which is to launch a moderate console at the current node, and release upgraded versions for the same cost at smaller nodes. Effectively give up on process-shrinks reducing price and instead upgrade the specs of the machine. At which point we may be looking at a $200 launch console that remains at $200 for 3 years, and is superceded by an improved $200 console, which is superceded by another $200 console. By which time maybe we'll be on streamed gaming anyhow, making a big-expensive box with a 7 year lifespan redundant in the fifth year?

 

[Rangers]

And as to the size, consumers have spoken. The original Xbox was roundly critized and shunned by many people in part due to how extremely large it was for a home console. MS spent considerable effort getting the launch X360 into a smaller enclosure. I'm going to bet neither Sony nor Microsoft are going to want something as large as the original Xbox.

Yet both the original PS3 and 360 were quite large, PS3 larger than the OG Xbox.

You didn't have a choice last gen and you wont this gen, you'll get something fairly big or you'll get a Wii (U).

 

[almighty]

I think what that we can say is that if they used off the shelf PC parts and put them all onto a single PCB they could end up with a much faster console then what is currently rumoured.

Heck there's some 45w Athlon 2 x4's around which would be ideal for consoles.

That would leave a good chunk of power and thermal budget left for a GPU.

5750
5770
GTX 450/550
GTX 340/330

All of those are a good chunk faster then a 6670/7670

There's literally loads of faster options available then what they have rumoured to of gone with.

Even the new 7850 only requires a single 6 pin PCIEX power plug.

 

[Prophecy2k]

And using the PS3 as an example you can see that even if you shoot for the moon and spend god knows how much on a cooler you still have to balance size, heat and noise. This is the PS3 launch cooler compared to the Slim:

http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/english/NEWS_EN/20090909/175049/

The launch cooler is massive and has to be very, very expensive. In the graphics card cost breakdown chart that someone posted a link to in the tech forum (don't have the link sorry, but do have the chart) you see the coolers for the 6850 / 6870 / 6950 / 6970 as coming in at $23.80. The GTX 580 cooler is listed at $33.93. The PS3 cooler is bigger, more complex and more heavily engineered than any stock PC GPU cooler I have ever seen. It's magnificent. And the PS3 only draws 220W at the wall under load.

I can not wait to see how fast a PS3 quality cooler would bankrupt the maker of a 400W console. I don't have numbers but I'm guessing it would be fast.

Actually, that GPU cost breakdown chart is pretty funny reading:
- GTX 580 cooler: $33.93
- GTX 560 Ti cooler: $5.20

50% more performance with 550% of the cooling costs. lol heatpipes.

Why are you comparing the cost of the entire PS3 cooling system with PC GPU cooling costs? The PS3 system cools the entire system, as well as the internal PSU.

Not an apples to apples comparison really.

 

[function]

Beggin' your pardon Guv'nor? I'm looking at the cost (as opposed to retail price on Amazon for example) of high capacity, custom coolers from a GPU cost breakdown analysis thing because that's the only place I can get them.

It's the only way I think we have we have of trying to estimate what a sophisticated cooling solution might cost MS or Sony. And if you look a the fan, the number of heatpipes, the number of joins in the metal, and the fact that the PS3 cooler has two contact point it seems possible or even probable that the PS3's bloody huge and amazingly elaborate cooler costs more than any of the expensive coolers I listed. And that cost doesn't include packaging costs, shipping costs, having a bigger case etc etc.

And the PS3 "only" draws 220W at the wall under load. It's relevant because people are talking about 300 ~ 400 ~ 500 W consoles and using the "custom cooler" thing as a get out for why the system will remain both small and quiet. I don't think anyone will want to one-up the PS3 launch cooler or the PS3 launch unit size, and I don't think anyone will want to ship something as awfully and monstrously loud as the 90nm 360s (even with the emergency GPU heatsink power-up).

PS3 Slim and the 360 Falcon are the kind of region where size, heat, noise, retail price and company losses all seemed to get under control - where the vendors weren't wrecking themselves trying to sell relatively small numbers of units.

 

[Prophecy2k]

Beggin' your pardon Guv'nor? I'm looking at the cost (as opposed to retail price on Amazon for example) of high capacity, custom coolers from a GPU cost breakdown analysis thing because that's the only place I can get them.

It's the only way I think we have we have of trying to estimate what a sophisticated cooling solution might cost MS or Sony. And if you look a the fan, the number of heatpipes, the number of joins in the metal, and the fact that the PS3 cooler has two contact point it seems possible or even probable that the PS3's bloody huge and amazingly elaborate cooler costs more than any of the expensive coolers I listed. And that cost doesn't include packaging costs, shipping costs, having a bigger case etc etc.

And the PS3 "only" draws 220W at the wall under load. It's relevant because people are talking about 300 ~ 400 ~ 500 W consoles and using the "custom cooler" thing as a get out for why the system will remain both small and quiet. I don't think anyone will want to one-up the PS3 launch cooler or the PS3 launch unit size, and I don't think anyone will want to ship something as awfully and monstrously loud as the 90nm 360s (even with the emergency GPU heatsink power-up).

PS3 Slim and the 360 Falcon are the kind of region where size, heat, noise, retail price and company losses all seemed to get under control - where the vendors weren't wrecking themselves trying to sell relatively small numbers of units.

I'm not disagreeing with you that the PS3 cooler would have been a sizeable cost for a system only drawing 220W at the wall. I'm just saying that trying to infer any hard numbers by looking at PC GPU cost breakdowns is questionable.

Not that i don't admire your attempts to do so. Perhaps your method has some merit, however unless we can find out from someone directly involved with the systems original design or manufacturing process, we can't really know how much of the PS3's overall cost was incurred by the cooling solution employed.

Your general point however, in terms of next-gen sysetm cooling solutions for possible power-hungry chips I fully agree with ;-)

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

PS3 Slim and the 360 Falcon are the kind of region where size, heat, noise, retail price and company losses all seemed to get under control - where the vendors weren't wrecking themselves trying to sell relatively small numbers of units.

Sure, but those were revisions, not launch units and we're discussing what is possible at launch.

I'm not sure why you are using the revised sizes that were capable after multiple die shrinks to try and predict what is possible for the NextBox launch. It doesn't make sense.

As was noted, the launch PS3 was larger than the Xbox. The 360 wasn't much smaller itself. Size isn't that big of a concern with launch units.

It appears that you are under the belief that the NextBox and PS4 will try to hit PS3 or 360 slim sizes at launch. Is that correct? Because I don't see any reasoning or evidence for that at all.

 

[AlphaWolf]

And the PS3 "only" draws 220W at the wall under load. It's relevant because people are talking about 300 ~ 400 ~ 500 W consoles and using the "custom cooler" thing as a get out for why the system will remain both small and quiet. I don't think anyone will want to one-up the PS3 launch cooler or the PS3 launch unit size, and I don't think anyone will want to ship something as awfully and monstrously loud as the 90nm 360s (even with the emergency GPU heatsink power-up).

It's okay they can put a high speed Blu-ray drive in it and no one will hear the fan, just like the 360.