All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[Rangers]

Wal Mart (largest US retailer) Black Friday ad is now out http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=931252

Xbox One with Master Chief Collection+$30 gift card=$329
Xbox One Assassins Creed Unity bundle=$329

PS4 with GTA V and TLOU remaster=$399
PS4 stand alone with $50 gift card=$399

 

[bgroovy]

Depending on which games you can choose Walmart's online PS4 deal for $449 could be really good, too.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The vast majority of console sales will happen after Thanksgiving. Saying it's sewn up by the 15th is like calling a football game at the end of the first quarter.

Upset can happen in football, but one can also see probable outcomes. XB1 has had the greater momentum, and it's going into Black Friday with a significantly cheaper console. The odds have to be in XB1's favour at this point even if the final half plays very differently.

 

[bgroovy]

I just wouldn't assume 1.5 weeks of positive momentum for the Xbox One is enough to override a year of PS4 dominance going into the Christmas buying season.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

But you would assume the console that's tracking much lower so far this month at Amazon and which costs a lot more thanks for XB1's BF deals can outsell it?

 

[London Geezer]

We also assumed XO would win 'Titanfall month', but in the end it didn't. No harm in waiting a couple weeks for final numbers.

 

[bgroovy]

But you would assume the console that's tracking much lower so far this month at Amazon and which costs a lot more thanks for XB1's BF deals can outsell it?

It's not tracking "much lower". The standalone PS4 remains in the top 20 in the immediate aftermath of the Xbox One's price drop + game bundles launching. The PS4's holiday bundle isn't even hitting until Thanksgiving. So yeah, I think it's absurd to start counting the Xbox chicks weeks before they hatch. I'm not saying the PS4 will definitely come out on top, but anyone acting like a win for Xbox is a forgone conclusion already is being very foolish. Sales for November for these consoles could easily be near 1 million each. Crowing about a sales advantage right now that's probably under 100K is just silly.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

It's not tracking "much lower". The standalone PS4 remains in the top 20 in the immediate aftermath of the Xbox One's price drop + game bundles launching.

XB1 has 8th and 14th places. PS4 has position 16. At the very least, PS4 is selling half as many as XB1 in that table from Rangers, assuming a very close sales amount for 8th, 14th and 16th positions. It could be considerably less. And that's ignoring the earlier top-spots held by XB1.

So yeah, I think it's absurd to start counting the Xbox chicks weeks before they hatch.

We're not counting them before they've hatched - we're counting them as they're hatching. And let's not forget that I was there saying 'don't jump to conclusions' at the beginning of the month and XB1's spike. We're now far enough in that the spike has levelled to an ongoing trend and with enough data to start making sensible predictions rather than wild speculations.

Crowing about a sales advantage right now that's probably under 100K is just silly.

Who's crowing? It's speculation derived from patterns (perhaps in the loosest sense of the word). Everyone who has made mention of XB1 probably coming out on top has also made mention that it's not a forgone thing, but that doesn't change the current information. 1) XB1 has sold significantly better than PS4 so far this month, turning around a year of selling worse. 2) It's significantly cheaper. If you were watching a season of ball games and the Tokyo Blues were beating the Redmond Greens three games to nil, and then in the latest game the Redmond Greens were 15 points up in the first quarter and showing better play on the field, would you expect the game to go the Blue's way because the previous three games had, or the Green's way because in this game, they were currently playing better?

 

[bgroovy]

XB1 has 8th and 14th places. PS4 has position 16. At the very least, PS4 is selling half as many as XB1 in that table from Rangers, assuming a very close sales amount for 8th, 14th and 16th positions. It could be considerably less. And that's ignoring the earlier top-spots held by XB1.

Of course we're ignoring the earlier data since the month to date chart is cumulative and includes everything that has happened up to this point. That the PS4 has gained ground at all in the monthly chart actually implies it is outselling the Xbox One again for the time being now that the price drop bounce has dissipated.

We're not counting them before they've hatched - we're counting them as they're hatching. And let's not forget that I was there saying 'don't jump to conclusions' at the beginning of the month and XB1's spike. We're now far enough in that the spike has levelled to an ongoing trend and with enough data to start making sensible predictions rather than wild speculations.

We don't have nearly enough data to claim any trends have been established. For one, the recent introduction of an Xbox One price drop+bundles introduce an obvious spike and it hasn't been nearly long enough to tell if it sales gains are sustainable. And we're completely ignoring the impact Sony's own holiday bundle can have. To claim we know what is going to happen going forward is to claim the relative desirability of the PS4 at $399 with no games is exactly the same as the PS4 with two major games at the same price in comparison to the Xbox One bundles.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Of course we're ignoring the earlier data since the month to date chart is cumulative and includes everything that has happened up to this point. That the PS4 has gained ground at all in the monthly chart actually implies it is outselling the Xbox One again for the time being now that the price drop bounce has dissipated.

Fair point, I get muddled with whether people are posting current rankings or monthly. XB1 has still significantly outsold PS4, though, no?

And we're completely ignoring the impact Sony's own holiday bundle can have.

It's not ignored - it's weighted. We know the bundles and we know the price tag. Basically it's the same price of entry as it's always been. XB1 OTOH has slashed the price. Knowledge of consumer behaviour is going to lead one to believe that the cheaper box is going to find a wider audience. Now of course, PS4's audience overall could be more, so reaching 5% of them at $400 will result in more total sales than XB1 could achieve reaching 25% of its potential audience at $330 (or whatever the %age values are), but that's dealing with unknowns. The known's here are that XB1 is considerably cheaper than PS4, meaning it's within reach of more consumers than PS4 which will result in more potential buyers where price is a limiting factor. It's also a significant price drop for BF, with consumers knowing the price will rise afterwards so be keen to capitalise on the offer while it's available. PS4 consumers will be no worse off if they wait so there's less impetus to buy now.

To claim we know what is going to happen going forward is ...

No-one's claiming that. It's speculation, subject to change, looking for clues as to what might happen. So I repeat the clues:

1) To date, XB1 has sold at least 2x as many units as PS4 on Amazon, the first time it's been ahead in a year
2) It's getting a significant, short-term price drop in November

For PS4 to beat it, it'd need more consumer interest at a higher price-point. Looking at the US sales (something like 1.5:1 PS4:XB1 at $400 each), do you think more people are interested in PS4 at $400 than people are interested in XB1 at $330?

 

[Prophecy2k]

No-one's claiming that. It's speculation, subject to change, looking for clues as to what might happen. So I repeat the clues:

1) To date, XB1 has sold at least 2x as many units as PS4 on Amazon, the first time it's been ahead in a year

Correct me if i'm wrong but I don't think you can in any way deduce that from cumulative sales RANKINGS, given that the difference between the top spot and the 20th could be a very small fraction of the total sold for the item at the top of the ranking list.

That Xbone and PS4 are at 8th and 14th positions in a rankings, does not mean that the Xboxone has sold more than double the PS4's sales...?

E.g. if the sales look like

Positions
1. = 1000 units sold
2. = 998
8. = 895
14. = 880

Clearly item in position 8. hasn't sold twice as many as item in position 14.

 

[iroboto]

Correct me if i'm wrong but I don't think you can in any way deduce that from cumulative sales RANKINGS, given that the difference between the top spot and the 20th could be a very small fraction of the total sold for the item at the top of the ranking list.

That Xbone and PS4 are at 8th and 14th positions in a rankings, does not mean that the Xboxone has sold more than double the PS4's sales...?

E.g. if the sales look like

Positions
1. = 1000 units sold
2. = 998
8. = 895
14. = 880

Clearly item in position 8. hasn't sold twice as many as item in position 14.

As per your example. It Xbox owns position 2 and 8. Those two combined is double position 14. There was a time when all 3 SKUS were charting higher than ps4. But the SO bundle is limited and completely sold out.
Edit: to further expand. 2x the sales is the worst case scenario, or the scenario in your example. Shifty already considered that point. But the reality is if the numbers are that close for ranking in terms of sales volume we would see a lot more variability in rankings, every day there should be lots of movement. But we don't see that.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Correct me if i'm wrong but I don't think you can in any way deduce that from cumulative sales RANKINGS, given that the difference between the top spot and the 20th could be a very small fraction of the total sold for the item at the top of the ranking list.

That Xbone and PS4 are at 8th and 14th positions in a rankings, does not mean that the Xboxone has sold more than double the PS4's sales...?

You're right, but XB1 has two positions above PS4 (8th and 14th vs. PS4's 16th place), so we know it has sold a minimum of twice as much. How? The smallest difference between any position is one unit. Therefore 16th place == n units. 14th place >= n+2 units. 8th places is >= n+8. Total XB1 sales therefore >= 2n+10 units. At a very minimum it's sold twice as much. And if the difference between eighth place and 14th is significant, it could be much more.

 

[Goodtwin]

Nintendo Wii U Black Friday Deal at Best Buy is $360 for a Wii U Mario 3D World Bundle that includes Nintendo Land, Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze, and Smash Bros. That's one heck of a bundle if you enjoy Nintendo's software. 3D Wolrd is a marvelous 3d platformer, nearly perfectly replicating 2D Mario games in a 3D setting. DKC TF is the often regarded as the best platformer of the generation, Smash Bros has a big following (ironically I am not a fan), and Nintendo Land is a good game to play with family and friends. It will be interesting to watch, because I think Nintendo will surpass its fiscal year projections for Wii U hardware sales before the end of their 3rd quarter.

 

[zed]

and it's going into Black Friday with a significantly cheaper console. The odds have to be in XB1's favour at this point even if the final half plays very differently.

Yes judging by Rangers prices for walmart (& I assume other places in the US its a similar price ratio) The xbone is ~18% cheaper than a ps4. Now that is a large difference in price

 

[Dave Baumann]

http://news.xbox.com/2014/11/xbox-one-sales-on-the-rise?linkId=10514459

The response to this wave of blockbuster game releases and new bundles has been amazing, and sales have skyrocketed since the new price took effect on Nov. 2. Compared to the previous week, Xbox One sales in the US have more than tripled, which is exciting as more and more friends will be playing together this holiday. As we head into the busy holiday season Xbox One led generation 8 console sales in the US for the past two weeks. Shortly, we will have sold in to retailers more than 10 million Xbox One consoles.

 

[chris1515]

I don't know how someone can doubt the victory of MS for November and December... The real question is by how much unit they will beat Sony. And after this two months what will be the gap between PS4 and Xbox One. I doubt they can close a 1 million gap in two months but maybe they can reduce the gap by 400/500 k unit...

 

[DrJay24]

I guess we are treating NA as the world again? The gap is more than 1 million.

 

[DieH@rd]

I can't believe that they have resorted to these kind of tactics. Not only they did not reported either sales or shipment numbers for entire year, but now they have moved to "shortly we will ship X".

Sony could say the same, but this time instead of 10 million, they can say "shortly we will be at 20 million".

Pointless PR.

 

[Shortbread]

http://news.xbox.com/2014/11/xbox-one-sales-on-the-rise?linkId=10514459

So, Sony has October NPD (tomorrow) wrapped up as expected... hence this unexpected MS PR.