BusinessWeek on Next Xbox and PlayStation 3 (DM will like)

[Nick Laslett]

I'm not in the market for a new console. With PSOne it was obvious there could be a significant improvement.

But the current generation seems good enough to me.

The Xbox and PS2 are hardly being pushed as it is. (They probably have 50% left to give.)

What are these next generation games going to offer that I don't already have?

Shiny graphics? Ragdoll physics? AI?

We already have these, or the developers will have figured out how to do this very soon.

I look at the best games of the current generation and I don't see where the improvements are going to come.

Hardware plateaus in the entertainment field are not unusual. CD, VHS, DVD, NTSC TV.

Why should console have to continually evolve? If the general public don't see the point they will stick with their existing hardware.

Will the Xbox disappear from the shelves when the Xbox2 appears? Or will retailers support 4 consoles and 3 handhelds? How will they fit it all in?

This next console tranisition is going to be as messy as Atari Jaguar & 3DO launches.

EA, Ubisoft, Activition, Konami, Namco, SquareEnix and Atari will all continue to focus on the exisiting consoles. There is too much money to be thrown away abandoning them to soon. EA have said as much in their Analysts phone calls.

This generation is here to stay and the next can wait until 2008 before the mass market is ready for something new.

(Hey, could be wrong, just my opinion.)

 

[London Geezer]

Well, one could say that 30% of next gen console's "power" will be good enough compared to 50% of today's ones.
I don't expect early code to use more than 30% of next gen consoles. For the first year at least. But that 30% should be enough to guarantee the jump in quality one would expect from a different generation of consoles.

 

[wco81]

Well PS2 sales are slowing down already. They may have peaked a year and a half ago.

Xbox sales have done well since the price cut but overall, the trend seems to be petering out.

They've all spent a lot of money on R&D for new hardware. If nothing else, they have to worry about their competitors coming out with new hardware so they all HAVE to come out with new consoles.

There's already a big gap in graphics between PC and consoles. So to say there's no room for improvement over current console graphics...

 

[London Geezer]

Well PS2 sales are slowing down already. They may have peaked a year and a half ago.

Xbox sales have done well since the price cut but overall, the trend seems to be petering out.

They've all spent a lot of money on R&D for new hardware. If nothing else, they have to worry about their competitors coming out with new hardware so they all HAVE to come out with new consoles.

There's already a big gap in graphics between PC and consoles. So to say there's no room for improvement over current console graphics...

To be honest, i'm playing Farcry at full detail (everything on VERY HIGH) and of course the detail is astounding, and the water looks yummy, but i have to admit, Jak2 looks so much better, and with seemingly more geometry, that i'm really left wondering (1) how much of my 5900U is idle while rendering PC games, (2) How come PC games still have trouble matching consoles geometry output, (3) how freaking good will next gen consoles game look.

 

[wco81]

I think if they could support higher resolutions, not just HDTV resolutions but better resolutions for PAL and NTSC so that you don't get the "jaggies" and the shimmering, it will win over a lot of mass market consumers who aren't into just the bleeding edge technology.

 

[Phil]

Nick:

Interesting view you've got there. To answer it from my point of view: Next generation fills me with excitement simply because I know that anything that will be shown will blow away current stuff out of the water. It happened when SNES replaced NES and when PS2 came an replaced PS (of course DC too). I remember feeling so excited when I finally got my "next generation hardware"...

Anyway, having that said, I am hoping to see new gameplay evolve due to more powerful hardware. More freedom in gaming, more realism. If GT4 is already that realistic, imagine what a team such as Polyphony would be capable of with hardware being 10x as powerful. Add wind to the track, realtime damage... weather.... Sure these things can all be achieved now too, but as we are nearing the end of the 5 year cycle, it gets harder and usually comes at a substitute for something else. Sure, there's still potential left in current consoles, but sadly, some devs will never get more out of the hardware simply because all they care is money and less about quality.

 

[London Geezer]

Nick:

Interesting view you've got there. To answer it from my point of view: Next generation fills me with excitement simply because I know that anything that will be shown will blow away current stuff out of the water. It happened when SNES replaced NES and when PS2 came an replaced PS (of course DC too). I remember feeling so excited when I finally got my "next generation hardware"...

Anyway, having that said, I am hoping to see new gameplay evolve due to more powerful hardware. More freedom in gaming, more realism. If GT4 is already that realistic, imagine what a team such as Polyphony would be capable of with hardware being 10x as powerful. Add wind to the track, realtime damage... weather.... Sure these things can all be achieved now too, but as we are nearing the end of the 5 year cycle, it gets harder and usually comes at a substitute for something else. Sure, there's still potential left in current consoles, but sadly, some devs will never get more out of the hardware simply because all they care is money and less about quality.

You know that real time damage has more to do with politics than hardware right.... That's why i'm somehow more looking forward to see a PS3/Xbox2/N5 version of Burnout...........

 

[wco81]

Well Bing Gordon of EA promised that everything on screen would be modeled right? So real physics instead of motion-captured animations in sports games maybe? Leading to more responsive control?

Somehow I doubt it but ball physics in sports games, never mind physics involving onscreen athletes, would work in real time. Doesn't it take supercomputers to model things like fluid dynamics and weather? Can't imagine human motion and collisions could be easier to model.

 

[Guden Oden]

but i have to admit, Jak2 looks so much better, and with seemingly more geometry, that i'm really left wondering (1) how much of my 5900U is idle while rendering PC games

Your 5900U is probably stalling a lot waiting for external memory, + pixel shader issues.

Still, J&D 2 slows down a lot whenever a flame heat shimmer fills a fair bit of the screen, that's curious methinks, as I believe that effect is basically just another framebuffer operation, which SHOULD be lightning fast. I sure know Zelda:WW doesn't slow down even when a torch fills the entire screen, and the GCs fillate is piddly in comparison to PS2.

Weird.

 

[London Geezer]

Somehow I doubt it but ball physics in sports games, never mind physics involving onscreen athletes, would work in real time. Doesn't it take supercomputers to model things like fluid dynamics and weather? Can't imagine human motion and collisions could be easier to model.

I think u're wrong. But that is a loooooong discussion.

Fluid dynamics might need lots of processing power, but they can "easily" (so to speak) be left to mathematical equations to work out and look realistic. Pop in the equation, the processor does its job, and off u go.
Like cloth physics.

On the other hand, there are not mathematical functions that can help us animate humans. that's why FFTSW's characters looked good but moved in a weird manner. Human animation is as far from being easy as it comes. Every movement needs to be tweaked by hand by the animator.

Trust me, it's not easy.

 

[MrSingh]

Here's the summary of the situation:

1. If MS launches Xbox2 early, PS3 will win because hardware that gets released later will ALWAYS be better (just like how NV3x is much better than R3xx)

2. If Xbox2 launches at the same time as PS3, Sony's marketing machine and established market share will overwhelm them.

3. If Xbox2 launches later than PS3, Sony will win.. just like how PS2 beat Xbox.

No matter what MS does, they will never beat Sony. Kutaragi is the alpha and the omega.

 

[Phil]

You know that real time damage has more to do with politics than hardware right.... That's why i'm somehow more looking forward to see a PS3/Xbox2/N5 version of Burnout...........

Of course, but not necessarely. In other words, distinct car manufacturers might not want to allow damage for marketing reasons, but Polyphony in particular has been quite vocal about hardware not being powerful enough to realize their vision in that area. In other words, that they'd only implement it if they can get it as good and realistic as they have envisioned. Hardware performance, especially 5 year old, is quite finite. New hardware is exciting solely because developers can push beyond what is obviously possible today. Heck, I can't wait - but I'd rather wait for something 'perfect' in 2007 than something rushed in late 2005.

 

[Fafalada]

Here's the summary of the situation:...

Wrong on all counts
It's a well known fact that weakest hw ALWAYS wins.
PSX3 will loose by default as MS will make sure to make Xenon weaker this time even if it launches after Sony.
Kutaragi Ken is too blinded by his visions to realize this simple fact of console economics that was also the only reason why PSX1 and PSX2 won their generations.

If Sega only had the foresight that PSX2 would turn so horribly weak and made DC less powerfull then PSX2, we could still enjoy their games without having to buy machines from $ony :? and Microshaft :? :? :?

 

[MrSingh]

$ony :? and Microshaft :? :? :?

I'm going to take that microshaft and stick it up my pony.

 

[Fafalada]

I'm going to take that microshaft and stick it up my pony.

Right now you just gave me this horrible mind image of one of those cute pink cartoon horsies from "My little Pony" being impaled with a large green X strap on d####.

I guess it's just as well, I should work instead of sleep today anyhow. :?

 

[Teasy]

That's what they said this time around... I'm still waiting to see this striking difference from the best PS2 games, namely Jak2, ZOE2 etc...

Well two things here. Firstly I do think there is a very noticable difference between the best looking games on PS2 and the best looking games on XBox and GC. That may not be as noticable to the average gamer, but its still quite noticable even to them from my experience. Secondly I think the graphical difference between PS2 and the other consoles would be even more evident if PS2 wasn't by far the most dominant system.

 

[London Geezer]

Here's the summary of the situation:...

Wrong on all counts
It's a well known fact that weakest hw ALWAYS wins.
PSX3 will loose by default as MS will make sure to make Xenon weaker this time even if it launches after Sony.
Kutaragi Ken is too blinded by his visions to realize this simple fact of console economics that was also the only reason why PSX1 and PSX2 won their generations.

If Sega only had the foresight that PSX2 would turn so horribly weak and made DC less powerfull then PSX2, we could still enjoy their games without having to buy machines from $ony :? and Microshaft :? :? :?

Faf, u're by far the funniest guy around here...


and can i comment on:

(just like how NV3x is much better than R3xx)

 

[Deadmeat4]

...

Kutaragi Ken is too blinded by his visions to realize this simple fact of console economics that was also the only reason why PSX1 and PSX2 won their generations.

It has nothing to do with hardware and every thing to do with marketing...
SCEI has a world-class marketing department, so they win...

 

[London Geezer]

Some people really need others to put
/sarcasm ON
at the beginning of their posts when they're being sarcastic.........

 

[London Geezer]

I was talking about Faf's sarcasm.... :| Meh...