Kutaragi on delay and on sony

[fireshot]

Executing so poorly? They're late with the Euro launch but so far they haven't even "executed" anything... They obviously have very persuasive execs, because even after all this "disappointment" that you speak, all the major games that MS can only dream of are still Sony exclusive. Call that whatever you like but it won't change the fact that at the end of the day, so far the PS3 library will be to the 360 Library what the PS2 library was to the Xbox one. Sure, american and PC gamers might like the Xbox library, but in the end it's easy to see what Sony's strengths are. Whatever "disappointment" European gamers might feel and whatever shortages there will be, which are hardly unexpected anyway.

What major games? I can only think of Final Fantasy 13 and Metal Gear 4 that will sell past the million mark in Europe. You make it sound like there are more. Are you even sure of the actual importance of japanese games in Europe? What makes you think Sony can easily round up(exclusives) japanese publishers? Is there a guarantee that japanese publishers will stick(exclusives) with Sony again?

Sony can delay the thing, lose some exclusives, all that will be forgotten if they can set another PR victory with PS3. PS2 sold on perception. Perception first, games will come a little later. I have to agree with Sethamin.

 

[Arwin]

You're bias is showing through here, anyone who thinks the 360 library will be to the PS3 library as XBOX was to PS2 is borderline delusional.

Well, now you yourself are exaggerating. It could still happen, depending on how things progress after the first year. If the PS3 can bring down costs faster than most people expect, and the games on PS3 really do turn out more powerful in a number of ways (any one or a combination of BluRay / 6-way motion controller / built-in harddrive / Cell / 1gbit network controller / Linux / Failing Support in Japan could be the final decider here), it could still eclipse the 360. Then if on the other side of the market the Wii also eclipses the 360, the 360 might just fail a lot harder than expected.

Mind you, I'm just painting a scenario that I don't necessarily believe will come to bear. To be honest, I don't feel comfortable predicting what will happen at all.

But I do take issue with the 'borderline delusional' comment.

 

[London Geezer]

"all the major games"? what planet are you living on? There are the Square Enix games, and MGS, but last time I checked Halo and GTA outsold both of those handily if you really want to talk "major" games.

You're bias is showing through here, anyone who thinks the 360 library will be to the PS3 library as XBOX was to PS2 is borderline delusional.

My bias?! The cheek!

Halo and GTA aren't the only games released in the last generation, but to be honest i don't think it's worth discussing with you about this, after all you're the one who seems to think that Halo3 will see anywhere near what Halo sold, or that some obviously PC-inspired games will make the 360 the platform MS is hoping to take over the world with.

MS still has lots to learn and achieve. Some people here still have lots to learn.

Next time you try to call someone "borderline delusional", try to get some facts. Last time i checked, Sony sold 200M consoles just on the strength of their library. MS is still trying to get close to 40M for both Xbox and 360.

If there is someone who is delusional here, it's definitely not me.

 

[Sethamin]

Executing so poorly? They're late with the Euro launch but so far they haven't even "executed" anything....Whatever "disappointment" European gamers might feel and whatever shortages there will be, which are hardly unexpected anyway.

Whoa, whoa, don't be so touchy. I'm not trying to take potshots at Sony here or be partisan, but it's not at all unfair to say that Sony has executed poorly so far. Only being able to commit to 500k units at launch is pretty poor by any standard, particularly when they had to revise it down from previous expectations and and an earlier launch delay. Obviously they are not executing on manufacturing. Fine, sure, they have component shortages, but we shouldn't be making excuses for them just because it seems to be out of their control. Those dependencies are a function of their own decision making and at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is if there are boxes on the shelves for consumers.

They obviously have very persuasive execs, because even after all this "disappointment" that you speak, all the major games that MS can only dream of are still Sony exclusive. Call that whatever you like but it won't change the fact that at the end of the day, so far the PS3 library will be to the 360 Library what the PS2 library was to the Xbox one.

I never even mentioned MS nor 360, nor do I particularly care who has a larger software library. Plus, why is the word "disappointing" in quotes, considering I never even uttered the word? Calm down.

Nevertheless, I don't see how you can make such a definitive statement considering one of the consoles hasn't even launched yet. I understand Sony is still the market leader, but most people agree that this generation will not be as unbalanced (in terms of market share) as the PS2 generation was. For example, GTA is no longer a Sony exclusive (or timed exclusive), so clearly MS got at least one of the games that they wanted. Only time will tell if any others will follow, but my overall point was simply that Sony has earned the perception of slipping as of late, and perception is hugely important to getting publishers aboard. You yourself made exactly that same point earlier in the thread. Whether it will matter in the end has yet to be determined.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

Very true Scooby. Even Enchanted Arms is better than what MS would have gotten last time around from Jap devs, let alone quality stuff like Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey. Then add full EA support from the beginning, SK, Bioware etc... and you can see that MS has lined up pretty good support. Much better than Xbox.

 

[expletive]

Well, now you yourself are exaggerating. It could still happen, depending on how things progress after the first year. If the PS3 can bring down costs faster than most people expect, and the games on PS3 really do turn out more powerful in a number of ways (any one or a combination of BluRay / 6-way motion controller / built-in harddrive / Cell / 1gbit network controller / Linux / Failing Support in Japan could be the final decider here), it could still eclipse the 360. Then if on the other side of the market the Wii also eclipses the 360, the 360 might just fail a lot harder than expected.

Mind you, I'm just painting a scenario that I don't necessarily believe will come to bear. To be honest, I don't feel comfortable predicting what will happen at all.

But I do take issue with the 'borderline delusional' comment.

I think the idea with scooby's post is that this is the trend we're already seeing happen today, not something based on 'ifs'. Its clear this time around that a lot more titles will be multiplatform and there will be AAA exclusives on both platforms. The PS3 will probably still have an edge because of the long running franchises but i think its clear there will be plenty of good, top games for both systems and the library wont be near the differentiator it was last gen.

Next-gen will be interesting though, I am curious of MS can really leverage the PC space to effectively swing even more support their way in terms of software.

 

[Titanio]

Its clear this time around that a lot more titles will be multiplatform and there will be AAA exclusives on both platforms. The PS3 will probably still have an edge because of the long running franchises but i think its clear there will be plenty of good, top games for both systems and the library wont be near the differentiator it was last gen.

I don't agree this is clear, yet at least. How much as really changed? I say this every time it comes up, but most western games were already multiplatform last generation, except where technical issues prevented it - it was always a question of eastern games, for the most part, and where they landed. And I don't think the situation there is clear at all yet.

 

[expletive]

I don't agree this is clear, yet at least. How much as really changed? I say this every time it comes up, but most western games were already multiplatform last generation, except where technical issues prevented it - it was always a question of eastern games, for the most part, and where they landed. And I don't think the situation there is clear at all yet.

Which eastern games are you referring to specifically? Are these games are really impactful for Japan or globally?

 

[scooby_dooby]

If there is someone who is delusional here, it's definitely not me.

If you believe there will be a 5:1 ratio of games for PS3:360 like there was for PS2:XBOX I think that's a little far fetched.

There is absolutely no reason for publishers to favour PS3 as heavily as they favoured PS2, any reasonable logic puts the game libraries extremely close this generation simply because 360 already has the support of basically all 3rd party publishers, a large install base lead, and a much lower pricepoint.

The differantiator will be 1st party titles this generation, last geneartion this was not the case, Sony had massive amounts of 3rd party games that XBOX did not see which contributed greatly to it's more 'diverse' game library.

Explain to me your scenario where you envision publishers producing 5times as many games for PS3 as they do for 360, as I simply don't see that as being a possibility at all.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Well, now you yourself are exaggerating. It could still happen, depending on how things progress after the first year. If the PS3 can bring down costs faster than most people expect, and the games on PS3 really do turn out more powerful in a number of ways (any one or a combination of BluRay / 6-way motion controller / built-in harddrive / Cell / 1gbit network controller / Linux / Failing Support in Japan could be the final decider here), it could still eclipse the 360. Then if on the other side of the market the Wii also eclipses the 360, the 360 might just fail a lot harder than expected.

Mind you, I'm just painting a scenario that I don't necessarily believe will come to bear. To be honest, I don't feel comfortable predicting what will happen at all.

But I do take issue with the 'borderline delusional' comment.

It could eclipse it sure, but it would ne nowhere near the level that PS2 was.

Sure PS3 could end up having more games, probably will when all is said and done, I'm not disputing that. But the comparison to the PS2 is just ridiculous, there will be nowhere near that big of a gap.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Executing so poorly? They're late with the Euro launch but so far they haven't even "executed" anything...

This is pretty funny as well. The DELAYED the launch from March an entire 6 months, and then when they finally do launch the most the can come up with is 500k units, 6 months after the initial launch date was promised?

To you there is absolutely no lack of execution here? Everything is just peachy?

Edit - seems I woke up a little argumentative today

 

[fireshot]

I don't agree this is clear, yet at least. How much as really changed? I say this every time it comes up, but most western games were already multiplatform last generation, except where technical issues prevented it - it was always a question of eastern games, for the most part, and where they landed. And I don't think the situation there is clear at all yet.

The situation can only be better for 360(global) and Wii(global + japan).

 

[Titanio]

Which eastern games are you referring to specifically? Are these games are really impactful for Japan or globally?

I'm asking you to look at the trend in publishing in the east at the moment vs the west. With western publishers, chances are a game will be announced for PS3/360/PC/whatever (much the same way that most came to PS2/Xbox/whatever). In the east, not so much, still (though some, like capcom, were already very multiplatform..but the bulk of the japanese publishing community were pretty mono-platform). Not that we have a whole lot of insight into where japanese publishers are right now, but I figure we might after TGS. Like I say, it's not clear.

 

[Arwin]

I think the idea with scooby's post is that this is the trend we're already seeing happen today, not something based on 'ifs'.

I already explained that many developers are better suited to support multiple platforms than ever before. But the 360 was first to market this time, which makes this point in time not comparable to the previous console race, where the PS2 was first to market and the Xbox came second.

Its clear this time around that a lot more titles will be multiplatform and there will be AAA exclusives on both platforms. The PS3 will probably still have an edge because of the long running franchises but i think its clear there will be plenty of good, top games for both systems and the library wont be near the differentiator it was last gen.

There were a lot of good games available on the XBox and the PS2 already last gen also. I don't think the library is all that matters in that respect, and it is equally hard to predict what will happen. People consider games like Halo and GTA really important, but these weren't huge franchises yet in the generation before that. You might as well infer that the biggest sellers in the next-generation will be completely new games we haven't heard of yet.

Next-gen will be interesting though, I am curious of MS can really leverage the PC space to effectively swing even more support their way in terms of software.

I don't know. PC Space isn't all that relevant. I rather think that so far, PC Games and Xbox games have been competing with each other more than helping each other out. It only takes a few years before the standard desktop does the same game better than the 360, I predict. Meanwhile, the PS3 will get more and more unique games thanks to its unique configuration. The position of the PS3 vs the 360 reminds me a lot of the Atari ST vs the Commodore Amiga days, and the Atari 800 vs Commodore 64 days before.

I don't know. I'm very much an all platform guy. I tend to buy everything that sufficiently interests me. Right now though, the PS3 is all I really care for. The 360 has been a huge let-down - I couldn't even be bothered to get one, which is unique. Maybe once the PS3 is actually out there I'll be hugely disappointed and change my mind, or not buy any consoles whatsoever and stick to the PSP, or spend all my free time coding the 3D Forum Browser .

Right now though, the PS3 has all the features I'm interested in, all the technology I care for, and I can't wait to see it all come together.

(But who knows it never will! I've been wrong before - once, buying a Falcon 030, which had a programmable DSP, way ahead of its time, but at that point in time the PC was just getting a great boost with the arrival of CD-ROMs, and I was still too lame a coder to support the DSP properly myself )

 

[DeathKnight]

but so far they haven't even "executed" anything...

I think that's the problem

 

[expletive]

I'm asking you to look at the trend in publishing in the east at the moment vs the west. With western publishers, chances are a game will be announced for PS3/360/PC/whatever (much the same way that most came to PS2/Xbox/whatever). In the east, not so much, still (though some, like capcom, were already very multiplatform..but the bulk of the japanese publishing community were pretty mono-platform). Not that we have a whole lot of insight into where japanese publishers are right now, but I figure we might after TGS. Like I say, it's not clear.

Do we even have a publishing trend in the east yet? From what i've seen there's been FAR more eastern games out/announced then for the xbox 360 at this point in its lifecycle and MS seems committed. Also, quite a few eastern developers see the console market as a global opportunity and not segregated by region. If we're going by a year to date comparison with the first xbox, then i'd have to say yes the 360 library is much stronger relative to the PS3 than the units were last gen.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Consider that there are something like 10 JRPG's already on their way, when XBOX did not have one in 4 years.

 

[expletive]

I already explained that many developers are better suited to support multiple platforms than ever before. But the 360 was first to market this time, which makes this point in time not comparable to the previous console race, where the PS2 was first to market and the Xbox came second.

Yep, which i think was key to MS' strategy this generation. I dont think its any accident that they launched first and are getting more software support because of the installed base and time to market advantage.

There were a lot of good games available on the XBox and the PS2 already last gen also. I don't think the library is all that matters in that respect, and it is equally hard to predict what will happen. People consider games like Halo and GTA really important, but these weren't huge franchises yet in the generation before that. You might as well infer that the biggest sellers in the next-generation will be completely new games we haven't heard of yet.

I agree. I think, if given the choice, Sony would prefer that past franchises to be an indicator of future software quality because i think they have an edge there. It very well could be wide open, and that's probably lucky for MS.

I don't know. PC Space isn't all that relevant. I rather think that so far, PC Games and Xbox games have been competing with each other more than helping each other out. It only takes a few years before the standard desktop does the same game better than the 360, I predict. Meanwhile, the PS3 will get more and more unique games thanks to its unique configuration.

Yeah they may end up cannibalizing each other somewhat but i think the idea for MS is to keep it off other platforms by providing a HUGE installed base with which to use their XNA dev environment on their unified platform.

Meanwhile, the PS3 will get more and more unique games thanks to its unique configuration

With its GPU being what it is, i get the impression that the PS3 is actually more PC-like than the 360. After that, seems like all hardware is driving towards multicore anyway...

 

[Titanio]

Do we even have a publishing trend in the east yet?

That's part of my point.

From what i've seen there's been FAR more eastern games out/announced then for the xbox at this point in its lifecycle and MS seems committed.

Looking at what's been released that doesn't actually hold true, or doesn't seem like it will (looking at third party, japanese releases, by the numbers). I'm using gamerankings here, so beware if there's errors therein, but it lists 9 third party japanese titles released to date on 360, while Xbox had 23 or 24 by the end of 2002. In order to catch up, we'll need to see 14 or 15 releases by the end of the year on 360.

But I don't know if an improvement over Xbox really would say much about the state of Japanese multiplatform-ism in absolute terms anyway..

 

[Crayon]

Explain to me your scenario where you envision publishers producing 5times as many games for PS3 as they do for 360, as I simply don't see that as being a possibility at all.

Related:
Do we really know why PS2 got so many more games? Was it purely the size of the userbase or did it have something to do with demographic?

Perfect illustration: Soul Calibur two. It had marketing and hype the likes of which I thought I would never see for a traditional (ahem, proper) fighting game. Namco went thru great lengths to balance out each platform, getting the game to run perfectly on each console, having unique features, synchronising launch and even having seperate print ads. Yet all said and done, the game merely did okay on XBox and Gamecube. Meanwhile on PS2 it did gangbusters. And it didn't seem to be merely userbase. It's just that the fighting fans all know that the go-to is Playstation. It just is. Then for Soul Calibur 3, Namco just made the quality game, skipped the marketing circus and just released for PS2 only, letting the fighting fans gobble it up without a bunch of hoopla.

What about poor, unfortunate Panzer Dragoon Orta for a flipside example? Fans have been clamoring for years. Sega picks up the torch and delivers with a hell of a game, and they ugh... release on XBox. Game sinks like a rock. We'll have no sequal for awhile. And MS doesn't even bother to update it for backwards compatibility. Outrun 2. Ditto. Shenmue 2 Ditto. The XBox demo just didn't care for them.

And it's obvious to me. I've only met two types of XBox owners, besides the clever hackjob media-streamer guys. There's the hyper-hardcore gamer who has a NeoGeo pocket Color import in the origional packagin. So he's got everything. This type of gamer seems to like their XBox very much. But they are few and far between. The vast majority of the XBox homes I've seen are very much into casual gamers who do pretty much Sport (primarily Madeen) and Halo. And marijuana. Not that there's anything wrong with that. They occasionally venture out of their comfort zone with something like Manhunt.

This can obviosuly change. And I can already see it starting to change with 360, for whatever reason. But alot of gamers know that if you are into fighting or rpg or hard shooters or puzzle or concept or import or strategy you are going to need a Playstation pretty much no two ways about it. Maybe it has to do with these genres being rooted in Japan. I know it's the main reason I'm going to pay more money for a PS3 over a 360. I know several gamers who are passing over the 360 for this reason, despite the fact that they are passing on PS3 because the price is too steep. They just know that the flavor of the 360 library isn't their thing. These are primarily what I would call pretty serious gamers. They understand games but they have jobs and pay bills so they aren't out just buying everything up.

I think I've made my point as well as I can without any solid numbers to back it up. There seems to be alot of assumption that when publishers look at where to sell games they look at just sell thru numbers. Seems like a shakey assumption when we know they harvest data like secondhand sales, attach rate, genre popularity, poplularity of female characters etc etc etc. Not saying it'll go one way or the other but the "equal usebase equals equal games" model is weak.