All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[Silent_Buddha]

It's been covered widely that PS4 reached 20m and 25m global sales faster than PS2. I don't understand SB's analysis at all. Is he saying that despite PS4's great start, Xbox One's sales will make the generation an overall failure in terms of sales?

Maybe the sales rates are criss-crossing, does anybody have an updated graph showing sales rates relative to launch?

I'm going by the ZhugeEX cumulative home console shipments for first 8 calendar years graph combined with widely available information on cumulative sales of previous generations.

His Gen 6 graph only has numbers for PS2, Xbox, and Gamecube so Dreamcasts contribution at the start of the generation isn't a factor. I suppose it's possible that Xbox + Gamecube completely eclipsed PS2 sales in the first 3 years but I don't remember that being the case.

Regards,
SB

 

[ZhugeEX]

I'm going by the ZhugeEX cumulative home console shipments for first 8 calendar years graph combined with widely available information on cumulative sales of previous generations.

His Gen 6 graph only has numbers for PS2, Xbox, and Gamecube so Dreamcasts contribution at the start of the generation isn't a factor. I suppose it's possible that Xbox + Gamecube completely eclipsed PS2 sales in the first 3 years but I don't remember that being the case.

Regards,
SB

This one I presume?

And this one?

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Well it's not looking very hot for the combined Gen 8 curve, because the Wii U had a full year for itself, so the beginning gets "contaminated" by that. By the 2 year mark you still only have the first two months for PS4/One. How about not making too many assumptions based only on that SB?

Having said that. This gen does have its hands full with gen 6

edit: on that combined curve year 2 mark has about 22 months of PS2 sales (not WW the whole time) vs 2 months of PS4 sales...

 

[ZhugeEX]

Well it's not looking very hot for the combined Gen 8 curve, because the Wii U had a full year for itself, so the beginning gets "contaminated" by that. By the 2 year mark you still only have the first two months for PS4/One. How about not making too many assumptions based only on that SB?

Having said that. This gen does have its hands full with gen 6

edit: on that combined curve year 2 mark has about 22 months of PS2 sales (not WW the whole time) vs 2 months of PS4 sales...

Yup, do keep in mind that the chart is comparing years, not months. And also that it looks at the generation start year rather than when the best selling console came out. So 2005 for Xbox 360 for example.

That being said it's fairly clear that the Xbox One and Nintendo Wii U will be tracking lower than their predecessors when it comes to lifetime sales. The PlayStation 4 should stay above the PS2 line for a while but I would expect it to drop down below the PS2 before its able to hit 50 million.

I might do a post on it sometime in the future so people can read through why I think this will happen.

 

[ZhugeEX]

By the way, is there a way to edit posts? I meant to say "lifetime sales" above but ended up saying "lifetime to date".

Anyway, I have my NPD report for September up-
https://zhugeex.com/2015/10/septemb...ystation-4-hits-nine-million-units-in-the-us/

 

[Shifty Geezer]

You need a certain post number to unlock edit options. I'll make the edit for you.

 

[ZhugeEX]

You need a certain post number to unlock edit options. I'll make the edit for you.

Ah awesome.

Thanks very much.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

That being said it's fairly clear that the Xbox One and Nintendo Wii U will be tracking lower than their predecessors when it comes to lifetime sales. The PlayStation 4 should stay above the PS2 line for a while but I would expect it to drop down below the PS2 before its able to hit 50 million.

Yep I agree that PS4 will fall under the PS2 soonish and the One under 360 later on, but the One should still be able to crush the Xbox 1... err the original Xbox. Wii U and Gamecube will be close, so the question remains whether PS4 will lose to PS2 by more than Xbox One will beat the original Xbox. I think Gen 6 vs 8 might end up quite close. It's just hard to see how long/short legs this gen is going to have...

 

[Rangers]

PS4 saw a huge drop from last year (~200,000, September 2014=538k) while Xbox One was fairly flat.

Combine that with the PS4 price drop seems to have generated lukewarm hype of any price drop in recent memory. I'm not sure if it was because GAF had everybody expecting 299, thus it was underwhelming by comparison.

I think Xbox One will be fine for the holiday assuming they are willing to do lots of 299 deals, and assuming Sony does not match that in a widespread fashion.

Still overall things seem rather in the doldrums. It's always just hard to say how much digital is taking over the slack.

Gen over gen 360 vs One, One took a big hit this month as 360 in Sep. 2007 sold 528k. Overall I have 360 at 6.72 million to this point in 2007, One is at 8.14 million (this actually jives almost perfectly with the GAF info tidbits that PS4 just hit 9 million and that PS4 LTD lead over 360 is 862k).

In October 2007 360 sold 366k, so One might be able to make some ground on that comparison this month, but it wont necessarily be easy imo Halo 5 or not. It's back to a 4 week month for starters.

I feel like in general people are overestimating the hardware boost Halo 5 is gonna give, but I could be wrong on that.

 

[iroboto]

3 Forza games and the XBO hasn't even been out 2 years...

I like Forza but my wallet cannot afford so may racing games in such a small time frame. There are other games that need love.

 

[Clukos]

PS4 saw a huge drop from last year (~200,000, September 2014=538k) while Xbox One was fairly flat.

Combine that with the PS4 price drop seems to have generated lukewarm hype of any price drop in recent memory. I'm not sure if it was because GAF had everybody expecting 299, thus it was underwhelming by comparison.

Um what? The price drop wasn't in effect in September, even in Japan the price drop started during the first week of October. And i am pretty sure last year September was a huge month for Ps4 due to Destiny alone and the huge marketing push behind that.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Um what? The price drop wasn't in effect in September, even in Japan the price drop started during the first week of October. And i am pretty sure last year September was a huge month for Ps4 due to Destiny alone and the huge marketing push behind that.

He is not saying that the price drop took effect in September, but that he feels it didn't create enough of a buzz to help PS4 too much during the rest of the year.

It's going to be interesting end of the year. I also think that Xbox One is positioned pretty well, it might take every remaining month individually and naturally combined in US.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

PS4 has an official UK price cut to £300 (500 GB SKU, no game).

 

[Prophecy2k]

Um what? The price drop wasn't in effect in September, even in Japan the price drop started during the first week of October. And i am pretty sure last year September was a huge month for Ps4 due to Destiny alone and the huge marketing push behind that.

I would hazard a guess that after last year's crazy holiday deals, potential buyers are now holding out for price drops and such.

You'd be silly to buy a PS4 in Septemeber when everyone and their uncle was predicting a price drop, and without any absolute must-have games launching until Nov/Dec, you'd be much better served waiting till then for your new console purchases.

So the overall HW yoy drop in sales could simply evidence of consumers becoming more savvy and better informed.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

That's true of XB1 too. Like sofas. Everyone knows there are massive savings towards the end of the year, so why buy earlier? Unless there's a compelling title, chances are people will only buy for birthdays etc., and will hold out another month or two for Massive Savings. That's the ludicrousness of Black Friday and massive deals generally.

 

[Prophecy2k]

That's true of XB1 too. Like sofas. Everyone knows there are massive savings towards the end of the year, so why buy earlier? Unless there's a compelling title, chances are people will only buy for birthdays etc., and will hold out another month or two for Massive Savings. That's the ludicrousness of Black Friday and massive deals generally.

I intentionally left out the XB1 because Halo launches in Oct. So I figured there could be a sizeable number of people buying their XB1s with their Sept salaries in anticipation of the big tentpole title launching the following month.

I would be inclined to assume this is why the XB1 sales were flat from last year, in comparison to the PS4 which saw a significant drop yoy.

 

[djskribbles]

PS4 saw a huge drop from last year (~200,000, September 2014=538k) while Xbox One was fairly flat.

Of course the PS4 saw a large drop... the PS4 Destiny bundle was available for pre-order longer than TTK bundle, and Destiny had a lot of hype around it. TTK bundle is in no way comparable to last year's Destiny bundle in terms of hype/popularity. Not to mention the PS4 was basically the same price as last year whereas the XB1 saw a price drop and was still down YOY.

Combine that with the PS4 price drop seems to have generated lukewarm hype of any price drop in recent memory. I'm not sure if it was because GAF had everybody expecting 299, thus it was underwhelming by comparison.

Seems to be on par with any other $50 price drop. We'll see with October's NPD.

 

[dobwal]

Yup, do keep in mind that the chart is comparing years, not months. And also that it looks at the generation start year rather than when the best selling console came out. So 2005 for Xbox 360 for example.

That being said it's fairly clear that the Xbox One and Nintendo Wii U will be tracking lower than their predecessors when it comes to lifetime sales. The PlayStation 4 should stay above the PS2 line for a while but I would expect it to drop down below the PS2 before its able to hit 50 million.

I might do a post on it sometime in the future so people can read through why I think this will happen.

I don't. If you look at gen 7 in the cumulative chart you'll notice that the sales rate from year 3 to year 7 is pretty steady even though those years contain Wii's sale data near its peak demand as well as data of when the Wii's sales fell off the cliff and allowed the 360 and PS3 to outsell in the US and other regions. That tells me that the ps3 and 360 growth in sales over that time period was able to accommodate the slowing sales of the Wii and leave the overall sales rate relatively unchanged.

While I expect that the 100 million Wii consoles sold contained a lot of non traditional console buyers, I do think that more than a few Wii gamers will be retained and participate in this gen and not just as Wii U buyers. I imagine the console userbase is still somewhere north of 200 million.

I think the gen will easily accommodate PS4 with LTD sales over the PS2 while Xbox 1 experience sales somewhere south of the 360 (50-70 million).

I think your estimate for gen 8 is too low. Its too dependent on sales of the Xb1 and PS4 at basically launch price levels. I think demand at sub $300 price points is a lot higher than demand at prices from 2014.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

I don't. If you look at gen 7 in the cumulative chart you'll notice that the sales rate from year 3 to year 7 is pretty steady even though those years contain Wii's sale data near its peak demand as well as data of when the Wii's sales fell off the cliff

Actually the year 7 mark on that chart is at the end of 2011. Wii still did little over 10 million units WW during that calendar year and over 1 million in December 2011 reported by NPD.

I think the gen will easily accommodate PS4 with LTD sales over the PS2

I just really don't see this happening. PS2 had such a long legs and ended up doing over 150M units. I don't think PS4 can never go as low in price as PS2 went and won't last as many years either. The competition from other consoles and gadgets is tougher now.

 

[dobwal]

Actually the year 7 mark on that chart is at the end of 2011. Wii still did little over 10 million units WW during that calendar year and over 1 million in December 2011 reported by NPD.

True, but I consider that falling off the cliff especially considering that in year 3 (2008) the Wii was moving 500-700K (except for 3 months) on a monthly basis and 2 million for both the month Nov and Dec. Or 2009 when the Wii was moving 4 million in December alone and 5.5 million over that entire holiday. The Wii only did ~2 million for the Oct, Nov and Dec of 2011. While the 360 and PS3 combined did ~6 million over that same holiday.

I just really don't see this happening. PS2 had such a long legs and ended up doing over 150M units. I don't think PS4 can never go as low in price as PS2 went and won't last as many years either. The competition from other consoles and gadgets is tougher now.

I can. I think the Wii U is done but the Wii created plenty of non-one-and-done console gaming fans. I am guessing plenty were kids who have matured and are attracted to more adult like wares, no differently than a lot of us who grew up on Nintendo but moved onto the PS1 with it more mature library. The PS4 only needs about a 1/3 of the 360 crowd and 2/5 of the Wii crowd to pull it off. And I imagine at the conservative rate at which these consoles are price cutting that next gen is further off than most think. I can see the PS4 having a 70-75% market share of a 200-220 million userbase.

Im not going to bet money. LOL. But I can see it happening. While I can see MS getting better when it comes to sales in the Americas. I think Euro and Asia is simply going to be Sony land and the strength of the PS4 sales.