PS4/XBOne launch sales numbers

[dagamer]

Even the Wii U sold 3.1 million units by the end of 2012. People thinking the PS4 will outsell the Xbox One by 2:1 or 3:1 are kidding themselves.

It's been said again and again that games sell consoles, not price, and definitely not specs, otherwise everyone and their mother would buy a PS4 now instead of the apathy we see online from people waiting. If you aren't going to wait for a price drop, why not buy on day one? Cost is still the same.

 

[djskribbles]

Games don't matter as much in the first few months of a console launch... pretty much whatever ships will be sold. Games (and price) matter more 3-5 months after. I think Sony could possibly jump out to an early 2:1 lead because it seems like they started production a bit earlier and have more units for sale. But like it has been said already, it doesn't matter right now. 4-6 months from now will paint a better picture when supply easily meets demand.

 

[Sonic]

My prediction is as follows.

PS4 -

NA: 1.8 - 2.4 million units.
Europe: 2 - 2.6 million units.
Japan: 700,000 to 1 million units.

Xbox One -

NA: 1.6 - 2.2 million units.
Europe: 1.6 - 2.2 million units.
Japan: 200,000 - 300,000 units.

This is through to April. Would put Sony between 4.5 and 6 million worldwide. Microsoft would be between 3.4 and 4.8 million units worldwide. Either which way I can see Sony having a 1 million unit advantage due to launching in more countries, having home field advantage in Japan, European interest, and a really nice North American launch.

It's not so easy to predict how the market will react. Wii sales took off like a rocket out of nowhere. MS was able to get the 360 a steady increase in sales and extended its life with Kinect. Sony was able to salvage a launch and negative press with its $600 price but to the detriment of vastly lost market share in Europe and NA. We could very well see a repeat of last gen where MS has a sizable lead over Sony (US, UK, etc.) or it's possible Sony goes back to wiping the floor with the competition and dominates the industry.

 

[eastmen]

I wouldn't read much into these numbers. The actual console manufacturing yields aren't much different right now between the consoles . We might not see a sizable difference until spring

 

[patsu]

The initial user base is very important. Whoever grab more will have more core gamers to sustain traditional games for the rest of the generation. Some may not get 2 consoles.

 

[AlphaWolf]

The initial user base is very important. Whoever grab more will have more core gamers to sustain traditional games for the rest of the generation. Some may not get 2 consoles.

Both look to already have more early than they did in the last gen.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Yeah... I also don't see why you suddenly forgot about the PS3 catching up to X360's initial user base.

 

[patsu]

Sony focused on first party exclusive contents that maximize PS3's advantage. They also have a wider worldwide distribution. Even then, it took them years to get back on their feet.

It doesn't mean the initial userbase is meaningless. Not everything can be boiled down to just sales numbers. The make up of the userbase is often more interesting and important info.

 

[messyman]

My prediction is as follows.

PS4 -

NA: 1.8 - 2.4 million units.
Europe: 2 - 2.6 million units.
Japan: 700,000 to 1 million units.

Xbox One -

NA: 1.6 - 2.2 million units.
Europe: 1.6 - 2.2 million units.
Japan: 200,000 - 300,000 units.

This is through to April. Would put Sony between 4.5 and 6 million worldwide. Microsoft would be between 3.4 and 4.8 million units worldwide. Either which way I can see Sony having a 1 million unit advantage due to launching in more countries, having home field advantage in Japan, European interest, and a really nice North American launch.

It's not so easy to predict how the market will react. Wii sales took off like a rocket out of nowhere. MS was able to get the 360 a steady increase in sales and extended its life with Kinect. Sony was able to salvage a launch and negative press with its $600 price but to the detriment of vastly lost market share in Europe and NA. We could very well see a repeat of last gen where MS has a sizable lead over Sony (US, UK, etc.) or it's possible Sony goes back to wiping the floor with the competition and dominates the industry.

I HIGHLY doubt that.
I see zero reason why the Xbox One would sell that much considering the current state of the 360 in Japan.

 

[eastmen]

The initial user base is very important. Whoever grab more will have more core gamers to sustain traditional games for the rest of the generation. Some may not get 2 consoles.

Why ?

If sony sells 3m ps4's by the end of 2013 and ms is at 2.5m do you think a game developer is going to say... hmmm these are the two closest consoles in history in terms of hardware even more so than the hd twins but that 500 thousand unit difference in 2013 during the first 2 months the products are out will stop us from developing this game that wont see the light of day before 2015 ?

 

[patsu]

If you merely look at sales numbers, you won't be able to understand your userbase.

It's the difference between sales vs marketing.

 

[Bagel seed]

Looks like MS sold 140k in UK for launch according to EG and old 360 sales data extrapolation. 2x 360, and shy of PS3 sales which was 165k.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2013-11-25-xbox-one-outsells-xbox-360-two-to-one-in-uk-launch

From perusing anecdotal info online, it seems Xbone isn't all that sold out yet. Sony will likely have 2:1 advantage by the end of the week and maintain a supply constrained status until at least Jan according to the state of current retailer preorder demand in Europe.

 

[Arwin]

The price difference is going to hit hard in the UK, imho. It was a big factor for the 360 making headway in the UK and now it will hold them back a bit.

 

[NRP]

I didn't preorder. What do think the chances are of scoring a Bone before the end of the year? All of the stores in my area are sold out (northern California).

 

[AlphaWolf]

I didn't preorder. What do think the chances are of scoring a Bone before the end of the year? All of the stores in my area are sold out (northern California).

You'll probably need to buy a bundle or pay ebay prices. Best Buy canada had a $700 bundle available today (2 games and live gold sub + play + charge).

 

[MrFox]

I thought the numbers so far were 1.7 million for XB1 and 2.8 million for PS4 and they hadn't even launched world-wide where they have a stronger base. Maybe those numbers were way off...

I'm prob being too negative and maybe being taken in by the internet forums banter and not giving the average consumer enough credit to not be swept up by that forum hype.

Aw come on. Do you really want to go there? Forum Hype and Marketing? Half a dozen people so far have asked me if my PS4 was broken like most other on the internets... the bullshit never stops. On both sides. You can remove your colored glasses.

"I can't wait for the truth to come out!" was a classic victim-style marketing. The same thing you keep repeating. Of course, it's the evil PS4 fanboys of the internet who swayed the userbase with their lies! If you estimated wrong it's because the average consumer is more intelligent than you thought, because the correct choice is obviously the XB1.

But about forum hype, it goes both ways...

DDR3 has lower latency than GDDR5 -> Nope
PS4 cost will be very high because of GDDR5 -> Nope
Ok, then PS4 will be sold at a severe loss -> Nope
PS4 has 4 CU that are crippled ,14+4 -> Nope
XB1 hidden performance with eSRAM, Move Engines, etc... -> Nope
PS4 will have no choice but to add DRM like MS -> Nope
Without online DRM the PS4 will lose third parties to MS -> Nope
XB1 will have 8 mem chips instead of 16, so lower cost -> Nope
PS4 has low supplies at launch because 4Gbits are unobtonium -> Nope
PS4 will have an even bigger case than XB1 -> Nope
Oh, smaller case? The PS4 will be very loud, XB1 will be convection cooled -> Nope
XB1 has a 3:1 launch volume advantage, from a reliable source -> Nope
Huge XB1 overclock possible because the case is bigger -> Nope
XB1 will have a much lower power consumption -> Nope
Magical Audio DSP will save the day -> Nope (but it's a pretty cool audio block, I admit)

This was all either FUD or wishful speculation that gained traction everywhere including B3D, and it didn't change anything. Forum posters aren't gods of public opinions. There's been plenty of this on both sides, it's been like that for years, last gen was the same. It will have an impact when it's really big... you know... like online DRM. Otherwise most people know it's just noise. It's one of the reason it took MS too much time to react to the antiDRM movement, they didn't think it was real (otherwise they would have reacted before E3, not days after), maybe it looked like all the other noise.

 

[dobwal]

Aw come on. Do you really want to go there? Forum Hype and Marketing? Half a dozen people so far have asked me if my PS4 was broken like most other on the internets... the bullshit never stops. On both sides. You can remove your colored glasses.

"I can't wait for the truth to come out!" was a classic victim-style marketing. The same thing you keep repeating. Of course, it's the evil PS4 fanboys of the internet who swayed the userbase with their lies! If you estimated wrong it's because the average consumer is more intelligent than you thought, because the correct choice is obviously the XB1.

But about forum hype, it goes both ways...

DDR3 has lower latency than GDDR5 -> Nope
PS4 cost will be very high because of GDDR5 -> Nope
Ok, then PS4 will be sold at a severe loss -> Nope
PS4 has 4 CU that are crippled ,14+4 -> Nope
XB1 hidden performance with eSRAM, Move Engines, etc... -> Nope
PS4 will have no choice but to add DRM like MS -> Nope
Without online DRM the PS4 will lose third parties to MS -> Nope
XB1 will have 8 mem chips instead of 16, so lower cost -> Nope
PS4 has low supplies at launch because 4Gbits are unobtonium -> Nope
PS4 will have an even bigger case than XB1 -> Nope
Oh, smaller case? The PS4 will be very loud, XB1 will be convection cooled -> Nope
XB1 has a 3:1 launch volume advantage, from a reliable source -> Nope
Huge XB1 overclock possible because the case is bigger -> Nope
XB1 will have a much lower power consumption -> Nope
Magical Audio DSP will save the day -> Nope (but it's a pretty cool audio block, I admit)

This was all either FUD or wishful speculation that gained traction everywhere including B3D, and it didn't change anything. Forum posters aren't gods of public opinions. There's been plenty of this on both sides, it's been like that for years, last gen was the same. It will have an impact when it's really big... you know... like online DRM. Otherwise most people know it's just noise. It's one of the reason it took MS too much time to react to the antiDRM movement, they didn't think it was real (otherwise they would have reacted before E3, not days after), maybe it looked like all the other noise.

Agreed. You think the dawn of a new generation would be a time of excitement. Giddy of what's to come. But with each new generation, it's getting more vicious and vitriol rules the discussion.

We spend less time discussing new possibilities and more time tearing the hardware down.

 

[Strange]

My prediction is as follows.

PS4 -

NA: 1.8 - 2.4 million units.
Europe: 2 - 2.6 million units.
Japan: 700,000 to 1 million units.

Xbox One -

NA: 1.6 - 2.2 million units.
Europe: 1.6 - 2.2 million units.
Japan: 200,000 - 300,000 units.

This is through to April. Would put Sony between 4.5 and 6 million worldwide. Microsoft would be between 3.4 and 4.8 million units worldwide. Either which way I can see Sony having a 1 million unit advantage due to launching in more countries, having home field advantage in Japan, European interest, and a really nice North American launch.

It's not so easy to predict how the market will react. Wii sales took off like a rocket out of nowhere. MS was able to get the 360 a steady increase in sales and extended its life with Kinect. Sony was able to salvage a launch and negative press with its $600 price but to the detriment of vastly lost market share in Europe and NA. We could very well see a repeat of last gen where MS has a sizable lead over Sony (US, UK, etc.) or it's possible Sony goes back to wiping the floor with the competition and dominates the industry.

Your prediction isn't going to happen purely on the basis that Xbox One will probably launch in Japan/Asia in late 2014.

My prediction in mid 2014

PS4 -

NA: 3 million units.
Europe: 3 million units.
Japan/Asia: 1.5 million units.

Xbox One -

NA: 2 million units.
Europe: 1.5 million units.
Japan/Asia: 0 units.

Yes I'm putting PS4 at a 7.5 to 3.5 advantage. (quite close to 2:1 is what I'm aiming for)

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Some of those sales expectations are downright ridiculous IMHO. Demand isn't that unbalanced and both consoles should not be so supply limited either.

 

[Arwin]

I agree, but hey, we're not working for Wedbush.

Personally, I'm sticking to close to 1:1 in the US, with probably an advantage to Microsoft during Christmas, and 1:2 for Sony in EU. Something like 5 million for PS4 end of Q1 2014, and 4,5 million for Xbox One. Japan will remain largely irrelevant during this time.