Xbox360 sales

[mrcorbo]

Price is a factor. I would argue that in this gen it has been the dominant factor so far. It is IMHO stagnating both the PS3's and 360's sales and stimulating the Wii's. I'm not narrow-minded enough to say it is the only factor, but it's a major one.

While game releases can precipitate a short term bump, I don't see a real sustainable rise in rate of sales to occur until the system sees a price cut.

I will, though, (as I will every time an XBOX vs. 360 comparison is made) point to the software unit sales and the fact that in 2006 the 360 sold 23.2M units of software. For comparison, in 2002 the XBOX (with only a slightly lower install base) sold 16.5m units. This all exclusively in the U.S. To me, this points to a much stronger platform at this point in it's life.

 

[Acert93]

The argument is that even with the advantage of a Worldwide launch, an established fanbase, and a total lack of competition in the next-gen sector, Xbox360 has only managed to slightly outdo the Xbox in sales.

There is more than one way to skin a cat. I think the very figures you are citing actually demonstrate significantly STRONGER sales. Btw, here is the site the graph came from with detailed numbers: http://www.vgcharts.org/aconscomps.php?name1=X360&name2=XB&type=2&align=0

Point #1: 15 months in, the Xbox 360 has much stronger legs than the Xbox1.

A perfect example to demonstrate this point is 2nd January sales.

Console / Date / Price : Sales
360 / Jan 2007 / $299-$399: 332,250
Xbox / Jan 2003 / $199: 178,000

Difference: 154,250 units (87% increase)

So while the Xbox1 had a $100-$200 price advantage it's second January sales are SIGNIFICANTLY less than the Xbox 360s. The 360 obvious is a stronger brand at this point and it is demonstrating this through sales.

Point #2: Cumulative Xbox/360 Sales Can Be Misleading.

Especially when gauging which was selling better. e.g. the 360 clearly was in a hole compared to the Xbox1 in launch totals for a number of reasons. By the end of January 2006 the 360 had sold 929,750 units compared to the Xbox1's 1,789,000 units by January 2002. Yet it is well known the 360's sales were hampered by supply issues.

Taking the Launch-to-Present approach it is true the 360 has only marginally outsold (~200K units) the Xbox1.

But there is more to this picture. Accounting for the launch supply issues, lets look at the 12 months sales from January 2006/2002.

Xbox 360 / Feb 2006-Jan 2007: 4,505,500
Xbox / Feb 2002-Jan 2003: 3,486,750

In the same 12 months period the Xbox 360 has outsold the Xbox1 by 1,018,750 units. That is a 29% increase in sales in the similar 12 month period.

Looking at raw sales data alone we can see that

1. The Xbox 360 had 87% stronger sales in its 2nd January.

2. Comparing the last 12 months of the 360 to the same relative period in the Xbox1's history the Xbox 360 has outperformed by 1M units (29% more sales) in the similar 12 month period.

Now factor in the lack of a price drop AND a more expensive console and it is elementary: The Xbox 360 has a much larger demand than the Xbox1 at comparable points in their lifecycle and in the last 12 months has singificantly outperformed the Xbox1 at the same relative timeframe.

 

[Acert93]

What was interesting to me is the first non-launch Dec for the Xbox (1.03m) and 360 (1.1m) (numbers from ranger's link). I'm not sure what it means, but neither was supply limited at the time.

It is interesting, but part of that is chalked up to differences and various pressures. The 360 saw quite a few titles slide into 2007 and only had 2 titles rated 9 or higher at IGN whereas the Xbox1 had 6 titles rated 9 or higher in its 2nd holiday period at IGN. Another big factor is the Xbox1 didn't contend with any console launched in its 2nd holiday and was riding a price cut whereas the Xbox 360 had no price cut and had to compete with the hype of not one but two new consoles launching.

Looking at it that way, seeing the $299/$399 360 outperform a $199 Xbox (even if by a little more than .5M units in the US) is actually indicative of the strength of the 360's sales. And whereas the Xbox1 fizzled out some going into the new year the 360 has stayed strong and continues to widen the gap.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

One thing that I feel has atleast some importance, is the fact that Xbox 1 had Halo from day one. X360s' Halo is yet to come.

 

[-tkf-]

Part of the reason why the sales aren't outpacing Xbox is because the Xbox launched at $299. 6 months later, it was at $199. 360 launched at $399 and has stayed at $399 since then.

The fact that the 360 is keeping pace with the Xbox in sales, or slightly ahead, with the higher price is a testament to the strength of the Xbox brand today in comparison to where it was in 2001.

There's nothing to see here. Move along.

That would be one way to see it, the other way could be that with Zero next gen competitors for most of it´s lifetime and already a known brand they should have done better.

 

[Jesus2006]

very discouraging. they had almost a year head start and only achieved that figure. they still have Halo 3 and Grand Theft Auto 4 to boost their sales though

But it won't go on as easy as (until) now because now we have strong competitors Wii and PS3, especially after the EU PS3 release i expect a big change in this area.

Xbox 360 had nothing to directly compete with for whole year so the decision basically was PS2 or 360 and those who wanted next gen, had no other choice but to take the 360.

Now this is completely different.

 

[rounin]

There is more than one way to skin a cat...+Analysis

I agree, and very interesting use of color and bolding by the way. To begin this post, I would like to say that I have no experience in economics or accounting whatsoever. However, as a current engineering student, I'm required to have at least some insight on detecting probable factors and possible effects.

Your first point is rather true, but one has to question whether it is the Xbox360 itself that is generating the sales. For sure, the launch of titles such as Gears of War must have caused a huge demand for the console and it definitely lent a helping hand in selling Xbox360s for the holidays. How much sales is attributed to people going into stores trying to find a PS3 or a Wii, not finding any and running into a mountain of Xbox360s with promotions? On the other hand, the Xbox walked right into a holiday that had an abundance of what was for the past year a hot commodity, and still came out with huge numbers.

Also how much of the sales can we attribute to the single-game phenomenon? I think it would be unfair if we do not access what releases the Xbox had at that comparable point in time. What would happen if we were to truncate comparisons by doing a comparison against Halo 2's versus Gears of War's release and compare sales in the first 2 months after release?

I think such is the problem with truncating away data such as you have done in your point 2 and others have done in mentioning the cutting away of a few months of data. In one aspect, yes you do take care of the issue of weighing data against the supply issues. But on the other hand, it doesn't account for a few factors:

1.) How many people are willing to upgrade in the first year of console release are willing to to do so (in cutting the first 4 months, you may have well done this). In other words, it doesn't account for the fact that those who are early adopters the first time around are likely to be early the second time and might have purchased the console shortly after the supply issues have been fixed (in the case of the Xbox360).

2.)By doing this, you effectively trim away 2 million customers from the US user base alone, a move which would take the Xbox360 5-6 months to obtain if looking at overall average sales if we trim the first 3 months of Xbox360 sales. Comparatively, you are only trimming around 1.1million from the Xbox360 numbers by tossing the first four months on a worldwide basis. Without a better understanding of market trends, this seems like an overly bold move to do.

3.In terms of price, the Xbox was at $299 until May afterwards which it was sold at $199 for the remainder of the dataset. Taking inflation into account, it would be $340 and $225 respectively. The difference does not seem to be too big compared to the Xbox360's core. In other words, it started as equal or more expensive than the Core and ended up cheaper. Interestingly, the Xbox sold over 2 million before its first price cut in America alone while at the same time facing the competition from the Playstation 2 and Gamecube. The implications extend towards the notions of how important the extra year with no competition is and how important price point is.

I think in the end, the cumulative numbers are more indicative of acceptance. By all accounts, the only disadvantage that the Xbox360 has was that its worldwide launch caused an overall shortage of the machine in all areas. However, at that time, is it not reasonable to assume that those who couldn't get their hands on them for the first 4-5 months of supply constraint all got them when the supply issue was fixed for within the rest of the 14month period?

Certainly, the Xbox360 is selling better, but by looking at the overall global sales, it hasn't done that much better than the Xbox in the same relative (I think if you want to speak of relative, you need to take a look at the launches as they happen relative to each other, for instance, by comparing US launch with US launch and Euro launch with Euro launch) time period.

There is probably a happy medium between the approach you to skinning the cat and the way I'm doing, but at this time, I really need to sleep after 2 allnighters. I'm sorry if theres any horrible grammar or logic mistakes

Interestingly this is the longest post I've ever written. Perhaps its a result of being braindead that I lose my conciseness

 

[Laa-Yosh]

I wonder what your agenda is to push this useless topic...

 

[pipo]

But it won't go on as easy as (until) now because now we have strong competitors Wii and PS3, especially after the EU PS3 release i expect a big change in this area.

Coming from Europe, I have serious doubts.

Xbox 360 had nothing to directly compete with for whole year so the decision basically was PS2 or 360 and those who wanted next gen, had no other choice but to take the 360.

Or to wait for the PS3 who is supposed to blow the 360 out of the water...

You can spin this anyway you like. We'll see what happens later this year.

 

[Dave Baumann]

Certainly, the Xbox360 is selling better, but by looking at the overall global sales, it hasn't done that much better than the Xbox in the same relative (I think if you want to speak of relative, you need to take a look at the launches as they happen relative to each other, for instance, by comparing US launch with US launch and Euro launch with Euro launch) time period

Sorry, I must have missed it - where have we looked at global sales?

 

[swanlee]

Why are people comparing Xbox1 sales to the 360? This is a different market under different circumstances. The 360 has 10 million + consoles sold, is still out-pacing the PS3 even directly after the PS3 launch and while the WII is selling like hotcakes is not really in direct competition with it.

This gen the 360 holds the cards, Devs are using it as the base platform and Xbox Live is a huge multi media success with pay per view movie and TV show content generating a lot of sales and game attach rates are through the roof for the 360. Basic hardware sales don't tell the whole story of the 360's current success.

 

[-tkf-]

Basic hardware sales don't tell the whole story of the 360's current success.

Well one of the points (i guess?) from the post was to show that the 360 is not as succesfull as we might have thought. I´m actually kind a waiting for someone to popup and show us that numbers and graphs are wrong because i thought that the 360 WAS performing better than the XBOX did. Everything tells me it should, no real competition, widely known brand, attractive pricing and the former XBOX was killed very fast.

 

[assen]

Well one of the points (i guess?) from the post was to show that the 360 is not as succesfull as we might have thought. I´m actually kind a waiting for someone to popup and show us that numbers and graphs are wrong because i thought that the 360 WAS performing better than the XBOX did. Everything tells me it should, no real competition, widely known brand, attractive pricing and the former XBOX was killed very fast.

For one thing, software is selling significantly better than on the original Xbox, and that's what gets developers' attention - and that's what matters in the end.

 

[swanlee]

"360 is not as successful as we might have thought."

But what criteria are they using? Hardware sales alone tell nothing, it's currently number 1 this gen, it currently has a much higher game attach rate than previous consoles, it currently has a lot of sales from down loadable movies, TV shows, game content which did not exist last gen.

You just can't compare direct hardware numbers from one gen to another and be able to come up with any conclusions, the 360 is the current lead platform for next gen games.

 

[rounin]

I wonder what your agenda is to push this useless topic...

This came up rather quick The idea was that the Xbox360 has not been selling as well as we thought it was or people have been giving the idea that it was in terms of market penetration. Another reason this thread was created is that there is a PS3 sales thread but there is none for Xbox360 sales. Should we question the agenda of the person who created that (useless) thread as well?

Sorry, I must have missed it - where have we looked at global sales?

We looked at it when we compared the European and Japanese numbers as well. The former didn't offer much difference and the latter is no doubt selling worse. Then we compared the North American numbers.

swanlee highlighted an important point about software attachment that was not mentioned before. The X360's attachment rate has definitely been very high the last time I checked.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

I agree that this argument (the same sales as Xbox 1) has some legs with it until X360 manages to clearly outpace it's predecessor, until that happens this argument will live on. However I think that article and you rounin put too much weight on wrong things and too little on others. The price is a big deal and in such a small timeframe the small inflation is not as important as key price points which have stayed the same. Core holds no weight in this topic as sales have indicated that it's not desired option at the moment, thus X360 has sold as well as Xbox1 with much higher pricetag without Halo on day 1.

While it's a valid concern that maybe the higher sales in months after the launch show bent up demand from launch shortages, I personally feel that's not the case, or at best it explains minor amount of sales, it might show in January and maybe in February, but that's it, in march and onwards the christmas buying spree is definately over...

This gen MS will have much more big hitters than before, last fall it was Gears, this year Halo 3 and next year probably Gears 2, with strong first party support and the early lead. I would be very surprised if X360 doesnt' sell considerably more than Xbox 1 did.

 

[swanlee]

Also a thing to consider since the new consoles are a jump in price from last gen what if the total numbers of hardware sales this gen ends up being lower? What if the higher handheld sales around the world are cutting into the console sales?

There may not be a PS2 for this gen and market share rates may be more even than last gen. This still will not negate the 360 increasing and taking the lead in market share even if over all sales do not excede the original Xbox, which the 360 looks to be very capable of beating in the long run.

MS would still be happy to meet or slighlty beat the Xbox 1 sales and end up being the market leader.

 

[scooby_dooby]

We looked at it when we compared the European and Japanese numbers as well. The former didn't offer much difference and the latter is no doubt selling worse. Then we compared the North American numbers.

Lol, I can't believe you're still pushing this ridiculous analysis. Think of it this way, by all indications, at the end of next year, 360 will be sitting at 19million+.

That's 90% of the total XBox1 install base, in the span of just 2 years.

 

[dobwal]

01	XB	1-Nov	0,848,500	0,848,500
02	XB	1-Dec	0,800,000	1,648,500
03	XB	2-Jan	0,140,500	1,789,000
04	XB	2-Feb	0,160,500	1,949,500
05	XB	2-Mar	0,145,250	2,094,750
06	XB	2-Apr	0,089,750	2,184,500
07	XB	2-May	0,253,250	2,437,750
08	XB	2-Jun	0,309,500	2,747,250
09	XB	2-Jul	0,170,500	2,917,750
10	XB	2-Aug	0,163,000	3,080,750
11	XB	2-Sep	0,198,750	3,279,500
12	XB	2-Oct	0,247,250	3,526,750
13	XB	2-Nov	0,500,750	4,027,500
14	XB	2-Dec	1,070,250	5,097,750
15	XB	3-Jan	0,178,000	5,275,750

01	PS2	Oct-00	0,453,500	0,453,500
02	PS2	Nov-00	0,214,000	0,667,500
03	PS2	Dec-00	0,642,250	1,309,750
04	PS2	1-Jan	0,274,250	1,584,000
05	PS2	1-Feb	0,262,000	1,846,000
06	PS2	1-Mar	0,604,500	2,450,500
07	PS2	1-Apr	0,372,000	2,822,500
08	PS2	1-May	0,306,750	3,129,250
09	PS2	1-Jun	0,374,000	3,503,250
10	PS2	1-Jul	0,407,750	3,911,000
11	PS2	1-Aug	0,367,250	4,278,250
12	PS2	1-Sep	0,365,250	4,643,500
13	PS2	1-Oct	0,358,000	5,001,500
14	PS2	1-Nov	1,005,250	6,006,750
15	PS2	1-Dec	2,121,750	8,128,500

01	GC	1-Nov	0,728,750	0,728,750
02	GC	1-Dec	0,571,500	1,300,250
03	GC	2-Jan	0,062,000	1,362,250
04	GC	2-Feb	0,085,250	1,447,500
05	GC	2-Mar	0,114,750	1,562,250
06	GC	2-Apr	0,090,000	1,652,250
07	GC	2-May	0,119,250	1,771,500
08	GC	2-Jun	0,211,750	1,983,250
09	GC	2-Jul	0,141,000	2,124,250
10	GC	2-Aug	0,132,500	2,256,750
11	GC	2-Sep	0,189,000	2,445,750
12	GC	2-Oct	0,188,750	2,634,500
13	GC	2-Nov	0,477,500	3,112,000
14	GC	2-Dec	0,674,500	3,786,500
15	GC	3-Jan	0,092,250	3,878,750

01	PS	Sep-95	0,151,750	0,151,750
02	PS	Oct-95	0,077,250	0,229,000
03	PS	Nov-95	0,111,500	0,340,500
04	PS	Dec-95	0,345,000	0,685,500
05	PS	Jan-96	0,077,750	0,763,250
06	PS	Feb-96	0,052,250	0,815,500
07	PS	Mar-96	0,064,750	0,880,250
08	PS	Apr-96	0,049,000	0,929,250
09	PS	May-96	0,083,250	1,012,500
10	PS	Jun-96	0,189,250	1,201,750
11	PS	Jul-96	0,115,000	1,316,750
12	PS	Aug-96	0,104,750	1,421,500
13	PS	Sep-96	0,185,500	1,607,000
14	PS	Oct-96	0,169,750	1,776,750
15	PS	Nov-96	0,430,750	2,207,500

01	N64	Sep-96	0,339,000	0,339,000
02	N64	Oct-96	0,364,000	0,703,000
03	N64	Nov-96	0,591,250	1,294,250
04	N64	Dec-96	0,836,500	2,130,750
05	N64	Jan-97	0,167,750	2,298,500
06	N64	Feb-97	0,179,000	2,477,500
07	N64	Mar-97	0,318,750	2,796,250
08	N64	Apr-97	0,243,750	3,040,000
09	N64	May-97	0,175,250	3,215,250
10	N64	Jun-97	0,281,250	3,496,500
11	N64	Jul-97	0,204,250	3,700,750
12	N64	Aug-97	0,183,250	3,884,000
13	N64	Sep-97	0,270,000	4,154,000
14	N64	Oct-97	0,267,250	4,421,250
15	N64	Nov-97	0,905,000	5,326,250

01	DC	Sep-99	0,656,500	0,656,500
02	DC	Oct-99	0,200,000	0,856,500
03	DC	Nov-99	0,282,000	1,138,500
04	DC	Dec-99	0,562,500	1,701,000
05	DC	Jan-00	0,068,000	1,769,000
06	DC	Feb-00	0,092,000	1,861,000
07	DC	Mar-00	0,068,500	1,929,500
08	DC	Apr-00	0,049,500	1,979,000
09	DC	May-00	0,038,500	2,017,500
10	DC	Jun-00	0,053,000	2,070,500
11	DC	Jul-00	0,040,000	2,110,500
12	DC	Aug-00	0,058,000	2,168,500
13	DC	Sep-00	0,149,000	2,317,500
14	DC	Oct-00	0,119,500	2,437,000
15	DC	Nov-00	0,219,000	2,656,000

01	X360	5-Nov	0,357,250	0,357,250
02	X360	5-Dec	0,303,500	0,660,750
03	X360	6-Jan	0,269,000	0,929,750
04	X360	6-Feb	0,187,250	1,117,000
05	X360	6-Mar	0,213,750	1,330,750
06	X360	6-Apr	0,318,500	1,649,250
07	X360	6-May	0,261,500	1,910,750
08	X360	6-Jun	0,294,250	2,205,000
09	X360	6-Jul	0,223,000	2,428,000
10	X360	6-Aug	0,217,000	2,645,000
11	X360	6-Sep	0,311,750	2,956,750
12	X360	6-Oct	0,238,750	3,195,500
13	X360	6-Nov	0,587,250	3,782,750
14	X360	6-Dec	1,320,250	5,103,000
15	X360	7-Jan	0,332,250	5,435,250

01	Wii	6-Nov	0,538,500	0,538,500
02	Wii	6-Dec	0,704,750	1,243,250
03	Wii	7-Jan	0,485,000	1,728,250

01	PS3	6-Nov	0,222,250	0,222,250
02	PS3	6-Dec	0,537,750	0,760,000
03	PS3	7-Jan	0,275,500	1,035,500

Looking straight at early hardware sales tells you very little about the prospects of a console.

Saying "the 360 is barely outselling the xbox 1" looks negative within the context that the xbox was nowhere near the marketleader of its generation. But looking at sales for the last 9 consoles, the xbox first 15 month US sales are only outpaced by the PS2. The Xbox only trails the N64 in terms of the fastest to 2 million consoles sold in the US (the xbox went on to cut prices the next month, go figure) but neither ended up as market leaders.

Furthermore, the Xbox moved more units in its first 3 months then any of the current consoles (360, PS3 and Wii) in their first trimester. The numbers by themselves gives a positive tilt to the xbox. However, when looking at the historical sales data and the issue of supply constraint it shows the numbers by themselves show very little. Even more, it goes to show regardless of how impressive the Wii sales have been, those numbers alone do very little to help predict the winner of the current generation.

Its hard to use the first 15 month of sales as a reliable measuring tool when the last 2 market leaders (PS1, PS2) both with 100million in sales sit on the opposite ends of the scale.

 

[Acert93]

Thanks dowbal, that was going to be my next point along with software attach rate.

@ rounin: You mention inflation yet have overlooked the importance of pricepoint in the consumer conscious. A dollar is a dollar and it takes a very, very long time for certain items to find value above the dollar amount.

There is no doubt that $199 remains an important price point in the mind of consumers for console purchases. The market has a very, very long history of a $199 price point:



And looking at past generation sales the PS2 sales accellerated significantly at $199. So it is easy to dismiss price points on the basis of inflation, but inflation doesn't necessarily have a direct effect on consumers perceived price point values -- remember, inflation is an index of the increases average cost of goods which can also tighten a consumers wallet as income doesn't always inflate with inflation.

And looking at the launch inflation points in these charts, it would seem the difference between the Xbox1 and Xbox 360 launches is ~13%. That doesn't seem like a significant amount to offset 20 years of obsession with the $199 pricepoint -- and the expectation of getting MORE at that price than before.



And while the influence of Gears of War is notable, the lack of a Halo title is equally notable. And as mentioned above the 2nd holiday for the Xbox1 saw more "9+" titles including some large franchises in their own rights: Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell, Unreal Championship, MechAssault, Tony Hawk's Pro Skater, Metal Gear Solid 2, TimeSplitters 2 and a little thing called Xbox Live (with the January assist from DoA Volleyball and Panzer Dragon).

Looking at dowbal's charts we can see that the Xbox1, relative to other consoles, did very well in its first 15 months and the pricepoint ($199), services (Live), and software (notably Spinter Cell and Halo) gave it a strong first year.

Yet the 360 has surpassed the Xbox1, and looking at the last 12 months the 360 has gained a lot more momentum than the Xbox1 (as pointed out in my previous post, with a 29% increase in US sales in that 12 month period and 87% increase in January sales).

So while it is true that launch-to-date relative sales are not too different, when you begin looking at the impact of a worldwide launch + shortages, accounting for this impact, and then looking at the non-supply limited period the 360 is indeed doing much better and more relevant to sales strength is that it appears to be selling stronger--which is impressive at its price point and lack of a "Halo" title.

People can dice these numbers up a number of ways, but the question is what do the numbers tell us?

IMO the numbers alone are useless unless we approach them with a question. I can think of a couple questions that seem to be floating in this thread:

1. Has the Xbox 360, in absolute terms, outsold the Xbox1? Yes, marginally.

2. Does the marginal increase in sales indicate poor sales for the Xbox 360? No because...

a. The Xbox1 sold well in its first 15 months.
b. Due to launch supply issues 360 sales were initially limited, but the last 12 months demonstrate the Xbox 360 has shown significantly stronger demand.
c. Initial 2007 sales indicate the 360 has continued a much stronger sales pace than the Xbox1
d. The 360 is more expensive and will see a price drop in 2007 (a year or longer than the Xbox1 relative price drop) as well as its first Halo title.

3. Does the marginal increase in sales indicate the Xbox 360 is doomed to selling ~24M units in its first 5 years like the Xbox1? No one can see the future, but the market trends, publisher support, market conditions and competition, and key software titles give a very strong indication that the Xbox 360 will significantly outsell the Xbox1 in their first 5 years regardless of similar first 15 month sales.

In the end it really depends what data points you are looking at to get what questions you want answered. Jumping from similar sales numbers to a conclusion about general sales (and ignoring WW launches, supply issues and consumer response AFTER supply issues were resolved, and relative market forces like other console launches, and so forth) is a little narrow for my tastes.

It is absolutely true that US 360 sales are marginally better than Xbox1 sales, but the question is what does that tell us about the future? You seem to argue that it means it is NOT selling better. I would argue looking closer at the data we see that the 360 is indeed selling much better.