All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[Rangers]

More anecdotal evidence of plenty of XB1s in stock, probably the largest piles I've seen.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=96411272#post96411272
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=96446564&postcount=2516

Dat Cboat massive yield issues

For shits n giggles I compared Phil's b4stats site (http://temp.conceptics.ch/bf4stats/) to get an idea of rolling average of BF4 players and compare that to actual recorded sales as of end of Dec (which was 4.2m PS4 and 3m One). The ratio is in fact pretty close.

One ratio to PS4 sales= 3/4.2= 71.4%
BFstats avg online players for the lifetime of Phil's site (about two weeks) ratio of One players to PS4=34/45.7=74.3%


Most recent day= 26.4/33.2=79.5%
Last week=33/44.4=74.3%

Seems at least the ratio of online PS4/XOne BF4 players on avg (because it will vary greatly based on time of day) is decently close to recorded hardware sales...perhaps this could be a defacto sales tracker.

If Phil keeps the site up over time we can get more data, and see for example if it corresponds at all to monthly sales trends etc. This might be difficult though, since it's worldwide stats and NPD's are USA only. Still, I'm guessing the ratios may be fairly constant.

 

[Rangers]

Uk charts week 1 2014...


01 (05) PS4 FIFA 14 (ELECTRONIC ARTS)
02 (02) 360 ASSASSIN'S CREED IV: BLACK FLAG (UBISOFT)
03 (01) 360 CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD)
04 (08) 360 MINECRAFT: XBOX 360 EDITION (MICROSOFT)
05 (03) 360 GRAND THEFT AUTO V (TAKE 2)
06 (04) 360 FIFA 14 (ELECTRONIC ARTS)
07 (15) XBO FIFA 14 (ELECTRONIC ARTS)
08 (17) PS4 BATTLEFIELD 4 (ELECTRONIC ARTS)
09 (14) PS4 CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD)
10 (19) XBO BATTLEFIELD 4 (ELECTRONIC ARTS)

I mainly posted this to show how fast next gen takes over. Sure it may be a bit of an anomaly, 360 still dominates etc, but the fact is a PS4 title is #1 already.

There may be only 7 million XBO's/PS4's out there compared to 160 million PS3/360's, but they are where all the active core players will quickly flock, and in very little time will be the dominant software selling platforms. By holiday 2014 I'm guessing next gen versions of the huge annual franchises like Assassins Creed will be better selling on next gen than current gen, and by 2015 they should be completely dominant.

 

[itsmydamnation]

i think @399/499 you might even be to pessimistic on how quick PS4/X1 will take over. it could be a completely done deal by next xmas. in oz a ps3 500gb is ~380 a ps4 is 549, PS3 launched in oz ~1k. We aren't going to see long legs for the old gear like we did in the previous gen.

 

[Shortbread]

More anecdotal evidence of plenty of XB1s in stock, probably the largest piles I've seen.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=96411272#post96411272
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=96446564&postcount=2516

Yup. So guess how a vendors/distributor warehouse would look like when backed-up with excessive inventory? Anyhow, I took a picture the day before Christmas on the availability of XB1's at Toys "R" Us, that have been in inventory for 48hrs (below). So yes, demand isn't out stripping supply.

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1816808&postcount=536

What will hurt consumers is a monopoly. There is a huge gap between monopoly, parity, and what Sony and MS would consider a success or failure.
Thanks

When has there ever been a monopoly in the gaming space? Yes, Sony was a dominate force during the PS1/PS2 days. But during that time period, there were sh**s loads of great games on making it a formidable foe, as Nintendo during the Sega/NEC days. So, this notion of a monopoly happening in the gaming space is quite irrelevant, when there is some "company" willing to challenge it. Nintendo vs Sega vs NEC >>> Sony vs Nintendo vs Sega >>> Sony vs MS vs Nintendo. There will always be a competitor, regardless of the changes in the roster.

 

[Rangers]

"The Playstation 4 pipped Xbox 360 in the final week to become the UK's best-selling home games console in 2013."

"It beat Xbox 360 to the No.1 home console position by a couple of thousand units"

"However, PS4 wasn't the best-selling games device of 2013. That title belongs to the 3DS, which enjoyed strong sales thanks to a number of big releases and the launch of the 2DS."

I guess this was sourced to MCV UK digital edition, so no real link but here's one to Neogaf

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=748649

PS4 sold 530k, so X360 must have been well ~528k

These numbers for 360 did not seem to add up to me for 360. They dont seem high enough, based on UK 360 sales usually~rest of EU, plus that USA usually ~half of worldwide 360 sales. Considering 360 has shipped 10m/year, ~1m for all Europe seemed crazy low.

So I did some checking, NPD through Nov has 360 at ~2.4m, with Nov at 647k. Figure maybe another 500-600k for Dec, that's 3m.

UK is around 1/5 USA population, if sales are somewhat at the same rate, 528k UK 360 sales is reasonable. So it checks out there.

The ship numbers are a little harder to reconcile, through 3 quarters 360 has already shipped 3.5m. The 4th quarter is usually big. For example last year they shipped 5.9m in the 4th Q alone. Even allowing for a catastrophic YoY dropoff, they should ship 2.5mm in 4th Q, making 6m annually overall.

6m with ~3m USA, ~.5m UK, ~.5m EU, still leaves 2m unaccounted for, even figuring some sales in places like Canada, Australia, etc, which is tough unless emerging markets are playing a bigger role.

 

[mrcorbo]

That's nonsense.

I would agree, actually, that competition just for competition's sake is pointless. Lack of competition, though, is always bad for the market and paradoxically often bad for the dominant player in the industry as well.

As an example, one can look at the quality/value of Intel's microprocessors before and after AMD began to erode their market position in the Athlon and Athlon 64 era and more recently now that AMD has fallen behind at the high end. Similarly, we can see how they are rapidly improving the quality of their low-power architectures in the presence of the threat presented by the ARM platform's dominance in the mobile world.

So we do want competition, but it has to be competition with merit, not just another option for the sake of there being another option.

 

[dobwal]

While competition enables healthy markets. There are other factors that have contributed to the landscape of consoles today. The competitor also matters.

The Wii could of sold 300 million consoles and the Wii U could of have sold 6 million in its debut with continuing strong sales throughout the year. A lack of a Sony or MS and Nintendo would have never encouraged a competitor to shoot for an apu as big as durango or 18 CUs in Orbis or 8 GB or gddr5 or ddr3. Thoroughly outshining Nintendo visually doesn't require the level of hardware we see in the Xb1 and PS4.

We have lucked out the last two gens. I only pray this luck doesn't run out anytime soon.

 

[Shortbread]

Note 2: PS4 demand is still very high, actually increased after the Holiday season, per GameStop. XB1 demand is strong, but sales have dropped by 32% between GS/BB as of today, the first initial drop (9%) occurring during Christmas week, another 21% by the following week.

Note 3: Some vendors/distributors have an abundant of XB1 units in waiting. One vendor has confirmed a few orders were larger than expected – compared to what was initially ordered (could be an error on either end). I'll let you know within a week or so how this plays out...

The truth of the matter is this; this is what's happening.

I believe MS has about the same production yields as Sony. It's the initial XB1 demand that has fallen sharply, causing the 1.2 million units sales gap between them and Sony. That's why MS stated; sold out at "most" retailers. It doesn't take a genius to understand why some vendors/distributor channels have so much XB1 stock.

Edit: Also, the one channel that I know of (verified as well), has over 123K XB1 in waiting. Hence my earlier thread comments... and this particular channel is somewhat small (warehousing wise), when compared to others.

Well guys/gals I can confirm another 7k XB1 units have came in. No movement from the previous inventory.

 

[mrcorbo]

Well guys/gals I can confirm another 7k XB1 units have came in. No movement from the previous inventory.

Why the emoticon? Are you troubled by this for some reason?

 

[Xalion]

Why the emoticon? Are you troubled by this for some reason?

If he is in retail, I would bet he is. More inventory with few sales means that the company has paid for product that isn't moving. Given storage costs and upfront price, most retailers don't like to sit on any firm quantity.

On the distribution side, this makes it really hard for distributors to gauge what they should order. Especially as we drop into the part of the year where we expect sales to be lower. So if you go from 123k in the channel to 130k, then it would trouble lots of people working in distribution.

Note that these events would be troubling in the absence of a "console war". That being said, all of these anecdotal reports are not making much sense to me. I'm having trouble making all the figures add up in my head. On one hand, I can't imaging that Microsoft has only ~75% of the production capability that Sony has - but on the other I find it hard to believe that demand for the XBox has dropped off so severely that it is already a major factor in sales numbers. There doesn't seem to be a lot of middle ground.

 

[mrcorbo]

If he is in retail, I would bet he is. More inventory with few sales means that the company has paid for product that isn't moving. Given storage costs and upfront price, most retailers don't like to sit on any firm quantity.

On the distribution side, this makes it really hard for distributors to gauge what they should order. Especially as we drop into the part of the year where we expect sales to be lower. So if you go from 123k in the channel to 130k, then it would trouble lots of people working in distribution.

Note that these events would be troubling in the absence of a "console war". That being said, all of these anecdotal reports are not making much sense to me. I'm having trouble making all the figures add up in my head. On one hand, I can't imaging that Microsoft has only ~75% of the production capability that Sony has - but on the other I find it hard to believe that demand for the XBox has dropped off so severely that it is already a major factor in sales numbers. There doesn't seem to be a lot of middle ground.

The availability of these consoles at launch is unprecedented. How much bigger do you think the pool of people who are willing to buy a new console at launch is (when they hold as little appeal as they likely ever will) than the 7.2 Million combined who already have?

 

[Xalion]

The availability of these consoles at launch is unprecedented. How much bigger do you think the pool of people who are willing to buy a new console at launch is (when they hold as little appeal as they likely ever will) than the 7.2 Million combined who already have?

If the explanation is a limit on the number of people willing to buy consoles, why aren't PS4s in stock everywhere?

 

[Bagel seed]

Interesting tidbits Shortbread. Very curious about Jan NPD now if these anecdotes and images of piles of Xbones are really representative of the state of things on a wider scale.

 

[mrcorbo]

If the explanation is a limit on the number of people willing to buy consoles, why aren't PS4s in stock everywhere?

Did you expect the appeal of the PS4 and XBOne to the market to be comparable? I didn't.

Also, PS4 is available in more countries which widens the pool further.

You seemed to have a problem believing that XBOne has been able to exceed demand with supply. I'm just pointing out the reasons I don't have a problem believing it.

 

[Xalion]

Did you expect the appeal of the PS4 and XBOne to the market to be comparable? I didn't.

Also, PS4 is available in more countries which widens the pool further.

You seemed to have a problem believing that XBOne has been able to exceed demand with supply. I'm just pointing out the reasons I don't have a problem believing it.

I can understand your perspective. It differs from my own - but I think most of our differences are just matters of opinion. I'm not trying to infer doom and gloom on any particular manufacturer here, just trying to re-align my expectations.

Just to state my opinion and to answer your questions: First, I did expect the appeal of the PS4 and XBOne to be comparable at this point in their life cycle. The primary consumers at this point tend to be the target demographic of the system. Given lifetime sales are relatively similar from the previous generation, I expect the demographic base to be similar. While the price difference will have some effect, early in the life cycle I expect it to have less effect.

Also, I would expect each console to have a sell through of between 5 and 10 million before demand drops off. That is just based on last generation sales numbers and the length of the generation. I wouldn't necessarily expect a console to stay sold out until it reaches those types of numbers, but I wouldn't expect a large backlog in the channel before they do.

Now those are just my opinion. I am by no means a professional video game analyst, so it probably doesn't mean much. But right now the PS4 is looking to hit expectations for me (they could actually hit 5 million before they have any reasonable amount of consoles "in stock"). The XBox One is not. So as I said in my first post, the reports don't make a lot of sense to me.

 

[Bagel seed]

If we take the ubiquitous 2:1 interest ratio and apply it to demand, and note that Xbone supply has begun to satiate demand at 3 mil, then maybe we can expect things to slow down for PS4 once it hits 6 mil sold, which should be in March.

I guess that may line up with reports of preorders needing to wait until late Feb or so to be filled in some countries. Japan launch around then will give it another boost though.

 

[mrcorbo]

I can understand your perspective. It differs from my own - but I think most of our differences are just matters of opinion. I'm not trying to infer doom and gloom on any particular manufacturer here, just trying to re-align my expectations.

Just to state my opinion and to answer your questions: First, I did expect the appeal of the PS4 and XBOne to be comparable at this point in their life cycle. The primary consumers at this point tend to be the target demographic of the system. Given lifetime sales are relatively similar from the previous generation, I expect the demographic base to be similar. While the price difference will have some effect, early in the life cycle I expect it to have less effect.

Also, I would expect each console to have a sell through of between 5 and 10 million before demand drops off. That is just based on last generation sales numbers and the length of the generation. I wouldn't necessarily expect a console to stay sold out until it reaches those types of numbers, but I wouldn't expect a large backlog in the channel before they do.

Now those are just my opinion. I am by no means a professional video game analyst, so it probably doesn't mean much. But right now the PS4 is looking to hit expectations for me (they could actually hit 5 million before they have any reasonable amount of consoles "in stock"). The XBox One is not. So as I said in my first post, the reports don't make a lot of sense to me.

I would suggest you re-calibrate your expectations in this way. The XBOne sales have been outstanding. The PS4 sales have been ridiculous.

To provide some historical context: Sony *shipped* the following numbers of their prior consoles over their first *2 years* (fiscal years) on the market. [Source]

PS1 - 13.5M
PS2 - 10.6M
PS3 - 16.5M

PS4 has sold to consumers in 1 1/2 months 31%, 40% and 25% respectively of what those prior consoles shipped in their first two years.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

The availability of these consoles at launch is unprecedented. How much bigger do you think the pool of people who are willing to buy a new console at launch is (when they hold as little appeal as they likely ever will) than the 7.2 Million combined who already have?

Yeah, I have a little bit of difficulty understanding the majority of posts in this thread and the overall theme and temperature.

I've had no problem whatsoever finding either console sitting on the shelves in B&M stores since a week after launch. Yes, there are significantly more One consoles than PS4 consoles, but I've had no problems walking into stores and finding either one. And I haven't been looking for them. I just happen to swing by the electronics section whenever I'm in a store to check inventory just for my own amusement whenever I can remember to do so and not in a hurry to get in and get out.

Scientific? Not at all, and not claiming that it is. But it seems to me, based upon my personal experience as well as the sales figures being reported from both of these consoles, that they are both far more readily available than past console launches and that people are buying both of them at a tremendous rate.

Is Sony selling more units than MS? It certainly appears so. Is the gap between the two big enough to matter (influence 3rd party developer support)? Nope.

Speaking as someone with the means to buy either (or both) consoles, I have yet to find a compelling reason to do. Maybe the gap will widen after the holidays and once exclusive AAA games come to market, but right now? Nope.

And as such, I am shocked by both the amount of sales and the degree of availability of both of them.

 

[djskribbles]

Yeah, I have a little bit of difficulty understanding the majority of posts in this thread and the overall theme and temperature.

I've had no problem whatsoever finding either console sitting on the shelves in B&M stores since a week after launch. Yes, there are significantly more One consoles than PS4 consoles, but I've had no problems walking into stores and finding either one. And I haven't been looking for them. I just happen to swing by the electronics section whenever I'm in a store to check inventory just for my own amusement whenever I can remember to do so and not in a hurry to get in and get out.

Scientific? Not at all, and not claiming that it is. But it seems to me, based upon my personal experience as well as the sales figures being reported from both of these consoles, that they are both far more readily available than past console launches and that people are buying both of them at a tremendous rate.

Is Sony selling more units than MS? It certainly appears so. Is the gap between the two big enough to matter (influence 3rd party developer support)? Nope.

Speaking as someone with the means to buy either (or both) consoles, I have yet to find a compelling reason to do. Maybe the gap will widen after the holidays and once exclusive AAA games come to market, but right now? Nope.

And as such, I am shocked by both the amount of sales and the degree of availability of both of them.

We're not going off of single anecdotal reports, we're going off several, including our own personal experiences. The fact that PS4s still sell for higher than retail, and as much, if not higher than Xbox Ones on eBay or buy/sell/trade sites, corroborates the reports. And then there's this:

http://www.nowinstock.net/videogaming/consoles/ps4/
http://www.nowinstock.net/videogaming/consoles/xboxone/

Also, on amazon.com, the PS4 is currently ranked 1 with only promised stock for January 16th going in and out of stock for the past 1-2 days, and even that is currently sold out.

The gap has considerably widened since the last sales reports from each company and this absolutely has an affect in terms of third-party support, but maybe not in the way you were thinking. No, X1 won't really get less support, but it will definitely make it harder for MS to secure exclusives like they have in the past, which can (and will IMO) hurt them in the long run. IF Sony wanted to, they could probably flex their muscles to third-parties, but they don't really work that way, nor do they need to... they have very strong first-party teams.

But make no mistake, I don't think anyone is making any doom and gloom posts here. I for one think that the X1 will be fine, I just don't see it being as successful this generation. Sony has pretty much did a complete 180 from last generation and their efforts have been rewarded. I think they have been bang on with everything they've done with the PS4 so far.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

We're not going off of single anecdotal reports, we're going off several, including our own personal experiences. The fact that PS4s still sell for higher than retail, and as much, if not higher than Xbox Ones on eBay or buy/sell/trade sites, corroborates the reports. And then there's this:

http://www.nowinstock.net/videogaming/consoles/ps4/
http://www.nowinstock.net/videogaming/consoles/xboxone/

The gap has considerably widened since the last sales reports from each company.

Not sure what your point is, but mine was that it was strictly anecdotal that while Ones are available in more abundance that PS4s (both have been sold out at B&M retailers and both have been available at retailers), both are selling at astonishingly high volumes and yet both are readily available.

As for third-party support, the gap absolutely has an affect, but maybe not in the way you were thinking. No X1 won't really get less support from third-parties, but it will definitely make it harder for MS to secure exclusives like they have in the past, which can (and will IMO) hurt them in the long run.

Ehh? I'm not following this logic at all. The 360 secured exclusives because MS paid for them. And MS paid for them PRIOR to any sales figures and PRIOR to release. What exclusives did MS secure after their launch of the 360 in wake of lackluster PS3 sales? I'm not aware of any.

But make no mistake, I don't think anyone is making any doom and gloom posts here. I for one think that the X1 will be fine, I just don't see it being as successful this generation.

Based on what? Their lack of obtaining a key IP such as GEARS? Their lack of securing the first next-gen rights to Madden because the PS3 wasn't launching for an entire NFL season later? Their lack of paying for GTAIV, Bioshock, Mass Effect, etc to be a timed exclusives?

MS didn't get those exclusives or timed exclusives because of their launch sales numbers, they got them because they paid for them before the 360 even launched.

If you say that you believe MS made a mistake by not following that same pattern this generation because it was a key factor in their success last generation, I fully agree. I think that was a bad decision on their part. But those exclusives didn't come about because MS launched first and had X number of consoles sold. Those exclusives and timed exclusives were deals that were done well prior to launch.