scooby_dooby said:
Exactly.
The big flaw I see in XBD and Phil's logic is that of the 70million or so PS2 owners, 100% of them are die hards. It's not the case. A small percentage of those are die-hards, the vast majority simply bought it for the GAMES.
Before you start discrediting what I post, at least have the decency to read it and know at least what you're arguing. Throughout all my posts I have analyzed the userbase and made assumptions as to how they are split up between hardcores, loyal supporters and casuals. What you have failed to address on multiple occasions is that many of the Sony consumers not only bought it because it has a bigger software collection but because it is the number one selling brand that most people feel confortable with. They know it'll be supported through the end, that it should receive the largest support and that it's regarded as the best and easiest choice for them. It's convinient and it's a brand-name that they trust because it's the safe bet.
You also got the numbers wrong: The PS2 has reached 90+ million, not 70. From those 90+/- million consumers, I assume that somewhere around 60-70 million are exclusive to the PlayStation brandname. Undoubtedly, many of todays exclusive owners also originated from the PlayStation userbase. How many of those will not be anticipating a PS3 more until they show interest in a potential Xbox360 as long as Microsoft isn't offering more / better? (and from the casuals point of view, they are not)
scooby_dooby said:
So lets take a look at what consumers really care about, Game Library and Costs. Brand Loyalty is not a determining factor here, you guys like to use precedants set in history alot, so why not take a look at how little brand loyalty has really mattered?
No, they also care about the value attached to the system. Consumer confidence is an important factor as well. Consumers don't simply buy because one has x times more games than the other - they buy what seems to be "the big thing" - an investment that should last them for quite some time and deliver on their gaming needs. There's a reason why PS2 blew away the casuals. If what you say is true (that mindshare isn't a factor), then consumers would have picked up the Dreamcast like crazy without worrying about Sega's image problems. They didn't however, for reasons quite obvious: The PS2 was the great successor of a system bought by millions, the timing of the launch was right (Dreamcast was too early after millions had just bought a PSone and was still primary supported by publishers) and marketing as backwards-compatibility. While you may choose to put down backwards-compatibilty - it is a factor to especially consumers that lookup back on their 10 to 20 or so games and a slowly old and breaking PS2 and think
"hey, at least I'll still be able to use my games on the next Sony system" - and that again, is added value for money and it makes them feel confident in their purchase. They also feel confident that the software they'll buy for PS3 will also be backwards-compatible 5-6 years down the road when PS4 will come out. Sure, no one will actually go back and play the old games, but it's still something that adds value. The knowledge of knowing that your money on software the last couple of years wasn't entirely wasted.
scooby_dooby said:
Sony has never faced a competitor like the X360 before, and the #1 reason why is 3rd party developer support. In addition MS is investing extremely heavily in 1st party titles, as can be seen by them creating studios like Real Time Worlds from the creator of GTA, Mistwalker studios from the father of FF, and purchasing heavy weights like RARE, and the list really does go on....
Go and repeat that a little while longer. While it means something to the average Xbox fan outthere, it means squat to the average PS owner. In fact, the casuals you are talking about don't take notes of the producers and which company is supporting which. No one cares about games that may or may not come. The casual consumer takes notice then, when something big does launch and delivers something new and great experience. Look at EyeToy for reference. Sure, what you are talking about has potential to end some striked 3 to 4 years down the road, but it will simply not matter anytime soon and the casuals won't even know about it until that potential turns into something successful.
Xbox360 has healthy support and that's what matters. Though while the Xbox360 is supported by 3rd parties, PS3 is as well - and receiving much more support as we speak. While the Xbox might be launching earlier (and that IS its prime advantage), you still have to note that most casuals are still buying PS2s at the moment - they won't be running out anytime soon to buy a Xbox360. They'll be buying once the price drops and by then, PS3 will be out as well, probably with as many games as Xbox360 on the shelve - and simply because it has more support and these games are in development already. And a lot of these games are franchises and successors of games people already know. How many of the teams you have mentioned above have an established franchise on the market? Rare's games are new (except for PerfectDark that is), the creators of GTA? No one knows them by their new name. And "father" of the FFs - you do are aware that he wasn't the producor of the last 5 main Final Fantasy's that have sold millions, right? You also are aware that the next Final Fantasy is coming out exclusivily for PS2 right? And you can be sure that the next Final Fantasy (XIV) will most likely be exclusive to PS3 right?
Scooby_dooby said:
Some people insistance to compare X360 to XBOX, or even dreamcast, really shows how they are not taking a clear look at the situtation, and completely underestimating the type of competition X360 will be offering.
Quite to the contrary, mon amie. In fact, I have posted quite a bit more on the entire subject accounting for more factors than you ever had. I am in no way putting down the Xbox360's potential and how much competition it will be to the PS3. However the numbers you are suggesting are surreal and quite laughable at this point of time. There's nothing supporting it beyond the fact that Microsoft does have money and even that ment squat last generation. It's quite evident that you are very excited about Microsoft's next console and I'm sure many other Xbox fans feel the same as well. To suggest that everyone feels the way you do though is quite far from the truth though. Again: While you might be very excited - at this point, many of the PlayStation userbase don't give a damn. And I'm not speaking about this forum or any other forum in particular either: Just go and ask around people that have been PlayStation consumers since the last generations and have come to enjoy some of the PlayStation exclusive franchises. Or visit some rather PlayStation exclusive boards (not any of the tech-orientated boards like this one, I'm speaking of the more casual ones outthere).
Scooby_dooby said:
Casual consumers care about game library & price, that's it, bottom line.
As other factors as well. Read above.
Scooby_dooby said:
The reason I believe Sony will be luck to get a 10-20% lead is because the X360 is going to have an EXTREMELY strong game library, it will have variety and a good selection of AAA titles. It will also be cheap. It's going to drop in price very fast, I believe it's MS's strategy to capitalize on this, their key advantage.
As I already said, you might be very excited as an Xbox fan to what is coming your way but I think you're off in Lala-land if you believe most of the PlayStation casuals that just bought a PS2 recently are already all hyped and pysched up as you are. Reality is; They aren't - they've just begun enjoying their PS2 and by the time they'll be looking into buying a new system is when the PS3 will already be out - and that is sometime in 2006. Xbox360 won't be cheaper than the PS3 anyway - not in its premium form, that you can be sure of. As a reminder: Microsoft is launching at $399 now and it won't drop the price until later next year as they wouldn't want to piss of their own consumers that just got a Xbox360 at its high price. Expect price drops around christmas next year and the premium Xbox360 will not be sold below $299, that you can be sure of. If anything, Microsoft will be gambling their way with the basic SKU, the one that's going to be sold now for $299. On the other hand, you have absolutely no proof or idea at what price Sony is going to launch their PS3 in North America when it launches. My prediction is, if they launch in Spring in NA, it'll be at $399 - the same price as the Xbox360 premium package - or if they launch near fall, somewhere between $299 and $349. I guess it'll depend how well Xbox360 is doing until then that will influence the price tag - so, we shall see. If the prices do end up being in the same league, I fail to see what kind of a cost advantage Microsoft will have. The hype around the PS3 will be huge and the software will be there as well (thanks to the support they are already receiving). Then there is Blu-Ray and marketing which will make PS3 look as the bigger, better investment to last over the next 6 years. If casuals are already perceiving Xbox360 as Xbox1.5 now, do you really believe they won't go for a brand-new high-tech PS3 when it launches? Again, keep in mind that the PlayStation brand is the best selling console brand for the last 10 years - it has the largest loyal fanbase and it's going to get the biggest support by publishers that already cashed in on the last two generations on Sony's consoles. The timing will be right as well, since many of the casuals that bought their PS2 in 2002-2004 will be looking for something new in late 2006. And then again, there will be backwards-compability with all their favorite games that are just barely working on their old and breaking PS2. Added value again. And as for costs - even if PS3 is going to be more expensive (even if by little), if consumers feel they are getting something better that will last them for the next 5 years and give them a Blu-Ray player - they'll buy it. As I said, consumers favoured the more expensive PS2 over the newer Xbox as well - why? Not solely because of the bigger game library - but also because of consumer confidence of knowing "this product is selling and my games from last generation will work as well - and its the safest bet".
Scooby_dooby said:
I think you'll also see 3rd party developers begin to develop for the X360 primarily as it carries the lead through 2006, 2007 and likely into 2008. X360 will have a greater installed base, and an easier programming environment with better software. I wouldn't be surprised if by the time we get to 2008 there are still more games on X360 as it becomes the development platform of choice.
Answered already above. *Hint* There's more support for the PS3 already. As for multi-platform games and which will be the primary console of development: does it even matter? No one was aware of that this generation (and a few games were targeted for Xbox first and later ported to PS2) - what do the casuals care as long as the game is coming out? Answer: no one, as did no one this generation either.
Scooby Dooby said:
It's all about the games, it's all about whether, over the next 3 years, developers decide to bet on Sony and it's eventual installed base(2008-2009) or decide to support the X360 with it's greater installed base and better programming tools.
I think you're in for a mighty disappointment. As I said, first year: Hardcore and loyal supporters for the most part - after that year, casuals will make up for more and more of the growing fanbase. PS3 will be already be out then... but hey, Dreamcast's superiour userbase sure made a difference didn't it? (factor in that casuals - as you are arguing - don't give a damn about mindshare and brandname....
)
Scooby_dooby said:
The 3rd part Dev's will decide this, as well as the 1st party smash-hits from both companies, those are wildcards.
Also, I believe Live! to be somewhat of an X-factor here, it may or may not become a huge driver this generation, and it could be the one thing many people are counting out. But when we look back in 5 or 6 years, Live just might be the feature that really put MS over the top.
You sure are a believer aren't you? Well, I guess enjoy it while it still lasts.
