Merrill Lynch's Next-Gen console prediction

Joe DeFuria said:
There are pros and cons to being more vertically integrated. Nothing is automatic, otherwise ATI and nVidia would have their own fabs.

When your products reach a certain amount of demand, I'm sure at some point it would be of interest to them as well. Of course, such a task would be a very large investment and risky, but on the other hand, if demand is there to make it feasable...
 
Also, it is quite different for ATI and NVIDIA.

Sony are a hardware company who have been fabbing their own stuff (or most of it anyway) for decades. They have had fabs for decades, they can change those fabs to manufacture pretty much whatever they need. And they can build new fabs if they want. Always with the assurance of getting things from 3rd parties (samsung, toshiba and others come to mind) if need be. Point being that they have had fabs already, they know what it takes, they know the advantages and the disadvantages because they've been through it all.

ATI and NVIDIA have produced much less hardware in their lifetime, they have no fabs of their own, therefore the investment for them would probably be higher than for Sony. That's without taking into consideration that those would be their first fabs ever, and lots of things go wrong when someone does something they have never done before.

Sony obviously felt they had a better deal by fabbing their own chips, in the long run. Or at least they evaluated that the advantages in the long run outweigh the disadvantages. Otherwise it wouldn't take much to them to just outsource fabbing, like everyone does.
 
Hardknock said:
Going by your logic, the PS2 should be much cheaper than the Gamecube to manufacture. Since it's manufactured in-house and has sold 5 times more than the GC. But that's simply not the case. The GC had better hardware, sold 1/5 the amount as PS2 and was still much cheaper. ;)

There are several factors that go into how cheap a console is to manufacture, we simply do not have all the details to make such a call yet.

OK so why are people saying that Sony will not sell the PS3 for $300? Going by your logic (which I think is correct) the fact that we don't have all the details could mean that everyone's $400+ predictions could possibly be wrong. And all those $500 predictions could be wrong too.

Obviously $300 could be a pipe dream, but like you said we don't have all the details yet to make that final call.
 
nelg said:
Please explain how owning your own Fab automatically equals lower cost.
The more they make chips in their own fabs the cheaper those chips get as the depreciation of fab equipments proceed steadily. A very simple economic principle.

OTOH, in a fabless model such as Xbox 360, you are dependent on market dynamics. If a competitor offers a cheaper price tag, another foundry has to follow it. If foundries are reluctant at some stage, it doesn't get cheaper as time goes by. If you can't easily move your production to other foundries, there's even less possibility to pay less.
 
one said:
OTOH, in a fabless model such as Xbox 360, you are dependent on market dynamics. If a competitor offers a cheaper price tag, another foundry has to follow it. If foundries are reluctant at some stage, it doesn't get cheaper as time goes by. If you can't easily move your production to other foundries, there's even less possibility to pay less.

"dependendent on market dynamics" can also be "take advantage of market dynamics". Vendor price competition, advances in fab technology at other facilities besies your own, etc.

I'm sure that Sony figures it was worth building one or else they wouldnt have done it but thats not to say in every case it will be an advantage in the context of this discussion.
 
expletive said:
"dependendent on market dynamics" can also be "take advantage of market dynamics". Vendor price competition, advances in fab technology at other facilities besies your own, etc.

True, though vendors won't price below what it's costing them plus some profits, as it would defeat to whole purpose of running the fab in the first place. ;)
 
Hmmm... Would everyone agree that owning your own fab doesn't by DEFAULT make it cheaper in the short term, or long term?

Nor does outsourcing. Agree?

And ML would certainly have extensive knowledge of Sonys fab capabilities. It is thier proffesional oppinion. Nothing more, nothing less. History will show how close they were.(Not to say that every thing we think is historical, is factual.)

We can make predictions, and it is certainly more interesting when we back that up with sound reasoning. Yet I feel like things are slipping into absolutes for the sole purpose of being right. :)

I think both companies are likely to have teams devoted solely to cost management/Reduction, and therefore will rank it according to their corporate strategy/Finacial Capability.

My prediction is that the 360 will continualy hold a slight lead due to age, it being IMHO, the biggest uncontrollable factor.
 
liverkick said:
What Ive learned here on the B3D Console forum is that generalizing opinion in such a dismissive and skewed manner (as you've done here) isnt usually the best way to promote conversation and civil debate. Disagreeing with a general sentiment without providing any nuance or addressing individual points by lazily phrasing the cadence of discussion as "pro Sony" or "pro MS" is simply false martyrdom, and very boring at that.
I wish I knew what the fuck you're talking about. Hell, I wish you knew what the fuck I was talking about before replying with that knee-jerk post.
 
expletive said:
"dependendent on market dynamics" can also be "take advantage of market dynamics". Vendor price competition, advances in fab technology at other facilities besies your own, etc.
Sure, but it's not very clear in the Xbox 360 case as I wrote in the previous post in this thread. The ICs in Xbox 360 stay state-of-the-art at least in 2005-2006 so they have to pay premium fee. Also you have to fight other customers of foundries. In market economy, if other customer can pay as much and fill state-of-the-art production facilities, the priority of investment by a foundry may go to technologies which are not applicable to Xbox 360. If MS wants to shrink chips aggressively, it will continue to be tough. Anyway, it's up to how much MS can lose, as ML suggests. 5 years? 10 years? Who knows.

Then why MS don't build or buy their fabs? It's because manufacturing semiconductors such as CCD and laser-diodes is not their business as london-boy wrote.

SirTendeth said:
Hmmm... Would everyone agree that owning your own fab doesn't by DEFAULT make it cheaper in the short term, or long term?

Nor does outsourcing. Agree?
Of course things happen so you can't say for sure about the future but at least PS2 was a success. Fabless companies, Sega and Nintendo could put cheaper price tags on their products, but they lost in the end, probably because of other reasons than manufacturing cost.
 
I think the first half of this thread was "Do analysts know what they're talking about?", and the second half has become "Intricacies of fabbing."

All in all it's been a good thread with some good discussion that by all rights should never have made it this far based on the topic material.

Anyway on the vertical vs horizontal, I think the move definitely makes sense for Sony. PS3 provides a catalyst for them to build out this fab capacity, with some strong assurance of cost coverage in the future, but Cell and RSX production isn't the end-all be-all. Now having the new Nagasaki line in place, this is a fab that will be useful to them 10 years out, should Cell succeed or even should it fail. They'll always need chips, for PS4 (assuming there is one, right?), for their various CE devices (insourcing IC chip R&D and production is a new push for their CE division), and for any other of their own chips which they sell to others - digital camera chips being one strong one for them at the moment.

So I think the PS3/Cell provided the critical mass for the build-up, but now since reached, win or lose on Cell this fab capacity is going to be useful to them.

Remember that CE is a very high-volume field, and fab capacity gets soaked up if you're doing things right. The GPU comparisson has been made, but GPU's truly are a business more suited to outsourcing. NVidia and ATI simply do not have the capital for a modern fab investment; for them the risk would be enormous. With product cycles as they are better to have the flexibility to jump from fab to fab should a decisive advantage present itself or to contract out to multiple fabs should volume warrant it, all on a case by case basis.
 
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one said:
Sure, but it's not very clear in the Xbox 360 case as I wrote in the previous post in this thread. The ICs in Xbox 360 stay state-of-the-art at least in 2005-2006 so they have to pay premium fee. Also you have to fight other customers of foundries. In market economy, if other customer can pay as much and fill state-of-the-art production facilities, the priority of investment by a foundry may go to technologies which are not applicable to Xbox 360. If MS wants to shrink chips aggressively, it will continue to be tough. Anyway, it's up to how much MS can lose, as ML suggests. 5 years? 10 years? Who knows.

Then why MS don't build or buy their fabs? It's because manufacturing semiconductors such as CCD and laser-diodes is not their business as london-boy wrote.

Of course things happen so you can't say for sure about the future but at least PS2 was a success. Fabless companies, Sega and Nintendo could put cheaper price tags on their products, but they lost in the end, probably because of other reasons than manufacturing cost.

There are so many factors that go into what 'MS pays TSMC and what it costs Sony' to make chips that i dont think we can tie it up into a definitive advantage/disadvantage.

Youre right though MS wont build a fab because its not their core business, thats added risk to their strategy and its unnescessary. A large part of what MS is doing is paying fabs to assume that risk of being able to meet demand, and to deal with any problems that arise in the process.

"Fighting with other companies" isnt really a problem since MS has a demand, and then the fabs agree to meet that by a certain date, the end. MS may or may not know who else is using the fabs and probably doesnt care, as long as they get THEIR parts on THEIR timeline.

What if TSMC develops a process for producing ICs thats far superior to Sony and lowers relative costs by 30%? Then MS has an advantage. And vice-versa for Sony. In the fab business Sony is also a competitor for companies like TSMC, especially since Sony wants to sell cells to everyone. It behooves TSMC to be able to produce the products that compete with Cell as cheap as possible so people buy THOSE and NOT Cells.

And i would say that any Sega and Nintendo failures you mention are not 'probably' becuase of other reasons, but definitely becuase of other reasons.
 
Sorry if what I posted was confusing. I was trying to lighten the focus on internal vs. outsourced Fabs.

To clarify it wasn't really future speculations that I was hoping we could avoid. But rather treating Fabrication as a singular Item, when it is in and of itself a broad industry. With all the complexities associated with being competitive in any mature industry.

And I don’t think there is any history that favors internal or outsourced fabrication. This may be why you see such a strong mix of companies using both.

one said:
Of course things happen so you can't say for sure about the future but at least PS2 was a success. Fabless companies, Sega and Nintendo could put cheaper price tags on their products, but they lost in the end, probably because of other reasons than manufacturing cost.

Low Fabrication costs provide their own type of win, as Nintendo has shown, but like you pointed out it didn't win the market penetration war- and their focus on price- at the expense of other areas- may have been a strong factor.

This is why I mentioned the Focus vs. Cost equation. Sometimes Cost is a predominant focus, and Ironically you can lose money by focusing to hard on just making it- see downsizing-.

I think Sony is focused on achieving a greater degree of positioning, as an all around Media/Entertainment Company (like Microsoft in the OS world). And if this is the case, they may subordinate their financials as much as possible given their capitol/credit capabilities, to achieve this goal.
 
expletive said:
What if TSMC develops a process for producing ICs thats far superior to Sony and lowers relative costs by 30%? Then MS has an advantage. And vice-versa for Sony. In the fab business Sony is also a competitor for companies like TSMC, especially since Sony wants to sell cells to everyone. It behooves TSMC to be able to produce the products that compete with Cell as cheap as possible so people buy THOSE and NOT Cells.
Well, there are too many 'what if's in your sentences it seems. Where's that breakthrough tech for fabbing? Where's a super processor that eclipses Cell? If you have any concrete info, then some investor bank may be interested... ;) if not, it's over.
 
At least i'm not the one who's been completely one-sided on any discussion we've ever had.

What does this mean? You are being one-sided right now, what is your point? I asked for clarifications with your comments, so obviously I'm open to differing opinions. As for you I'm not so sure...

What "signs" point to GC being "significantly cheaper" than PS2, if i may ask?
Because if anything, the "signs" are that PS2 (or PStwo) should be cheaper, (1) the EE and GS is one chip now at 90nm and has been for ages, compared to the 2 chip (Flipper+Gekko at a bigger manufacturing process, making the chips bigger than using 90nm process) solution of GC, therefore cheaper, (2) Sony's making the whole thing in house without many external clients to pay, (3) PS2 is older technology, (4) PS2 has sold 5 times as much as GC and keeps outselling it by god knows what margin, therofre economies of scale would dictate PS2 should be cheaper anyway.

The GC was made in 2001 with cheaper processes from the get go. Sony was selling the PS2 for $300 and losing money, while Nintendo was making money and selling GC for $250. Just because something came out before something else and is weaker doesn't automatically mean it's cheaper to manufacture. Remember Sony has to pay for DVD movie rights, a DVD drive, and chips for PS1 backwards compatibility. All things that Nintendo didn't have to worry about. Also lets not forget the BILLIONS that went into developing the EE and GS chips(remember they were envisioning it going into multiple appliances which it didn't) which they would need to recoup. As for fabbing yourself, that is a plus in one sense, but you also have to build the plants and manage everything yourself, which costs even more money you have to recoup. The PStwo has to use a relatively expensive laptop DVD drive. And looking at the PCB of the GC, it's much less complex than the PStwo board.

They are either equal or PStwo is cheaper, according to those "signs". Now if you have other "signs", i'd love to see them.
As i said, the fact that PS2 is more expensive in the shops has absolutely nothing to do with how much it costs to manufacture. It just means that Sony can sell it at that price, because people keep buying the bloody thing!! PS2 was even more expensive (in the shops) than Xbox at one point, and today i think they sell for the same price, that in no way means that PS2 costs more (or the same) to manufacture than Xbox.

Hey PStwo may be the same as GC to produce now, but neither of us know either way. And it's funny that the GC is more powerful, came out later, sold 1/5 as much and Sony is just now equaling it's manufacturing price(which personally I still think the GC is cheaper, but whatever.) Shoots a big hole in the "manufacturing in-house automatically makes your system cheaper" theory. ;)
 
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SirTendeth said:
I think Sony is focused on achieving a greater degree of positioning, as an all around Media/Entertainment Company (like Microsoft in the OS world). And if this is the case, they may subordinate their financials as much as possible given their capitol/credit capabilities, to achieve this goal.

Now if Sony wanted to position itself as the best all around Media/Entertainment Company (which I agree they are trying to do) would it be smart for them to put the most important part of this entertainment package out at twice the price of its nearest competitors price? Why would Sony charge $500 for the PS3 (the end all be all machine) at the sametime knowing that MS could cut $50 off of the core pack to charge $250? Wouldn't Sony realize that could not only directly hurt the PS3 hardware and software sales, but also hurt the income that the PS3 could pull through other mediums like Blu-ray movie sales and music and movie downloads on the PS3 from Sony:Connect?

If they price it too high they will never be the center of the living room.:???:
 
Sony might think that they can get the consumers onboard at a higher price, much like they did against the GC and dreamcast.

The scale has just moved up.

Or they may feel that gambit won't work well against the 360, and will try to absorb the costs internally until they have met their goals, or until investor hemoraghing starts.

It's an elaborate chess game... and were all sports commentators.

And we are about as exciting sometimes ;)
 
Hardknock:

I actually just wrote a lengthy reply addressing nearly each and every sentance of yours but decided to write it all up again, since it really wouldn't help this thread much. In short, you're points are inaccurate on so many levels, I don't even know where to beginn.

Lets just say, you're comparing apples to oranges when you're comparing a console that launched in 2000 with a target price of $299 and a console that launched in late 2001 with a target price of $199. The point being, both had very different targets, one of which also influenced transistor budget which is a larger factor in console pricing/costs.

To make it short: PS2 launched on a very large process and with the very large chips as a result, naturally, PS2 was very expensive initially. I never[/i] disagreed with nor did I ever state otherwise. What I did state however is that I am quite convinced that at the moment with PStwo on Sony's latest process is probably equal the GameCube's cost or cheaper to produce. This is obviously something Sony planned from the beginning when they decided to invest in fabs and launch a very large EE+GS back in 2000. The result was obviously massive losses initially which quickly turned into profits at a later time when they were able to shrink the process and later go onto 90nm and merge the EE and the GS into one single LSI.

In short, had Nintendo launched back in 2000 as Sony did with equal cost/pricing targets, GameCube would have been weaker - substantially - given the process would have been less advanced and the chips larger and thus costing more. It's only obvious that Nintendo decided to launch over a year later and benefit from more advanced processes in fabbing and thus more powerful hardware only comes naturally. Xbox is no different. You can also scale it the other way around: What if Sony had launched a year later using the latest processes as well? The result would be obviously more powerful hardware or equal hardware at a reduced costs - or simply slightly more powerful with still reduced costs - which is where I'd put GameCube.

Now, I obviously compared Sony's advantage of having their own fabs with PS3 with Xbox360 because they are both going for very similar targets: The CPUs and GPUs have roughly the same transistor budgets and they're using the same processes as well. Because Sony has their own fabs though, as I said, I do expect them to be in a very good position later on when they can successfully move on to a smaller process and have direct control over their costs/prices without any middleman wanting to earn money. Microsoft doesn't have this luxory - the vendors that are supplying them with the necessary chips do want to make a profit as well - and thus, each and every chip comes at a cost. On the other hand, as you said, they don't need to worry about risks, fab maintenance or effectively making the most out of fabs which is where Sony is spending money (in other words investing). If Sony can successfully use these fabs to their full capacity, they will have an advantage - and with PS2 being fabbed internally, PSP and soon to be PS3 - I'm sure they will have an advantage somewhere down the line. Obviously, if they hadn't and could get the chips cheaper from say IBM, they obviously would. They aren't, so I'm assuming they are for reasons we can only assume to be in their advantage. Simple logic, isn't it?

As for the rest you posted about GC and PS2 hardware: You forgot to factor in that Sony is apart of the DVD forum, dvd-movie licencing is peanuts, GameCube has a drive as well (same mechanics, same laser), the PSone chips (it's only 1 chip!) are not simply wasted for backwards-compatibilty but is recycled in the way that it is used as an Input-Output-Chip - something the GameCube has too! Also EE & GS R&D did not cost billions - what cost billions were fab investments that Sony Group as a whole is going to use to their advantage as is PS2, PStwo, PSP and soon to be PS3.

Anyway, as I said - no one is arguing that PS2 was cheaper to manufacure than GameCube, what I did say is that PStwo in its last incarnation on the 90nm process with a merged EE+GS as a single chip is most likely cheaper than GameCube.
 
Phil said:
Hardknock:

I actually just wrote a lengthy reply addressing nearly each and every sentance of yours but decided to write it all up again, since it really wouldn't help this thread much. In short, you're points are inaccurate on so many levels, I don't even know where to beginn.

Lets just say, you're comparing apples to oranges when you're comparing a console that launched in 2000 with a target price of $299 and a console that launched in late 2001 with a target price of $199. The point being, both had very different targets, one of which also influenced transistor budget which is a larger factor in console pricing/costs.

To make it short: PS2 launched on a very large process and with the very large chips as a result, naturally, PS2 was very expensive initially. I never[/i] disagreed with nor did I ever state otherwise. What I did state however is that I am quite convinced that at the moment with PStwo on Sony's latest process is probably equal the GameCube's cost or cheaper to produce. This is obviously something Sony planned from the beginning when they decided to invest in fabs and launch a very large EE+GS back in 2000. The result was obviously massive losses initially which quickly turned into profits at a later time when they were able to shrink the process and later go onto 90nm and merge the EE and the GS into one single LSI.

In short, had Nintendo launched back in 2000 as Sony did with equal cost/pricing targets, GameCube would have been weaker - substantially - given the process would have been less advanced and the chips larger and thus costing more. It's only obvious that Nintendo decided to launch over a year later and benefit from more advanced processes in fabbing and thus more powerful hardware only comes naturally. Xbox is no different. You can also scale it the other way around: What if Sony had launched a year later using the latest processes as well? The result would be obviously more powerful hardware or equal hardware at a reduced costs - or simply slightly more powerful with still reduced costs - which is where I'd put GameCube.

Now, I obviously compared Sony's advantage of having their own fabs with PS3 with Xbox360 because they are both going for very similar targets: The CPUs and GPUs have roughly the same transistor budgets and they're using the same processes as well. Because Sony has their own fabs though, as I said, I do expect them to be in a very good position later on when they can successfully move on to a smaller process and have direct control over their costs/prices without any middleman wanting to earn money. Microsoft doesn't have this luxory - the vendors that are supplying them with the necessary chips do want to make a profit as well - and thus, each and every chip comes at a cost. On the other hand, as you said, they don't need to worry about risks, fab maintenance or effectively making the most out of fabs which is where Sony is spending money (in other words investing). If Sony can successfully use these fabs to their full capacity, they will have an advantage - and with PS2 being fabbed internally, PSP and soon to be PS3 - I'm sure they will have an advantage somewhere down the line. Obviously, if they hadn't and could get the chips cheaper from say IBM, they obviously would. They aren't, so I'm assuming they are for reasons we can only assume to be in their advantage. Simple logic, isn't it?

As for the rest you posted about GC and PS2 hardware: You forgot to factor in that Sony is apart of the DVD forum, dvd-movie licencing is peanuts, GameCube has a drive as well (same mechanics, same laser), the PSone chips (it's only 1 chip!) are not simply wasted for backwards-compatibilty but is recycled in the way that it is used as an Input-Output-Chip - something the GameCube has too! Also EE & GS R&D did not cost billions - what cost billions were fab investments that Sony Group as a whole is going to use to their advantage as is PS2, PStwo, PSP and soon to be PS3.

Anyway, as I said - no one is arguing that PS2 was cheaper to manufacure than GameCube, what I did say is that PStwo in its last incarnation on the 90nm process with a merged EE+GS as a single chip is most likely cheaper than GameCube.


Wow, great synopsis! :p It's cool when people can discuss/debate things without it getting personal. I pretty much agree with all your points, I was just pointing out that nothing is for certain and it's not impossible for Xbox 360 to be cheaper to manufacture than PS3 over the course of next-gen. Certainly for Sony to even get on the same level as MS it will take several years, tremendous sales and several refreshes. I'd say for the next few years atleast, MS will have a lot more flexibility when it comes to pricing, wouldn't you agree?
 
london-boy said:
Don't you go around telling people how to post.
You do see the irony here, right? :p



SirTendeth said:
It's an elaborate chess game... and were all sports commentators.
I call Madden.

"Well, see here what we have is good chess. Good chess is when good chess players play chess in the way only they know how. This player here in the hastily drawn white circle on the Replaycam is my kind of player. Look, we've only had 4 moves and he's already bleeding and grass stained."
 
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