Kutaragi on delay and on sony

Sony hits stumbling blocks on road to recovery
Fri Sep 8, 2006 11:50 AM BST

By Nathan Layne

TOKYO (Reuters) - It seems to be one thing after another for Sony Corp. <6758.T> these days.

After a recall involving millions of Sony-made personal computer batteries and yet another delay for the PlayStation 3 game console, even one of Sony's top executives is questioning whether the company is on the right track.

"If you asked me if Sony's strength in hardware was in decline, right now I guess I would have to say that might be true," game unit head Ken Kutaragi said after Sony pushed back the PS3's European launch by four months to March.


The delay means Sony will miss the crucial Christmas shopping season in Europe, giving Microsoft Corp. <MSFT.O> and Nintendo Co. <7974.OS> a head start in the race to win over next-generation gamers in key markets like Germany and Spain.

But for investors, the bigger worry is what the setback says about Sony's reputation as a top-class manufacturer with the ability to deliver quality products to the market on time.

The news came within weeks of two major recalls by PC giants Dell Inc. <DELL.O> and Apple Computer <AAPL.O> of Sony lithium-ion batteries that can overheat and catch fire.

"All of this has raised concerns about whether there is something fundamentally wrong with Sony's manufacturing process," said Mitsushige Akino, chief fund manager at Ichiyoshi Investment Management. "And it could further damage the Sony brand."

The incidents will serve as a wake-up call for Ryoji Chubachi and Howard Stringer, who have experienced mostly success since becoming president and CEO of the world's second-largest consumer electronics maker in June 2005.

The duo inherited a bloated conglomerate that seemed to have lost the ability to churn out hit products. The Walkman had been replaced by Apple's iPod as king of portable audio, while Sharp Corp. <6753.T> had taken the lead in LCD TVs.

Sony now has a market value of $43 billion (23 billion pounds), less than half of rival Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.'s <005930.KS> $112 billion, which was smaller than the Japanese firm before 2002.

Stringer and Chubachi moved swiftly to slash jobs, sell off non-core assets and focus resources on key areas such as chips and flat screens.

FALLING BEHIND

The reforms appeared to be paying off.

Helped by strong demand for a new line-up of LCD TVs and a recovery in its PC business, Sony booked a 68 percent jump in operating profit for the past year ended March. Profit is expected to fall this year, however, due to heavy start-up costs for the PS3.

Sony pushed back the PS3's European launch because production of a component for the laser in the optical disc drive had fallen behind schedule. It was the second delay this year for Europe. North America and Japan are still set for a November launch.

Shinko Securities analyst Hideki Watanabe sees both the PS3 delay and the battery recall as manifestations of deeper problems rooted in poor management decisions taken during the 90's when Nobuyuki Idei was at the helm.

He says Sony was slower than rival Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. <6752.T> to recognise the rapid shift to digital from analogue technologies and was quicker to adapt. Matsushita worked harder at shortening lead times and cutting costs.

"In the digital era speed is everything," Watanabe said. "This is Idei's legacy. The new management knows what it has to do but there is such a big gap. Matsushita is running at full speed and it won't be easy for Sony to catch up."

Watanabe does not expect Sony to lose Dell and Apple as customers because the batteries are highly customised and it would be very difficult for the PC makers to make a switch.

He sees the PS3 production problems as a far more dangerous development because the game division has been a cash cow for Sony, helping keep the group afloat as it posted heavy losses on core electronics products.

"I see a major risk that Sony's presence in the game market will weaken," he said. "Investors will have to start considering the possibility in the future that the game division will not produce any real profits at all."

Sony's stock has lost 5 percent since Dell announced its recall in mid-August, lagging a small gain in the broader Tokyo market. Sony is up some 20 percent, though, since it was announced in March 2005 that Stringer would take the top job.

Certainly things have improved markedly since Sony stunned investors in April 2003 with an unforeseen quarterly loss of about $1 billion in what came to be known as the Sony Shock.

"Sony has no doubt passed through the worst stage," said Ichiyoshi's Akino.

"But investors can't let their guard down."

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/art...=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=NewsArt-C1-ArticlePage3
 
Its good article but I have no doubt in my mind that Sony will get back on track no problem. People seem to think PS3 will somehow fail and Sony goes bankrupt. Will it fail? Perhaps, most likely not. Will sony go bankrupt if it fails? HELL NO. Have a nice day people. :)
 
Its good article but I have no doubt in my mind that Sony will get back on track no problem. People seem to think PS3 will somehow fail and Sony goes bankrupt. Will it fail? Perhaps, most likely not. Will sony go bankrupt if it fails? HELL NO. Have a nice day people. :)


no, the importat thing to debate is not if sony fails or not
the important thing is what is saying Kutaragi, I really can't believe he says this words
 
no, the importat thing to debate is not if sony fails or not
the important thing is what is saying Kutaragi, I really can't believe he says this words

What is there to debate? All he is saying that Sony is going trough some problems which could damage theyr image as a company that offers high quality products. Is Sony in decline? Maybe. What does this have to do with PS3 though?
 
The delay means Sony will miss the crucial Christmas shopping season in Europe, giving Microsoft Corp. and Nintendo Co. a head start in the race to win over next-generation gamers in key markets like Germany and Spain.
Yeah, Spain is a definite key target. When you consider all the gaming tech, software, game genres, AAA developers and so forth to come out of Spain, it's obvious that without Spain, you've lost the console race.
 
Don't underestimate the importance of the PS3 to Sony. If it flops, it will really be a low blow. Sure, Sony won't die off, but it will put them in a bad spot for a few years. It may even turn them into an aquisiton target.
 
It's safe to say that PS3 won't "flop". It just has too many good games coming out for it to "flop". I expect it to have a fairly slow start, but no one can deny that the library of software for PS3 will help Sony coming out of this low point they seem to be in now.

If Sony can keep those titles exclusive, they will never flop.

If MS starts somehow to get their hands on some of the titles, Sony can start getting worried big time. They just need Final Fantasy and most other japanese developers will follow and the 360 will become the new Playstation. For some reason, the console with Final Fantasty has always been extremely successful. Once the consoles got Final Fantasy, the others start following, and it's pretty much game over for the competition.

Personally i don't really see it happening as SquareEnix seems rather patriotic and won't give up Final Fantasy to an American company like MS. But you never know. It would certainly make things more interesting!

All companies have high points and low ones. And it's even more sensational when the high point is as high as Sony has been with their Playstation brand in the last 11 years. It was just a matter of time till something happened, and this is the low point.
 
It's safe to say that PS3 won't "flop". It just has too many good games coming out for it to "flop". I expect it to have a fairly slow start, but no one can deny that the library of software for PS3 will help Sony coming out of this low point they seem to be in now.

If Sony can keep those titles exclusive, they will never flop.

If MS starts somehow to get their hands on some of the titles, Sony can start getting worried big time. They just need Final Fantasy and most other japanese developers will follow and the 360 will become the new Playstation. For some reason, the console with Final Fantasty has always been extremely successful. Once the consoles got Final Fantasy, the others start following, and it's pretty much game over for the competition.

Personally i don't really see it happening as SquareEnix seems rather patriotic and won't give up Final Fantasy to an American company like MS. But you never know. It would certainly make things more interesting!


Certainly true - It would be very unlikely that MS could get FF exclusive. However, if they can get a port in a resonable timeframe <6mo. or even better, a simultaneous release then it would also make things more interesting and SE wouldn't have to loose face by "giving away" their prized game to an American company. Isn't SE under some financial pressure after their FF movie? Anyway I'm sure with increasing dev costs this gen (especially for a game that pushes the envelope like FF) I wouldn't be surprised if SE were a bit nervous about having their game on just ps3 at this point and I imagine they were going to release a pc version anyway so it's a natural progression that they would also bring it to 360. Not saying it will happen but I wouldn't be surprised. Especially if MS introduces them to their bank account to ease the decision.
 
Certainly true - It would be very unlikely that MS could get FF exclusive. However, if they can get a port in a resonable timeframe <6mo. or even better, a simultaneous release then it would also make things more interesting and SE wouldn't have to loose face by "giving away" their prized game to an American company. Isn't SE under some financial pressure after their FF movie? Anyway I'm sure with increasing dev costs this gen (especially for a game that pushes the envelope like FF) I wouldn't be surprised if SE were a bit nervous about having their game on just ps3 at this point and I imagine they were going to release a pc version anyway so it's a natural progression that they would also bring it to 360. Not saying it will happen but I wouldn't be surprised. Especially if MS introduces them to their bank account to ease the decision.

Square have never been the guys to make Final Fantasy multiplatform across consoles. Sure they released some FFs on PC, but that's a different matter.

If Square decided to release FF on 360, it would be only on 360. And the implications of that would be absolutely huge, probably as big as when Sony and Square announced that Final Fantasy 7 would be exclusive to Playstation. That was pretty much the beginning of the end for Sega and Nintendo in that generation and even after that! It would also mean that Square would have to stop development of FF13 for PS3 (which started quite some time ago) and switch to 360.

They're all big decisions that only a hell of a lot of money and diplomacy from MS could push... And by "a lot" i mean A LOT. Billions. Not the millions MS paid for Rare (god knows why...). And so much ass licking that Square execs wouldn't be able to sit for weeks.

Just imagine the internet if that happened! It would explode. Literally.
 
It's safe to say that PS3 won't "flop". It just has too many good games coming out for it to "flop". I expect it to have a fairly slow start, but no one can deny that the library of software for PS3 will help Sony coming out of this low point they seem to be in now.

I think there's levels of 'flop' though. In its purest sense it would be something akin to the Saturn or Dreamcast. Surely the PS3 is not headed there but if it doesnt reach its intended goals which, imo, are:

1. Maintain (to some extent as it would be nigh impossible to duplicate the PS2's success) global market share of the playstation brand
2. Establish BR as the only HD optical movie format

then i can see some calling it somewhat of a flop, but really only relative to the high expectations put on it. What would you classify as a 'flop'? What do you think Sony would classify as a 'flop'?

On KK, its refreshing for someone from Sony to step up and say that they have some problems, and theyre working through them. I admire him for being a leader and doing it.
 
I think there's levels of 'flop' though. In its purest sense it would be something akin to the Saturn or Dreamcast. Surely the PS3 is not headed there but if it doesnt reach its intended goals which, imo, are:

1. Maintain (to some extent as it would be nigh impossible to duplicate the PS2's success) global market share of the playstation brand
2. Establish BR as the only HD optical movie format

then i can see some calling it somewhat of a flop, but really only relative to the high expectations put on it. What would you classify as a 'flop'? What do you think Sony would classify as a 'flop'?

On KK, its refreshing for someone from Sony to step up and say that they have some problems, and theyre working through them. I admire him for being a leader and doing it.

I agree. Personally i can't see PS3 selling as much as PS1 or PS2, for a number of reasons. If Sony can get to that level, then i really won't know what to say, and all i'll do (and lot of other people should too) is bow before them and admire a fantastic job, after all this mess that's been happening lately.

But i don't see it happening. PS3 will sell, and i'll buy one, regrettably, simply because i just HAVE to play some games, but to be honest i'm not even sure how long it will take Sony to actually manufacture enough PS3's to get close to the sames numbers for PS1 or 2...
 
no, the importat thing to debate is not if sony fails or not
the important thing is what is saying Kutaragi, I really can't believe he says this words

MasterDisaester, he is giving his stakeholders erm... "heads-up". It is actually a good thing (among all the bad news) that Ken is admitting Sony's non-performance. It also shows resolve.

At this point, I can imagine some Sony middle management sweating when they heard him. They probably know what/who he's refering to. :)
 
I agree. Personally i can't see PS3 selling as much as PS1 or PS2, for a number of reasons. If Sony can get to that level, then i really won't know what to say, and all i'll do (and lot of other people should too) is bow before them and admire a fantastic job, after all this mess that's been happening lately.

But i don't see it happening. PS3 will sell, and i'll buy one, regrettably, simply because i just HAVE to play some games, but to be honest i'm not even sure how long it will take Sony to actually manufacture enough PS3's to get close to the sames numbers for PS1 or 2...

1. What if BR wins and the ps3 sells 'only' 60 million?
2. What if BR loses (or theres a DVD-A/SACD stalemate, or digital dist takes hold) and the console sells 'only' 60 million?
3. What if BR loses (or theres a DVD-A/SACD stalemate, or digital dist takes hold) in 5 years) but the console sells 80 million?

imo
1. Even
2. flop
3. Even
 
Square have never been the guys to make Final Fantasy multiplatform across consoles.

Indeed they haven't been. Yet there on the shelf is FF XI for 360. Sure it was late but it is indeed the first time that SE has released multiplat on consoles.

Question is, will this be the first and only or will the trend continue?
 
FFXI was an MMO, so isn't comparable to other FF's. They have released the franchise across platforms before, and a MMO has to come on the PC to be viable. Thus if they're already doing FFXI on PS2 and PC, why not extend it to XB360 as well? That's very different to porting FFXII or FFXIII.
 
It's safe to say that PS3 won't "flop". It just has too many good games coming out for it to "flop". I expect it to have a fairly slow start, but no one can deny that the library of software for PS3 will help Sony coming out of this low point they seem to be in now.

If Sony can keep those titles exclusive, they will never flop.
Disagree. Keep in mind that no one has ever successfully launched a console at the price point Sony is targetting right now. The only ones I could think of are Jaguar and perhaps 3DO, the latter of which was definitely a flop, the former maybe not a flop, but never becoming mainstream. The flip side of that is, as you said, Sony's future software library, which is extremely strong.

No one doubts the first few million will sell out no problem. However, after that is where it gets interesting. If the price point remains high and the demand dries up, then Sony might be stuck with high manufacturing costs and too little demand to drive costs down long term. The console world has an odd business model and they need that "virtuous cycle" to keep prices going down and to spark new demand. As has been pointed out many, many times before, PS2 did the bulk out of its sales once it dropped below $200 (I think $150 was the magic number). If the PS3 is never able to reach that level, what happens? How many will they ever really be able to sell at $250 and above? Also keep in mind that the mandatory HDD will ensure that the price cannot drop as low as the PS2 unless they want to hemorrage billions of dollars (see also: Xbox 1) .

I'm not trying to come up with gloom and doom scenarios here. I'm just pointing out that it is possible. If Sony had gone the safe route with the PS3, then I agree, it's nearly an impossibility. But they're in new territory here. Of course, all of this comes down to how you define "flop" - would a 70 million install base be considered a flop? 50 million? 30 million? Obviously not in absolute terms, but perhaps in relation to expectations, you could call it that. However, one thing is for sure: whoever has the install base, you better believe that's where the publishers will go. Patriotism might get you so far, but fiduciary responsibility and shareholders will demand that the platform with the most potential sales gets the most games.
 
Indeed they haven't been. Yet there on the shelf is FF XI for 360. Sure it was late but it is indeed the first time that SE has released multiplat on consoles.

Question is, will this be the first and only or will the trend continue?

That's slightly different. FF11 wasn't a usual FF game and being a MMORPG, it needed as much space as possible across platforms with much better online gaming opportunities than PS2... Heck i don't think FF11 was even released in Europe for PS2!!

There was also a Final Fantasy game on Gamecube (Crystal Chronicles?). But that is also different as it was a completely different game than the usual crop.

The real Final Fantasy games, the ones we have all been accustomed to and are part of "the sequence", have always been on one console at a time (and PC sometimes). And these are the games that seem to be the deciders in each generation.
 
Don't underestimate the importance of the PS3 to Sony. If it flops, it will really be a low blow.

For example, it will probably also mean a flop for BluRay and Cell, as Sony relied on the millions of PS3s to lower their manufacturing costs and recoup R&D investments...
 
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