All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[Rangers]

Well it does give us more insight into Xbox One ship numbers. A bit odd they didn't just wait until they actually hit 10 million. Either way it confirms what we suspected about X1 leading PS4 last two weeks in US. And shows X1 worldwide numbers are not as dire as some make them out.

We can say now 11/12/14 X1 ~10 million shipped. To go with 3.9 end Dec 13 and 5.1 end March 14.

I wonder what they'll be at end of the year then. 12.5? Pretty much all exactly as projected (by me anyway). Maybe a little upside on that, maybe even 13.5. PS4 will be around 20 million+.

For comparison Sony had PS4 at 13.5 million shipped at the end of September. But remember Oct-Nov-Dec will be really big shipping months.

For also comparison, Xbox 360 was at 10.4 million shipped end of December 2006. So, X1 should have a decent lead on that by then. Perhaps 20%+, which isn't spectacular I suppose, and depended on pretty hefty X1 discounting and bundling the last few months. Although to be fair, 360 had a $299 option from the start, and didn't start out at $499. The way I see it if (if, but I suspect) X1 hardware is cheap enough to support the discounting without it being a loss leader (DDR3, not cutting edge GPU), then it's not "cheating" vs 360 in a sense. It's perfectly legitimate strategy to build a weaker console and plan to build market share by selling it at a lower price.

 

[temesgen]

Well it does give us more insight into Xbox One ship numbers. A bit odd they didn't just wait until they actually hit 10 million. Either way it confirms what we suspected about X1 leading PS4 last two weeks in US. And shows X1 worldwide numbers are not as dire as some make them out.

We can say now 11/12/14 X1 ~10 million shipped. To go with 3.9 end Dec 13 and 5.1 end March 14.

I wonder what they'll be at end of the year then. 12.5? Pretty much all exactly as projected (by me anyway). Maybe a little upside on that, maybe even 13.5. PS4 will be around 20 million+.

For comparison Sony had PS4 at 13.5 million shipped at the end of September. But remember Oct-Nov-Dec will be really big shipping months.

For also comparison, Xbox 360 was at 10.4 million shipped end of December 2006. So, X1 should have a decent lead on that by then. Perhaps 20%+, which isn't spectacular I suppose, and depended on pretty hefty X1 discounting and bundling the last few months. Although to be fair, 360 had a $299 option from the start, and didn't start out at $499. The way I see it if (if, but I suspect) X1 hardware is cheap enough to support the discounting without it being a loss leader (DDR3, not cutting edge GPU), then it's not "cheating" vs 360 in a sense. It's perfectly legitimate strategy to build a weaker console and plan to build market share by selling it at a lower price.

are these PS4 numbers sales or shipped? Also do we know how many of these ~10 million shipped XB1s have sold thru to consumers? I'd expect whatever is in the channel to move over the holiday but if the channel was full as some have already speculated they might see very poor activity after the first of the year while inventory and demand move back into balance.

 

[Shortbread]

I would expect MS and Sony to rev-up unit shipping for the holiday seasons. So when MS states 10 million sold in soon (retailers), they're just stating the obvious. Soon could mean anything... from the end of the month, to the end of the year.

 

[temesgen]

I would expect MS and Sony to rev-up unit shipping for the holiday seasons. So when MS states 10 million sold in soon (retailers), they're just stating the obvious. Soon could mean anything... from the end of the month, to the end of the year.

No disagreement, the question for me is how much inventory was already in the channel? MS did this early in the previous generation, they stuffed the channel at one point. If there is already significant inventory in the channel the 10 million number has less meaning even if they have had better sales the past couple weeks. Both platforms will sell well this holiday season but we might be arguing shipped versus sold which gives a false sense relative success.

 

[Dave Baumann]

Unlikely they are over stuffing the channel because the "channel" doesn't have to take it if they think it is a risky proposition to sellthrough. The channel will react if they are seeing improved movement in the product at these prices it is pretty clear that the bundles are moving quickly.

As for the PR "not saying anything" it does effectively say that their November NPD numbers should already be 50% greater than whatever is posted for October.

 

[temesgen]

[QUOTE="Dave Baumann, post: 1807555, member: 2"]Unlikely they are over stuffing the channel because the "channel" doesn't have to take it if they think it is a risky proposition to sellthrough. The channel will react if they are seeing improved movement in the product at these prices it is pretty clear that the bundles are moving quickly.

As for the PR "not saying anything" it does effectively say that their November NPD numbers should already be 50% greater than whatever is posted for October.[/QUOTE]

Much of what was in the channel could have been there due to the assumption that the XB1 would be a hit just like the 360 and when that didn't happen retailers could have doubled down with titles like Titanfall being viewed as a system seller atleast according to conventional wisdom. We had people talking about buying day one editions as recently as July or there abouts and they have done it before. The 360 was over shipped relatively early in its life so I'm not sure why that isn't possible now.

 

[Dave Baumann]

If there was residual stuff already in the channel then retailers and distributers are not going to order more just for the sake of it, they are not on the hook to take anything. Distributers and retailer only have finite amounts of space and money, so you don't send out large invoices and fill up you stock rooms / store shelve with items that are not going to move - you are far better off spending that money and space on items that will; history showed them that taking large orders of 360 was a low risk proposition, however relative to PS4 the last year would say that this is not the case so why oversupply on Xbox One? You'd be far more inclined to do it on PS4, and other items for large, diverse retailers.

 

[Shortbread]

No disagreement, the question for me is how much inventory was already in the channel? MS did this early in the previous generation, they stuffed the channel at one point. If there is already significant inventory in the channel the 10 million number has less meaning even if they have had better sales the past couple weeks. Both platforms will sell well this holiday season but we might be arguing shipped versus sold which gives a false sense relative success.

From all indication MS has shipped 7.2-7.4 million XB1 units worldwide at the end of September. So an additional 3-4 million units shipped between October and December isn't unreasonable - especially during the holiday season. But anyone thinking MS is going to sale 4 million (or more) units between November and December is delusional, IMHO.

 

[temesgen]

If there was residual stuff already in the channel then retailers and distributers are not going to order more just for the sake of it, they are not on the hook to take anything. Distributers and retailer only have finite amounts of space and money, so you don't send out large invoices and fill up you stock rooms / store shelve with items that are not going to move - you are far better off spending that money and space on items that will; history showed them that taking large orders of 360 was a low risk proposition, however relative to PS4 the last year would say that this is not the case so why oversupply on Xbox One? You'd be far more inclined to do it on PS4, and other items for large, diverse retailers.

I'd say the release of Titanfall surely had caused some preemptive inventory purchases, similarly the price cut could have convinced some retailers that MS would start to move units. I'm sure there are more than a few SCM trying to decide what to do especially in the US. Not to mention that large buyers like Bestbuy likely had to take inventory on an ongoing basis to get product at launch, in retrospect poor decision but at the time nobody would have blinked at a contract which required them to buy x number of consoles a month for the next 12 months.

Edit:

I want to get out of the weeds, my question is of the units MS has shipped so far YTD how many approximately have been sold thru to consumers and how many are in the channel. If MS is going to ship another >3 million consoles that has to be material.

 

[Dave Baumann]

I'd say the release of Titanfall surely had caused some preemptive inventory purchases, similarly the price cut could have convinced some retailers that MS would start to move units.

Of course, but they've move through now, so we can see a channel stuff now based on that

Not to mention that large buyers like Bestbuy likely had to take inventory on an ongoing basis to get product at launch, in retrospect poor decision but at the time nobody would have blinked at a contract which required them to buy x number of consoles a month for the next 12 months.

They wont sign contracts that lead to unsustainable levels of inventory, or those contracts will have break/performance clauses. Besides, judging from my local BB that doesn't seem to be the case given there has consistently been significant allocated but unused shelf space for them, after the post launch volume trail off end cap / isle piles.

 

[bgroovy]

If retailers want to have the holiday bundles on their shelves they would have had to order more inventory. Good luck going into Black friday if all you have is old Kinect units with no games packed in. Considering how cutthroat Holiday sales have gotten between retailers they have incentive to order new SKUs in order to not lose out to other chains or online stores that have them. That's even if they have unsold stock they no longer want.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Major Retailers will just make their own bundles with older units.

 

[chris1515]

I guess we are treating NA as the world again? The gap is more than 1 million.

I speak about US. In Europe the gap is huge and it will continue to grow. Worldwide Sony will win this holidays. Sony sells more PS4 in PAL territory than in the rest of the world.

The PS3 was save by Europe but in Spain for example the ratio was 2 PS3 for 1 360 and now the gap is 7 PS4 for 1 Xbox One...

The gap is and will be massive in Europe... It will be bigger than the PS3/360 gap... This time Sony is not in European market one year later with a 600 euros console with inferior multiplat games...

From the european weekly chart or anecdotal evidence here in France the gap will be much bigger this time...

 

[chris1515]

Well it does give us more insight into Xbox One ship numbers. A bit odd they didn't just wait until they actually hit 10 million. Either way it confirms what we suspected about X1 leading PS4 last two weeks in US. And shows X1 worldwide numbers are not as dire as some make them out.

We can say now 11/12/14 X1 ~10 million shipped. To go with 3.9 end Dec 13 and 5.1 end March 14.

I wonder what they'll be at end of the year then. 12.5? Pretty much all exactly as projected (by me anyway). Maybe a little upside on that, maybe even 13.5. PS4 will be around 20 million+.

For comparison Sony had PS4 at 13.5 million shipped at the end of September. But remember Oct-Nov-Dec will be really big shipping months.

For also comparison, Xbox 360 was at 10.4 million shipped end of December 2006. So, X1 should have a decent lead on that by then. Perhaps 20%+, which isn't spectacular I suppose, and depended on pretty hefty X1 discounting and bundling the last few months. Although to be fair, 360 had a $299 option from the start, and didn't start out at $499. The way I see it if (if, but I suspect) X1 hardware is cheap enough to support the discounting without it being a loss leader (DDR3, not cutting edge GPU), then it's not "cheating" vs 360 in a sense. It's perfectly legitimate strategy to build a weaker console and plan to build market share by selling it at a lower price.

A friend working in videogame retail in France tell me just after the price cut announcement in US that a Microsoft rep come and tell them that they will have discounted bundle in France (maybe Europe?) but it was canceled.

The offer in US is only for two months. It is not a cheap discount, it is expensive for MS...

The Xbox One is cheaper than PS4 where they think they can be competitive US and UK...

 

[bgroovy]

Major Retailers will just make their own bundles with older units.

With copies of games they paid full price for?

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Upset can happen in football, but one can also see probable outcomes. XB1 has had the greater momentum, and it's going into Black Friday with a significantly cheaper console. The odds have to be in XB1's favour at this point even if the final half plays very differently.

If Xbox One sales hadn't increased with Sunset Overdrive scoring nicely and Halo The Master Chief Collection coming out within weeks of each other then that would have been surprising. I hadn't realised MCC was out this month, I thought it was early December

Whether the sales boost holds for the remainder of the two months sale period is one thing, what happens to sales after the sale is over is another and price reverts is another. And you have to wonder, given this deal is only available in the US, what it's costing Microsoft. I'm sure Xbox's European and Asian divisions would like similar sales boosts. Are they actually make a loss here?

 

[Deleted member 11852]

If there was residual stuff already in the channel then retailers and distributers are not going to order more just for the sake of it, they are not on the hook to take anything.

Isn't he hook that Microsoft are selling to retailers at discounted rates for a restricted window. If I were a retailer, knowing I could shift Xbox One stock eventually, perhaps outside of the sale window where your margin will then be higher, I'd be strongly motivated to buy cheap stock.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

And you have to wonder, given this deal is only available in the US, what it's costing Microsoft. I'm sure Xbox's European and Asian divisions would like similar sales boosts. Are they actually make a loss here?

It might well be. Take a loss leader for some decent PR. We even see the first of that now, with a PR release about Awesome Sales Increases where before MS was happier staying quiet. AFAICS pretty much the only talking point regards XB1 sales is NPD, so if they can keep those numbers lively, the press coverage will show a stronger picture than the worldwide numbers.

 

[Phil]

I'll just say, that I am happy to see that Xbox One sales seem to have increased. It's important that they do. Anything other than a moderate success for the Xbox would be bad for the industry IMO. We don't want one of the console makers to feel forced to launch another console early because of lack of success in the current one.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

We don't want one of the console makers to feel forced to launch another console early because of lack of success in the current one.

Don't we?