All purpose Sales and Sales Rumours and Anecdotes [2020 Edition]

[Scott_Arm]

I don’t see how this is a design for cost reduction - rather it’s a reduced cost (for what it offers) design from the start. Not one heck of a lot you can do to reduce cost now other than wait for the components themselves to get cheaper due to improvements in manufacturing. It will happen, but not at the pace of yore. It’s not a given that, say, a shift to 5nm lithography in 2023 would reduce costs by a lot. NAND will slowly get cheaper over time but it may well be that Sony will simply leverage this to improve their margins a bit.
It may well be that by the time process technology has evolved to a point which used to motivate a mid-life redesign, it’s time for a new system entirely. We’ll see how Sony chooses to play this, but there is nothing I’m aware of on the horizon that would reduce either cost or power draw (allowing a new enclosure) by a major factor. What would that be?

Did PS4 ever get a die shrink? I would think at this point the cost of doing a shrink is so big that it's not worth it.

 

[Cardassian Bob]

Did PS4 ever get a die shrink? I would think at this point the cost of doing a shrink is so big that it's not worth it.

PS4 slim shrunk from 28 to 16nm.

 

[Scott_Arm]

PS4 slim shrunk from 28 to 16nm.

wow I forgot these things started at 28 nm!

 

[eastmen]

wow I forgot these things started at 28 nm!

7 years is a long time

 

[chris1515]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1347195419714056192

Impressive

 

[chris1515]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1348572374447353856

PS4 and XB1 sales were very low.

 

[Shortbread]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1347195419714056192

Impressive

Sometimes I don't know if I hate or simply admire Nintendo's way of doing business.

 

[Goodtwin]

Nintendo Switch is in its prime and the PS4/X1 were in their twilight year. PS5 and Xbox Series models were too limited in supply to make up for 10 months of domination by the Nintendo Switch. Nintendo has caught lightening in a bottle again, the Switch concept has been very popular with consumers. Regardless if you are unimpressed with the hardware you cannot deny that it has been a very popular product on the market. Switch is so different from other consoles that it makes a lot of sense that many consumers will choose to buy both a Switch and a home console from either Sony or Microsoft. Switch is a supplemental gaming device for a ton of Sony and Microsoft gamers. I would bet the percentages of people who purchase both an Xbox and PlayStation are very low.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Nintendo Switch is in its prime and the PS4/X1 were in their twilight year. PS5 and Xbox Series models were too limited in supply to make up for 10 months of domination by the Nintendo Switch. Nintendo has caught lightening in a bottle again, the Switch concept has been very popular with consumers.

And Animal Crossing and COVID-19 certainly helped demand as well, particularly if you're a parent working from home. You may not want the kids on the TV all day if you are working in that room but a wholesome game about of bunch of greedy racoons that the kids can play on a device in their bedroom? Magic.

 

[eastmen]

I don’t see how this is a design for cost reduction - rather it’s a reduced cost (for what it offers) design from the start. Not one heck of a lot you can do to reduce cost now other than wait for the components themselves to get cheaper due to improvements in manufacturing. It will happen, but not at the pace of yore. It’s not a given that, say, a shift to 5nm lithography in 2023 would reduce costs by a lot. NAND will slowly get cheaper over time but it may well be that Sony will simply leverage this to improve their margins a bit.
It may well be that by the time process technology has evolved to a point which used to motivate a mid-life redesign, it’s time for a new system entirely. We’ll see how Sony chooses to play this, but there is nothing I’m aware of on the horizon that would reduce either cost or power draw (allowing a new enclosure) by a major factor. What would that be?

Almost as if simply moving to a modern more efficient apu would be better than trying to squeeze more blood from a stone.

We will have to see how both companies move forward to 5nm and then 3nm since apparently TSMC is going to start this year with 3nm production.

 

[chris1515]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1352524332812136449

In france 2020 is the worst year since 2005 for Microsoft for console sales and the worst console sales of all time for Sony. Problem is PS4 and Xbox One sales. The MSRP 299 euros is a problem. I think 199 euros MSRP will never arrive again on Playstation and Xbox console because of process cost increasing a lot. This is probably too expensive to do 7nm PS4 super slim and it will not help the MSRP to reach 199 euros.

Main takeaways :

• PS4 has sold 5,98 million units in France as of January 2021. PS3 never got past 5 million.
• Xbox One has sold less than 1,8 million units in total.
• Both consoles have seen a stark decline in the territory. It is Microsoft's worst year since 2005, while Sony has never sold less consoles in history.
• Nintendo Switch, on the other hand, is enjoying unprecedented success with a 17% increase YoY.
• Sony has roughly 48% market share in France (PS4+PS5), Nintendo has 37% (Switch only).

The author attributes this decline to the lack of price cuts for PS4, which is still at a recommended price of 300€. Which wouldn't matter much nowadays as Sony doesn't supply PS4 anymore.

More in the article, for those who can read read it.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

In france 2020 is the worst year since 2005 for Microsoft for console sales and the worst console sales of all time for Sony. Problem is PS4 and Xbox One sales. The MSRP 299 euros is a problem. I think 199 euros MSRP will never arrive again on Playstation and Xbox console because of process cost increasing a lot.

The reason is not technological, it's economical: inflation. 199 today isn't what 199 was ten years ago.

 

[chris1515]

The reason is not technological, it's economical: inflation. 199 today isn't what 199 was ten years ago.

If they were able to release a PS4 super slim in 7nm, I will be sure it would be 199 euros or worst case 249 euros. The PS4 is the first console Playstation console to have only two node process version 28 nm and 16nm. The Ps3 had three node process version 90nm, 65nm and 45 nm...

 

[liams]

One thing to keep in mind is that as the process node gets smaller the cost per transistor is converging to a fixed price, so although you would get a more power efficient processor it wouldnt be any cheaper, especially accounting for the costs of redesigning the processor for the smaller nodes, and the fact that the smaller nodes are very supply constrained right now, and will likely remain that way.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

The XSS will be $199 euros at some point.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

If they were able to release a PS4 super slim in 7nm, I will be sure it would be 199 euros or worst case 249 euros. The PS4 is the first console Playstation console to have only two node process version 28 nm and 16nm.

I think because 16nm to 7nm is a significant redesign and this is expensive so Sony would need to be certain they would sell an overwhelming number of consoles to justify that cost and to sell at a lower price. Those cost issues aside, Sony said their goal is to transition the player base over to PS5 as soon as possible.

If you check the timelines, PS3's Cell dropped fairly rapidly from 90nm to 65nm to 45nm by 2008 - two years after the US/Japan launch and about 18 months after the EU/RoW launch. Sony were not node shrinking Cell or RSX after PS4 was announced to the best of my recollection.

 

[chris1515]

I think because 16nm to 7nm is a significant redesign and this is expensive so Sony would need to be certain they would sell an overwhelming number of consoles to justify that cost and to sell at a lower price. Those cost issues aside, Sony said their goal is to transition the player base over to PS5 as soon as possible.

If you check the timelines, PS3's Cell dropped fairly rapidly from 90nm to 65nm to 45nm by 2008 - two years after the US/Japan launch and about 18 months after the EU/RoW launch. Sony were not node shrinking Cell or RSX after PS4 was announced to the best of my recollection.

But at the end it is an economic problem if it was not so expensive, I am sure they would goes for the 199 dollars crowds and another things the end tail user probably spend much less than other players. I don't think it is very profitable.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

But at the end it is an economic problem if it was not so expensive, I am sure they would goes for the 199 dollars crowds and another things the end tail user probably spend much less than other players. I don't think it is very profitable.

You're fixated on the number (199) and ignoring inflation. You may as well ask why everything costs more in 2020 than it did in 2010 or 2000. It's because of inflation. Although some technological costs have dropped relative to their equivalents 10-20 years ago, inflation offsets much of this. Take for example the US dollar it's had 20% hike since 2010. On a $199 device that's almost $40.

 

[chris1515]

You're fixated on the number (199) and ignoring inflation. You may as well ask why everything costs more in 2020 than it did in 2010 or 2000. It's because of inflation. Although some technological costs have dropped relative to their equivalents 10-20 years ago, inflation offsets much of this. Take for example the US dollar it's had 20% hike since 2010. On a $199 device that's almost $40.

It is 40 dollars but at the end the platform holder does the profit on games and MTX sales. 199 is a very good entry point for late adopter. At the end late adopter will not enter in PS4 ecosystem or maybe they buy refurbished hardware.

And I said 249 dollars could be a good entry point too. I think for an economical point of view process node reduction begins to be less efficient and if I remember well Microsoft express some concern.

EDIT: And in many country salary grows slower than inflation

https://www.lesechos.fr/economie-fr...salaires-ne-compensent-plus-linflation-136593

I think this is probably what will made the cloud gaming has the alternative to consoles out of a niche of core gamer.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

It is 40 dollars but at the end the platform holder does the profit on games and MTX sales.

So what's changed? Inflation.

199 is a very good entry point for late adopter. At the end late adopter will not enter in PS4 ecosystem or maybe they buy refurbished hardware.

199 would be a. great price but INFLATION. Your 199 would have been more like 167 ten years ago. Were consoles 167 ten years ago?

EDIT: And in many country salary grows slower than inflation

What people get paid has no correlation to what things cost.