Feb NPD! The 2nd best thing to crack.

[Zassk]

While I agree and don't expect PS3 to overtake XB360 any time soon if ever, playing Devil's Advocate here there is a logical argument that a 30k advantage now could expand to greater advantage over time, as sales gain momentum with decreasing price and increasing softwares. The sales of PS3 have gone from 1:2 behind XB360 to about 1:1. If that rate of acceleration in sales were to progress (and it's more a jump than an acceleration, and if due to shortages then we don't know what XB360's sustained rate could be) then sales of PS3 could sensibly be expected to hit 2:1 versus XB360. I don't think it will, but it's not irrational to think it might happen.

So you suggest that we graph the "acceleration" of each console's sales, to try to anticipate trends? Hmm, interesting concept, but I don't know if we can say that sales have a "momentum" attribute in quite this manner.

Even by this metric, the PS3 had the least improvement from January to February of the 3 consoles, and the only reason it had the best transition from December to January is because its holiday was the weakest in the first place.

 

[iceberg187]

November 22nd 2005
Cost of 360 arcade $299
Cost of 360 Premium $399

March 14th 2008
Cost of 360 arcade $279
Cost of Premium $349

2.5 years and they have only had a $50 price cut. Once they take the pricing down, Microsoft will be more than fine. They are showing great numbers at this price point but it is now the time for a $199 360 to hit the market and for it to take off.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The XB360 doesn't have to "return to original sales" because it's actually selling better than last year. The PS3's huge growth has not depressed XB360's sales in any visible way. On the contrary, the XBox brand just had its best February ever!

Relative to the competition, which is what this dumb 'war' is all about, a return to original position would be outselling PS3 2:1.

Even by this metric, the PS3 had the least improvement from January to February of the 3 consoles, and the only reason it had the best transition from December to January is because its holiday was the weakest in the first place.

The figures are way to erratic to use weekly or monthly figures. A strong title can shift enough extra units to completely throw out trends. eg. Media Create showed PSP with 50k, 70k, and 50k. Would you take that as sign of a downturn in interest? We had a long downward slope on Wii sales in Japan and then Bam! it's back up there. Sales in PS3 also jumped rather than grew. And sales in XB360 dropped rather than declined. Trending is a black art! All figures aside, we are sure that in NA interest in PS3 has escalated over the past year relative to XB360. If that long-term trend continues, it would be expected to overtake XB360. That would of course require all the right choices by Sony and the wrong ones by MS, as it's the changes to the systems that are going to affect desirability and sales.

 

[Vic]

fixed


Edit:
I love how this mantra (360 is losing outside of US to mean losing worldwide) has taken on the air of FACT when we have no conclusive data anywhere showing this to be true.

what we do have is NPD conclusively showing 360 with a huge actual advantage in NA which will be nearly impossible to overcome for PS3 (a surplus of a paltry 30,000 units per month won;t cut it even if that can be sustained)... and Japan data (smallest market WW) showing Wii dominating and PS3 doing ok and 360 in its usual displaced position of last. all other data is a guess

Uhh...there is EU data that shows 360 is behind PS3 already, despite a 15 month headstart.

Then you look at the sale ratio's of DMC4, Burnout and COD4 and its pretty obvious whats going on.

 

[mrcorbo]

And noone can give the PS3 credit for actual selling now?
It´s still behind by a large amount but this would have seem like science fiction a year ago...

I can and do. Just like I did last month. I said then that that level of sales was likely the new baseline for PS3 sales and this month's sales more than validate that opinion. I can't really see why the PS3 would start selling worse at any time in the forseeable future, so it's really a matter of whether they are going to maintain sales growth or whether they will settle into a steady sales rate over the coming months leading into the all-important holiday season.

It's dangerous to try to project your own perspective on the market as a whole, but to me it's telling that over the last 6 mos. or so the possibility of me buying and supporting 2 consoles this generation has gone from a slight possibility to a strong possibility and it's mainly because of BluRay (someone correct me on the proper form of this if necessary). I can justify buying a PS3 as a BluRay player with added functionality in a way that I couldn't if it were essentially just duplicating what my 360 already offers even if I only buy a few software titles for it. There must be others thinking similarly.

I am not ready to buy in yet, but in 6 more months..??? I will say that I would definitely jump @ $299.

 

[Tap In]

Uhh...there is EU data that shows 360 is behind PS3 already, despite a 15 month headstart.

Then you look at the sale ratio's of DMC4, Burnout and COD4 and its pretty obvious whats going on.

I'd say the data is suspect and thst still does not indicate that PS3 had somehow overtaken 360 WW.

that was my point

people hear some unsubstantiated, incomplete EU data and all of a sudden that gets blown up to "PS3 now leads 360 WW" as if they magically erased millions of sales lead in NA with some EU numbers indicating a trend for PS3.

I'm not saying that I know for sure that it is not true or may one day be possible, just that people took some trending of EU data (incomplete) and it's all of a sudden it's become a repeated fact that it was enough to make up for the difference in NA (highly unlikely)

 

[AlphaWolf]

I'd say the data is suspect and thst still does not indicate that PS3 had somehow overtaken 360 WW.

that was my point

people hear some unsubstantiated, incomplete EU data and all of a sudden that gets blown up to "PS3 now leads 360 WW" as if they magically erased millions of sales lead in NA with some EU numbers indicating a trend for PS3.

I'm not saying that I know for sure that it is not true or may one day be possible, just that people took some trending of EU data (incomplete) and it's all of a sudden it's become a repeated fact that it was enough to make up for the difference in NA (highly unlikely)

There's absolutely no chance that the ps3 is leading the 360 worldwide. It's definitely outselling the 360 in the EU tho, and it has been for some time.

US + Japan numbers still show a significant (~3million) lead for the 360.

 

[StefanS]

There's absolutely no chance that the ps3 is leading the 360 worldwide. It's definitely outselling the 360 in the EU tho, and it has been for some time.

US + Japan numbers still show a significant (~3million) lead for the 360.

Sony's own quarter numbers show that it's still lagging behind by a significant number worldwide. So there's absolutely no doubt that Sony's currently in the third place and will remain so for a quite a while.

 

[Vic]

I'd say the data is suspect and thst still does not indicate that PS3 had somehow overtaken 360 WW.

that was my point

people hear some unsubstantiated, incomplete EU data and all of a sudden that gets blown up to "PS3 now leads 360 WW" as if they magically erased millions of sales lead in NA with some EU numbers indicating a trend for PS3.

I'm not saying that I know for sure that it is not true or may one day be possible, just that people took some trending of EU data (incomplete) and it's all of a sudden it's become a repeated fact that it was enough to make up for the difference in NA (highly unlikely)

So because you dont rate the data, it isnt valid? As far as I'm aware, it is taken from official sources.

 

[....]

By the end of 2008, it'll be very clear that Nintendo is head and shoulders above the rest. Remember they still haven't been able to keep up with demand. One day that'll happen. Then you still have to factor in the price drops and only God knows how many colors they'll come out with!

Nintendo will likely expand the market and saturate the casual base in the following years, when it comes to the next christmast present in many of those casual homes, what do you think is going to be their second console? A PS3!!! of course!

It will likely be just likely the DS vs psp in japan, with the former expanding and saturating its market, and thus allowing for increased sales of the second.

As for my 360 successor comment. SONY DOES NOT HAVE TO BEAT 360 FOR THE 720 PLANS TO BE PUT FULL THROTTLE. Wii will be first, now blu-ray's triumph has dealt a heavy blow image wise to the 360. Sony is becoming second worldwide. Each month that they lead in the US, they eat 100s of thousands of units in the installed base difference with 360 in europe and asia.

If the xbox 360 is seen struggling for third place, and with worse image than the other two, no waggle nor blu-ray. They will likely pull the plug early. They saw it gave them an advantage, even despite the many problems they had shortages, h/w failures, early software being a laughing stock in the internet, and their fanbase was willing to follow a short console lifespan.

Do you honestly think microsoft will settle for third and ignore the possibility of being in first place next gen?

 

[AlphaWolf]

MS will happily settle for 3rd if it means profit, but they are still a long way from 3rd and in the NA market they've got a lock on no worse than 2nd, with an incredible attach ratio.


But I'm sure if you use more bold/caps text you'll goad them into releasing the 720 next year.

 

[Tap In]

...now blu-ray's triumph has dealt a heavy blow image wise to the 360....

I don't think it has had any effect whatsoever (except in your circle perhaps)

the 360 has always been about DVD games not HDDVD or blu ray movies.

The VERY few people that even bothered to purchase the HD DVD player (me ) never associated it as anything to do with gaming or the PS3. the PS3 owners/supporters are the only ones who turned that into an issue.

the X360 is about games.... DVD games... a record number of sold DVD games and has nothing to do with sony's movie playing format.

Xbox Live OTOH is trying to compete with the movie formats IMO and did so even when HDDVD was viable...

 

[patsu]

The Blu-ray momentum is still very young. To see its full effect, we need to wait for one or two more years. If it is successful, PS3 will have a larger base to sell to (like Wii), and it could potentially sell faster.

Nonetheless, this is a separate segment from 360's core gamers (Just like Wii is able to tap on an extended market).

Blu-ray is still in enthusiasts stage. Don't look too hard yet, but also don't write it off yet. It's just a variable for now.

 

[Mobius1aic]

360 getting it's image blown about the HD-DVD vs. BR-DVD is really an overstatement, considering the normal consumer really doesn't care all to much, nor even pays attention to this stuff. In the end the consumer goes to where the practical functionality and software is. The software is with 360 for the most part, but the PS3 is catching up, especially with alot of PS3 titles being lead for multiplatform games. The PS3 does have more practical function in terms of what you can do with it, but it's not that useful yet. The 360 does well as being an entertainment machine that focuses most on games, while the PS3 really does feel like a multimedia machine as well, but with more focus on forms of media outside games.

I'm quite enjoying this really healthy competition. To me their are really two major competitions for this generation of consoles: Wii, 360, and PS3 versus each other as a whole, then you have the 360 versus PS3 directly.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Each month that they lead in the US, they eat 100s of thousands of units in the installed base difference with 360 in europe and asia.

Like 200,000? So to catch up 8 million will take 40 months...

Do you honestly think microsoft will settle for third and ignore the possibility of being in first place next gen?

Despite forumites and the pandering media seeing this as a race, it's not. It's business. It's about making money. It's about investing billions to establish revenue sources, and getting as much ROI as possible from it. If XB360 has a strong install base and fabulous returns on content, the incentive to launch early isn't necessarily there. If XB360 establishes Live as a download platform and can extend it to PC and elsewhere, the incentive for a sequel console becomes even less.

 

[dobwal]

Nintendo will likely expand the market and saturate the casual base in the following years, when it comes to the next christmast present in many of those casual homes, what do you think is going to be their second console? A PS3!!! of course!

It will likely be just likely the DS vs psp in japan, with the former expanding and saturating its market, and thus allowing for increased sales of the second.

As for my 360 successor comment. SONY DOES NOT HAVE TO BEAT 360 FOR THE 720 PLANS TO BE PUT FULL THROTTLE. Wii will be first, now blu-ray's triumph has dealt a heavy blow image wise to the 360. Sony is becoming second worldwide. Each month that they lead in the US, they eat 100s of thousands of units in the installed base difference with 360 in europe and asia.

If the xbox 360 is seen struggling for third place, and with worse image than the other two, no waggle nor blu-ray. They will likely pull the plug early. They saw it gave them an advantage, even despite the many problems they had shortages, h/w failures, early software being a laughing stock in the internet, and their fanbase was willing to follow a short console lifespan.

Do you honestly think microsoft will settle for third and ignore the possibility of being in first place next gen?

Do you routinely formulate your outlook in a vacuum.

First, you honestly think MS is going to take a note from Sega's playbook and release a 720 early like Sega did the Dreamcast. Releasing a 720 early will bring the ire of third party developers like the introduction of the dreamcast was met with anger from japanese developers. The 360 is doing well software wise and bringing about its demise with an early transistion to the next xbox platform is going to create some resentment from those developers who will not be able to maximize their investment into the 360 platform.

Second, you do know that the precedessor of the Wii was the third place GC, who if you factor out japan sales, performed worse in the past than the 360 is currently doing in Europe and the US. If Nintendo can go from a struggling third to a dominating first, why should MS become desperate and release a 720 early. Furthermore, Nintendo made the transition from third and first while arriving late to the party, not early. You don't think MS knows the irony of last generation. "Yeah, Xbox you're #2 but you have a 4 billion dollars hole in your pocket, while the 3rd place GC produce little loss or a gain for Nintendo".

History shows us that releasing the 720 early has a greater probability of turning the 720 into the next dreamcast not the next Wii.

 

[Archgamer]

I think there is already evidence to assume that the PS3 is outselling the 360 in Europe on a monthly bases. Taking a look at last year overall numbers indicated that the PS3 outsold the 360 worldwide despite NA being their weakest market in placement to hardware sales. Could this mean Sony can depend on Europe and Japan to play catch up? Most likely.

 

[dobwal]

I think there is already evidence to assume that the PS3 is outselling the 360 in Europe on a monthly bases. Taking a look at last year overall numbers indicated that the PS3 outsold the 360 worldwide despite NA being their weakest market in placement to hardware sales. Could this mean Sony can depend on Europe and Japan to play catch up? Most likely.

Sony can play catch up with better sales in Europe and Japan but it will be slow going. PS3's japan sales have slowed dramatically in japan and outselling the 360 14k to 2k every week aren't going to erase the 360 worldwide lead very soon. The PS3 is doing much better than in Europe but not to the point that one can reasonably expect the PS3 to erase a 7 million console lead in a short time frame.

Now considered the current state of sales which came with the PS3 dropping price at a much faster rate than the 360. If the 360 conservative pricing strategy has given MS alot of flexibility on price reduction over the next year while Sony past pricing strategy has limited its ability in the near term, we might have a situation where the 360 and PS3 sale approach equal sales levels or worse the 360 begans to outsell the PS3.

Its a given that additional price cuts will happen over the next year for both consoles but the size of the cuts will determine if the PS3 can eat through the 360's lead so "Most likely" seems a little premature.

Just 6 months ago, there was all this doom and gloom with the PS3 and yet here we are at the start of the new year and the outlook for the PS3 is much rosier, so the 360 current outlook in Europe shouldn't automatically be construed as a long term reality.

 

[Scott_Arm]

What are the supposed worldwide numbers for each system? Seems to be some big disagreement about the actual numbers. I don't know anything about any of the regions other than NA. I keep reading each person saying there is data to support 'x', but no one is posting it.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

What are the supposed worldwide numbers for each system?

No-one knows. Figures are about 17-18 M XB360s to 10+ M PS3s, and 20+ million Wii's. VGChartz is probably where people get most of their figures, which, updated with press releases, we can trust to be fairly good within a million or so of real figures.