You think it has a chance of outselling CoD on just XB1/X360/PC? It's JUST excluding PS3/PS4... only ~90 million people. I agree with BB... I don't think it has a chance.
When did I say that the PS4's bundle sales count towards the standalone SKU?I was referring to Titanfall with that quote, and giving another reason why people weren't buying the standalone sku.
If you want to continue to believe that revenue is factored into their rankings, then go ahead. Personally, I think that's ridiculous.
If retail shelves were stacked with PS4s, there would be more PS4s available online. Anecdotal evidence is enough for me to believe that at least many parts of the country currently don't have much (if any) PS4s in stock. The fact is, amazon was one of 2-3 retailers that were selling PS4s, and I believe the ONLY one that was selling the standalone unit. So there were a lot of reasons why people were buying PS4s from amazon, whereas there were NO incentives in buying Titanfall from amazon. A lot of people don't want to pre-order games from online retailers, because it usually takes longer to ship the game, so that's a big reason NOT to buy from amazon.
Are you honestly trying to tell me that there is just as much reason to buy Titanfall from Amazon than there is a PS4, considering the supply situation of both items?
Ok lets just make this simple:
Do you think Titanfall XBO (not including the hardware bundle) will sell significantly more copies than PS4 hardware does in March?
If so, then all these other issues are tangential. There's no particular reason Amazon should have a greater share of national PS4 sales than national Titanfall sales. Thus the logical conclusion is Amazon would sell more Titanfall copies than PS4 hardware.
You note "every online retailer" has Titanfall, vs "only 2-3" that had/have PS4. Yet there are many counterarguments to this. Over the month, maybe "every online retailer" (meaning basically the ~10 or so major ones tracked by nowinstock) will have had PS4 stock in. More importantly these are dwarfed in terms of impact by literally thousands of brick and mortar outlets nationwide. Also, I suspect Amazon's share of online sales dwarfs others, so those other online retailers dont matter too much anyway imo.
I'm assuming Titanfall may sell 1 million, and PS4 may sell 300k in March? If that holds up or anything like it, it's obviously a 2 or 3-1 units edge.
The next issue is concentration, somehow were all Amazon's PS4 sales, while presumably lesser overall, so concentrated within a few days it still would beat Titanfall for #1? I disagree, because we know software sales are extremely front loaded. A great amount of Titanfall's sales should occur right around launch, therefore it should be equally or more concentrated as PS4, which if anything might have been falling off after being on sale for 5 days.
Now I will say, if it ends up lets say Titanfall only sells 600k standalone (maybe possible due to the hardware bundles) and PS4 does 400K+ in March, those numbers are close enough you'd have an argument that at any given retailer PS4 might well win. But if it's something like 1m vs 400K, the argument is difficult imo.
And I sense you think I somehow invented the revenue weighing theory just for this argument. No, it just always struck me as odd how say, $500 consoles or iPad's or whatever could be outselling much cheaper items in unit terms. Titanfall is $60, PS4 is $400, in this instance. But you could have PC software on sale for $5. I am not convinced they weight by revenue, but it does seem possible.
