Are you saying this to support my point or do you believe that those people were right to say that at that time?
All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+
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Are you saying this to support my point or do you believe that those people were right to say that at that time?
Yes. These projections were presumably used to promote the project to top brass at Microsoft, and when negotiating deals with content providers.
So you think the current generation of consoles will sell 400 million to a billion systems?
If we take the lowest of those estimates, 400 million, and divide by an 8 year life cycle, we get 50 million systems per year.
Of course, Microsoft hoped that online media would drive that to a billion systems, or 125 million systems per year assuming the same 8 year life cycle, the majority of which would be XBoxOne on the strength of their media focus and deals with content providers.
I don't agree with your assertion that "The only thing they got wrong is that they thought they'd be far more competitive with the PS4 than they currently are." In order for even the lower bound to be reached, console sales would have to increase enormously. I don't think that will happen. I just don't see what would drive such volumes. Now that much of the core console audience have presumably migrated, what would drive such a surge in sales?
Why not? Apple gets a subscription cut for any Netflix users that subscribe through an apple device. Consoles are one of the most used devices for Netflix users so I doubt ms and Sony don't have similar deals.
This is no longer true. Data from autumn 2014 shows 44% viewing through connected devices like Chromecast, 27% computers, 21% BluRay players/game consoles and the rest being mobile. Not only is game consoles dropping relative to other devices, they being actively replaced. While the previous generation of consoles benefitted sales wise from being connected and capable media players, that kind of functionality now comes in cereal boxes. Nobody needs to buy a big, expensive TV-attached box to watch or listen to streamed media, That time is gone. That market is gone. And that is one of the reasons I just can't see the current generation of consoles expanding to Miicrosoft forecast levels, because a major driving force that contributed to the previous generation selling as well as it did is no longer there, and there is no system like the Wii that has any novelty appeal to casuals. I would be surprised to see this generation of consoles reach aggregated sales of even half of Microsofts assumed lower bound. Currently the volume is even lower than that.
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Deleted member 86764
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Here's the actual quote:Yeah, the X1 is still handily outdoing 360 over the same point in NPD, and thus probably worldwide sales. I have charts for that I may post one soon.
It gets interesting though because X360 had a strong 2nd half 2007 (equivalent to X1's 2nd half 2015). So the gen over gen comparisons start getting tougher soon. Then, X360 also had an 8 year life before successor and very strong sales late in it's life (2010, 2011). Which would be equivalent to 2018, 19 for X1. It's simply too early to say if either of those will occur for X1 (the 8 year life at least seems unlikely to me).
About all we can say right now is that X1 LTD will lead X360 in gen over gen NPD sales certainly for the next 1-2 years. It's lead is too great (~1.6 million as of February I think). The farther out you get the harder it is to make a prediction.
Mmm, he was probably going off the fact before this gen I believe every gen had increased sales, and last gen did 260 million plus combined consoles (100m Wii 80+m PS3/360 each). And that's just for consoles, if you included DS and PSP as Silent Bhudda thinks he may have meant...that'd be a lot more especially for DS. And combining that with some crazy thoughtsI'm just saying lets say 400 million didn't seem out of the question.
Looking over old NPD's though the difference to today is pretty striking. I guess there has definitely been a downturn. An example, September 2007 NPD
September 07
Wii 501,000
DS 495,800
PS3 119,400
PSP 284,500
360 527,800
PS2 215,000
GBA 75,000
You dont see NPD numbers like this anymore. Probably even removing the utter cratering of handheld market. If I was to put out a optimistic guess at September 2015 NPD it'd probably be like, 500k PS4, 400k X1, 250k 3DS, everything else=paltry.
“Every generation, as you’ve probably heard, has grown approximately 30%. So this generation is about 300 million units. Most industry experts think the next generation will get upwards of about 400 million units. That’s if it’s a game console, over the next decade.
“We think you can go broader than a game console, that’s our aim, and you can go from 400 million to potentially upwards of a billion units. That’s how we’re thinking of the Xbox opportunity as we go forward.”
He's suggesting that he sees the generation normally selling 400m "that's if it's a game console", then he goes on to say that Microsoft are aiming to go broader than a game console and sales can be "upwards of a billion" that's how they're thinking "of the Xbox opportunity".
The population of the world is 7 billion, did he really think one in seven people - including those in third-world countries - would buy an Xbox??
The man is a lunatic.
You guys are so boring. Obsessing about a quote of ambiguous meaning made more than 2 years ago, which holds no importance whatsoever in the grand scheme of things.
We should open a poll to predict e3 sales announcements. PS4 should be between 25-28 million by now.
We should open a poll to predict e3 sales announcements. PS4 should be between 25-28 million by now.
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Deleted member 86764
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The point I was originally trying to make, was that the sales are definitely disappointing compared to the initial expectations regardless of the fact they're not 'bad'. I think Rangers has made a strong point about the industry regressing compared to the last gen - it has.
Your sales estimation of PS4 seems pretty accurate to me.
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Deleted member 11852
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I think it may be an interesting early sign of how Microsoft possibly misjudged the market this gen. This line in particular:
"Every generation, as you’ve probably heard, has grown approximately 30%. So this generation is about 300 million units. Most industry experts think the next generation will get upwards of about 400 million units. That’s if it’s a game console, over the next decade."
Those few words, ignored at the time the statement was made, but in retrospect were clearly an indicator that Xbox One, as evidenced by the launch, was conceived for a market that was driven by media consumption first and games second. Of course the whole number for last generation didn't account for the Wii being something of an anomaly attracting buyers who had never bought a games console before and never would again.
That seems reasonable. If Arkham Knight had come out a couple of weeks before E3 I think they could have sold 30m by then but the Witcher 3 will likely attract the lastgen RPG holdouts who aren't fans of Bioware games and for whom Dragon Age wasn't a draw.
I think even 25M shipped is debatable. PS4 was 20M sold-in on March 1, which probably means it's shipment was ~21.5M. We are almost 2 months away from that data point, and I don't think Sony would ship that much PS4s in that time. 28M shipped is totally unrealistic IMO.
How many devices are used for gaming now? There were 1 billion Android activations in 2013. Yes, 1 billion people (probably more) are gaming and have been reached by games. The opportunity for XBox is to have a (noteworthy) share of that market of 1 billion instead of a noteworthy share of 300 million consoles. Likewise, if the intention was to release a media device rather than a game console, the market for media devices is clearly O(400+ million).
If the guy had said sell a billion consoles, or even 400 million, he'd have been nuts, but that wasn't what he was saying at all. The predictions for the shape of the market and the opportunities for the XBox brand are definitely as he described regards potential. It's also a difference from PS which, as a brand, is somewhat stuck in console space because Sony aren't in a position to roll it out to mobiles or TV/media, unless they undergo some rebranding. Of course, this has no impact on console sales or this thread, but, as DSoup will tell you, XBox is no longer about the console but MS's games and entertainments brand. Some people just need to get with the times.
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Deleted member 86764
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I don't believe that's what he was saying at all (i.e., referring to the mobile market), he directly speaks about percentage increases in console sales and widening the market by adding media functions. He suggests those media functions will cause huge sale increases.
If anything, your argument shows that maybe consoles themselves should really be replaced by more mass market devices (mobile phones). There may be some truth in that, but I seriously don't think that's what he referring to.
If anything, your argument shows that maybe consoles themselves should really be replaced by more mass market devices (mobile phones). There may be some truth in that, but I seriously don't think that's what he referring to.
Code:
http://www.fierceonlinevideo.com/story/user-behavior-shifts-netflix-use-consoles-declines-streaming-device-use-ris/2014-10-07As of Winter 2014, consoles are still the top device of Netflix streaming with a 44% share.
And of course literally no one is buying consoles just for Netflix. Just like no one is buying smartphones or PCs for that purpose. I doubt you will find many console owners who find a Roku box as a suitable replacement for their consoles. The market isn't gone and isn't going anywhere.
Will these other cheaper devices take over as the top streaming device for Netflix. Probably so, but Netflix will probably still be providing a cut of their subscription to MS/Sony for console owners who use the service through their consoles.
Guesstimation...
20.1 m - March 1st
21 m - April 1st
21.8 m - May 1st
22.7 m - June 1st
23.2 - 23.4 m by June 15th.
Bloodborne and Batman, should be the catalyst on pushing (more) units up to E3.
Actually, I think it's quite interesting in that it provides insight and background to why the XB1 is designed as it is, and launched as it was. Plus, it may give some perspective on whether Microsoft leadership feels that it is fulfilling its purpose.
As far as topics go, that's pretty substantial, I'd say.
Silent_Buddha
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I fully expect another big Xbox One = Media + Games + Windows 10 extender (Win10 apps on your XBO, XBO games streamed to your Windows tablets) marketing drive at some point in the future once they've beefed up the media capabilities a bit more and there's more cross platform (Win10) apps in the Xbox store. Probably not this year, but possibly next year. And most likely to coincide with an Xbox slim combined with a price reduction.
Regards,
SB
Sony nambers, 2.8 million PS4+PS3 (2.4m PS4, 400,000 PS3)
A little under my prediction of 3.0-3.5 combined, but about right.
Verifies my guess that 360 was about 400k for MS as well, since 360 worldwide sales should be in the ballpark of PS3 WW sales and vice versa (although there could be a lot of quarterly variation whenever it comes to ship numbers). So, if MS shipped 1.2 million X1's, it's right around 2:1 for PS4, as expected. That ratio decreases in holidays though (which are more sales also).
If I'm reading the report right they lost a little money in the gaming division this quarter, but profitable for all of fiscal 2014.
GAF says they forecast 16 million PS4 shipped Fiscal 15 which is an increase on FY 14 (14.8).
A little under my prediction of 3.0-3.5 combined, but about right.
Verifies my guess that 360 was about 400k for MS as well, since 360 worldwide sales should be in the ballpark of PS3 WW sales and vice versa (although there could be a lot of quarterly variation whenever it comes to ship numbers). So, if MS shipped 1.2 million X1's, it's right around 2:1 for PS4, as expected. That ratio decreases in holidays though (which are more sales also).
If I'm reading the report right they lost a little money in the gaming division this quarter, but profitable for all of fiscal 2014.
GAF says they forecast 16 million PS4 shipped Fiscal 15 which is an increase on FY 14 (14.8).
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Why is Q4 2014 so low compared to Q3?
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