And last but not least... MS financials
- Thread starter Acert93
- Start date
one said:
Oh I don't know who'll they'll come from, but I think MS sees the Halo franchise as their savior and they see how just one great title can turn things around...they'll do whatever it takes to get more multi-million sellers. I think a sequel to Fable, Kotor off the top of my head, if made with sufficient quality, and hyped just enough, can sell in the multi-millions.
I agree with one here. There's also those little dirty accounting tricks to be considered, to soften the losses upon paper & to the stockholders. MS isn't the only business that practises this. Regardless, MS is acheiving exactly what they had planned. Marketshare. Good relationships with 3rd parties, momentum, & NA mindshare. But I question Xenon's launch date, it is a definite gamble. Those consumers that just bought an XBX in the last 4th qtr. are going to be staring down the PSP, NDS, & a $300 Xenon in the following 4th qtr. Along with $100 price points of the XBX, PS2, & $79.99 GC in all likelihood lauching the most anticipated console title of this year. MS could've capitalized even moreso giving the XBX that additional market window, as some consumers may feel "ripped off."
It depends completely on E3, & the quality of their launch library I believe. But if the PS3 & the Revolution have an impressive showing, many may have the "wait & see" mentality. Conker won't reach a million, & neither will Forza.
It depends completely on E3, & the quality of their launch library I believe. But if the PS3 & the Revolution have an impressive showing, many may have the "wait & see" mentality. Conker won't reach a million, & neither will Forza.
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
As long as the Xbox still gets software support, then gamers will be satisfied. There's a reason why the people who bought it in 2004 did so in 2004: Price and game library. These aren't the early adopter types that would consider purchasing an Xenon at launch for $300 with a small games library. Sony sold a lot of PSOne's in 1999. Do you think all those people were pissed about the launch of PS2? Hardly. Same goes with Xbox/Xenon.
People who bought the xbox this fall did know they were buying an aging console. As Johnny said, they will not be the first to get in line for the xenon, so they can wait a few years before upgrading and they will not feel "ripped off".
Nonetheless, they are not the one which buy a ton of new software at full price. They most likely are looking for second hand games. So when these gamers will still be on board next year whereas the xbox early adopters will fly to the new consoles, I do not expect Xbox games sales to be as high as this year.
IMO, the xbox library (new E3 announced titles) will be very thin next fall.
Nonetheless, they are not the one which buy a ton of new software at full price. They most likely are looking for second hand games. So when these gamers will still be on board next year whereas the xbox early adopters will fly to the new consoles, I do not expect Xbox games sales to be as high as this year.
IMO, the xbox library (new E3 announced titles) will be very thin next fall.
It's a nice spike for them, but we all know Halo 2 is going be the last major spike for the Xbox in general, so with luck its lingering effects on Xbox Live will be positive, but I don't see them pulling a profit next quarter or anything similar for a while.
I also don't think it's a "gamble" for people to pick up an Xbox--they can see what it has and decide if it's worth it, and they basically know it's being phased out (though there may be those confused on the back-compat issue with Xenon... and they can join the club right now
), so whatever. There's plenty to see and play on the Xbox, and the main advantage from this end is that the software is all cheaper now.
I do not, however, think that the Xbox will be maintained for much when Xenon is in play. Microsoft itself will certainly be shifting its focus, and the platform doesn't have the kind of installed base the PS1 had or the PS2 will have when next generation is in full swing to still attract the new games.
Headlining titles will always shift generations, of course, but if it's outside of an easy port job or quick sequel to an old, fairly popular game...? I don't see much of it. If any old-generation time gets spent it will be aimed at the PS2 (or in the portable arena, at the GBA) and if "afterthought" development can bring something to Xbox (and to a lesser extent GameCube) then... sure.
The one advantage for the Xbox, at least, will be the Xbox Live link. It's gotten a popularity surge and will be a common factor for years, so for those Live users we'll likely see a disproportionate-to-now amount of Live-play games hit the after-market, as that will be the main attraction from then on. Even half-hearted sequels of somewhat popular games will bring in decent sales by only adding reasonable online modes--and there are many titles to choose from. Single-use taps, though, because developing another title would take too much time and people would be firmly lost in next generation.
But previous-generation consoles are NEVER a "ripped off" thing unless you're a stupid consumer. You know exactly what you're buying, and if you judge what you see worth the cash, then go for it! There really aren't going to be any surprises.
I also don't think it's a "gamble" for people to pick up an Xbox--they can see what it has and decide if it's worth it, and they basically know it's being phased out (though there may be those confused on the back-compat issue with Xenon... and they can join the club right now
), so whatever. There's plenty to see and play on the Xbox, and the main advantage from this end is that the software is all cheaper now. I do not, however, think that the Xbox will be maintained for much when Xenon is in play. Microsoft itself will certainly be shifting its focus, and the platform doesn't have the kind of installed base the PS1 had or the PS2 will have when next generation is in full swing to still attract the new games.
Headlining titles will always shift generations, of course, but if it's outside of an easy port job or quick sequel to an old, fairly popular game...? I don't see much of it. If any old-generation time gets spent it will be aimed at the PS2 (or in the portable arena, at the GBA) and if "afterthought" development can bring something to Xbox (and to a lesser extent GameCube) then... sure.
The one advantage for the Xbox, at least, will be the Xbox Live link. It's gotten a popularity surge and will be a common factor for years, so for those Live users we'll likely see a disproportionate-to-now amount of Live-play games hit the after-market, as that will be the main attraction from then on. Even half-hearted sequels of somewhat popular games will bring in decent sales by only adding reasonable online modes--and there are many titles to choose from. Single-use taps, though, because developing another title would take too much time and people would be firmly lost in next generation.
But previous-generation consoles are NEVER a "ripped off" thing unless you're a stupid consumer. You know exactly what you're buying, and if you judge what you see worth the cash, then go for it! There really aren't going to be any surprises.
Buying and old console is agreat deal. You pay less money for a console with an established library of games.
Instead of paying $300+ for the console and having to WAIT for games...
You get to pay $100-$150 and pay $20 or less for AAA games older than a year and also get the benefit of the most mature games, and most quantity, in the last years. And lets not forget that there always remains a trickle of games released after the new consoles are released. With rising development costs this may become a much more normal process as well. And it is good for developers too... e.g. after 2 years of the PS2 release there was what? 20M PS2? And almost 100M PS? 5:1 ratio... and while a lot of enthusiests move on to the new consoles there are a lot of value minded gamers on the old consoles. This is why games like Madden shipped all the way to 2004 on the PS I believe.
The only people old consoles are bad for are us, the graphics obsessed!
Instead of paying $300+ for the console and having to WAIT for games...
You get to pay $100-$150 and pay $20 or less for AAA games older than a year and also get the benefit of the most mature games, and most quantity, in the last years. And lets not forget that there always remains a trickle of games released after the new consoles are released. With rising development costs this may become a much more normal process as well. And it is good for developers too... e.g. after 2 years of the PS2 release there was what? 20M PS2? And almost 100M PS? 5:1 ratio... and while a lot of enthusiests move on to the new consoles there are a lot of value minded gamers on the old consoles. This is why games like Madden shipped all the way to 2004 on the PS I believe.
The only people old consoles are bad for are us, the graphics obsessed!
Li Mu Bai said:
Well i happened to have bought MGS2 and FF7 when i got my PS2, cause they were games i missed from the previous generation, and i wanted to play them. But i wouldn't say that i bought PS2 primarily for backward compatibility, it was a nice bonus, in a "cross-generation-let's-go-back-to-the-huge-games-we've-missed-in-the-last-generation" sort of way.
I might just add one more thing... having been a PSone owner as well with an extensive library of games... buying a PS2 and knowing that it would be backwards-compatible, gave me the option of selling my PSone but keeping my library of games. Even if I wouldn't have been able to sell it (or wouldn't have bothered), I at least have the option available to go back and play games on my PS2 without having to get my PSone (that, at that point didn't function properly anyway).
Having backwards-compatibility means added value. Existing libraries keep existing through the new consoles. I still play PSone games (various Final Fantasy's, Metal Gear Solid etc) and I will probably continue to want to play some PS2 games even on PS3. Since the PS2 at some point will cease to work properly, it's a great thing when the software can live on through newer hardware.
Having backwards-compatibility means added value. Existing libraries keep existing through the new consoles. I still play PSone games (various Final Fantasy's, Metal Gear Solid etc) and I will probably continue to want to play some PS2 games even on PS3. Since the PS2 at some point will cease to work properly, it's a great thing when the software can live on through newer hardware.
from the yahoo story:
"You can't punch a hole in these numbers," said Charles Di Bona, an analyst at independent research firm Sanford C. Bernstein & Co."
it's same charles di bona who was speaking about xbox being profitable two years ago... from the same research firm who was one of the two last to recommend enron, just before their bankruptcy, and was part of a microsoft "case study" (independency ?)
look at this old topic
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3557
"You can't punch a hole in these numbers," said Charles Di Bona, an analyst at independent research firm Sanford C. Bernstein & Co."
it's same charles di bona who was speaking about xbox being profitable two years ago... from the same research firm who was one of the two last to recommend enron, just before their bankruptcy, and was part of a microsoft "case study" (independency ?)
look at this old topic
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3557
what we know:
there is a strong possibility that, for a given period of *three consecutive monthes*, the xbox made some profit.
that the profits for these 3 monthes for the home & entertainment division don't even recoup the losses for the preceding 3 months, and are next to nothing compared to the massive losses since the xbox debut. the possibility of xbox breaking even remains as unrealistic as ever.
what we can reasonably expect:
another 3 months period of profit with the release of halo 3.
there is a strong possibility that, for a given period of *three consecutive monthes*, the xbox made some profit.
that the profits for these 3 monthes for the home & entertainment division don't even recoup the losses for the preceding 3 months, and are next to nothing compared to the massive losses since the xbox debut. the possibility of xbox breaking even remains as unrealistic as ever.
what we can reasonably expect:
another 3 months period of profit with the release of halo 3.
Magnum PI said:
The possibility is so strong, it's inevitable!I know Halo 2 had a ton to do with the profit, but look at the numbers again. There's a $400-$500 million difference between the same quarter last year and this year. Even at 6.4 million copies and MS making $30/copy, Halo 2 doesn't even come up to half that difference.
A lot more is going for MS than Halo 2. The facts prove it.
Microsoft are being purposely inefficient in order to destory the competition, thats bad for the industry as a whole.
Later on after they destroy the competition they will find ways to recoup their billions back, thats when it gets serious. This is bad these guys are effectively dumping product.
Later on after they destroy the competition they will find ways to recoup their billions back, thats when it gets serious. This is bad these guys are effectively dumping product.
Nightz said:
Errmm... Tell me again how you got to that thought?
Microsoft are being purposedly inefficient in order to destroy the competition? How does that work again? Cause if anything, their inefficiencies will take them down.
Well they have to destroy the competition first, and my guess is that "inefficiency" is not their No1 tool.
Speaking of possibilities:
There is a strong possibility Company A raised its sales target for console N in response to a strong demand and saw its profits rise.
There is a strong possibility Company B lowered it its sales target for console M if face of slumping demand while its profits dropped.
There is a strong possibility that fanboys will paint this dynamic as utterly ruinous for company A and orgasmically awesome for company B.
There is a strong possibility Company A raised its sales target for console N in response to a strong demand and saw its profits rise.
There is a strong possibility Company B lowered it its sales target for console M if face of slumping demand while its profits dropped.
There is a strong possibility that fanboys will paint this dynamic as utterly ruinous for company A and orgasmically awesome for company B.