HD-DVD on xbox360 bad?

[Johnny Awesome]

I agree with Rancid, even if X360 took off and beat PS3 in marketshare, thereby killing the Blu-Ray standard (a VERY big if) it wouldn't even really be to Microsoft's advantage since they have to real vested interest in the format wars. On the other hand, if they go with standard DVD-9 then MS will be able to keep their costs lower against PS3 and force Sony's game division to eat that cost differential.

In other words, the potential upside to keeping their costs lower is much greater than the potential upside to winning the format wars for the DVD forum, especially considering that keeping their costs down is a guarantee and winning the format war is anything but.

It's just smart business.

Very few games will have budgets capable of producing more than 9GB of data. In those cases I'm pretty sure it will be worth it to include an extra disk.

 

[Powderkeg]

I agree with Rancid, even if X360 took off and beat PS3 in marketshare, thereby killing the Blu-Ray standard.

No console is capable of "winning" or "losing" the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray format war. Consoles sales don't hold a candle to stand alone player sales.

 

[kyleb]

It'll all come down to what the Buffy, Angel, FireFly, Ripper, and X-Men series come out on. And to a lesser extent FarScape, BattleStar Galactica, Stargate SG-1, Stargate Atlantis, and Charmed. From that, I'll venture to say Joss Whedon > SpiderMan > George Lucas.

I'm pretty sure most TV is filmed digitally at SD resolutions, so I doubt you will see HD releases of any of that.

 

[rusty]

The way I see it, any increased optical drive that MS adds to the X360 at a later date will be completely irrelevant. It will only be good for playing HD movies, because all X360 games will still be forced to comply to the limits of the standard DVD that the original units shipped with. It's also irrelevant because like BR in the PS3, anybody who has an HDTV and really cares will buy whichever format of stand alone player they want.

Whilst you say that, i'm not sure it's strictly true in the case of game storage media...

it would be feasible for example, i'm sure you'll agree, that some of the larger games may have to come on multiple DVD's for the x360 - especially later in the life cycle:

it wouldn't be beyond the relms of possibiliy for a game manufacturer to release 2 versions of the game - one split onto two DVD's for those with an older x360, and one contained on a single HD dvd/whatever for the newer ones. They would just have to adjust the ratio of DVD to HD DVD copies according to the ratio of x360's with the corresponding drive out there, and they shouldn't run into too many problems regarding excess/short supply of either.

of course they may well run into the problem that consumers buy the wrong type and end up confused as to why their game won't play, but it wouldn't be hard for microsoft to implement an error message explaining the issue at which point the game could be taken back and swapped for the correct one. It's not perfect i agree, but it's certainly not impossible.

I personally would be pretty pissed if i bought a dvd x360 and under a year later it gets a revision with an HD drive - but perhaps it's all part of microsoft's cunning plan to sell more units... a lot of the hard core who buy a console early (and thus got a DVD x360) would probably buy the new version when it came out. I know i'd probably be pretty tempted, even if the benefits were dubious!

 

[BlueTsunami]

Whilst you say that, i'm not sure it's strictly true in the case of game storage media...

it would be feasible for example, i'm sure you'll agree, that some of the larger games may have to come on multiple DVD's for the x360 - especially later in the life cycle:

it wouldn't be beyond the relms of possibiliy for a game manufacturer to release 2 versions of the game - one split onto two DVD's for those with an older x360, and one contained on a single HD dvd/whatever for the newer ones. They would just have to adjust the ratio of DVD to HD DVD copies according to the ratio of x360's with the corresponding drive out there, and they shouldn't run into too many problems regarding excess/short supply of either.

of course they may well run into the problem that consumers buy the wrong type and end up confused as to why their game won't play, but it wouldn't be hard for microsoft to implement an error message explaining the issue at which point the game could be taken back and swapped for the correct one. It's not perfect i agree, but it's certainly not impossible.

I personally would be pretty pissed if i bought a dvd x360 and under a year later it gets a revision with an HD drive - but perhaps it's all part of microsoft's cunning plan to sell more units... a lot of the hard core who buy a console early (and thus got a DVD x360) would probably buy the new version when it came out. I know i'd probably be pretty tempted, even if the benefits were dubious!

Why go throught the trouble...just span the game onto multiple DVD's and be done with it. What i'm wondering is if Sports games will reach a point (possibly near the lifes end of these next gen consoles) where it would be to much content to put on one DVD. If thats the case....how would you span a game like Madden across two DVD's? Would it even get to that point? It just seems like Microsoft isn't future proofing that aspect of the Xbox360.

 

[mckmas8808]

Another dev talking about lack of space.

And Enchant Arm does seem to be a full fledged RPG. In terms of volume, Takeuchi reveals that fitting everything on a single DVD could be tough. True to Japanese RPG form, you can count on seeing a lengthy quest rather than a short quest with a bunch of different paths.

I wonder what devs will be thinking in 2 years while still developing games for the DVD media?

 

[rusty]

Why go throught the trouble...just span the game onto multiple DVD's and be done with it. What i'm wondering is if Sports games will reach a point (possibly near the lifes end of these next gen consoles) where it would be to much content to put on one DVD. If thats the case....how would you span a game like Madden across two DVD's? Would it even get to that point? It just seems like Microsoft isn't future proofing that aspect of the Xbox360.

i never said it would necessarilly be worth the trouble, i said that it wasn't inconceivable. And if a Dev wanted to create a large seamless game, then i could see them using HD DVD/Blu Ray as the main target, then breaking it down across 2 dvd's for those that can't use the HD format. This is mainly assuming the change happened early on and the number of HD capable x360's outnumbered the normal DVD versions though.

Again i'm not saying it will happen and i'm not even saying it's a good idea, i'm just saying it's possible without too much agro.

 

[ShootMyMonkey]

And if a Dev wanted to create a large seamless game, then i could see them using HD DVD/Blu Ray as the main target, then breaking it down across 2 dvd's for those that can't use the HD format. This is mainly assuming the change happened early on and the number of HD capable x360's outnumbered the normal DVD versions though.

Again, is there any real indication that the HD-capable version would be anything more than a regular Xbox360 + HD Video playback? Looking back to the Bloomberg article, it seems to sound more like it'd be there for the sake of extra "media device" features as opposed to actually replacing the regular DVD drive as the target for game discs.

If that is the case, there really isn't any big problem. It'd only be if the HD-DVD or Bluray becomes the new standard drive for data as well as video that problems could arise because it throws away the whole "fixed hardware platform" on which the idea of a console is built.

 

[rusty]

Again, is there any real indication that the HD-capable version would be anything more than a regular Xbox360 + HD Video playback?

no, there isn't. It's all just speculation on possibilities on my part....

The ultimate blow to sony i imagine would be if microsoft later inlcuded one of those combo drives which can read both hd dvd and blu ray... that would certainly give the x360 the edge as an all round HD media Hub, at least until the format war dies down (which i'm guessing won't happen for a good many years - probably just in time for the next version of the xbox!

 

[blakjedi]

why would w game like madden EVER span more than one dvd?

 

[jvd]

The thing about hd-dvd and x360 is simple .

If ms goes with hd-dvd toshiba will have a huge platform out this holiday season to go hand in hand with the launching of hd-dvd in the states .

Mis plans on selling 10 million x360s in its first 12-18 months . That is 10 million hd-dvd players out for toshiba by what june of 2007 and then of course anything they sell in rom , rw and stand alone player sales .

This could be a big enough advantage to seriously hurt and prolong if not utterly destroy bluray .

There isn't much for ms to gain except i guess a movie playback and bigger disc sizes . Neither very important but i guess it couldn't hurt .

This is why I believe we see a cat and mouse game with toshiba and ms . Toshiba wants in bad , it can only help them . Ms knows this and is going to get the cheapest price possible . Perhaps as I believe toshiba taking a loss on each drive they sell ms .

Toshiba has the same thing to gain over sony . Which is tons of royalitys per disc sold for most likely the next 10 + years . So its easy to believe if sony is willing to put the bluray drive in the ps3 and loose money on the drives and system not to mention lost sales of stand alone players (with higher preimums ) then toshiba will surely be willing to take a hit on just the drives .

 

[bbot]

jvd,

If Star Wars: Episode III is released on blu-ray, it will become the killer app for the blu-ray format and also for PS3.

 

[Arty]

jvd,

If Star Wars: Episode III is released on blu-ray, it will become the killer app for the blu-ray format and also for PS3.

rofl

 

[Pozer]

i never said it would necessarilly be worth the trouble, i said that it wasn't inconceivable. And if a Dev wanted to create a large seamless game, then i could see them using HD DVD/Blu Ray as the main target, then breaking it down across 2 dvd's for those that can't use the HD format. This is mainly assuming the change happened early on and the number of HD capable x360's outnumbered the normal DVD versions though.

Again i'm not saying it will happen and i'm not even saying it's a good idea, i'm just saying it's possible without too much agro.

Of course then publishers would have to ship multiple SKUs for each game and also have increased cost of testing, manufacturing, and packaging. Then there's the availability issue if the HD units greatly outnumber the non-HD. Basically its a bad idea as it pisses both devs and customers off. If no 2 SKUs on even a single game then that would make one heck of a class action lawsuit that any first year law student could win by not even having to show up for court.

Also the 1.5G discs didnt hurt Nintendo. I just think it will be common for RPGs to ship on 2-3 discs. First gen games will be 1 disc, 2nd gen will be more.

But seriously if Toshiba is serious about winning they will get the HD-dvd in the 360 somehow by launch. If not then be prepared to buy a BR player in some form in the future.

 

[Pozer]

jvd,

If Star Wars: Episode III is released on blu-ray, it will become the killer app for the blu-ray format and also for PS3.

There is and always has been only 1 killer app in technology son, and it's porn.

Everyone always mentions this studio and that studio. See which way the porn industry is shifting and you'll have your winner.

 

[MechanizedDeath]

HD-DVD simply won't happen for the 360 IMO, not by launch anyway. I don't see how it's possible costwise for MS. I don't see Toshiba offering a drive a cost near what Sony'll pay as the prime manufacturer of the PS3's drive. Nor do I see how they'll get either volume or spec changes completed in time. Post-launch? Sure. But it will mean the drive will only function for video playback, and not game storage. A 3rd party HD-DVD drive AND an HDD? It would be awesome if they manage it, but I thought this was argued as a reason for Sony dropping the HDD from the PS3. Something's gotta give in the cost equation. I'd like to think the 360 was built over retail price as is. Adding more this late in the game seems...silly. But hey, make it happen, cap'n. PEACE.

 

[a688]

HD-DVD simply won't happen for the 360 IMO, not by launch anyway. I don't see how it's possible costwise for MS. I don't see Toshiba offering a drive a cost near what Sony'll pay as the prime manufacturer of the PS3's drive. Nor do I see how they'll get either volume or spec changes completed in time. Post-launch? Sure. But it will mean the drive will only function for video playback, and not game storage. A 3rd party HD-DVD drive AND an HDD? It would be awesome if they manage it, but I thought this was argued as a reason for Sony dropping the HDD from the PS3. Something's gotta give in the cost equation. I'd like to think the 360 was built over retail price as is. Adding more this late in the game seems...silly. But hey, make it happen, cap'n. PEACE.

There is no reason why Toshiba couldn't sell the drives to MS at cost so it would build a base of HD-DVD capable players. Also, just because Sony manufactures the (Blue-ray) drive itself doesn't mean it will be "cheap" or even cheaper than what Toshiba could offer MS for a HD-DVD drive. Manufacturing something yourself doesn't make it automatically cheaper unless you are doing it for a loss which last time I checked wasn't "cheap".

 

[MechanizedDeath]

There is no reason why Toshiba couldn't sell the drives to MS at cost so it would build a base of HD-DVD capable players. Also, just because Sony manufactures the (Blue-ray) drive itself doesn't mean it will be "cheap" or even cheaper than what Toshiba could offer MS for a HD-DVD drive. Manufacturing something yourself doesn't make it automatically cheaper unless you are doing it for a loss which last time I checked wasn't "cheap".

Sony'll make them in larger volumes, and will not have to deliver parts to a 3rd party. It's all inhouse. AFAIK, MS won't be ramping up production to crazy levels like Sony will, b/c I doubt they can expect the same worldwide demand Sony can. Plus I'm not sure where those drives are gonna be made. Japan? Somewhere in Asia? Won't importing drives also impose an additional cost? None of us know the numbers involved, so it's idle speculation. But the logistics just seem prohibitive. Why on earth would Toshiba do this when the 360 isn't even a guaranteed success? At least Sony has two territories on lockdown, Japan and EU. They're guaranteed a large demand, at least overseas. The 360 is such an unknown that tying themselves into a losing contract with a machine that could well flop wouldn't serve them any good, short-term or long-term. Establishing a platform by offering discount drives to a company that'll be making most of its money off software would be like handing MS free money. MS would have to promise a share of software revenue or something to make the deal worthwhile to Toshiba, unless they're really that worried about HD-DVD flopping. In which case, they should be pushing for unification, not some hokey hw deal that is almost a guaranteed loss.

Think of it this way. Toshiba is not gonna make money back off movie sales. Not nearly as much as MS and Sony stand to profit off software sales. So Toshiba would be bleeding with little to no chance of recouping their losses. All they'll gain is a *chance* of building an install base. Sony, OTOH, can swallow the cost, b/c even if BR flops, they are making money off software. This deal is a MS-centric deal, and a big loss for Toshiba. If MS gives them a slice of software revenue, it brings its own problems (shades of the NV2A deal). Makes no sense to me. But again, I'd love to see it. :? PEACE.

 

[jvd]

jvd,

If Star Wars: Episode III is released on blu-ray, it will become the killer app for the blu-ray format and also for PS3.

If lord of the rings trilogy is released on hd-dvd it will be 3 killer apps for hd-dvd .

Look both sides have a ton of content . What it comes down to is who puts out this content first . Look at how long it took lucas to put the old star wars on dvd . You really think he is going to dive right in and put anything more than eps3 on bluray ? Even then i doubt it . He will most likely wait till he does the 3d versions

 

[Sovere]

I doubt the content or who releases the content first will matter. I believe the determing factor more dependent on who can tell the best lovely lies to the consumer and get them to buy something that's imo premature.