Statistics juggling aside to get accurate sales windows etc. (we'd want to knock off the extra 6 months of PS2 sales), it's clear my feeling was wrong. ...I don't know that there's any info to be had here to help understand the market demographics breakdown either. That is, looking at these numbers we could say approximately all the console owners this gen are previous console owners - it's the same market size in the same period.
No you cannot in any scenario make ANY case about what the market demographics, or segments, look, based on any sales data that is out there. You would need to start question people when they buy a console in stores to find this out. The assumption of "all the console owners this gen are previous console owners" because of same sales level would pretty much get you laughed out of all places where people understand economics.
Shifty, why on earth do you think that costumers will buy the console at the same time period ever generation?
The only ones that will buy it at the same time every generation is the early adapters, the rest, follow the flow, since the flow flows different every year, whatever and whenever they buy a console, is largerly not correlated events.
Are you by any chance a marketing student? Because im stunned by the assumptions you make here in order to make your theories.
......
From the 40 million unit market of last gen in 2 years, within 2 years of this gen, 20 million have bought the 'conventional' experience that they were happy to buy last gen, n% has moved to Wii, and o% are new gamers that Wii has attracted, where n = 100-o. If o is large, then the last-gen market has shrunk considerably. Let's say 50% of Wii owners are the new casual market. That'd mean 10 million Wii owners are from this period last gen. So 40 million people bought into last-gen within 2 years and of that 40 million strong market, 30 million have bought into this gen within 2 years. The other 10 million is made up of new customers. Where are they? Why did they buy a new console in 2000-2002 but not buy a new console in 2005-2007? Too pricey? OR is the market the same, and the percentage of new casual Wii owners is actually very small, with the bulk being made up of existing gamers?
If last gen could sell 40 million units to 'gamers', why this gen hasn't 50 million been sold, to that same 40 million strong 'gamer' market plus a new 10 million 'casual gamers'?
How about this for a theory shifty.
1. People do not buy consoles at the same time every generation, with the exception of so called "early adapters".
2. When people buy a new console, is largely based on marketing and what your friends got, this things change constantly.
3. PEOPLE GROW UP. An average gamer back in 2002 was 20 or so. Now they are 25. The older you get, the less games you play, less console you buy. People get older, as kids get older, they get more into video games, and get money to buy consoles. Therefore it natural to assume that large groups of potential new console buyers, are simply replacing the ones from the past.
4. WITHOUT ACTUALLY STANDING WITH A QUESTION FORM OF SOME SORT AND PASSING IT OUT TO A SAMPLE POPULATION THAT IS LARGE ENOUGH AND WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO BE A STATISTICALLY GOOD SAMPLE OF THE POPULATION WE ARE MEASURING , ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL YOU HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE "NEW" TO THE GAMING SCENE.
Because of the facts presented in 1-4, i cincerely hope you will be able to see how invalid your theory is. And how its completely a vaste of time to try and answer most of your questions from this theorem of yours, as the post itself has waaay to many flawed assumptions to hold anything of value.
