NPD August 2008
- Thread starter RobertR1
- Start date
Yes thank you.
DRjay - Supply and demand doesn't just have to do with selling all you can make. It also has to do with how fast your can sell out all that you can make. IF you were selling 500k and were supply limited and it took you an average of a day to sell those units after arriving in stores and now your selling 400k(to stock up for the holiday)in an average of two days to sell them after arriving in stores , your demand has decreased for that product. Your still selling out your stock , but its obvious that demand has soften and that if its a continued trend the time between sell outs will increase and it could be a snow ball effect later down the road as the two day sell through becomes 4 days and then 8 days and so on and so forth. The real question is what happened if nintendo shipped all they could make. Would they have sold out or could you have seen wiis on store shelves for weeks.
Erm, no it doesn't. If shops are still selling out before new stock arrives, then it is still supply which is limiting sales. There's no provision in the supply and demand model for "demand decreasing from significantly exceeding supply to not exceeding it quite so much as before"
Maybe you can use your "how fast you can sell out" metric to make some kind of prediction of when demand will return to being equal to supply at the current price point, but throw holiday season stockpiling, a competitor price cut, the credit crunch and a ton of other variables into the mix and it's not likely to be very accurate.
I think at most what we can see is Wii sales peaking for August. What this even means is questionable. For 360/PS3 one of the year's biggest titles was released in August. For the Wii... well, Madden didn't sell that well, and without Madden August was pretty lackluster for the Wii. Even so, even if Wii sales are peaking, they've peaked at about twice the sales of the other two consoles.
Though if you're going to claim that Wii sales have peaked, you'd have to accept that 360/PS3 sales have peaked too, at about half the amount, at least before the price-cut.
Though if you're going to claim that Wii sales have peaked, you'd have to accept that 360/PS3 sales have peaked too, at about half the amount, at least before the price-cut.
Erm, no it doesn't. If shops are still selling out before new stock arrives, then it is still supply which is limiting sales. There's no provision in the supply and demand model for "demand decreasing from significantly exceeding supply to not exceeding it quite so much as before"
Maybe you can use your "how fast you can sell out" metric to make some kind of prediction of when demand will return to being equal to supply at the current price point, but throw holiday season stockpiling, a competitor price cut, the credit crunch and a ton of other variables into the mix and it's not likely to be very accurate.
So If I ship 50 units of something and don't send anymore out for 3 years but they all sell out in that 3 years i'm supply limited ?
I don't think so as i'm in control of the supply. We already know that nintendo is artificialy reducing shipment numbers to stock up for the holidays. We do not know if nintendo will sell out of stock if it supplied the previous unit shipments and not the reduced number they got .
Erm, no it doesn't. If shops are still selling out before new stock arrives, then it is still supply which is limiting sales. There's no provision in the supply and demand model for "demand decreasing from significantly exceeding supply to not exceeding it quite so much as before"
There are provisions in supply and demand model revolving around measuring demand even when supply is limited.
Hypothectically, Im able to supply only 100k of my product to the market every 30 days.
Scenario 1, my products sells out in 20 days.
Scenario 2, my products sells out in 10 days.
In both scenario, my product is supply limited but due to the fact that using rate of consumption is a valid method for measuring demand I know that in scenario 2 there exist a higher demand for my product than in scenario 1.
Now optimal demand for the Wii can't be measured when supply is limited, but whether demand is increasing or decreasing can be measured.
In a very limited scope. We're looking month after month and drawing conclusions, but not all months are created equal. Year over year, is the Wii up?
I mean, what I'm seeing (not from you) is: 'Wii didn't sell as well in August as it has in previous months, 360 has a price-cut coming, therefore the 360 could outsell the Wii come the holidays.' And that's just a huge leap of logic. We don't even know the effect of the price cut yet.
Perhaps not as huge a leap as you may think,.
It is based on the fact that last year Wii was outselling X360 handily most of 2007 as usual and yet in
November of 2007
Wii sold 981,000
X360 sold 770,000
Dec of 2007
Wii sold 1,350,000
X360 1,260,000
so if circumstances are right it appears that it could happen as easily as not happening.
I cant recall the game releases and the promotion push around that time. But Microsoft is clearly getting ready to "buy" some customers again:
http://www.edge-online.com/news/ms-launches-biggest-ever-xbox-360-marketing-blitz
I doubt Nintendo will do anything like this or in any case not in the same scale.
Just like any other console is trying to "buy" customers every holiday, by either lowering prices in advance or pushing out all their big titles, and advertising. Trying to make out MS as the big bad wolf in this case is silly at best.
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thegamesmaster
Newcomer
Wow they just made another price cut in europe making the core 179 euros (from199) and the premium 239euros (from 269)...now the 60gb premium is cheaper than the Wii...
That's the discount in among others the Netherlands, right? You have to fill in one of those forms and then you get some additional money back. We discussed it earlier on this forum, in this thread or the 360 price cut thread, not sure which.
DuckThor Evil
Legend
179€,239€ and 299€ are the official European prices for the different 360 models, I got the impression that in Netherlands there is an additional 50€ off campaign of some sort.
thegamesmaster
Newcomer
That's right, those are the new official European prices.
Oh sorry, yes, I got confused ... he was just repeating what we already knew, I didn't expect that (goes to show the quality of this forum in general ).
Yeah, so in the Netherlands you can get them for I think an additional 30 euro off (not 50!)
). Yeah, so in the Netherlands you can get them for I think an additional 30 euro off (not 50!)
To be precise, until Jan 1, 2009 the prices in The Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg are:
€149 for the Arcade
€199 for the Premium
€249 for the Elite
This respectively includes a €30, €40, and €50 cashback from Microsoft.
One would expect them to fly off the shelves.
Perhaps the most interesting NPD of the year, coming up soon
esp with the xbox360 pricecut (first console to achieve the 'magical' $200 pricepoint)
WRT xbox360 sales
00k disaster
300-350k bad
350-400k ok
400-450k good
450-500k great
>500k brilliant
Ild guess it will be in the ok range
also of interest is wether or not the wii maintains its downward slide
esp with the xbox360 pricecut (first console to achieve the 'magical' $200 pricepoint)
WRT xbox360 sales
00k disaster300-350k bad
350-400k ok
400-450k good
450-500k great
>500k brilliant
Ild guess it will be in the ok range
also of interest is wether or not the wii maintains its downward slide
If only people weren't busy trying to get their cash back from the banks...
The strategy made me wonder though. I suspect MS thinks they can create a critical mass in Q4 over here.
Localization please...
