All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[Deleted member 13524]

The slide came from an Onlive presentation during a D.I.C.E summit. It contains no references for those figures, but I doubt Onlive would intentionally present a bunch of made up or significantly wrong numbers to a crowd that would include participants who have intimate knowledge of such figures.

Some participants could have knowledge of their own anecdotal experience which may not have anything to do with these numbers, and they would still have to give them the benefit of doubt at the time.
I couldn't find any peer-reviewed study about this pie chart, so there's a million ways that OnLive could have spun this to fit their marketing material.

 

[iroboto]

PS4 is now selling better than Xbox One at Amazon. Now, you get a free game of your choice when you purchase a PS4 for $399.

Not for the month view yet. We may need a day to reflect newer numbers but I still see X1@1 and ps4@38

As for X1 being number 1 maybe it's the cause of residual Black Friday/cyber Monday sales that keep it propped up that high.

 

[dobwal]

Some participants could have knowledge of their own anecdotal experience which may not have anything to do with these numbers, and they would still have to give them the benefit of doubt at the time.
I couldn't find any peer-reviewed study about this pie chart, so there's a million ways that OnLive could have spun this to fit their marketing material.

99% of figures and other data we see here and discuss aren't peer reviewed. Almost all the sales data we readily discuss here would fall under suspicion if we required the same level of scrutiny you are requiring of OnLive's data.

Its not data you readily have to spin if you are OnLive, because the audience it targets are aware of their own numbers. Pubs know their own sales data and would apply it to Onlive talk accordingly (anecdotal experience takes precedence over general experiences).

Plus, its not like we have haven't seen other sources acknowledging similar retailers and royalty cuts. The data presented isn't really disputing other data we have seen or come across. Its a little more detailed but those details aren't shaping our discussion.

Its all academic anyway as its all in fun.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

AFAIK, sales numbers presented in this thread (i.e. NPD, each company's own numbers which are presented on their own tax declarations, etc.) are a lot more transparent in how they were acquired and a lot less prone to being a huge conflict of interest.

As you can see through Jwm's post, in his anecdotal experience the retailer takes $5 to $7 of the final price. That's between half and a third of what OnLive suggests in their study. It's a huge difference.

 

[dobwal]

AFAIK, sales numbers presented in this thread (i.e. NPD, each company's own numbers which are presented on their own tax declarations, etc.) are a lot more transparent in how they were acquired and a lot less prone to being a huge conflict of interest.

As you can see through Jwm's post, in his anecdotal experience the retailer takes $5 to $7 of the final price. That's between half and a third of what OnLive suggests in their study. It's a huge difference.

We simply assume NPD charts to be true because no manufacturer or pubs disputes their numbers. But NPD doesn't really release exact figures anymore and we use and readily accept numbers provided by NPD sources with no real way to verify their numbers. So, while some numbers can be derived from press releases, some numbers are just given to us and we accept solely based on trust.

JWM is a small retailer which represent a group who usually don't get the best wholesale pricing due to low volume. Gamestop or Walmart has far more leverage and capacity to negotiate better pricing. And since the vast majority of games are sold through major retailers, I expect the mean or medium to be highly influenced by the low price paid by major retailers.

 

[Phil]

And since the vast majority of games are sold through major retailers, I expect the mean or medium to be highly influenced by the low price paid by major retailers.

I don't want to be nit-picky, but I believe that there's a strong trend going on that means that the majority of games will not be sold through major retailers, but in fact through digital distribution, directly through the hardware vendor (PSN, Xbox Live etc). The fact that even on PS4 (I assume it's identical on the Xbox One) a retail game uses the same amount of physical disk space as a DD-downloaded version does, takes away the incentive to buy and own physical copies. The only thing standing in the way of DD currently (especially perhaps in the US) are lower internet bandwidth (downloading 15+ GB games might be a longer process than actually going out to the store to buy it), lack of creditcard that would make these purchases convinient, or perhaps the former and strong belief by millions that we still want to own our physical content instead of buying licenses to consume and selling our soul to the devil. I guess it's also an age-thing too - while teenagers and young gamers might still have to rely on buying physical copies, the majority of gamers who are well in their 20ties and above might not. Using smartphones to buy, access and consume content through iTunes or Google's Play store along with all the other online retailers like Amazon have made online purchases a very viable and attractive way to get to new content. Not to mention that now, it takes a PS+ membership that needs to be purchased to play online - so gamers are already confronted with 'online paying' one way or the other. Looking into the future; I fully expect 'major retailers' to suffer huge decreases in their revenue.

Anecdotal evidence it may be - but I have gone from 30+ games on PS3 that I purchased through major retail stores to 0 (yes, that's ZERO) on the PS4, with currently 10-15 DD purchased games. I know that I am not the only one who has gone this way. Since the average consumer purchases more than 1 game (isn't it 7-8 over the span of a generation?), even if a quarter decides to go fully digital, that would be a very substantial cut (quarter of the console installbase * 7-8 games).

 

[eastmen]

lack of creditcard that would make these purchases convenient,

Target would love to take a $2-3 cut on a piece of plastic with a code on it. They can fit their current stock of games in an area that's about a sixth the size of the current game section and have more room for higher margin items like controllers. Plus if someone sneaks out a game card its a worthless few cent piece of plastic.

The only company that will truly care is Gamestop and maybe bestbuy a little here in the states since both make money on used games

 

[Phil]

Indeed. Following up on my last post regarding DD purchases - I wouldn't be surprised to see that people who buy content through DD also buy *more content*. When I used to buy physical game copies - I would rarely buy more than one game at any given time and when I did go to the store, it was because I was waiting for a specific game. Now with DD, it's become far too easy to just *click, buy and play* all in an instant process. Hence as a result, I at least have found to be buying more content (even excluding micro-transactions and mini games) due to the trigger-happy syndrome. DD makes it way too easy to spend money at the click of a button. Buying at reteal stores when you physically need to swipe a card, enter a pin or withdraw or use physical money makes you think twice about your purchases. DD eliminates that, and due to 24/7 availability at the click of a button, you're practically in the store, at all times. I guess it really puts it into perspective how powerful DD is and why everyone (the vendors) want it.

Are there any statistics that would confirm any of this?

Back to my point; if DD really does cause more purchases, it not only means that vendors have the potential to sell more games (good for everyone inside the business I guess), but that major retailers are facing yet another disadvantage as they will continue to sell less and less. Used market is still a big market though and might increase its importance depending on which region you're from (from what I hear, used games market is quite substantial in NA but my guess is less so in Europe).

 

[Dave Baumann]

I don't want to be nit-picky, but I believe that there's a strong trend going on that means that the majority of games will not be sold through major retailers, but in fact through digital distribution...

That doesn't alter the point he was making though; for retail distribution or any/many kinds, smaller and/or independent stores will pick up a lot of their goods from distribution (which takes a slide of the pie themselves) while large retailers have their own distribution capabilities.

 

[Sonic]

Netflix may have destroyed Blockbuster, but that doesn't mean the similar concept of distribution will destroy games at retail. It could end up a mix of where people still buy physical media akin to DVD and BR film purchases. DD may end up taking over completely, or just gathering a large chunk of the pie. Towards the middle to the end of this generation we should have a better idea of how things will play out.

 

[Dave Baumann]

Netflix may have destroyed Blockbuster, but that doesn't mean the similar concept of distribution will destroy games at retail.

Steam says hi to PC games at EB/Gamestop.

 

[DieH@rd]

It is official, PS4 has sold over 1 million in France
http://i.imgur.com/RiUynfd.png

US, UK and Germany have already achieved this mark, next up is Japan.

 

[Newguy]

Do we have recent official Japan numbers up to now, ~750k?

http://www.dualshockers.com/2014/12/17/ps4-sells-over-900000-units-in-japan-after-record-week/

906,566 as of 14th Dec, that'll do I suppose.

 

[chris1515]

It is official, PS4 has sold over 1 million in France
http://i.imgur.com/RiUynfd.png

US, UK and Germany have already achieved this mark, next up is Japan.

Nintendo Wii U is at 490000 and the French Nintendo exceutive think they will sell 160000 Wii U before end of year in France. I think the lige PS4 sales will beat the best second holidays sell of Wii U in France 1,2 millions.

 

[chris1515]

In France

PS4: 1.000.000
Wii U: 490.000
XBO: 300.000 - 330.000

End of 2013 th gap was less than 2 to 1

242000 PS4 and 133000 Xbox One.

The gap grow between 4,5 to 1 to 5,5 to 1 since January 2014...

 

[chris1515]

Retailer try to clear the Xbox One stock and you can find some 399 euros bundle with 5 games.

 

[DieH@rd]

Retailer try to clear the Xbox One stock and you can find some 399 euros bundle with 5 games.

 

[Billy Idol]

Retailer try to clear the Xbox One stock and you can find some 399 euros bundle with 5 games.

Damn it! I bought the X1 way to early...but who could have known that the price of the box dives so low this fast

 

[DieH@rd]

Anyone who saw consumer demand for PS4 between January and summer could predict that MS would became desperate sooner than later. The crucial moment was removal of Kinect, which did not provide significant boost of sales during summer.

MS and retailers are now in the mode of "remove price as much and give as much games possible", but in EU even that is not helping to catch PS4 [except in UK when MS pushed Xbone during [for us irrelevant] Black Friday week].

Next big challenge for MS is whether or not to make this price permanent after their "holiday pricedrop" is over in early January.

 

[iroboto]

Anyone who saw consumer demand for PS4 between January and summer could predict that MS would became desperate sooner than later. The crucial moment was removal of Kinect, which did not provide significant boost of sales during summer.

MS and retailers are now in the mode of "remove price as much and give as much games possible", but in EU even that is not helping to catch PS4 [except in UK when MS pushed Xbone during [for us irrelevant] Black Friday week].

Next big challenge for MS is whether or not to make this price permanent after their "holiday pricedrop" is over in early January.

Hmm I disagree. I think microsofts next big challenge is whether all the purchasers of XboxOne this holiday have high satisfaction enough to generate positive user experience buzz to counteract the poor first showing.
MS needs to work for its existing customer base as much as it is working to obtain a larger one.

One thing Sony hasn't needed to do was work for its user base, IMO even if PS4 was still stuck on firmware 1.00 and did nothing since launch it would still fair better in the eyes of consumer as being the superior product.