All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[Prophecy2k]

Witcher 3 on eve of release, "only" #4 and 9 Ps4/X1.

If it means anything. Maybe solid hit but not just going to set records you'd think or it could get the #1 spot.

Well, CD Projeckt RED announced 1m pre-orders recently.

As far as i know that's pretty unprecidented for this kind of game. Most games that garner high pre-order numbers are usually shooters aren't they?

 

[Deleted member 11852]

As far as i know that's pretty unprecidented for this kind of game. Most games that garner high pre-order numbers are usually shooters aren't they?

Geralt has a crossbow. Smart move by CDPR.

 

[holsty101]

Re ps4 price cut, wouldn't it be unprecedented for a ps console to hold its price for 3 Christmas' at this point in its lifespan? I know there's a multitude of factors that go into it, with the most relevant points not making it to the public eye, but i think I'd be more surprised to not see a cut this year tbh.​

 

[DieH@rd]

Well, CD Projeckt RED announced 1m pre-orders recently.

And now, a week later, they've hit 1.5M preorders. Looks like early reviews and kickass CGI trailer paid off.

On the other hand, Take 2 reports that GTA5 has sold 52 mil and that total install base for nextgen [ps4+xbone] at the end of calendar Q1 is 34M [sold throught, IDG numbers]. Forecasts for future are 50M by end of this year, 110M by the end of 2019 [which is quite conservative].
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1048022

 

[London Geezer]

110M copies of GTAV by 2019? how can that be? Maybe if they keep releasing it on next gen platforms, but even then that sounds quite generous.
Also, 34M for both PS4 and X1 means pretty much everyone bought the game on PS4 and X1? How?? 34M is the total current generation, more or less. Are my numbers completely off??

 

[Silent_Buddha]

110M copies of GTAV by 2019? how can that be? Maybe if they keep releasing it on next gen platforms, but even then that sounds quite generous.
Also, 34M for both PS4 and X1 means pretty much everyone bought the game on PS4 and X1? How?? 34M is the total current generation, more or less. Are my numbers completely off??

You read it wrong. 110 million PS4+XBO consoles, not GTAV.

Regards,
SB

 

[London Geezer]

DOH!
In my defence, the sentence could have been structured better.........

 

[temesgen]

And now, a week later, they've hit 1.5M preorders. Looks like early reviews and kickass CGI trailer paid off.

On the other hand, Take 2 reports that GTA5 has sold 52 mil and that total install base for nextgen [ps4+xbone] at the end of calendar Q1 is 34M [sold throught, IDG numbers]. Forecasts for future are 50M by end of this year, 110M by the end of 2019 [which is quite conservative].
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1048022

Cal me crazy but I think it was the unicorn scene sneak peak... [emoji33]

 

[Inuhanyou]

I think those numbers are also conservative. In 4 years, i'd say PS4 has more than a big enough chance to surpass PS3 numbers in the same span of time at the very least.

 

[DieH@rd]

IDG believes that nextgen console sales are very front loaded and will slow down as years go by.

 

[Prophecy2k]

IDG believes that nextgen console sales are very front loaded and will slow down as years go by.

If VR doesn't take off, then I can see this being the case potentially. Main reason being there just isn't as many games being developed in absolute terms for the current gen consoles. Over the last gen, many of the bigger games publishers that aren't in the top 5 western pubs either committed suicide, scaled back AAA development, or both. Almost all the big independent AAA game dev studios either folded or got bought out by one of the top 5 pubs (some after which time got shuttered).

Last gen killed off so many devs that we cannot possibly have as many games to play this gen. and unless existing pubs start launching some new IP, then even the existing tentpole releases will start to stagnate, dry up and eventually lose their appeal.

 

[Arwin]

IDG believes that nextgen console sales are very front loaded and will slow down as years go by.

Like I said, it's definitely possible for the European market at the very least, as the price point of the PS4 at launch is 200 euro lower than the PS3 and PS2 were.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

IDG believes that nextgen console sales are very front loaded and will slow down as years go by.

This contradicts well established market dynamics and, of course, console sales history. As years pass console sales generally incline as they become more compelling purchases (more games and services) at a cheaper price. This will plateau at some point obviously.

I'm not sure why this generation will be any different.

 

[DieH@rd]

I think 2016 and 2017 will both be years with increase of console sales, even without the possible boost of VR. We cannot predict big software titles for too much in the future, but at least we know that 2016 will be utterly magnificent [Uncharted 4, Mirror's Edge, Mass Effect 4, Deus Ex: Mankind Divided, Doom 4, Final Fantasy XV, Titanfall 2, Division, Gears 4, possibly Fallout 4...]

 

[Inuhanyou]

We havent had any pricecuts except for XB1, we havent had the heavy hitting games yet, nor even E3 to see what we can expect in the future. I think extrapolating in that manner is very shortsighted

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I think those numbers are also conservative. In 4 years, i'd say PS4 has more than a big enough chance to surpass PS3 numbers in the same span of time at the very least.

With those numbers it would. That would be ~73 million PS4's (assuming 2:1 ratio of PS4/XBO) in 6 years. I believe it took PS3 longer than that to break 70 million.

Regards,
SB

 

[goonergaz]

We havent had any pricecuts except for XB1, we havent had the heavy hitting games yet, nor even E3 to see what we can expect in the future. I think extrapolating in that manner is very shortsighted

We've had at least official PS4 pack-ins, but in the UK you can get PS4 + game for £300 vs a launch price of £350 for the console only.

 

[Inuhanyou]

i think official flat rate price cuts have a bit more of an effect than retailer specific

 

[Sonic]

A lot of sites are reporting some contest or giveaway Sony is having that Sony is valuing PS4 at $349. So maybe a possible price cut, at least that's what the noise being generated by this is suggesting.

http://bgr.com/2015/05/20/ps4-price-drop-rumor-2015/

 

[Rangers]

Couple interesting sales notes, Japan had the lowest sales week for "traditional" games ever last week (I think this means retail, non-mobile).

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1049952

Honestly not surprising to me, just never mind even mobile, digital share would be growing.

Also Cosmic Queso (who has NPD access) had some interesting notes on digital sales in a post

Meh, people may argue with me, but as high as 30% of sales on Day 1 are digital, falling to the 20%+ range by end of week 1, then falling over time to 10-15%, usually because of pricing discrepancies between physical and digital (digital pricing tends to be more expensive as titles age, either due to intentional strategy or, more likely, indifference) as well as catalog titles being very difficult to discover digitally outside of flash sales and the like.

These day 1/week 1 digital as % of total percentages are going up with every release, but the longer term percentages are not... at least not yet.

For the platform splits... the Xone has a slightly higher digital share % than PS4 on the titles I've seen. The Xone also has a higher tie ratio. This could be due to lots of things. The smaller audience on Xone could be more traditional "Core" audience (therefore, higher tie ratios & likelihood to buy digital) while the PS4 has gone bigger and more "Mass" (and lower tie ratios, lower likelihood to buy digital). Or PS+ is driving down PS4 sw purchase tie ratios, while GWG is not. No real answers or research on that yet, so just theories.

Assuming Queso is getting this info from whatever digital reporting NPD does and assuming NPD digital coverage is somewhat accurate...

Xone having a slightly higher digital sales (in the USA anyway) doesn't surprise me but goes against conventional wisdom I guess.

Interesting other notes as well. I would think digitals share of legacy sales would rise after a point simply because you cant find games past a few months old at your local big box. Of course I suppose they are easily found on Amazon though, although without instant gratification.

Anyways it looks like digital continues to grow on consoles, if Queso is claiming up to 30% digital on day 1, that's pretty huge and accounts for a big part of why NPD software retail sales aren't looking so hot lately. Knowing that sales are massively frontloaded anyway.