Uh, considering the PS3 was selling more than the Xbox 360 before Q4, I don't think that's true.
European Console Sales (2009 Edition)
- Thread starter 22psi
- Start date
- Status
Uh, considering the PS3 was selling more than the Xbox 360 before Q4, I don't think that's true.
Because have you paid attention to the sales? 360 has been outselling PS3 2-1 the last two NPD's. Even if say, they've been tied in Europe sales, that still means PS3 is selling quite a bit less, which of course means they ship less.
Yes I guess you can stuff the channel so to speak, but I'm not sure what good it would do anybody, and I doubt Sony is interested in doing that for the sake of it.
They bumped 360 to 5.5m because sales supported it. Last year for example they shipped 4.3m in the 4thQ..so I mean they shipped 25% more this year? Not a huge amount..USA sales have only been up slightly, but according to their crowing Europe sales are up a lot, and theres also other regions to account form Canada, Australia, the far East outside Japan, etc.
But yes I do Greenburgs statement of 20m PS3's is a bit strange..PS's ship total to end September was 16.84m..so he's saying PS3 shipped 3.16m.
I'd imagine he's extrapolating from sales data what they THINK PS3 has shipped/sold. But the bottom line is MS should not know that..
But if you're expecting PS3 shipments to match 360 4Q, you're going to be disappointed as well.
I'd imagine he's extrapolating from sales data what they THINK PS3 has shipped/sold. But the bottom line is MS should not know that..
But if you're expecting PS3 shipments to match 360 4Q, you're going to be disappointed as well.
Ok Ill let people in on my secret weapon..if you want to see the ship numbers they're here:
http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=2426
It's ostensibly a Nintendo based article, but all the manufactorers numbers are in there..
http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=2426
It's ostensibly a Nintendo based article, but all the manufactorers numbers are in there..
Lucid_Dreamer
Veteran
I said the average sales per year were 9.3 million for Xbox 360 and 10 million for the PS3, based on the 28 million vs. 20 million numbers. In other words, 28 million divided by 3 years vs. 20 million divided by 2 years.
OK. I understand now.
I used the wikipedia numbers (seemingly from various sources, of course not VGChartz):
Japan 21,454,325 (as of October 1, 2008)
United States 42.5 million (as of August 1, 2008)
Europe 48 million (as of May 6, 2008)
The US is a larger factor in Xbox numbers than PS numbers though, as you say.
We won't know that until we see shipped numbers for Jan-Mar in April 09 at least.
That was posted in #10.
Sales aren't uniform, and the PS3 is still a two and a half months short of 2 years on sale in Europe.
DuckThor Evil
Legend
That's not how this works. Now I don't know exactly how channel stuffing works, meaning that I don't know why retailers would order too many units from the manufacturers. Usually they order the amount they expect to sell in a relatively short amount of time, as there is no point in keeping money sitting on a warehouse shelf. So retailer buys the consoles from the manufacturers and the demand of the console naturally affects the total amounts.
The console manufactures can react to these changes quite fast and adjust the production accordingly. You don't ship all your quarter's consoles at the beginning of the quarter, but gradually over the time period. in the case of Microsoft the price cut was most likely planned long time ago and they already had relatively good knowledge how it will affect the demand of the console. Sony However didn't have a price cut, so naturally the demand of the PS3 woulnd't just suddenly rise as much as it did for the X360.
It would rise more than Microsoft is predicting.
DuckThor Evil
Legend
Do you mean that the demand for the PS3 would rise more than what MS thinks it would?
If so then what makes you think so?
Because they are predicting a basically non-existent increase for the PS3's Q4, when we already know that the PS3 has had at least a 60% increase.
ShadowRunner
Veteran
Precisely why i dont agree with judging a consoles performance on LTD figures.
woundingchaney
Regular
Wouldnt that essentially be concept of "channel stuffing" orders are most likely done quarterly or on a similar time frame (maybe higher). Production and shipping could meet these demands rapidly. Potentially even overshipping to some extent.
An excellent instance of this would be in 2007 MS announced they had sold (sold to retail) 10 million 360s when the sold to consumer number was most likely around 7 million, leaving millions in the channel. Shortly after this MS lowered their second quarter estimates primarily because of so much product currently in the channel.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/ms-cuts-360-estimates-xbox-division-posts-289m-loss
Retail of course will only house so much inventory but given the vast amount of retail opportunity in a major territory or world wide this can relate to a considerable amount of units.
-Im not sure if this is what you are/were getting at.
i doubt they stuffed the channel at least here in the states. I remember last year seeing a ton of the halo 360 units in bestbuys , like whole palette fulls of them in some stores. This year in bestbuys i'm seeing a handfull of them and they are mostly elite .
I see mostly over stock on ps3 units and of course there are no wiis anywhere
Thats just what i've seen so who knows what its like in other areas
I see mostly over stock on ps3 units and of course there are no wiis anywhere
Thats just what i've seen so who knows what its like in other areas
DuckThor Evil
Legend
Well mostly my point was that the channel stuffing MS did in order to reach the 10 million units fast is not a standard method of supply chain management and I'm pretty sure MS had to offer some sort of benefits to retailers for their willingness to play along. Nobody likes to keep too large inventory. Basically we shouldn't expect that sort of channel stuffing, because it really doesn't make too much sense, as the numbers only look good till the next quarter like you pointed out.
To Laa-Yosh:
There was nothing in my post that stated that Microsoft is gonna fail. There was nothing in my post that stated that Belgium is an important country. We all now that their is only one country on the world that is important
But what I do know is that Microsoft has also did the same rebates in the Netherlands as in other countries. So it is genuine question to ask what will happen when the rebates is over without getting such arrogant remarks.
There was nothing in my post that stated that Microsoft is gonna fail. There was nothing in my post that stated that Belgium is an important country. We all now that their is only one country on the world that is important
But what I do know is that Microsoft has also did the same rebates in the Netherlands as in other countries. So it is genuine question to ask what will happen when the rebates is over without getting such arrogant remarks.
Last edited by a moderator:
As with any figures it just requires you look at them in the proper context. I believe trying to do launch-aligned comparisons is actually less useful since you are distorting reality by disregarding the differing market dynamics that existed at the times the consoles launched. IMO, doing launch-aligned comparisons is a shortcut to avoid doing a proper analysis.
What I've meant was that - as much as I like their beer, I've just had a Leffe - any anecdotes coming from Belgium are completely irrelevant and can't be used to speculate on other markets.
MS is going strong in Europe and whatever they do will still not cost them as much as the economy crysis and yen exchange range has cost Sony so far.
MS is going strong in Europe and whatever they do will still not cost them as much as the economy crysis and yen exchange range has cost Sony so far.
- Status
Similar threads
