AMD Console Wins for 2017?

[DuckThor Evil]

4 - It sure sounds like the third design win is a games console.


Yeah I'm sticking with the NX having an AMD SoC.

There have been rumours about MS Surface all in one PC coming up later this year and also the Apple rumours, so I think AMD still has plenty of room for that last win. I'd be surprised at this point if NX doesn't end up with nVidia tech.

 

[Wynix]

I think it might be a Chinese company, like Tencent, making a cheap box that will play all their games and encouraging others to build with their specifications as the target.
I wish Nintendo would just announce the damn NX already.

 

[Shortbread]

indeed.
They've been clear that they are looking to broaden their reach, so this is understandable. It may not be entirely about the next console specifically.

It should be fairly assumed that they have more than 1 xbox in design but still need to choose just one to deploy with. Timing and price points are going to be a big part of that discussion of which variant they will green light I imagine. I would hope that they have their ideal feature set locked down by now.

Do you remember this article?

During AMD's Q1 2016 earnings call on Thursday, executives from AMD estimated a 15 percent revenue increase in Q2 2016, plus or minus 3 points, and they cited three semi-custom system-on-chip (SOC) "wins" as the "larger driver" for that revenue. AMD estimates that these SOCs will bring in $1.5 billion in revenue "over the next three or four years." At least one of those three SOC deliveries will begin "ramping" in the second half of this year, with all of those SOCs launching by 2017.

PlayStation 4 Neo and Nintendo NX are likely for two of those SOCs. Who's third?

So we had Pro and XB1-X comeabout and we know Nintendo (Switch) went with Nvidia. The third SOC more than likely is PS5 from all the recent Navi talk. So, at the moment it seems Microsoft could have possibly went in another direction. And there are some rumors of Intel being a part of the next-generation of consoles. We shall see...

 

[Shortbread]

Just think about that in relation to the PC market. What's the RAM in a high end PC like? You're looking at a grand at least for that sort of memory. That's not going to make it's way down to 1/10th of its price in a couple of years.

As long as there's fast NAND on there, 16 GBs would be plenty.

I paid over $1100 for 64GB of 3600 memory for my AMD rig... so yeah, that's not happening.

 

[anexanhume]

Do you remember this article?




So we had Pro and XB1-X comeabout and we know Nintendo (Switch) went with Nvidia. The third SOC more than likely is PS5 from all the recent Navi talk. So, at the moment it seems Microsoft could have possibly went in another direction. And there are some rumors of Intel being a part of the next-generation of consoles. We shall see...

That was long enough ago that it’s possible Microsoft hadn’t committed yet.

 

[mrcorbo]

So we had Pro and XB1-X comeabout and we know Nintendo (Switch) went with Nvidia. The third SOC more than likely is PS5 from all the recent Navi talk. So, at the moment it seems Microsoft could have possibly went in another direction. And there are some rumors of Intel being a part of the next-generation of consoles. We shall see...

You forgot about the One S whose APU had more changes than just a die-shrink and would make a lot more sense as a significant driver of revenue in 2016 than anything to do with the PS5 would.

 

[Shortbread]

That was long enough ago that it’s possible Microsoft hadn’t committed yet.

Yes. But we’re only talking about a year and 10 months here. It doesn't seem plausible that Microsoft wouldn't have a clue of AMD's upcoming architectures during that timeperiod, especially after XB1-X SOC design. It seems more plausible that Microsoft's was (or is) weighing their options more for the next-generation of Xbox.

 

[iroboto]

Do you remember this article?
So we had Pro and XB1-X comeabout and we know Nintendo (Switch) went with Nvidia. The third SOC more than likely is PS5 from all the recent Navi talk. So, at the moment it seems Microsoft could have possibly went in another direction. And there are some rumors of Intel being a part of the next-generation of consoles. We shall see...

As per MrCorbo note, it's probably referring to X1S as being the 3rd SoC there.

But, to those leaving the door to nvidia. I guess of the 3, MS would have the easiest time changing to nvidia and support BC for their older AMD hardware. It's just a _lot_ of work and I'm unsure of the payoff there for them to do it. It would probably be more cost effective to MS to stay with AMD customize the hell out of the chip, and design a more powerful product than it would be to switch manufacturers.

There could be gains moving to nvidia, but the losses would be appreciable as well.

 

[Shortbread]

You forgot about the One S whose APU had more changes than just a die-shrink and would make a lot more sense as a significant driver of revenue in 2016 than anything to do with the PS5 would.

I didn't forget about shrinks. I was taking into account shrinks being apart of the original contracts considerations for XB1/PS4. It doesn't make no sense to lock yourself into a [large] SOC design and cost, when you know the process will mature and be more efficient. That being said, I'm not saying your wrong... just saying, Sony or Microsoft probably had those (obvious foreseen shrinks) apart of the original agreements.

 

[mrcorbo]

I didn't forget about shrinks. I was taking into account shrinks being apart of the original contracts considerations for XB1/PS4. It doesn't make no sense to lock yourself into a [large] SOC design and cost, when you know the process will mature and be more efficient. That being said, I'm not saying your wrong... just saying, Sony or Microsoft probably had those (obvious foreseen shrinks) apart of the original agreements.

It was more than a shrink. They upgraded functional blocks on the chip.

 

[Shortbread]

As per MrCorbo note, it's probably referring to X1S as being the 3rd SoC there.

But, to those leaving the door to nvidia. I guess of the 3, MS would have the easiest time changing to nvidia and support BC for their older AMD hardware. It's just a _lot_ of work and I'm unsure of the payoff there for them to do it. It would probably be more cost effective to MS to stay with AMD customize the hell out of the chip, and design a more powerful product than it would be to switch manufacturers.

There could be gains moving to nvidia, but the losses would be appreciable as well.

I'm just looking at it from another point of view that 'everyone and their momma' had Nintendo's next system (Switch as we know it today) pegged on using AMD hardware. Buuuuttttt...

Anyhow, I'm hoping for another shakeup in the console industry. It makes for better competition amongst CPU/GPU hardware vendors.

 

[BRiT]

So we had Pro and XB1-X comeabout and we know Nintendo (Switch) went with Nvidia. The third SOC more than likely is

Xbox One S.

 

[dobwal]

You forgot about the One S whose APU had more changes than just a die-shrink and would make a lot more sense as a significant driver of revenue in 2016 than anything to do with the PS5 would.

Agreed. AMD was probably referring to the Pro and 16 nm S and Slim. Regardless if they are shrinks or tweaked designs, new chips are going to come with higher price tags until the research and design costs are recovered. Thus leading to an uptick in revenue.

 

[bitsandbytes]

Agreed. AMD was probably referring to the Pro and 16 nm S and Slim. Regardless if they are shrinks or tweaked designs, new chips are going to come with higher price tags until the research and design costs are recovered. Thus leading to an uptick in revenue.

I'm not sure it makes sense when by this metric of Pro, One S and One X being the three "wins", what about PS4 slim?

I was thinking the third "win" could be that new Atari!

 

[dobwal]

I'm not sure it makes sense when by this metric of Pro, One S and One X being the three "wins", what about PS4 slim?

I was thinking the third "win" could be that new Atari!

The three wins were to be revenue drivers for AMD in Q2 2016. During that time, the S, Slim and Pro would of been in the middle of ramping up production for their launch dates.

 

[bitsandbytes]

The three wins were to be revenue drivers for AMD in Q2 2016. During that time, the S, Slim and Pro would of been in the middle of ramping up production for their launch dates.

OK, but again what about PS4 slim? Why is everyone ignoring that but not the One S? I would think both of these shrinks would have been a part of the original contracts?

 

[dobwal]

OK, but again what about PS4 slim? Why is everyone ignoring that but not the One S? I would think both of these shrinks would have been a part of the original contracts?

Why would AMD, Sony or MS want to negotiate the prices of shrinks at the start of a gen? AMD isn’t a fab. It would only have an inkling of what a 2016 16 nm finfet based chip would cost pre 2013.

A 20nm Xbox one SOC was once in development so was an X design targeting a 2016 release with Pro like performance. It seems that level of flexibility isn’t burdened by contracts negotiated well before hardware launches or what could be considered a design win.

 

[Shortbread]

Xbox One S.

Possibility. But it doesn't necessarily mean its true.

OK, but again what about PS4 slim? Why is everyone ignoring that but not the One S? I would think both of these shrinks would have been a part of the original contracts?

Exactly. Sony and Microsoft aren't noobs to production improvements made over time. Anything related to shrinks (better and more efficient chips) would have been factored in during the original contract XB1/PS4 agreements (including any additional monetary changes).

 

[bitsandbytes]

Why would AMD, Sony or MS want to negotiate the prices of shrinks at the start of a gen? AMD isn’t a fab. It would only have an inkling of what a 2016 16 nm finfet based chip would cost pre 2013.

I might be wrong but I thought every time a new node comes along (in this case 28nm>16nm) the chip/APU needs to be re-designed and AMD would do that work for MS/Sony? TSMC then make the chip.

I can't say how contracts are done but surely some sort of plan is in place for the inevitable re-designs/shrinks?

 

[dobwal]

I might be wrong but I thought every time a new node comes along (in this case 28nm>16nm) the chip/APU needs to be re-designed and AMD would do that work for MS/Sony? TSMC then make the chip.

I can't say how contracts are done but surely some sort of plan is in place for the inevitable re-designs/shrinks?

AMD can’t start a design until TMSC provide design rules for the node. It’s not as simple as handing TMSC a design and saying, “Here, fab this.”