PS4/XBOne launch sales numbers

[BRiT]

Sarcasm?

I agree with silly though.

Nope, not being silly or sarcastic or trolling. I just don't see the common gamer wanting to go with the Xbox One. I'm also putting more weight on regions outside of Xbox 360's stronghold of the US. I think from a marketing perspective for common gamers that the PS4 has hit a grand-slam.

I truly think there will be a wide wide margin of at least in the range of 3:1 favoring the PS4.

 

[djskribbles]

I can maybe see the PS4 in a 3:1 lead by the end of the year, but not by the end of November. Unless Sony allocated a lot more units to Europe than they did the US (like around double), but I find that unlikely.

 

[AzBat]

Not sure I see MS winning NPD hardware in November. XB1 released a week later than PS4. Only way is if they are able to sell more 360s during Black Friday. Walmart has the $99 Xbox 360 E 4gb & the $149 PS3 12gb. It's possible, but I think MS should have launched a week earlier than PS4 to have a chance at beating Sony in November. And I don't think they can win December either way.

Tommy McClain

 

[Arwin]

360 owned the US 2:1, so if we see anything like 1:1 now that is already a big coup for Sony.

 

[Gerry]

I truly think there will be a wide wide margin of at least in the range of 3:1 favoring the PS4.

With the supply constraints that apply to both of the next-gen consoles I genuinely think that prediction is impossible.

The PS4 will sell more, I think that much is clear, but MS are going to sell just about every console they make till the end of the year; so unless Sony have found a way to make PS4s appear from thin air I just can't see it.

 

[temesgen]

XB1 launched in 13 territories but I always felt that was somewhat strategic, MS knows they will sell everything they have at launch and the talking points coming out of November probably are more important to them then Sony since the US is their primary market and some of the 360 owners are in play. If they hear that MS won NPD perhaps they settle a bit and buy an XB1 rather than go for PS4. MS needs a good headline and selling more units in US gives them one that nobody can question.

My guess is Sony and MS produced similar numbers of consoles but MS will allocate more for US and initially focus on shoring up their core market and worry about Europe and Asia later.

Edit: Worldwide I think Brit is correct but simply put if you have 2 pies both cut it into 6 slices MS most likely put 2 or 3 slices from their pie in the US whereas Sony evenly distributed their slices around the table.

 

[Bagel seed]

3:1 is a bit of a stretch. I can see somewhere between 1.5 and 2 being a possibility though. At roughly 1 mil consoles produced per month since Aug, that would put them at 3 mil currently, with a bit more coming towards the end of the year. MS ships 1 mil for launch and another mil+ for the rest of the year while Sony hits at least 1 mil for the PAL launch next week with a further 1-1.5 mil to round off the year meeting their 3 mil internal forecast.

 

[temesgen]

3:1 is a bit of a stretch. I can see somewhere between 1.5 and 2 being a possibility though. At roughly 1 mil consoles produced per month since Aug, that would put them at 3 mil currently, with a bit more coming towards the end of the year. MS ships 1 mil for launch and another mil+ for the rest of the year while Sony hits at least 1 mil for the PAL launch next week with a further 1-1.5 mil to round off the year meeting their 3 mil internal forecast.

Why can't MS produce consoles as quickly as Sony??? Both platforms should be supply constrained for while.

The real question is how do they allocate their production for consumers in various territories. My guess is MS pays to have these flown to the US and we continue to see XB1s all thru the holiday in the US. Of course they will have supply in their other markets but not anything like what we see here. Sony OTOH probably shipped their PS4s the US by boat for launch whereas much of the current production is going to be allocated for Europe and Asia. That isn't to say US won't see additional units before next year but I do think we'll see more XB1s in the states.

 

[-tkf-]

Another point worth considering is how much faith Microsoft and Sony has in there respective consoles. If Sony thought they had something that would sell millions on launch, they might have ordered more from their suppliers early enough to be able to cope with the demand. Plus they may have an advantage with the parts they manufacture themselves.

 

[Bagel seed]

Why can't MS produce consoles as quickly as Sony??? Both platforms should be supply constrained for while.

The real question is how do they allocate their production for consumers in various territories. My guess is MS pays to have these flown to the US and we continue to see XB1s all thru the holiday in the US. Of course they will have supply in their other markets but not anything like what we see here. Sony OTOH probably shipped their PS4s the US by boat for launch whereas much of the current production is going to be allocated for Europe and Asia. That isn't to say US won't see additional units before next year but I do think we'll see more XB1s in the states.

I'm basing it mostly on the announcement of the first retail Xbox produced which was in mid Sep, and the reduced territories (no, I don't think it is simply a localization issue). Going by that I'm putting MS for 2-2.5 mil produced by the end of the year.

I don't see either air freighting units in this time, it seems overly expensive to do that as was discussed on this board a little while ago.

 

[imaxx]

Sony sold through >1 million units worldwide in 24 hours.
Microsoft sold through >1 million units worldwide in 24 hours.

Sure for Sony it was limited to NA, but since that is the only region they launched in that represents their current worldwide numbers.

...so if my kid starts selling stuff under our house, he's selling worldwide??

no matter the irrelevant correction below, this is quite a logical fallacy.

Unless you consider the NA 'worldwide', of course....

 

[temesgen]

I'm basing it mostly on the announcement of the first retail Xbox produced which was in mid Sep, and the reduced territories (no, I don't think it is simply a localization issue). Going by that I'm putting MS for 2-2.5 mil produced by the end of the year.

I don't see either air freighting units in this time, it seems overly expensive to do that as was discussed on this board a little while ago.

I've already said what I think MS is doing but I'll put it another way, where do you think the other 1.5M units they produced?

 

[Bagel seed]

I've already said what I think MS is doing but I'll put it another way, where do you think the other 1.5M units they produced?

1) 1M produced by mid to late Oct ->shipped
2) First shipment arrives for launch, and another 1-1.5 already produced and on the way either partially arrived for pre Black Friday, and for the holidays in multiple shipments in the next week or so

 

[dumbo11]

Another point worth considering is how much faith Microsoft and Sony has in there respective consoles. If Sony thought they had something that would sell millions on launch, they might have ordered more from their suppliers early enough to be able to cope with the demand. Plus they may have an advantage with the parts they manufacture themselves.

AFAIK the problem isn't components, but assembly.

Foxconn need trained workers to assemble the PS4, the training takes time, the worker can't 'ramp up' their production rate, and Foxconn may not be able to find more workers/a free production line at short notice.

That's where the alleged 'made in Japan' stickers become interesting. Foxconn are very unlikely to be assembling consoles in Japan.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Why can't MS produce consoles as quickly as Sony??? Both platforms should be supply constrained for while.

From all indications Sony started manufacturing much earlier than MS. So even if they manufacture the same number of consoles each month, Sony will still have more by the end of the year.

...so if my kid starts selling stuff under our house, he's selling worldwide??

no matter the irrelevant correction below, this is quite a logical fallacy.

Unless you consider the NA 'worldwide', of course....

Huh? I'd like to have what you are smoking.

If Company A sells 10 million products in 2 countries and Company B sells 10 million products in 10 countries.

How many products of Company A exist in the world? How many products of Company B exist in the world?

It doesn't matter if a company doesn't sell any product in certain countries.

If you are going to be that pedantic then neither Sony nor Microsoft will have worldwide sales figures, ever, as neither company will be selling consoles in all countries of the world.

Your logic seriously failed you my good sir.

Regards,
SB

 

[BoardBonobo]

Well Sony still have something like 7 manufacturing plants in Japan. If there is a sudden shortage of cameras, TV, phones, Vaios, or tablets then we know why!! They also got subsidiaries all around the world. They've got a lot of internal manufacturing capacity, just not on the same scale as Foxconn or Pegatron. They could have been producing tens of thousands of units a month internally.

 

[betan]

Nope, not being silly or sarcastic or trolling. I just don't see the common gamer wanting to go with the Xbox One. I'm also putting more weight on regions outside of Xbox 360's stronghold of the US. I think from a marketing perspective for common gamers that the PS4 has hit a grand-slam.

I truly think there will be a wide wide margin of at least in the range of 3:1 favoring the PS4.

Sony projects 5 million PS4 sales by April (1st). Xbox One sold 1 million in first day. Even if Xbox doesn't sell a single additional unit, you don't see the problem with 3-4 million PS4 sales in November alone?

 

[BRiT]

I thought the numbers so far were 1.7 million for XB1 and 2.8 million for PS4 and they hadn't even launched world-wide where they have a stronger base. Maybe those numbers were way off...

I'm prob being too negative and maybe being taken in by the internet forums banter and not giving the average consumer enough credit to not be swept up by that forum hype.

 

[BoardBonobo]

Sony projects 5 million PS4 sales by April (1st). Xbox One sold 1 million in first day. Even if Xbox doesn't sell a single additional unit, you don't see the problem with 3-4 million PS4 sales in November alone?

Unless, of course, the 5 million is for NA alone. After all the majority argued that the original 1 million pre-orders must be global figures when in fact that 1 million plus happened in the first 24 hours of the NA launch.

 

[betan]

I thought the numbers so far were 1.7 million for XB1 and 2.8 million for PS4 and they hadn't even launched world-wide where they have a stronger base. Maybe those numbers were way off...

Don't know anything about those numbers, but it's fairly certain 5.1 - 6.8 million PS4s in November is definitely not possible.

I'm prob being too negative and maybe being taken in by the internet forums banter and not giving the average consumer enough credit to not be swept up by that forum hype.

I think you are just confusing prerelease hype (or intent) with actually produced and sold units. There is production capability (of both manufacturers) and more than enough hardcore Xbox fans to consider plus in the near future average consumer may actually discover they like Xbox One voice commands (or even Kinect camera stuff) after trying it out.