Kutaragi Ken interview on PSP
- Thread starter DeadmeatGA
- Start date
Panajev2001a
Veteran
What a comeback cybamerc... you convinced me, your argument is just THAT strong... I just cannot fight against it
You discovered that I secretly admire Deadmeat and I emulate him in every possible way and inside me I always agree with him... WHOOOO tooolld YOUUU????
Panajev2001a
Veteran
Well I am glad you gaught my master-plan... oh boy
I at least provided some reasons why I agreed, you came up with a short one liner dismissing.
I say that there is a certain niche that the UMD could carve for itself aside from being a simple games medium and I have, several times, outlined why I believed that.
You, on the other side, are getting quite a noise level in this threads rolling your eyes to anyone who does like Sony products: ever thought those people might have some realistic reasons for it ?
I at least provided some reasons why I agreed, you came up with a short one liner dismissing.
I say that there is a certain niche that the UMD could carve for itself aside from being a simple games medium and I have, several times, outlined why I believed that.
You, on the other side, are getting quite a noise level in this threads rolling your eyes to anyone who does like Sony products: ever thought those people might have some realistic reasons for it ?
Panajev2001a:
> ever thought those people might have some realistic reasons for it ?
If you have some valid reasoning for your beliefs I'd suggest you share it with us instead of refering to the lack of writability (incidentally I remember you being terribly excited about the prospects of UMD back when you still believed it would be recordable). Piss poor copy protection hasn't exactly stood in the way of VHS, CD, DVD, PlayStation etc. Quite the opposite some would say.
Again, noone's gonna buy music and movies on UMD and support for a proprietary format will be slim at best. History backs me up on this one.
> ever thought those people might have some realistic reasons for it ?
If you have some valid reasoning for your beliefs I'd suggest you share it with us instead of refering to the lack of writability (incidentally I remember you being terribly excited about the prospects of UMD back when you still believed it would be recordable). Piss poor copy protection hasn't exactly stood in the way of VHS, CD, DVD, PlayStation etc. Quite the opposite some would say.
Again, noone's gonna buy music and movies on UMD and support for a proprietary format will be slim at best. History backs me up on this one.
Panajev2001a
Veteran
Let's separate SCE from other Sony subdivision ok ?
Samsung does a lot in house: Sony could do a lot in house but they ahve managed in the past to spend $8 Billions worth of ICs bought from third party vendors, every subdivision seemed to do its own Semiconductor research and there was nto enough collaboration.
Also, since SCE seemed to make SO much money, the management of Sony Consumer electronics and other subdivisions were kinda throwing a little bit too much money down the toilet in wasteful projects and enrich competitors by buying ICs from them when there was capacity to do things in house more efficiently.
The attitude at Sony corp. has not been organized, watchful ( SCE does a lot of advance-planning and is still able to adjust them on the run to correct the assumptions made if there is the need and they did show it ) and efficient as SCE, but instead it seemed to be something like: 'Oh, do not worry about not making much profit, SCE will keep printing money".
Then when SCE needs to make a stong R&D investment to keep up with the CELL development as planned you see a 98% nosedive in the operating profits for that quarter.
Samsung does a lot in house: Sony could do a lot in house but they ahve managed in the past to spend $8 Billions worth of ICs bought from third party vendors, every subdivision seemed to do its own Semiconductor research and there was nto enough collaboration.
Also, since SCE seemed to make SO much money, the management of Sony Consumer electronics and other subdivisions were kinda throwing a little bit too much money down the toilet in wasteful projects and enrich competitors by buying ICs from them when there was capacity to do things in house more efficiently.
The attitude at Sony corp. has not been organized, watchful ( SCE does a lot of advance-planning and is still able to adjust them on the run to correct the assumptions made if there is the need and they did show it ) and efficient as SCE, but instead it seemed to be something like: 'Oh, do not worry about not making much profit, SCE will keep printing money".
Then when SCE needs to make a stong R&D investment to keep up with the CELL development as planned you see a 98% nosedive in the operating profits for that quarter.
cybamerc said:
I think that's his point. We don't know quite how the big publishers will receive this, but they COULD want to give a solid try simply because of the proprietary format. With Sony holding all the rights, they CAN prohibit devices from being able to read them or burnable media from being made, no? (Possibly also commercial software being able to read them?) This doesn't stop EVERY form of hacking by any stretch of the imagination, of course, but it removes the ease from the average consumer.
It depends entirely what the market is like at that point, and we have another year yet of DVD burners getting more popular, writeable DVDs getting cheaper, and big music publisher price restructurings. Considering what these guys have been known to stand in the way of in the past, and what those like the RIAA are doing now, it's hard to know just what they WILL want to do anymore. (And even if Sony just gives a reasonable push with its own music/movie arm, others might fall in line of they're accepted well enough.)
We've all said that we expect UMD to be its own niche, but many of us also simply say it COULD be picked up more than we think because of big publisher insecurities and the additional protections that are in place and can be enforced over the other media types.
History also notes that the reason the music industry picked up CD's as quickly and as strongly as they did was because they DID think it to be a strong, uncopyable format, not to mention able to offer the most quality. UMD offers that same allure again, and this time they may have more protection assured. <shrugs> RIAA is looking every which way shiftily right now. Hard to know what they want.
Movies, meanwhile, just want to go anywhere they can make money.
And since the consumer is doing the "buying" most don't care about "proprietary format" anyway. They are about the price point of the media. (And of the devices one would have to get to play them on.) Since it looks like the PSP will be the only thing available to begin with, adoption will be slow and primarily come from the gaming market, but depending on how well it does and how much Sony is willing to push from its own archives, it could get interesting.
But basically, it all depends how Sony is going to run the format. They could start off making it unappealing to businesses or consumers or both, but they also might hit a particular appeal that will have everyone perking their ears up.
<shrugs> Impossible to tell at this point.
cthellis42:
> they COULD want to give a solid try simply because of the proprietary
> format.
Yes, and the sky COULD fall down tomorrow. Anything is possible but not everything is likely.
> History also notes that the reason the music industry picked up CD's as
> quickly and as strongly as they did was because they DID think it to be
> a strong, uncopyable format
I think you'll find it had more to do with the need for a higher quality format and the cheaper costs. The arrival of the CD didn't lead to an instant dumping of MC and LP nor did it prevent illegal copying.
> And since the consumer is doing the "buying" most don't care
> about "proprietary format" anyway.
But they care about support (public and commercial). Noone's gonna pick UMD over DVD.
> they COULD want to give a solid try simply because of the proprietary
> format.
Yes, and the sky COULD fall down tomorrow. Anything is possible but not everything is likely.
> History also notes that the reason the music industry picked up CD's as
> quickly and as strongly as they did was because they DID think it to be
> a strong, uncopyable format
I think you'll find it had more to do with the need for a higher quality format and the cheaper costs. The arrival of the CD didn't lead to an instant dumping of MC and LP nor did it prevent illegal copying.
> And since the consumer is doing the "buying" most don't care
> about "proprietary format" anyway.
But they care about support (public and commercial). Noone's gonna pick UMD over DVD.
Currently portable DVD players cost a lot more than the PSP will end up costing (or else they price the PSP too rediculously high and screw themselves that way) and ONLY plays movies and music. You seriously think the public would object to overlapping on some titles for a cheaper, much more multi-functional device that they may well be getting for entirely different reasons ANYway? The key is being cheap enough. Even if ALL you want to do is watch a few portable movies, do you buy $400-500 machine (likely cost at that point--they're still more right now) with a somewhat larger screen, or the $150-200 machine which is more versatile, but will make you have to pick up some of your favorites again? Price point and selection will be the determining factors, and NO ONE is saying it will knock anything else off the shelves.
<laughs> As if "cheaper costs" ever got rolled back to the consumer anyway. And do we know the relative cost of UMD compared to CD? Of course roll-outs and early adoption would be higher, but overall costs later on? <shrugs> It could be that UMD offers all those same benefits again.
And no, the arrival of CD didn't prevent illegal copying, but it DID mean that all people could copy to for years was tape--losing a ton of quality. It wasn't until CD burners became commonplace and MP3 use widespread that the RIAA started to notice real hits. And if the format DOES amount to "no commercial burners and no burnable media"...? <shrugs> It might have stronger appeal to them than we think. It won't stop the process entirely, as there will be methods to crack the format and copy the music to other sources (right back to CD), but it could throw a spanner in the works and give them more options.
Meanwhile, of course, hardware companies LOVE the opportunity to sell you more hardware, and publishers LOVE the idea of selling you multiple copies of the same thing, so who knows?
<laughs> As if "cheaper costs" ever got rolled back to the consumer anyway. And do we know the relative cost of UMD compared to CD? Of course roll-outs and early adoption would be higher, but overall costs later on? <shrugs> It could be that UMD offers all those same benefits again.
And no, the arrival of CD didn't prevent illegal copying, but it DID mean that all people could copy to for years was tape--losing a ton of quality. It wasn't until CD burners became commonplace and MP3 use widespread that the RIAA started to notice real hits. And if the format DOES amount to "no commercial burners and no burnable media"...? <shrugs> It might have stronger appeal to them than we think. It won't stop the process entirely, as there will be methods to crack the format and copy the music to other sources (right back to CD), but it could throw a spanner in the works and give them more options.
Meanwhile, of course, hardware companies LOVE the opportunity to sell you more hardware, and publishers LOVE the idea of selling you multiple copies of the same thing, so who knows?
cthellis42:
> You seriously think the public would object to overlapping on some
> titles
Yes.
> As if "cheaper costs" ever got rolled back to the consumer anyway.
What's your point? You think companies won't introduce a new product unless it offers benifits to consumers?
> And do we know the relative cost of UMD compared to CD?
No. But I doubt it's less than a CD.
> but it DID mean that all people could copy to for years was tape--losing
> a ton of quality.
It was better than copying from tape to tape.
> It might have stronger appeal to them than we think.
For it to be appealing there has to be consumer support which there won't be.
> Meanwhile, of course, hardware companies LOVE the opportunity to sell
> you more hardware, and publishers LOVE the idea of selling you
> multiple copies of the same thing, so who knows?
The hardware will sell but the content won't. People love gadgets but they don't love buying the same thing twice.
> You seriously think the public would object to overlapping on some
> titles
Yes.
> As if "cheaper costs" ever got rolled back to the consumer anyway.
What's your point? You think companies won't introduce a new product unless it offers benifits to consumers?
> And do we know the relative cost of UMD compared to CD?
No. But I doubt it's less than a CD.
> but it DID mean that all people could copy to for years was tape--losing
> a ton of quality.
It was better than copying from tape to tape.
> It might have stronger appeal to them than we think.
For it to be appealing there has to be consumer support which there won't be.
> Meanwhile, of course, hardware companies LOVE the opportunity to sell
> you more hardware, and publishers LOVE the idea of selling you
> multiple copies of the same thing, so who knows?
The hardware will sell but the content won't. People love gadgets but they don't love buying the same thing twice.
cybamerc said:
My point is that big publishers have their own concerns, and that one devoted to keeping their prices artificially inflated for decades (while costs lowered), doing everything they possibly can to reduce the impact of P2P services, and going so far as to sue their customers could well be looking for just about anything they can use to their advantage these days.
As I said in the beginning I would doubt it too, but in the long run it is a physically smaller medium would would take down packaging costs as well. It certainly offers other options, and could well be a lower-cost model in the future.
While they thought there would be no way to copy CD-to-CD, meaning forced incentive. And CD copying took YEARS to come about with all companies encouraging it. If a format COULD be controlled in it's own format...?
And my point is that we don't know that at all. It depends ENTIRELY on the business model surrounding them.
Is that why people continually moved from LP to 8-track to cassette to CD, likely buying the same things in many formats? Is that why Mini-Disk players and MP3 players are only growing in popularity? Is that why online download services started off strong and are continuing to make money while people can find the same things for free?
Create the market, and some find their way in. If it's attractive enough it gets even more popular. There are ALWAYS possibilities and ALWAYS attractions to the public, to business... The key is developing a business model that is attractive to both, or else all you remain is a curiosity.
cybamerc,
While I'm going to stick to my current trend of not replying to you untill you start using quotes (which we have the common courtesy of using for you), I just want to make a single comment based on a fast conversation that happened yersterday which relates to this:
My grandfather lived threw a time when his father couldn't understand why he bought a ModelT when they already had horses. My Father lived threw a time when his father couldn't understand why he bought more than one telephone or more than one TV or more than one car.
I'm going to live threw a time when convienence once again takes precedence over cost and redundency. Altready the household with only one PC is dissolving - and that'll be only the fist to go. But, a more fundimental change will occur IMHO and already is in a stage akin to a primordeal soup.
What will happen is people will stop looking as software as a formless, costless, and amorphous entity. It will become a form of IP that's just as valid as a singular piece of tactile hardware, or a work of art, or thought of brilliance. This is already starting to form out of the current anarchy that exists and will only continue with the rise of DRM.
And once this happens, these steps are taken, then human nature takes over and the perception of 'software' will die under the aegis of IP, making it just as reasonable to buy multiple copies of the latest Ricky Martin album for convienence and acoustic torture as it is to have the 7 phones, 5 TVs, 2 computers, and 3 cars many people have.
While I'm going to stick to my current trend of not replying to you untill you start using quotes (which we have the common courtesy of using for you), I just want to make a single comment based on a fast conversation that happened yersterday which relates to this:
My grandfather lived threw a time when his father couldn't understand why he bought a ModelT when they already had horses. My Father lived threw a time when his father couldn't understand why he bought more than one telephone or more than one TV or more than one car.
I'm going to live threw a time when convienence once again takes precedence over cost and redundency. Altready the household with only one PC is dissolving - and that'll be only the fist to go. But, a more fundimental change will occur IMHO and already is in a stage akin to a primordeal soup.
What will happen is people will stop looking as software as a formless, costless, and amorphous entity. It will become a form of IP that's just as valid as a singular piece of tactile hardware, or a work of art, or thought of brilliance. This is already starting to form out of the current anarchy that exists and will only continue with the rise of DRM.
And once this happens, these steps are taken, then human nature takes over and the perception of 'software' will die under the aegis of IP, making it just as reasonable to buy multiple copies of the latest Ricky Martin album for convienence and acoustic torture as it is to have the 7 phones, 5 TVs, 2 computers, and 3 cars many people have.
Vince said:
I don't like this future anymore!
cthellis42:
> While they thought there would be no way to copy CD-to-CD, meaning
> forced incentive.
With the prevalence of MC I sincerely doubt digital to digital copying was much of a concern.
> If a format COULD be controlled in it's own format...?
I think that ultimately you're overstating the significance of security. Keep in mind that CDs and DVDs weren't initially recordable. The industry made them so. There is no reason why an open format can't be read only. The interest just isn't there.
> Is that why people continually moved from LP to 8-track to cassette to CD
That is a flawed analogy. People will switch to another format when they believe it to be benificial. That is, when it offers something the previous format didn't - e.g. recordability, smaller size, better quality. When they make the switch they usually don't look back however.
Now obviously UMD has a size advantage but it won't be able to match the quality of a DVD, it won't get the same mass acceptance as DVD, it won't be recordable like MD or DVD. Basically, all it has going for it is size and only compared to DVD. Most people don't have interest in, nor time for, movie watching on the go.
> Is that why Mini-Disk players and MP3 players are only growing in
> popularity?
Do you buy many prerecorded MDs and MP3s?
Vince:
> While I'm going to stick to my current trend of not replying to you untill
> you start using quotes
I'll hold you to that.
> My Father lived threw a time when his father couldn't understand why
> he bought more than one telephone or more than one TV or more than
> one car.
More flawed analogies. You can't compare owning a copy of a movie specifically with the purpose of watching it on the go to owning multiple cars for practical uses (e.g. getting various family members to and from work), having several phones so you won't miss a call when in a different part of your home, out of your home or for private and work related use, or having multiple TVs for conveniency's sake so there will be no more arguments over what to watch. Again, there is a difference between content and hardware in the mind of the consumer. People don't mind buying all sorts of machines and gizmos but they don't get a sense of value from a little disc. Just look at people attitude towards piracy, it's quite accepted amongst the general population. But the same people would never think of stealing a TV, Walkman and so forth.
> While they thought there would be no way to copy CD-to-CD, meaning
> forced incentive.
With the prevalence of MC I sincerely doubt digital to digital copying was much of a concern.
> If a format COULD be controlled in it's own format...?
I think that ultimately you're overstating the significance of security. Keep in mind that CDs and DVDs weren't initially recordable. The industry made them so. There is no reason why an open format can't be read only. The interest just isn't there.
> Is that why people continually moved from LP to 8-track to cassette to CD
That is a flawed analogy. People will switch to another format when they believe it to be benificial. That is, when it offers something the previous format didn't - e.g. recordability, smaller size, better quality. When they make the switch they usually don't look back however.
Now obviously UMD has a size advantage but it won't be able to match the quality of a DVD, it won't get the same mass acceptance as DVD, it won't be recordable like MD or DVD. Basically, all it has going for it is size and only compared to DVD. Most people don't have interest in, nor time for, movie watching on the go.
> Is that why Mini-Disk players and MP3 players are only growing in
> popularity?
Do you buy many prerecorded MDs and MP3s?
Vince:
> While I'm going to stick to my current trend of not replying to you untill
> you start using quotes
I'll hold you to that.
> My Father lived threw a time when his father couldn't understand why
> he bought more than one telephone or more than one TV or more than
> one car.
More flawed analogies. You can't compare owning a copy of a movie specifically with the purpose of watching it on the go to owning multiple cars for practical uses (e.g. getting various family members to and from work), having several phones so you won't miss a call when in a different part of your home, out of your home or for private and work related use, or having multiple TVs for conveniency's sake so there will be no more arguments over what to watch. Again, there is a difference between content and hardware in the mind of the consumer. People don't mind buying all sorts of machines and gizmos but they don't get a sense of value from a little disc. Just look at people attitude towards piracy, it's quite accepted amongst the general population. But the same people would never think of stealing a TV, Walkman and so forth.
Galian Beast
Newcomer
The memory stick isn't proprietary anymore, and it will get much cheaper as it's market share and userbase grows. Right now it's not all that expensive, until you get into the large sizes.
Sony's goal of making a proprietary format standardized is through using their brand recognition. If the PlayStation 2 had used memory sticks, I guarantee you that they would now have almost complete market share in flash memory. The PSP would be a sinch to push, and Sony would be living it up. The've lost more than 3 years and 50+ million memory sticks. Also when it comes to making things standard, please STOP comparing Sony Electronics and Sony Computer Entertainment. Two completely different companies, with completely different levels of success.
UMDs not being writeable is a huge mistake. I still think by release Sony will change their mind. And if they do, the PSP will easily replace the CD as the standard for music, as long as it is pushed. Perhaps they believe that memory stick prices will drop enough by the end of 2004, so that they will be able to push the format for music. Vince I don't think you can get a 128mb memory stick for 50 dollars.
The PlayStation Portable will most likely NOT be bulky. There is no indication of it being so, especially not because of the screen size. The system has no games, but it will get ridiculous 3rd party support, and that is exciting. Unlike the GBA, the PSP won't be a stagnating member of the market.
Cybamerc, Sony doesn't need to profit on hardware right away, and not to the extent that Nintendo does. Nintendo bleeds consumers dry with the GBA. They aren't trying to bring the best technology out, because they don't need to. Just as Sony didn't make a profit right away with the PlayStation 2, they still broke even after like a year, because production cost went down, and they made money on software.
What is wrong with relying on 3rd parties? And Sony's software sales on PS2 in North America (and probably Europe) have far exceeded Nintendo's on the gamecube. Saying that the PSP would be direct competition for the PS2/3, is like saying that the GB was in competition with the nes/snes. Fact is PS2/3 is just for the home, where as the PSP will be for the home, but mostly out of the home. The PS3's graphics are going to own the PSP, and people will always want to play the PS3 over the PSP when at home.
The reason why the GameBoy Advance has a low tie in ratio is because it is targeted to an age group with no expendable income... older gamers, spend more money... buy more software...
I heard someone's calculation that the screen size would be 3.9' by 2.2', that's hardly large at all.
Sony's goal of making a proprietary format standardized is through using their brand recognition. If the PlayStation 2 had used memory sticks, I guarantee you that they would now have almost complete market share in flash memory. The PSP would be a sinch to push, and Sony would be living it up. The've lost more than 3 years and 50+ million memory sticks. Also when it comes to making things standard, please STOP comparing Sony Electronics and Sony Computer Entertainment. Two completely different companies, with completely different levels of success.
UMDs not being writeable is a huge mistake. I still think by release Sony will change their mind. And if they do, the PSP will easily replace the CD as the standard for music, as long as it is pushed. Perhaps they believe that memory stick prices will drop enough by the end of 2004, so that they will be able to push the format for music. Vince I don't think you can get a 128mb memory stick for 50 dollars.
The PlayStation Portable will most likely NOT be bulky. There is no indication of it being so, especially not because of the screen size. The system has no games, but it will get ridiculous 3rd party support, and that is exciting. Unlike the GBA, the PSP won't be a stagnating member of the market.
Cybamerc, Sony doesn't need to profit on hardware right away, and not to the extent that Nintendo does. Nintendo bleeds consumers dry with the GBA. They aren't trying to bring the best technology out, because they don't need to. Just as Sony didn't make a profit right away with the PlayStation 2, they still broke even after like a year, because production cost went down, and they made money on software.
What is wrong with relying on 3rd parties? And Sony's software sales on PS2 in North America (and probably Europe) have far exceeded Nintendo's on the gamecube. Saying that the PSP would be direct competition for the PS2/3, is like saying that the GB was in competition with the nes/snes. Fact is PS2/3 is just for the home, where as the PSP will be for the home, but mostly out of the home. The PS3's graphics are going to own the PSP, and people will always want to play the PS3 over the PSP when at home.
The reason why the GameBoy Advance has a low tie in ratio is because it is targeted to an age group with no expendable income... older gamers, spend more money... buy more software...
I heard someone's calculation that the screen size would be 3.9' by 2.2', that's hardly large at all.
Galian Beast
Newcomer
What don't you understand?
Galian Beast said:
He's probably wondering why you call GBA a stagnating part of the market when it is in no way showing signs of stagnation...
As for memory stick dropping in price, the only reason they're expensive now is because Sony's pricing them like that. Now Samsung's getting into the market, and that will probably open up for more manufacturers as well. More competition, lower prices.
*G*