All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[djskribbles]

They are saying Xbox One sold less than 150k

That puts the PS4 ~290-300k. I was way off for both (405k, 265k respectively).

The PS4 was still heavily supply constrained for half of the month. Even when availability was better, it wasn't readily available everywhere. I think it could have easily passed 400k if the situation was more like the latter part of January for the whole month.

 

[DieH@rd]

Geoff: Also, I'm told by Sony that @tombraider on PS4 outsold the Xbox One version 2:1
https://twitter.com/geoffkeighley/status/434104116193685504

 

[betan]

If so that puts PS4 at under 300k, which isn't spectacular supply.

Yeah, I'd consider anything under 400k fishy.

 

[DieH@rd]

February NPD will have similar results. PS4 is selling well and store shelves are almost constantly empty [while Xboxes are avaiable everywhere].

March... is unknown. Both consoles are getting one big exclusive [well Titanfall is also oldgen+pc].

 

[AlNom]

Gosh, nearly 2:1 in NPD suggests 3:1 or more worldwide to me.

Indeed... holy cow.

 

[djskribbles]

You can't look too much into the launch sales numbers because these were the first launches that weren't heavily supply constrained. We'll have to see how well they sustain sales. So far, it seems like the PS4 is doing a much better job.

Quoting myself for reference. I think the huge launch sales had a big effect on the January sales, so I'm not worried about the low numbers. And again, the PS4's supply issues weren't any better until the second half of January.

Gosh, nearly 2:1 in NPD suggests 3:1 or more worldwide to me.

Which is what I expected when the supply issues get sorted out (which is not even the case yet with the PS4). I still think that the XB1 will be fine, but they need to get the price down. Titanfall or any software they release won't narrow the gap much, if at all at $500.

 

[djskribbles]

I don't buy the 143k figure. That would be a low number for XB1 by any measure and a low number for the PS4 even at 2x. If Sony sold 300k in Jan and shipped ~900k in Dec, where are the other 600k consoles? They certainly are not on the shelves. Did they shut down production or redirect them elsewhere?

I'm not sure how production/shipping works. But I'm guessing Sony had a bunch of units that were just manufactured that were originally planned to be shipped/sold in January. Once Sony realized how big the demand was and how fast they were selling, they took some of those units and sold them in December. They did sell more than expected up to the end of December.

The PS4 could have sold more if it hadn't been supply constrained for half of the month. So I guess the numbers are believable, though they are lower than I expected by ~100k.

 

[DrJay24]

What happened to rumors that they were producing 1.4m a month then? Surely they are not selling 1.1m elsewhere are they? They must be making 500k a month or have stockpiles somewhere.

 

[djskribbles]

What happened to rumors that they were producing 1.4m a month then? Surely they are not selling 1.1m elsewhere are they? They must be making 500k a month or have stockpiles somewhere.

I think they're possibility allocating a higher percentage to Europe/Australasia than they were before (which I think was rumored to be 60% to the US in December), as well as stockpiling for the launch in Japan.

And I think the 1.4M rumor was based on the fact that they sold 4.2M (which again was higher than expected) wasn't it? Wasn't the original rumor ~1M?

 

[DrJay24]

Just what Pachter said based on "people who knew", but maybe it is high or a guess. Crazy that Sony could not muster up at least 500k for NA in Jan.

 

[Rangers]

Here's some first January's for compare

Originally Posted by Aquamarine

OG Xbox - 127K first January

Xbox 360 - 249K first January

Xbox One - approx. 143K first January


At least it's doing better than the original Xbox! That's something...right?





GameCube - 62K
PS2 - 248K
Wii - 436K

1st January PS3 - 244K

1st January 360 - 249K

1st January Wii U - 57K

1st January Xbox One - approx. 143K

 

[Rangers]

creamsuger has started dropping his crazy hints, for one he hinted either PS3 or 360 i below Wii U??? It's odd.

And

TRDE: total < 85k

Seems horrible. Maybe gaming is doooomed.

 

[Xbat]

creamsuger has started dropping his crazy hints, for one he hinted either PS3 or 360 i below Wii U??? It's odd.

And



Seems horrible. Maybe gaming is doooomed.

So gaming is doomed because a overpriced weak console and a year old port doesn't do well. Ok

 

[DrJay24]

Five days and 85k for a $60 port is not bad.

 

[Rangers]

So gaming is doomed because a overpriced weak console and a year old port doesn't do well. Ok

Well more like:

Jan 2007

Wii - 436,000
360 - 294,000
PS3 - 244,000
PS2 - 299,000
NDS - 239,000
PSP - 211,000
GBA - 179,000
GC - 34,000

jan 2014 (mostly just wildass estimates but probably not far off)

ps4: ~280k
x1: 143k
3ds: 130k
ps3: 60k
360: 50k
wii u: 55k
wii: 25k
vita: 25k

 

[Xbat]

The ps2 was like only 6 years old compared to this time where the current gen is pushing 8 years and well mobile phones did eat into handheld sales.

 

[BoardBonobo]

Just what Pachter said based on "people who knew", but maybe it is high or a guess. Crazy that Sony could not muster up at least 500k for NA in Jan.

They must be stockpiling quite a few for the Japan launch. That has all the makings of being every bit as successful.

 

[xcom_cheetah]

Well more like:



jan 2014 (mostly just wildass estimates but probably not far off)
ps4: ~280k
x1: 143k
3ds: 130k
ps3: 60k
360: 50k
wii u: 55k
wii: 25k
vita: 25k

How can PS3 be suddenly above XB360?

 

[Rangers]

Latest GAF derived hardware numbers (these at least I think are solid)

PS4 - 271K
XB1 - 141K
3DS ~97k
PS3 ~53.5K
Wii U ~49K
360 ~48.5K
Vita < 17k

With sales so low, 360 may never overtake Wii in the states.

Rangers is just stressing out because of the 2:1 news...

That's not my motivation guy, things are lookin ugly. Though you can spin a few ways, as usual stolen from GAF discussions, Sony/MS consoles combined (PS4+XB1+PS3+360=~512k) are still somewhat comparable to past January numbers of Sony/MS consoles combined, if not exemplary. You can look at it as Wii audience moving on plus the total collapse of handhelds then, maybe?

You can also note PS4/XB1 just came off relatively gangbusters Nov/Dec's that pretty much decimated all prior launch sales as far as I know. Certainly XB1/PS4 first three month NPD totals completely obliterate the same for 360/PS3.

I'm not making excuses for X1, I'll just say PS3 lost month after month after month of NPD's, often very badly, and people seemed to get over it. So crying too much over one bad month for X1 is I think a bit out of proportion, but the net tends to punish MS overly so they will. I will say the key difference is PS3 fared better in other markets at least.

I expect there will be several more bad months of poor X1 sales before they do anything. If CBOAT is to be believed, at least summer at the earliest, at which point hell they'll probably wait until fall, because things always take as long as possible in video games.

February and March should see some tax return bumps, and maybe a Titanfall bump for X1. Maybe then, April will be the first true early-PS3 style disaster month for X1? Like 80k or whatever?

For PS4 it did healthy, but I'm not even totally convinced it could have done much higher with adequate supply. There have been bouts of pretty decent supply. For example it's been available on Amazon for a couple days now, and it was also recently. In any case, sellouts with a number of 271k aren't as impressive from a demand perspective as they would be if the number was 400k or 500k. If it sold 500k that'd be indication of wild demand, with 271k I kind of wonder if the sellouts are fairly soft. Clearly the PS4 proposition has resonated much better with consumers though.

 

[temesgen]

An early belief regards manufacturing was 1 million a month, no? Do we really believe Sony is selling 750k to the rest of the world? Or is manufacturing still rather low? Did they take their foot off the pedal of manufacturing expecting a drop in sales??

I think it helps to consider how long it takes to ship from their factory to NA, I think Sony had a disproportionate amount of their production directed at NA bc of launch schedule and logistics for the holidays but coming into the new year their focus would be ramping up stock for other launches world wide. They should have known it would easier to direct units manufactured in January to Europe and Asia and let the NA supply trickle in due to time on the boat. The US being further away requires more planning unless they want to use air freight which was likely cost prohibitive.

This would not only make sense for their supply chain but it would allow them to build critical mass in Europe and Asia and take a wait and see approach regarding March and Titanfall launch. Sony can't afford to screw up, so going after the low hangin fruit in Europe and Asia makes sense for the time being. They are still competitive in the US anyway.