Merrill Lynch's Next-Gen console prediction

[Hardknock]

I'm really just dumb-founded by this new revelation... The PStwo sells over 10+ million a year. That means if what iham says is true, Sony is making over $1 BILLION in profit on hardware alone. Not even including licensing and software sales.

For some reason I don't find that likely, just call it a hunch

 

[Panajev2001a]

Why would their success rate not change? With a huge competitor like the XBOX it would be a miracle if Sony has the same level of success that they had with PSOne.

The best Sony can hope for IMO is to retain a 10-20% lead in overall consoles sold, and even those are lofty goals IMO.

I do not claim I can predict the future, but saying that a 10% lead is a LOFTY goal, the best Sony can ever wish for and something that is quite more of a dream than reality as you seem to be saying... well, you are selling the bear's skin before having killed the bear .

Let's see if they can play in the Western areas a good catchup game against the Xbox 360 that is shipping earlier and they can keep their presence n the Japanese market by taking over quickly once they launch.

It is not going to be easy, but I see this as an incentive for all the players to appease their consumer base even more .

Let's enjoy all the next-generation consoles, while waiting for the next-next-generation ones to arrive .

 

[BTOA]

I'm really just dumb-founded by this new revelation... The PStwo sells over 10+ million a year. That means if what iham says is true, Sony is making over $1 BILLION in profit on hardware alone. Not even including licensing and software sales.

For some reason I don't find that likely, just call it a hunch

If you take out all the cost from the PSTwo then $1 Billion is possible.

 

[scooby_dooby]

I do not claim I can predict the future, but saying that a 10% lead is a LOFTY goal, the best Sony can ever wish for and something that is quite more of a dream than reality as you seem to be saying... well, you are selling the bear's skin before having killed the bear .

Let's see if they can play in the Western areas a good catchup game against the Xbox 360 that is shipping earlier and they can keep their presence n the Japanese market by taking over quickly once they launch.

It is not going to be easy, but I see this as an incentive for all the players to appease their consumer base even more .

Let's enjoy all the next-generation consoles, while waiting for the next-next-generation ones to arrive .

Well we're all entitled to our opinion. I see MS taking a substantial lead in the USA and Canada this round, an early 10-15million console lead that Sony will never be able to catch up.

Sony will win Japan easily since they will get much more japanese style games.

Europe is the big question, Sony will have to beat MS soundly to retain their global lead in consoles sold, and I don't know how likely that is, more likely that they do do better in europe but not by a huge margin.

I think we'll end up roughly half and half at the end of this gen taking the 3 regions into account, if sony were to maintain a 10-20% lead that would be a success for them IMO.

 

[blakjedi]

If you take out all the cost from the PSTwo then $1 Billion is possible.

no. How do you ignore the cost of manufacture, assembly, distribution, shipping, warehousing, marketing warehousing....

Unless you are talking about $1 billion in profits over the life of ps2/pstwo then ok.

 

[mckmas8808]

no. How do you ignore the cost of manufacture, assembly, distribution, shipping, warehousing, marketing warehousing....

Unless you are talking about $1 billion in profits over the life of ps2/pstwo then ok.

Well I think he meant if you take out the cost to make, store, and advertise the PStwo then you will get $1 billion dollars.

 

[Phil]

Well we're all entitled to our opinion. I see MS taking a substantial lead in the USA and Canada this round, an early 10-15million console lead that Sony will never be able to catch up.

Sony will win Japan easily since they will get much more japanese style games.

Europe is the big question, Sony will have to beat MS soundly to retain their global lead in consoles sold, and I don't know how likely that is, more likely that they do do better in europe but not by a huge margin.

I think we'll end up roughly half and half at the end of this gen taking the 3 regions into account, if sony were to maintain a 10-20% lead that would be a success for them IMO.

Hold on for a second, after Sony has more or less outsold the Xbox by 4 to 1 this generation, you really believe Sony should be lucky to attain a 10-20% lead after next generation? Yeah, right. I see all the Sony happy owners outthere jumping onto Xbox360 based on.... err..... yeah, franchises that were already around on Xbox yet didn't interest any beyond the Xbox userbase at the time. I can also see them magically ignoring all the PlayStation known franchises as well...

It's all 2000 again. We shall see.

 

[mckmas8808]

Hold on for a second, after Sony has more or less outsold the Xbox by 4 to 1 this generation, you really believe Sony should be lucky to attain a 10-20% lead after next generation? Yeah, right. I see all the Sony happy owners outthere jumping onto Xbox360 based on.... err..... yeah, franchises that were already around on Xbox yet didn't interest any beyond the Xbox userbase at the time. I can also see them magically ignoring all the PlayStation known franchises as well...

It's all 2000 again. We shall see.

Yeah I know right. All of a sudden Sony has lost everything that made them good. Why is it that MS doesn't have to prove anything, yet when Sony has already proved itself for 10 years people still don't have no respect? Sony has more PS2 in each territory then MS has in the world. They have done that with the PSone and PS2, yet people think all of those 190 million (closing in on 200 million) Playstation owners just won't care about their well known franschises.

And Sony still tell this day doesn't get the respect that they deserve. The PSone had many great franchises like MGS, Gran Turismo, Tekken, main FFs series and the like yet people don't realize that they hit the world with more franchises with the PS2. The PS2 created new franchises like Socom, Rachet and Clank, Sly Cooper, Jak and Daxter, Devil May Cry, God of War, SOTC, Singstar games, The Getaway, Killzone, and the like.

Yet for some reason some people think that just because the 360 is coming out first MS will now have just as many great franchises and that the 360 will close the gap tremendosly. Should I remind you guys that most of those franchises that I named above are games made or published by Sony themselves. Why will Sony all of a sudden forget how to make hits? I think game devs like Ninja Theory is what Sony will continue to have to make BIG hits like hopefully Heavenly Sword will be. Hopefully in 2010 we will have Heavenly Sword 3: The Revenge of the Ninjas or something like that.

So to scooby_dooby why are you giving MS this free road?

Disclaimer: I am not attacking scooby_dooby about his opinion, just on how he came up with that opinion. You shouldn't skin the bear before it's dead. Again this is not an attack.

 

[Hardknock]

EVERY new generation people start over at Square ONE. You don't automatically obtain the same userbase. Sure there are the diehards that you see on the internet, but the majority of people just go where the games are. It's that simple. By the time Xbox came out, PS2 had sold 20 million units. That is quite a bit of momentum. This time PS3 won't have that advantage and may be more expensive aswell. This will not be as cut and dry as a lot of people want to think.

 

[mckmas8808]

EVERY new generation people start over at Square ONE. You don't automatically obtain the same userbase. Sure there are the diehards that you see on the internet, but the majority of people just go where the games are. It's that simple. By the time Xbox came out, PS2 had sold 20 million units. That is quite a bit of momentum. This time PS3 won't have that advantage and may be more expensive aswell. This will not be as cut and dry as a lot of people want to think.

Not saying it's cut and dry just looking at the facts from past history. The Playstation has never came out first. You need to read what's on this website http://www.1up.com/do/feature?cId=3145154.

Then after that read this http://www.1up.com/do/feature?pager.offset=1&cId=3145154.


There are plenty of reason on that first website page that shows what can happen. Now obviously the second page has some good things about MS. Yet can MS really close that 70 million unit gap that Sony has had with both the PSone and PS2 with just the X360?

 

[avaya]

Well we're all entitled to our opinion. I see MS taking a substantial lead in the USA and Canada this round, an early 10-15million console lead that Sony will never be able to catch up.

Sony will win Japan easily since they will get much more japanese style games.

Europe is the big question, Sony will have to beat MS soundly to retain their global lead in consoles sold, and I don't know how likely that is, more likely that they do do better in europe but not by a huge margin.

I think we'll end up roughly half and half at the end of this gen taking the 3 regions into account, if sony were to maintain a 10-20% lead that would be a success for them IMO.

I think this is rather optimistic.

Japan is very difficult for Microsoft. I think Nintendo could pull off something there with regards to PS3.

Europe is also very much like Japan for Sony. I would be totally shocked if Microsoft got remotely close to Sony in Europe.

NA is the only real contest this next generation. I honestly cannot predict who will take that market, but I don't see any competitor winning that market by a significant margin.

Those are my "predictions", I won't say I'm 100% confident about any of them

 

[scooby_dooby]

Sure there are the diehards that you see on the internet, but the majority of people just go where the games are. It's that simple. By the time Xbox came out, PS2 had sold 20 million units. That is quite a bit of momentum.

Exactly.

The big flaw I see in XBD and Phil's logic is that of the 70million or so PS2 owners, 100% of them are die hards. It's not the case. A small percentage of those are die-hards, the vast majority simply bought it for the GAMES.

So lets take a look at what consumers really care about, Game Library and Costs. Brand Loyalty is not a determining factor here, you guys like to use precedants set in history alot, so why not take a look at how little brand loyalty has really mattered?

Sony has never faced a competitor like the X360 before, and the #1 reason why is 3rd party developer support. In addition MS is investing extremely heavily in 1st party titles, as can be seen by them creating studios like Real Time Worlds from the creator of GTA, Mistwalker studios from the father of FF, and purchasing heavy weights like RARE, and the list really does go on....

Some people insistance to compare X360 to XBOX, or even dreamcast, really shows how they are not taking a clear look at the situtation, and completely underestimating the type of competition X360 will be offering.

Casual consumers care about game library & price, that's it, bottom line.

The reason I believe Sony will be luck to get a 10-20% lead is because the X360 is going to have an EXTREMELY strong game library, it will have variety and a good selection of AAA titles. It will also be cheap. It's going to drop in price very fast, I believe it's MS's strategy to capitalize on this, their key advantage.

I think you'll also see 3rd party developers begin to develop for the X360 primarily as it carries the lead through 2006, 2007 and likely into 2008. X360 will have a greater installed base, and an easier programming environment with better software. I wouldn't be surprised if by the time we get to 2008 there are still more games on X360 as it becomes the development platform of choice.

It's all about the games, it's all about whether, over the next 3 years, developers decide to bet on Sony and it's eventual installed base(2008-2009) or decide to support the X360 with it's greater installed base and better programming tools.

The 3rd part Dev's will decide this, as well as the 1st party smash-hits from both companies, those are wildcards.

Also, I believe Live! to be somewhat of an X-factor here, it may or may not become a huge driver this generation, and it could be the one thing many people are counting out. But when we look back in 5 or 6 years, Live just might be the feature that really put MS over the top.

But that's just my opinion...

 

[ROG27]

Wrong!

EVERY new generation people start over at Square ONE. You don't automatically obtain the same userbase. Sure there are the diehards that you see on the internet, but the majority of people just go where the games are. It's that simple. By the time Xbox came out, PS2 had sold 20 million units. That is quite a bit of momentum. This time PS3 won't have that advantage and may be more expensive aswell. This will not be as cut and dry as a lot of people want to think.

That used to be the case....but since Backwards Compatibility came into the picture, previous gen installed userbase is HUGE to the success of the next-gen.

 

[mckmas8808]

Exactly.

The big flaw I see in XBD and Phil's logic is that of the 70million or so PS2 owners, 100% of them are die hards. It's not the case. A small percentage of those are die-hards, the vast majority simply bought it for the GAMES.

So lets take a look at what consumers really care about, Game Library and Costs. Brand Loyalty is not a determining factor here, you guys like to use precedants set in history alot, so why not take a look at how little brand loyalty has really mattered?

Sony has never faced a competitor like the X360 before, and the #1 reason why is 3rd party developer support. In addition MS is investing extremely heavily in 1st party titles, as can be seen by them creating studios like Real Time Worlds from the creator of GTA, Mistwalker studios from the father of FF, and purchasing heavy weights like RARE, and the list really does go on....

Some people insistance to compare X360 to XBOX, or even dreamcast, really shows how they are not taking a clear look at the situtation, and completely underestimating the type of competition X360 will be offering.

Casual consumers care about game library & price, that's it, bottom line.

The reason I believe Sony will be luck to get a 10-20% lead is because the X360 is going to have an EXTREMELY strong game library, it will have variety and a good selection of AAA titles. It will also be cheap. It's going to drop in price very fast, I believe it's MS's strategy to capitalize on this, their key advantage.

I think you'll also see 3rd party developers begin to develop for the X360 primarily as it carries the lead through 2006, 2007 and likely into 2008. X360 will have a greater installed base, and an easier programming environment with better software. I wouldn't be surprised if by the time we get to 2008 there are still more games on X360 as it becomes the development platform of choice.

It's all about the games, it's all about whether, over the next 3 years, developers decide to bet on Sony and it's eventual installed base(2008-2009) or decide to support the X360 with it's greater installed base and better programming tools.

The 3rd part Dev's will decide this, as well as the 1st party smash-hits from both companies, those are wildcards.

Also, I believe Live! to be somewhat of an X-factor here, it may or may not become a huge driver this generation, and it could be the one thing many people are counting out. But when we look back in 5 or 6 years, Live just might be the feature that really put MS over the top.

But that's just my opinion...

I see your point scooby, but for your theory to become true the PS3 will have to lose one of its biggest advantages. And that is franchise creation. Didn't the PSone and PS2 have the biggest and most varied libaries in the past 10 years? What is stopping Sony from capturing and creating those great franchises themselves?

Why is it that just because the X360 was lots of great devs on board that, that equals loses on the side of the PS3 and its franchises? Yes you are right the X360 will have great 3rd party support and it will have plenty of great franchises too, but don't you believe that Sony themselves have already proved that they can publish/make great franchises too?

What's stopping Sony from having its same great 3rd party games that its always had? What's stopping Sony from making new franchises like they did when they went from the PSone -> PS2?

 

[mckmas8808]

The best Sony can hope for IMO is to retain a 10-20% lead in overall consoles sold, and even those are lofty goals IMO.

Huh? What? How? Why? Just huh what? So if the PS3 sells lets say 100 million consoles (I can say this because its predesesors have shown it's possible), then you are then believe that the Xbox 360 will sell 85 to 90 million consoles.

Wow! That's something that no other console maker has done whos name is not Sony.

 

[expletive]

What is stopping Sony from capturing and creating those great franchises themselves?

Why is it that just because the X360 was lots of great devs on board that, that equals loses on the side of the PS3 and its franchises? Yes you are right the X360 will have great 3rd party support and it will have plenty of great franchises too, but don't you believe that Sony themselves have already proved that they can publish/make great franchises too?

What's stopping Sony from having its same great 3rd party games that its always had? What's stopping Sony from making new franchises like they did when they went from the PSone -> PS2?

I think the obvious answer here is the development costs of the PS3. We're already hearing grumblings from developers and if the 360 can gain the installed-base momentum that Laa-Yosh talks about earlier in this thread (great post but i think those numbers are unlikely) getting the best software for the PS3 may be more difficult than Sony thinks. When the whole MS strategy is about costs, cost for the consuemrs, the developers, its hard to argue against the almighty dollar.

When you think about it, Sony has built a cost-is-no-object console. Theyve got what has been reported as inferior and extremely pricey development tools/costs. Does this take its toll at some point?

I'm not syaing any of this WILL happen or even that I think it will. Just answering your questions about what's 'stopping Sony'.

 

[expletive]

Sure there are the diehards that you see on the internet, but the majority of people just go where the games are. It's that simple. By the time Xbox came out, PS2 had sold 20 million units. That is quite a bit of momentum. This time PS3 won't have that advantage and may be more expensive aswell. This will not be as cut and dry as a lot of people want to think.

Just some anecdotal evidence. One of the things I do in real life is manage a help desk of about 10 people. 8 of them are young guys who are gamers. 2 are MS guys and the rest are either Sony or 'undeclared'. The MS guys and Sony guys go back and forth from time to time but nothing as harsh as what we see on this forum. On Friday, one of the guys asked everyone to gather around his desk and he showed them the HD NBA 2k6 trailer. All they could say was 'wow'. All the Sony guys asked when it was coming out and how much the system was, after finding out, all but ONE of them said 'i'm buying that, i'm not waiting until next christmas'. (an undeclred guy later went nuts over the PGR3 video and added his name to the 'i'm buying one' list)

OBviously a very small sampling but i think its true that a vast majority of the gamers out there are 'up for grabs' so to speak. If the competition is compelling enough i dont think the past matters as much as you all think. I think since most of the people in THESE forums are diehards for a brand they tend to assume everyone feels that way about their console.

 

[mckmas8808]

I think the obvious answer here is the development costs of the PS3. We're already hearing grumblings from developers and if the 360 can gain the installed-base momentum that Laa-Yosh talks about earlier in this thread (great post but i think those numbers are unlikely) getting the best software for the PS3 may be more difficult than Sony thinks. When the whole MS strategy is about costs, cost for the consuemrs, the developers, its hard to argue against the almighty dollar.

When you think about it, Sony has built a cost-is-no-object console. Theyve got what has been reported as inferior and extremely pricey development tools/costs. Does this take its toll at some point?

I'm not syaing any of this WILL happen or even that I think it will. Just answering your questions about what's 'stopping Sony'.

Thanks expletive for a very fair response. *raises thumb up to the sky* See the problem is this. It has not been proven that games being developed for the PS3 will cost way more than making a game for the X360. Hell we haven't even heard all that much about games being developed for the PS3 due to its earlyness and NDAs.

To be fair expletive you are taking what some precieve as a internet myth and sort of in a small way making it a true statement. I'll wait until the Sony releases it's final game sheet for upcoming games to see if your theory is correct.

Just because Sony hasn't released as much information about the PS3 doesn't mean that it will lose franchises. And if development cost was the main factor for great franchises shouldn't the GC have had the best game this gen?

 

[Mefisutoferesu]

Scooby, can I ask for a rather long winded favor? Would you list all the games that have been announced for Xbox360? Maybe even order them by genre? I'm, frankly, too lazy and you're probably a lot more aware of what's been announced than I am. I'd ask for dates also, but that's a bit excessive. The reason I'm asking is I honestly don't see this large and diverse library for 360 we keep talking about. Surely, the 360 is getting better support than the Xbox got, but looking back that not all that hard. Perhaps, I'm just stuck comparing meaningfully diverse (in other words, interesting to ME) as opposed to diverse in a general sense. What I'm trying to say is I, for some reason or other, can't see that gaming rainbow everyone else sees. I dunno, I guess, all I see is Mistwalker. After that, the support feels no different than what Xbox had, which everyone seems to disagree with me on, but I just don't see anything else. Yeah, square-enix, but a, what?, 3 year old game isn't exactly what I call a win. Frankly, once FFXII comes out FFXI won't mean much to any of the fans, least that's how I feel.

In other words, someone enlighten me! Show me the gaming mecca that is Xbox360!!!

 

[dantruon]

Just some anecdotal evidence. One of the things I do in real life is manage a help desk of about 10 people. 8 of them are young guys who are gamers. 2 are MS guys and the rest are either Sony or 'undeclared'. The MS guys and Sony guys go back and forth from time to time but nothing as harsh as what we see on this forum. On Friday, one of the guys asked everyone to gather around his desk and he showed them the HD NBA 2k6 trailer. All they could say was 'wow'. All the Sony guys asked when it was coming out and how much the system was, after finding out, all but ONE of them said 'i'm buying that, i'm not waiting until next christmas'. (an undeclred guy later went nuts over the PGR3 video and added his name to the 'i'm buying one' list)

OBviously a very small sampling but i think its true that a vast majority of the gamers out there are 'up for grabs' so to speak. If the competition is compelling enough i dont think the past matters as much as you all think. I think since most of the people in THESE forums are diehards for a brand they tend to assume everyone feels that way about their console.

why didnt you showed them the killzone trailer or the the tekken or getway trailer they will be like " i will rob the bank of america tommorow"