Well that's quite a different argument to Pipo's query about tools for next-gen consoles, which is what I was talking about (and not Nick's comments on parallelism).
I don't think it is that different. Game development has the same fundamental constraints as the rest of the software industry, the only difference is that is has a different emphasis on the various constraints. Schedule is by far the most important everywhere. Game development probably has more emphasis on performance in general, but not in all cases. Cost is also an important consideration.
Cost is directly related to schedule, so time-to-market matters. Having the proper tools for a job is essential to succeed.
But still, if multicore happens, tools will happen. Inevitably. Intel and AMD and IBM will create their own if there's no universal standards, because they are creating these processor and they will need development tools to work them!
I just don't share your optimism. IBM certainly didn't have a clue as to how to program CELL initially, presenting three different programming models (inter-communicating SPEs, batch jobs, and managed code) before ending up with the only one that is feasible in the long run (the batch job one). AMD hasn't provided anything to help the anaemic performance you get from a X2 when you have one thread that is bounced between two cores causing massive amounts of L1+L2 cache misses.
Relying on hardware companies to come up with a software paradigm shift is optimistic IMO.
Cheers