Kutaragi Ken interview on PSP

[Galian Beast]

The development on the GBA is ridiculous. The market is in no way moving up. The chief reason why the SP is selling so well is because even people who bought the original GBA are buying it. Software sales are still REALLY low (by far the worst tie in ratio of all the systems in the market today). The only reason why the GB line is alive today is because of Pokemon revived it in 1996. Saturation will be met sooner or later (the entire line has like .

There are two ways to get your games to sell on GBA.

1. Be Nintendo.
2. Buy the rights to use a license to a movie, tv show, comic e.t.c.

In both cases, quality is not important. All Nintendo does is port old snes games to the GBA, and bring out pokemon to increase sales. It cost money to do things on the GBA, and the risk of spending significant amount of money on GBA is way too high.

- Advertising. Publishers don't want to advertise for soley for GBA games, and then have them still sell badly. The most advertising you'll see is for multiplatform games that are on gba, nintendo games, or games with licensing, who can afford to advertise.

- Medium. It cost A LOT of money to use Carts. Not only are they expensive, but they take a long time to produce, and overestimating demand can be costly. Underestimating demand can result in a loss of demand. Using carts also limits the amount you can do with games.

- Game Quality. Making higher quality games doesn't directly generate higher sales especially without advertising. The current quality of GBA games is extremely poor (A lot of people don't think this way, but it is true. I know people wouldn't buy this games for $50 on consoles...) They get higher ratings, because the ratings compare one game with the other games it competes with. When the PSP comes out, I suspect that GBA games will start getting extremely low ratings, reflecting the difference between them.

- Target audience (I believe more than half of the people owning gba/c in north america at one point were under the age of 13). Not only do they not have expendable income, they don't have the same interest in games that older games do. Which makes it harder for publishers to properly take advantage of popular franchises.

- Limited design. The Gameboy advance's problems also lie in the fact that it only has 4 buttons. It's pretty difficult to make a great game with only 4 buttons now a days. This is the reason why console gamepads evolved into what we have today. The PlayStation 2 controller has 8-10 buttons (if you count L3 and R3 it is 10).

There are SO many problems with the GB line. And I am hoping that Sony can change it all with one swoop.

 

[Galian Beast]

And Memory Sticks are already manufactured by other companies than Sony. It still isn't enough competition. It is stupid to believe that Sony wants the price high, and they are keeping it high even though they want more market penetration.

The more competition = the more support = more production = lower prices = more consumption = more support = more competition = more production = lower prices = more consumption.

 

[notAFanB]

yes the GBSA market isn't exactly attractive for some older games at the moment however...

The current quality of GBA games is extremely poor (A lot of people don't think this way, but it is true. I know people wouldn't buy this games for $50 on consoles...)

don't you think the above statement is a little odd? the current crop is limited to arcade/snes ports and puzzlers, this works (not enough for me to buy one but) well for some reason.

 

[Galian Beast]

yes the GBSA market isn't exactly attractive for some older games at the moment however...

The current quality of GBA games is extremely poor (A lot of people don't think this way, but it is true. I know people wouldn't buy this games for $50 on consoles...)

don't you think the above statement is a little odd? the current crop is limited to arcade/snes ports and puzzlers, this works (not enough for me to buy one but) well for some reason.

I believe people are buying into the brand, rather than the games. There aren't really any system sellers, besides pokemon (which obviously isn't doing the job all by itself..., even if it seems that way). The system sells itself. Kids buy games that they can play with ease when they want to. The games don't need to be like Metal Gear Solid and Final Fantasy with a cinematic take on gaming or like Devil May Cry with wonderful gameplay. But this is also why sales are limited to about 3 games per console sold.

 

[notAFanB]

I believe people are buying into the brand, rather than the games.

I don't

The system sells itself. Kids buy games that they can play with ease when they want to. The games don't need to be like Metal Gear Solid and Final Fantasy with a cinematic take on gaming or like Devil May Cry with wonderful gameplay. But this is also why sales are limited to about 3 games per console sold.

I don't see how the above titles would 've been unnit shiftersfor a system such as the GBA, as you may have guess I am not a big fan of portable gaming sessions bordering on double digits.

 

[Galian Beast]

I believe people are buying into the brand, rather than the games.

I don't

The system sells itself. Kids buy games that they can play with ease when they want to. The games don't need to be like Metal Gear Solid and Final Fantasy with a cinematic take on gaming or like Devil May Cry with wonderful gameplay. But this is also why sales are limited to about 3 games per console sold.

I don't see how the above titles would 've been unnit shiftersfor a system such as the GBA, as you may have guess I am not a big fan of portable gaming sessions bordering on double digits.

Well take a look at the attachment ratio, and then explain why people are buying it...

I don't really understand what you are saying in your second paragraph, but what I am saying is that these games aren't produceable on the gba, but they are popular, and would sell, if available.

 

[notAFanB]

I don't really understand what you are saying in your second paragraph, but what I am saying is that these games are produceable on the gba, but they are popular, and would sell, if available.

short attention span that is all.

 

[wazoo]

As for memory stick dropping in price, the only reason they're expensive now is because Sony's pricing them like that. Now Samsung's getting into the market, and that will probably open up for more manufacturers as well. More competition, lower prices.


*G*

I was wondering how cheap they could be by PSP launch considering it will be the writeable part of the PSP (at least I understood that). Going from 128MB to 512MB at 50$ is it possible ??

 

[cthellis42]

cthellis42:
> While they thought there would be no way to copy CD-to-CD, meaning
> forced incentive.

With the prevalence of MC I sincerely doubt digital to digital copying was much of a concern.

Considering how many times and methods they attempted to add protection (or "loss") to digital music, one would think THEY were thinking of it quite a lot. Tapes at least would burn out from generation to generaion and strain from use. Unrestricted copying/playing of digitally pure music...? Yes, I think they kinda shivered at that.

> If a format COULD be controlled in it's own format...?

I think that ultimately you're overstating the significance of security. Keep in mind that CDs and DVDs weren't initially recordable. The industry made them so. There is no reason why an open format can't be read only. The interest just isn't there.

No, I'm just saying we don't know exactly what the industry might do if they DID have that available. The industry made CDs and DVDs recordable for a variety of reasons--one being no cheap recordable media existed out there, and they stood to push in quite easily, selling a ton of hardware and blank media in the process. Since CD and DVD were also more open standards, there would be less one company could do to stand in that way anyway. I'm sure the RIAA and MPAA were distinctly UNamused.

But UMD is not needed as a recordable media--it doesn't fill any gaps. The cheaper and more common CD is everywhere, and DVDs have greater capacity, so there is not unrelenting pressure in that--just public expectation. Of course no public expectations stood in the way of CDs and DVDs being adopted in the first place... (Though in the case of DVD's likely a number figured "it will come along someday.")

I am not overestimating the case for the protection so much as saying we don't KNOW enough to make sure statements--as you do with every breath. How secure are UMD's? We don't know. How many protections is Sony assuring in the future? We don't know. How secure are the big publishers right now with their current course? We don't know.

The whole thing so far has been you stating unequivocably "no" while I've been stating "we don't know." I'm a lot more comfortable with my position.

> Is that why people continually moved from LP to 8-track to cassette to CD

That is a flawed analogy. People will switch to another format when they believe it to be benificial. That is, when it offers something the previous format didn't - e.g. recordability, smaller size, better quality. When they make the switch they usually don't look back however.

Not so much as you'd like to think. You claim universally that people don't "double up" while I say they "change." 8-tracks didn't offer recordability nor much higher quality, they were just smaller. They were quickly killed off by cassettes which were even smaller and DID offer recordability. CD's offered higher quality, but took away other features. The public doesn't always gain universal benefits, but they DO embrace new technology, and they typically acquire much of their old library in new form. Are they forced to do that? Considering all their old players are still around, certainly not.

The public likes interesting new things, and the public also makes MANY concessions for convenience.

Now obviously UMD has a size advantage but it won't be able to match the quality of a DVD, it won't get the same mass acceptance as DVD, it won't be recordable like MD or DVD. Basically, all it has going for it is size and only compared to DVD. Most people don't have interest in, nor time for, movie watching on the go.

Still buying portable DVD players though, aren't they? It won't start out huge, but if they can get it in cheaper and more convenient devices it may appeal to them more. If there are output ports you can take them on vacation or business trips and hook them up to TVs/stereos at hotels or whatever your destination for easy personal entertainment, keeping the kids occupied... Portable does not mean only "on the go." It means transportable--convenient.

> Is that why Mini-Disk players and MP3 players are only growing in popularity?

Do you buy many prerecorded MDs and MP3s?

I notice you dutifully didn't quote the line where I mentioned all the services cropping up now where people are buying those very MP3's? Heck, they're even accepting limited use clauses on them and other things that make them worse than "freely acquired MP3's" I don't, and it sounds like you don't, but you know what we are? A damn poor sampling of "the public."

Still willing to pay for things in many forms that they may already have, even when taking concessions last I checked.

> My Father lived threw a time when his father couldn't understand why
> he bought more than one telephone or more than one TV or more than
> one car.

More flawed analogies. You can't compare owning a copy of a movie specifically with the purpose of watching it on the go to owning multiple cars for practical uses (e.g. getting various family members to and from work), having several phones so you won't miss a call when in a different part of your home, out of your home or for private and work related use, or having multiple TVs for conveniency's sake so there will be no more arguments over what to watch. Again, there is a difference between content and hardware in the mind of the consumer. People don't mind buying all sorts of machines and gizmos but they don't get a sense of value from a little disc. Just look at people attitude towards piracy, it's quite accepted amongst the general population. But the same people would never think of stealing a TV, Walkman and so forth.

No, again it's people doubling up. They buy a new stereo piece that when it comes out and they want it enough, and they'll also buy a portable one, one for their car, maybe a new portable one later on which has more skip protection (or can read new formats)...

If people put different devices in different locations for convenience's sake, do they always love being hampered by the media? Much of the popularity of MP3 players is that they CAN carry a library around with them despite taking a quality hit.

What tends to be the prohibitive factor? Cost. Both in initial hardware and in the media. They're treated differently, of course, but they the public is not so abhorrent to duplicating media in all forms. They show perfect willingness to take quality hits and make concessions on one hand, yet they show perfect willingness to update entire libraries from one form to another despite the huge additional costs in repurchasing the media they already have. Couldn't they just play what they have on equipment they already own absolutely free?

People double up on hardware AND media frequently enough, so using that as the sole determining factor of success is foolish--there is much more involved. And since the industry is continually shifting and reforming and at this point experimenting with new models and delivery methods, we cannot preclude that something like UMD would fail to appeal in all forms. We don't KNOW enough to, uh... know. Hehe...

 

[MfA]

It can be successfull without being the next walkman ... if I were trying to compete with Sony's PSP I would go for a machine which used a proprietary variation on mini-DVDs for custom content (protected through crypto/media-ID/etc) which also supported playback of A/V from regular mini-DVDs.

Because that really has the potential of being the next walkman you couldnt price it at a big loss though ... I wonder what the total bill of cost would be for mini-DVD based portable with a SH5, a 100-200 MP/s MBX and the same kind of screen as the PSP.

 

[cybamerc]

Galian Beast:

> Unlike the GBA, the PSP won't be a stagnating member of the market.

The GBA is the only platform that is experiencing growing sales.

> Sony doesn't need to profit on hardware right away, and not to the
> extent that Nintendo does.

If Sony wishes to make money then yes it will.

> Just as Sony didn't make a profit right away with the PlayStation 2

The difference being that consoles have traditionally had higher tie ratios than handhelds and there is a bigger market for 3. party software on consoles.

> The PS3's graphics are going to own the PSP

But ultimately it will be the same type of games. There will be no good reason to put a game on PSP other than to please Sony.

> I heard someone's calculation that the screen size would be 3.9' by
> 2.2', that's hardly large at all.

It's considerably wider than a portable MD player which is again quite a bit larger than modern MP3 players. With the casing we're probably looking at approx. 4.3 inches wide for a flip-top design. But then you'd probably have all those manly Sony gamers complain about it being too small for their big hands like they did with the GBA SP. Hah... who am I kidding. As long as it has the Sony logo on it it will be the best thing evar!!1

> The market is in no way moving up.

Actually it is. GBA is the only overperforming platform out right now.

> Saturation will be met sooner or later

Sort of like what PS2 is showing signs of you mean?

> All Nintendo does is port old snes games to the GBA

That is a blatant lie.

> A lot of people don't think this way, but it is true.

So because you are blinded by your love for all things Sony noone else is allowed to enjoy true gaming?

> It's pretty difficult to make a great game with only 4 buttons now a days.



The amount of buttons doesn't make the game. If anything the increased complexity has taken away from the purity of the gaming experience.




cthellis42:

> Considering how many times and methods they attempted to add
> protection

Those are recent developments.

> UMD ... doesn't fill any gaps.

Exactly.

> Still buying portable DVD players though, aren't they?

It's a very limited market.

> all the services cropping up now where people are buying those very MP3's

Do you think those people also buy the CD?

 

[Galian Beast]

It can be successfull without being the next walkman ... if I were trying to compete with Sony's PSP I would go for a machine which used a proprietary variation on mini-DVDs for custom content (protected through crypto/media-ID/etc) which also supported playback of A/V from regular mini-DVDs.

Because that really has the potential of being the next walkman you couldnt price it at a big loss though ... I wonder what the total bill of cost would be for mini-DVD based portable with a SH5, a 100-200 MP/s MBX and the same kind of screen as the PSP.

Your machine would then be more expensive, and larger than the PSP. The support for it would also be almost as lacking from the get go.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cybamerc, as I said, the reason why the GBA SP is increasing in sales (if it even is compared to it's launch) it is because people who bought the original GBA are in large numbers, buying the GBA SP.

Sony is making money right now on the PlayStation 2, they didn't start with profit. Infact I heard people at Sony Corp were really getting on SCE's case about the PlayStation 2 at first, but Kutaragi knows what he is doing. Take a hit on hardware at first, increasing your userbase and software sales. Then as production costs reduce you make a profit on hardware.

The handheld market was never really aimed at adults, and the console business was always larger. And when the console business bloomed, the handheld business did not. Sony is going to be targeting older games who are in their teens, 20s, and 30s. These people will be buyer more than three games per system.

LOL. That is like saying there is no market for portable cd players, because home stations are available...

Sony has no problem making things as small as possible. And at the same time I am sure theyll make it comfortable. It is more about shape than size.

LOL. PlayStation 2 software sales continue to own the GBA. The GBA is cheaper and has a larger quantity demand than the PS2. When the PS2 comes down to prices like 150 dollars, and 100 dollars, you will see sales that the GBA won't be experiencing, even when it becomes cheaper. Especially with the PSP coming out.

Again, there are no signs of saturation of a machine that has completely outsold the PSOne (shipped 97.24 million...) year by year even at a much higher price. The PlayStation 2 sales are slowing down because the machine has been out for more than 3 years, and it is still very expensive.

Take a look at the best selling games nintendo has released on the GBA. Either a port or a rehash.

LOL. The only one blind here is you... especially if you can't see the fact that GBA is Nintendo's little port machine.

LOL... I look at Madden now, and Madden on the snes/genesis... I see madden being FAR more popular now. Both the developers and the consumers want more advanced games. Hell I just read an article about kids wanting more advanced games, but they aren't getting them. Try making a game like Devil May Cry on the NES. I am not even talking about graphics, sound ,e.t.c. Just the gamepad. It would be impossible.

The portable DVD market is limited because the things cost hundreds of dollars... I want a portable dvd player. There you have it... DEMAND... Will I pay 500-1500 for one... nope.... Quantity demand... 0....

The music industry STILL needs something to replace CDs. They are caught between DVD-Audio and SACD. The UMD could definitely replace CDs if given enough support. Although it has less capacity, it has a much better transfer speed, but both DVD-Audio and SACD are very expensive.

 

[cybamerc]

Galian Beast:

> as I said, the reason why the GBA SP is increasing in sales

So now sales are increasing? Before you said they were stagnating. Which is it?

> Sony is making money right now on the PlayStation 2

Are they making enough to offset the initial loss without factoring in software sales though?

> These people will be buyer more than three games per system.

These people aren't interested in gaming on the go.

> Sony has no problem making things as small as possible.

Yes, as possible. The screen size sets a lower limit. Look, we've been over this already. Go back to GA or start paying attention.

> PlayStation 2 software sales continue to own the GBA.

I realize that to you gaming probably started with PlayStation but before PlayStation there were other systems by other companies. In fact, Nintendo, the maker of the GBA, was once the dominant player in the business. Even when Nintendo ruled with NES and SNES/Super Famicom, as those systems were called, console tie ratios exceeded those of handhelds. The reason for this is that people look to handhelds for experiences they can't get on the home console. The PSP will be a PS1 port machine with the odd high profile exclusive put there to please Sony. But in the end the software will just be less sophisticated versions of what you will find on PS2/PS3.

If you think PSP will achieve a tie ratio comparable to consoles you are kidding yourself.

> Take a look at the best selling games nintendo has released on the
> GBA. Either a port or a rehash.

Well, I'm sure to you anything that builds on a previously established franchise constitutes a rehash (except when it's on PlayStation of course).

That aside, your original argument wasn't about top sellers but rather Nintendo's entire GBA library which mainly consists of original titles contrary to your claims.

 

[Galian Beast]

If you head read carefully you would have seen that I NEVER said that the hardware sales were stagnating. Rather the machine was stagnating the industry.

They broke even after the first year of sales.

They aren't interested on gaming on the go? Where is your proof to that? Looks a little bit more like they don't like the crappy games that are on the go... Gaming on the go will have a completely different meaning, with completely different games.

LOL. Exactly we HAVE been over this. The screen size isn't that large at all. The dimensions of the original GB (not the screen) are much larger. Being flip top basically solves all problems when it comes to size.

My first system was the Nintendo Entertainment System, fanboy. Learn how to read. I said consoles have always dominated handheld sales.

"The handheld market was never really aimed at adults, and the console business was always larger. And when the console business bloomed, the handheld business did not. Sony is going to be targeting older games who are in their teens, 20s, and 30s. These people will be buyer more than three games per system. "

Your a fanboy simple as that. I guess you are scared that an actual competitor is going to bring out a system, that will bring actual games to handheld gaming... Weird...

A rehash is a game that takes the exact same elements from another game, and reuses them as the complete basis.

 

[Vince]

Flawed analogies, huh? Try reading my post - there wasn't a single thing you talked of that I already didn't cover. Including how DRM will affect your only attempt at a structured line of reasoning.

The fundimental thing here is that you talk in absolutes (like how peopke will never buy it) without any basis. Show some function or predence rooted in an underlying dynamic that will prove that people won't buy multiple copies of a given product for convienence - because I have (look to historic per capita adoption of new products: TV's, Phones, Cars, etc) and quite frankly, you're wrong.

You remind me of a dinsosaur of the past who can't see more than what's 5 feet in front of him. I've just seen a local poll (in Chicago) where ~30% of the community has stated they stopped downloading music since the RIAA's recent purging. And just wait untill DRM goes mainstream with backing from the Microsoft's, Intel's and Consumer Electronics Co. I told you, the paradigm is changing and it'll follow the precedence in the vast mainstream.

 

[PC-Engine]

UMD = MD + BETA

 

[MfA]

Your machine would then be more expensive, and larger than the PSP.

You could cut cost on the CPU and graphics if need be, the medium is a big competetive advantage. As for larger ... 2 extra cms would unlikely be a make or break issue.

The support for it would also be almost as lacking from the get go.

That all depends on who does it, if m$ does it that is unlikely to be a problem (or alternatively nintendo or sega).

 

[Galian Beast]

UMD = MD + BETA

Sure it is... based on... your fanboyism perhaps...?

Your machine would then be more expensive, and larger than the PSP.

You could cut cost on the CPU and graphics if need be, the medium is a big competetive advantage. As for larger ... 2 extra cms would unlikely be a make or break issue.

The support for it would also be almost as lacking from the get go.

That all depends on who does it, if m$ does it that is unlikely to be a problem (or alternatively nintendo or sega).

Isn't 2cm is nearly an inch in all directions?

How would you cut costs of the cpu and graphics chip? Does your company produce these things in-house? I don't know any company that could produce a video game system at the same level for cheaper than sony can in-house. You definitely wouldn't be able to take the same type of hit sony can. Your system would also be plagued by piracy.

Microsoft, Sega, and Nintendo are all pitfalls for 3rd party support. If sega ever opted to make another system NO ONE would support it. Microsoft will get less support next generation than it did this generation... and Nintendo is almost as big a joke as Sega. I'll be surprised if ANY big support comes for Nintendo. It's a joke in Japan, and 3rd party support in the west is already dropping like flies.

The only companies I could ever see getting into the gaming business after Microsoft failed are:

Matsushita, Intel, IBM, Apple (they enjoy being the underdog don't they?).

There companies either lack R&D experience (to develop a highly competitive game system), capital, or support from the industry.

 

[PC-Engine]

Sure it is... based on... your fanboyism perhaps...?

Common sense...UMD is inferior to DVD in addition to the fact that NOBODY has any movies on UMD or UMD players

If it was superior with heavy support from industry leaders it might have a slight chance at dethroning DVD and/or CD

Sorry to break it to you, but looks like you are the only one who's gonna wait in line at Tower to go by a UMD version of a movie already available on DVD to watch on the go and nowhere else

Oh and looks like you are the only one who's gonna go buy prerecorded music on UMD too while the rest of the world uses CD, CDR, CDRW

BTW do you buy prerecorded MDs???

You can try to rationalize it all you want, but it's futile and no subsitute for common sense. The percentage of geeks that will buy geek gadgets is appoximately 1%

 

[jvd]

The development on the GBA is ridiculous. The market is in no way moving up. The chief reason why the SP is selling so well is because even people who bought the original GBA are buying it. Software sales are still REALLY low (by far the worst tie in ratio of all the systems in the market today). The only reason why the GB line is alive today is because of Pokemon revived it in 1996. Saturation will be met sooner or later (the entire line has like .

There are two ways to get your games to sell on GBA.

1. Be Nintendo.
2. Buy the rights to use a license to a movie, tv show, comic e.t.c.

In both cases, quality is not important. All Nintendo does is port old snes games to the GBA, and bring out pokemon to increase sales. It cost money to do things on the GBA, and the risk of spending significant amount of money on GBA is way too high.

- Advertising. Publishers don't want to advertise for soley for GBA games, and then have them still sell badly. The most advertising you'll see is for multiplatform games that are on gba, nintendo games, or games with licensing, who can afford to advertise.

- Medium. It cost A LOT of money to use Carts. Not only are they expensive, but they take a long time to produce, and overestimating demand can be costly. Underestimating demand can result in a loss of demand. Using carts also limits the amount you can do with games.

- Game Quality. Making higher quality games doesn't directly generate higher sales especially without advertising. The current quality of GBA games is extremely poor (A lot of people don't think this way, but it is true. I know people wouldn't buy this games for $50 on consoles...) They get higher ratings, because the ratings compare one game with the other games it competes with. When the PSP comes out, I suspect that GBA games will start getting extremely low ratings, reflecting the difference between them.

- Target audience (I believe more than half of the people owning gba/c in north america at one point were under the age of 13). Not only do they not have expendable income, they don't have the same interest in games that older games do. Which makes it harder for publishers to properly take advantage of popular franchises.

- Limited design. The Gameboy advance's problems also lie in the fact that it only has 4 buttons. It's pretty difficult to make a great game with only 4 buttons now a days. This is the reason why console gamepads evolved into what we have today. The PlayStation 2 controller has 8-10 buttons (if you count L3 and R3 it is 10).

There are SO many problems with the GB line. And I am hoping that Sony can change it all with one swoop.

Hmm you know most of the things you don't like nintendo for sony is doing in the console market. Btw the playstation 2 controller is just a modded superness controller. Its just as bad as the xbox controller. More buttons don't mean jack. If they did we'd all be playing on a jaguar which had what 30 some odd buttons or so.