All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[djskribbles]

Ya, from what we know, MS is breaking about even and Sony is taking a slight loss on the PS4. I don't see MS dropping the price any time soon, and I don't think they'll need to. They may not keep up with Sony worldwide, but I think they'll be fine.

 

[temesgen]

Ya, from what we know, MS is breaking about even and Sony is taking a slight loss on the PS4. I don't see MS dropping the price any time soon, and I don't think they'll need to. They may not keep up with Sony worldwide, but I think they'll be fine.

well that's why I commented, people posted for months how the XB1 was making a profit on the hardware but its not accurate. Both consoles are sold for a modest loss, now we keep hearing how the price will be cut to match the PS4 which again is not likely till we have a silicon shrink which the XB1 should benefit more from due to the memory set up but I don't see either platform being sold for a substantial loss anytime soon.

Edit: once we do move to a smaller process we'll still have the cost of Kinect to factor in which offsets any cost savings due to the use of cheaper memory

 

[Rangers]

These numbers don't do that yet. One need only point to Wii U - 3 million sold just as quickly, and that was it. Not that I believe that'll happen with either current-gen console, but a strong launch isn't proof of anything, and we'll need sustained sales to disprove the naysayers.

I think next gen consoles have already proved to have way more demand than Wii U. PS4 outsold Wii U's lifetime UK sales in 48 hours or something like that.

For XBO, lets just take NPD, it was over 900k in Nov where Wii U was ~400k it's first Nov.

There are tangible, large improvements over Wii U sales by both consoles, and then you have to factor in they both are/were much more heavily supply constrained than Wii U ever was, which is another indicator of stronger demand.

I dont recall Wii U's 3 million sales you mention or how it broke down, but if it was a legit figure, they also probably had a good deal of Japanese sales helping that.

Software sales AFAIK still remain rather flat, which could be worrisome. But I'm not sure how digital might be affecting that.

Ya, from what we know, MS is breaking about even and Sony is taking a slight loss on the PS4. I don't see MS dropping the price any time soon, and I don't think they'll need to. They may not keep up with Sony worldwide, but I think they'll be fine.

Pretty much. To me the practical effect of 2, 3m, is you already cant really ignore the XBO userbase as a 3rd party, even if Ps4's is larger.

But now it gets more interesting as XBO has hit the point of demand saturation and PS4 has not. So the next round of sales numbers are awaited with bated breath. I fear XBO sales have slowed very drastically. Partly from that day I was able to watch Amazon sales more or less in real time. At one point XBO was having difficulty selling 100 an hour on Amazon, where in the last PS4 burst I was able to track it was doing 1K Plus an hour.

 

[dobwal]

It would taking the XB1 tanking in sales for the MS to consider a price cut. Even then I think they would struggle along, like Sony and the PS3, as far as they could before engaging in a price cut.

Moving from a "25 million units sold" lossy endeavor to a "80 million units sold" lossy endeavor isn't that great of an accomplishment for company engaged in the business of profit generation. And I think MS is looking for this generation to be profitable and provide justification for their presence in this market.

 

[Rangers]

3m breaking it down a bit. Right off the bat it probably guarantees ~1m Dec NPD.

Previous XBO sales numbers I recall (dont remember exact cutoff dates)

~900k Nov NPD

364k UK

64K AU (early on)

So you'd be looking at 1.3m+ with presumably a 1m+ Dec NPD outstanding.

In 360 gen, you could rule of thumb figure Xbox UK sales where roughly equal to the rest of EU sales. I dont know if that still holds with XBO, my hunch is it might be lower, but that can account for another up to ~400k sales.

And then there's Canada, usually 5-10% of US sales, so another 100-200k there through Dec.

Sony should release some figures at CES I'd guess. Maybe 4m?

I'm kind of surprised MS would lreave themselves "vulnerable" to Sony coming out and saying "we've sold 4m" or whatever, and the press running with PS4>XBO stories. So part of me wonders if MS has some insight into PS4 sales and knows they aren't greatly over 3m therefore it was safe to announce this. But I'm probably overthinking it.

I think this also proves the point I constantly try to make that the 13 countries MS launched in make up the VAST majority of the market. Does anyone think they could have sold 3x+ as many if they were in 48 countries like Sony (after all it's >3x as many countries!)? Not even close. There is a major diminishing returns effect there.

If I remember the biggest markets (in terms of consoles sales, not raw population) MS omitted were Belgium, Netherlands, and the Nordics. I bet all those combined would have amounted to a few tens of thousands of additional sales only.

 

[Shortbread]

PlayStation 4 has slight sales advantage in US following holiday supply issues

I guess the sales numbers are pointing in the right direction... PS4 might lead Decembers NPD, or not. Or maybe, just maybe, it will end in some weird cosmic tie for December.

Anyhow, I can also confirm Wal-Mart did have two major shipments of PS4s during the last two weeks of December, totaling 107k units in all. But this pales in comparison than the 350k units GameStop sold during PS4 US launch. But still a nice stockpile... sold stockpile anyhow.

 

[temesgen]

I will be very surprised if Sony wins December NPD, tactically MS placed an emphasis on US market while Sony was gearing up for their European launch so I don't see where the supply would come from for Sony to sell hundreds of thousands of systems and provide units for other markets not to mention the logistical issues of getting supply to the US from Asia.

Brit raised a good question last week, do we know what the production numbers are for either platform?

Edit: rereading the article I don't think that Gamestop figures give enough of an indication of the overall market....

 

[McHuj]

We keep getting comments about a price drop but as far as we know from what has been reported that the XB1 is priced at the BOM. How is MS going to cut the cost and if they do cut the cost wouldn't that imply a potential cut in price for PS4 as well? Granted a silicon shrink would allow them to cut cost in a material way but we're a ways a way from that....

I'm sure there are improvements in manufacturing that can be made to lower the costs.

There were articles claiming that a year after launch, Microsoft was able to cut 40% from the 360 BOM in one year without a shrink. http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20061120132150.html

So I'm hoping that they can reduce the price, the more they sell. The quicker it should scale down.

 

[Shortbread]

Brit raised a good question last week, do we know what the production numbers are for either platform?

I always believed 900k to a million units a month from Foxconn. But I never factored in that Sony itself may actually be manufacturing PS4s somewhere within their factories.... which would explain why some PS4s have made in Japan on them. Sony could be producing 300-400k some units themselves...

 

[temesgen]

I'm sure there are improvements in manufacturing that can be made to lower the costs.

There were articles claiming that a year after launch, Microsoft was able to cut 40% from the 360 BOM in one year without a shrink. http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20061120132150.html

So I'm hoping that they can reduce the price, the more they sell. The quicker it should scale down.

What is MS going to be able to do that Sony can't? That is the point - we keep hearing how XB1 should cost the same as PS4 but price doesn't occur in a vacuum.

Kinect adds substantially to the cost of XB1 just as memory adds to the cost of PS4, I don't see either getting a major change in price that isn't matched by what the competitor can do for now.

A smaller process will help out the XB1 at some point for sure but we aren't there yet.

 

[Tap In]

With the next 343i game this year, they might not see a need to do that just yet. Seems premature. I could see them trying to pack more "value" in with a larger hdd for the holidays or simply download codes of year-old titles (if anything). *shrug*

yep Ryse, DR3 or Forza codes could be packed in all-day long later this year and are very compelling games

 

[temesgen]

I always believed 900k to a million units a month from Foxconn. But I never factored in that Sony itself may actually be manufacturing PS4s somewhere within their factories.... which would explain why some PS4s have made in Japan on them. Sony could be producing 300-400k some units themselves...

Are you able to get figures for sales of PSN and LIVE cards from your retailers? That would truly be interesting data....

 

[AlphaWolf]

What is MS going to be able to do that Sony can't? That is the point - we keep hearing how XB1 should cost the same as PS4 but price doesn't occur in a vacuum.

Kinect adds substantially to the cost of XB1 just as memory adds to the cost of PS4, I don't see either getting a major change in price that isn't matched by what the competitor can do for now.

A smaller process will help out the XB1 at some point for sure but we aren't there yet.

I don't expect any price changes in the near future but it wouldn't shock me if in 2 years xb1 with kinect is around the same price as the PS4. I imagine a lot of the cost of kinect will be reduced with production volume and a die shrink will help MS a bit more than it will help Sony.

 

[Shortbread]

Are you able to get figures for sales of PSN and LIVE cards from your retailers? That would truly be interesting data....

I can try... But that's not going to tell us anything PS4/XB1 specific (sales wise), as those cards also entail PS3/XB360 usage as well.

For what it's worth, PS4 software attachment ratio is higher, something like 2:1, IIRC. But this doesn't take into account digital sales, which could go either way.

 

[temesgen]

I can try... But that's not going to tell us anything PS4/XB1 specific (sales wise), as those cards also entail PS3/XB360 usage as well.

For what it's worth, PS4 software attachment ratio is higher, something like 2:1, IIRC. But this doesn't take into account digital sales, which could go either way.

if we had historical PSN and LIVE figures to compare I think it could be useful.

Interesting that the attach ratio looks as it does, personally I felt the launch window slightly favored XB1 but that is just my own personal preference in software...

 

[Shortbread]

if we had historical PSN and LIVE figures to compare I think it could be useful.

Really give me some time on that one...

Interesting that the attach ratio looks as it does, personally I felt the launch window slightly favored XB1 but that is just my own personal preference in software...

This is mild indicator of how things (software wise) might look for the moment.

http://metro.co.uk/2014/01/06/fifa-14-on-ps4-is-first-uk-number-one-of-2014-4251173/

Sony’s new console accounted for 31 per cent of all FIFA 14 sales last week, compared to 24 per cent each for the Xbox One and Xbox 360.

This is despite the fact that Microsoft went to some considerable effort to organise not only limited edition hardware bundles with a free copy of FIFA 14 (most of which have now been sold out) but also exclusive content in terms of the Legends mode of FIFA Ultimate Team.

 

[Eolirin]

if we had historical PSN and LIVE figures to compare I think it could be useful.

Interesting that the attach ratio looks as it does, personally I felt the launch window slightly favored XB1 but that is just my own personal preference in software...

The Xbox One is more expensive, so that could be contributing to the purchase of fewer games.

 

[AlphaWolf]

@Shortbread

I'm not sure how you're getting to a 2:1 attach rate with that example. That actually looks really good for MS considering the location of the Fifa fan base.

 

[Shortbread]

I'm not sure how you're getting to a 2:1 attach rate with that example. That actually looks really good for MS considering the location of the Fifa fan base.

By the actual sales at BB/GS... it's not a far stretch to think it happening across most retailers. But I will concede, it's showing a 2:1 ratio at those particular retailers. IMHO, MS should be scorching Sony a$$ when it comes to FiFa 14 UK sales... but whatever.

 

[Shortbread]

The Xbox One is more expensive, so that could be contributing to the purchase of fewer games.

Same thing I was thinking. More disposable income for PS4 purchasers. If I'm not mistaken, XB360 sold far more software than PS3, especially when PS3 launched a premium price.