All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[Deleted member 86764]

PS4 Destiny bundle is still doing very well... still the #1 leading bundle sku for this month. The XB1 Sunset Overdrive bundle (preorders) is tracking fairly low, the game as well.

November Preorders: Actually shows COD:AW preorders tracking lower than Ghost by a significant margin... which is shocking.

The number one game in preorders for November (so far) is GTA V.

Please remember people, these are preorders... so a lot can change during the actual release date.

It's a bit of a weird situation with COD-AW. I am definitely one of those guys like loves the series, but maybe it's the utter disappointment with Ghosts that has slowed people's excitement for the series. I keep thinking "Advance Warfare is out next month", only not getting excited about it like I have for the previous games. There are many other games that I'd rather play right now..

Can't wait to see NPD's hardware numbers for September. It's one of those months that's fairly hard to predict. Fingers crossed for decent sales of BOTH machines though.

 

[Phil]

On the topic of COD:AW - and as a owner of Ghosts - I can only say that BF4 has spoilt me. Back on last generation, it was effectively a BF3 @ 30fps vs. CoD @ 60fps. Now that both are 60fps, I have found that I much enjoy and prefer the gameplay of BF4 to that of Ghosts or any other CoD before it. I don't think I'll be going back to any CoD in the future as long as EA/Dice stay on path.

I also don't like what they have shown of Advanced Warfare. I'd rather have another Modern Warfare to another futuristic type shooter.

 

[Shortbread]

On the topic of COD:AW - and as a owner of Ghosts - I can only say that BF4 has spoilt me. Back on last generation, it was effectively a BF3 @ 30fps vs. CoD @ 60fps. Now that both are 60fps, I have found that I much enjoy and prefer the gameplay of BF4 to that of Ghosts or any other CoD before it. I don't think I'll be going back to any CoD in the future as long as EA/Dice stay on path.

I also don't like what they have shown of Advanced Warfare. I'd rather have another Modern Warfare to another futuristic type shooter.

Somewhat off topic... Last night after playing a long session of Alien Isolation, I watched "Edge of Tomorrow" which reminded me of COD:AW. The exo-units, not the alien part. lol

Pretty good movie by the way... more of a scifi dark comedy than anything else.

 

[Sonic]

It's a bit of a weird situation with COD-AW. I am definitely one of those guys like loves the series, but maybe it's the utter disappointment with Ghosts that has slowed people's excitement for the series. I keep thinking "Advance Warfare is out next month", only not getting excited about it like I have for the previous games. There are many other games that I'd rather play right now..

Can't wait to see NPD's hardware numbers for September. It's one of those months that's fairly hard to predict. Fingers crossed for decent sales of BOTH machines though.

It will be interesting to see if CoD sales this generation cools off dramatically versus last. It could prove very troublesome for Activision as if CoD goes down in sales as well as decreasing WoW memberships then their cash streams dry up. Can they replace them with other titles/series will be interesting. Every gen it seems a different game series comes along and ends up dominating sales and not always crossing over so well in subsequent gens. GTA series continue to dominate in a way most series haven't been able to pull off and I believe it's because the game gets better with each iteration. I really can't wait to see what GTA6 will be like.

Agreed on NPD sales as well. I would like both machine to have respectable sales. MS had those sales and deals going on which should have moved a lot of units. It would be nice if they got around 250 - 300k units total sold. Anything more than that would be fantastic news for them though unlikely. PS4 I imagine will push north of 400k units sold for the month but think it will be between 450 - 500k units sold. If they manage more than half a million units sold for the month then that really sets them up for having great momentum going into the holiday season.

 

[Prophecy2k]

It will be interesting to see if CoD sales this generation cools off dramatically versus last. It could prove very troublesome for Activision as if CoD goes down in sales as well as decreasing WoW memberships then their cash streams dry up. Can they replace them with other titles/series will be interesting.

Well, Activision have certainly done a good job priming Destiny as the next big game to pick up from where COD left off. That's assuming of course the backlash from the mixed reviews don't permanently stain the series (something that often happens with games that overhype and underdeliver).

Every gen it seems a different game series comes along and ends up dominating sales and not always crossing over so well in subsequent gens. GTA series continue to dominate in a way most series haven't been able to pull off and I believe it's because the game gets better with each iteration. I really can't wait to see what GTA6 will be like.

GTAIV wasn't arguably better than GTA:SA. In fact outside of the graphics I would argue that it was unanimously regarded as worse in every way after the initial launch hype died down. GTAV was incredible though, and a return to form for a series that appears to be incontestable at this point.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

It will be interesting to see if CoD sales this generation cools off dramatically versus last. It could prove very troublesome for Activision as if CoD goes down in sales as well as decreasing WoW memberships then their cash streams dry up.

WoW subs always drop toward the end of lifetime of an expansion and resurge with a new expansion, and Warlords of Draenor is due 13th November.

I get the impression that Ghosts did that well. I skipped it but launching amidst the maelstrom of two nextgen console launches it may just have been overlooked by the COD faithful - it clearly wasn't delivering 'nextgenness' in the way AC4 was. COD:AW is doing nothing for me, though. It looks completely disappointing on nextgen, e.g. check out the playthough of the team snaking across the bridge of abandoned cars and engaging enemies. Bullets and explosions everywhere but the cars are immovable objects, as though they are part of the bridge itself. It's advantage this year is Battlefield has abandoned the battlefield so if you want 'war' shooter COD:AW may be your only option.

I really liked the Modern Warfare series but it would be nice if consumers disrupted the lazy sequels of lastgen and forced publishers let developers try something different out of necessary to recover diminishing sales.

 

[Shortbread]

PSN: September Top Digital Downloads

I guess it’s not really surprising, but Destiny swept the charts for September! Commanding the number one spot on both PS4 and PS3, Bungie’s galactic trek has earned its place in consoles worldwide. Anybody finish the Vault of Glass yet?

Minecraft PS4 Edition grabbed second place, with FIFA 15 and Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor making confident entrances. Sword Art Online – Hollow Fragment sits atop the PS Vita charts, with newcomers Don’t Starve: Giant Edition and Danganronpa 2 debuting in the top 5.

1 Destiny
2 Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition
3 FIFA 15
4 Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor
5 inFAMOUS First Light
6 Madden NFL 15
7 NHL 15
8 Diablo III: Reaper of Souls – UEE
9 The Last Of Us Remastered
10 Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition
11 Surgeon Simulator
12 Plants vs. Zombies Garden Warfare
13 Outlast
14 Trials Fusion
15 EA SPORTS UFC
16 MURDERED: SOUL SUSPECT
17 Metro Redux
18 The Golf Club
19 inFAMOUS Second Son
20 Battlefield 4

 

[Rangers]

Was at Wal Mart tonight and noticed a few interesting last gen SKU's. Didn't realize these existed. On the 360 side there were some really good deals. A blue 360 with 500GB and COD Ghosts and Black Ops 2 for $249.

Also there was the 4GB 360 for $179 (usual) and next to it the 4GB with Kinect for $199 (didn't know this was only 199). Only a $20 incremental for Kinect, and a really low price for a Kinect SKU.

I cannot find that 199 w/kinect 360 anywhere online so perhaps it is a new deal, store specific, or something like that? It didn't appear to be a sale or clearance.

For PS3 they had a 500 with Destiny for $269. Didn't know that bundle existed either. And the usual 12GB for 199.

Another interesting thing I noticed is on the webpage, just like the COD 360 bundle the 12GB PS3 was claimed as "Wal Mart exclusive". Yet it's just the standard system. So I did a little googling and it seems true, Amazon only has it for a premium from a reseller (14 available), Gamestop lists it as low stock pretty much everywhere, and Best Buy has it as "no longer available". I guess it seems the 12GB PS3 is literally now Wal Mart exclusive, which seems kind of stupid, but I guess it probably was a low seller anyway.

 

[temesgen]

Was at Wal Mart tonight and noticed a few interesting last gen SKU's. Didn't realize these existed. On the 360 side there were some really good deals. A blue 360 with 500GB and COD Ghosts and Black Ops 2 for $249.

Also there was the 4GB 360 for $179 (usual) and next to it the 4GB with Kinect for $199 (didn't know this was only 199). Only a $20 incremental for Kinect, and a really low price for a Kinect SKU.

I cannot find that 199 w/kinect 360 anywhere online so perhaps it is a new deal, store specific, or something like that? It didn't appear to be a sale or clearance.

For PS3 they had a 500 with Destiny for $269. Didn't know that bundle existed either. And the usual 12GB for 199.

Another interesting thing I noticed is on the webpage, just like the COD 360 bundle the 12GB PS3 was claimed as "Wal Mart exclusive". Yet it's just the standard system. So I did a little googling and it seems true, Amazon only has it for a premium from a reseller (14 available), Gamestop lists it as low stock pretty much everywhere, and Best Buy has it as "no longer available". I guess it seems the 12GB PS3 is literally now Wal Mart exclusive, which seems kind of stupid, but I guess it probably was a low seller anyway.

Those prices still are too high, if either platform could get a unit to retail <&150.00 they might see a nice tale coming out of the last generation in terms of install base. I'm not sure if that can be done profitably and with the cost of used games being what it is I'm not sure it would be smart to sell at a loss. But it will be interesting to see PS4/XB1 drop in price relatively quicker than last generation over time... I think they will.

 

[djskribbles]

Lol at Pachter's estimates:

PS4 = 250K
Wii U = 85K
XB1 = 325K

I have a feeling this is going to be one of his worst predictions ever. Either he completely forgot about the Destiny bundle, or he was on something. His XB1 number could be close (I'm guessing it will 25-75k lower though).

 

[Shortbread]

Lol at Pachter's estimates:

PS4 = 250K
Wii U = 85K
XB1 = 325K

I have a feeling this is going to be one of his worst predictions ever. Either he completely forgot about the Destiny bundle, or he was on something. His XB1 number could be close (I'm guessing it will 25-75k lower though).

He is so far off, its laughable.

 

[Sonic]

He is so far off, its laughable.

Yeah this makes very little sense, even coming from Pachter. He's either talking about black PS4's exclusively or smoking some really good green. Given my assumption he is referencing black PS4's, and going through Amazon charts and other anecdotal evidence it is fair to assume the Destiny/white PS4 sold more. So maybe PS4 will be 500k+ this month which would be pretty pretty good.

If MS does end up selling 325,000 XB1's for September that would be decent going into the holiday season. November is really the make it or break it month for the Bone with Halo and the CoD bundle coming. Those two big titles should help sell plenty of consoles throughout the month. I wouldn't be surprised if PS4 ends up taking CoD sales lead with NPD if the XB1 bundle isn't counted. If MS is able to take November that will give them decent momentum going into December and who knows maybe taking that month as well.

Though I have my doubts. PS4 has outsold XB1 every month this year so far and doesn't look to be losing any steam. The dip in August could be counted for being summer months and also anticipation for the Destiny Bundle and it still took the lead. The momentum the machine has got so far is incredible and I'm not sure whether it will slow down or keep on going. The only month I see it really having a chance of losing to XB1 is November, but I wouldn't be surprised if PS4 wins that month either. The holidays could be a repeat of what's been happening most of this year with most people buying PS4 even with Halo and the CoD bundle in November. I am interested to see how it plays out.

 

[Wynix]

Lol at Pachter's estimates:

PS4 = 250K
Wii U = 85K
XB1 = 325K

I have a feeling this is going to be one of his worst predictions ever. Either he completely forgot about the Destiny bundle, or he was on something. His XB1 number could be close (I'm guessing it will 25-75k lower though).

He has to be trolling, just to keep the attention focused on himself.

White PS4 + Destiny bundle killed any chance of the XB1 winning Sept NPD.

 

[Rangers]

I guess the only question is, do you believe Pachter has any kind of actual retail insight? That this would mean anything beyond a simple guess?

This encouraged me to look up his predic last month, and I found this that was interesting from Aquamarine (GAF NPD guru/gurette?)

He conducts a small survey of channel checks from a variety of USA retailers and formulates predictions based on that + NPD precedent.

Originally Posted by Aquamarine

Pachter's predictions:


PS4 - 175K
XBO - 150K
3DS - 90K
WIU - 65K
360 - 45K
PS3 - 30K

Actuals

August 2014

PS4=190k
XB1=160k
Wii U~59.5k
360~49k
PS3~27k
Wii~13.4k
Vita <6k

He looks pretty good there but I imagine that was luck/easy month to pick. I seem to remember him being more wrong in the past. I dont feel like looking up more past months.



Regardless, if it happens I'm pretty sure GAF will literally melt off the face of the earth, so I hope it does just for that

 

[DrJay24]

He looks pretty good there but I imagine that was luck/easy month to pick.

This month is equally easy to pick. Somehow people and Pachter believe the PS4 lost sales over the month before despite the Destiny bundle, the longer month and other indicators?

 

[Shortbread]

Judging by his latest Twitter post, he is backtracking on his predictions. Because he doesn't have any inside knowledge... you don't backtrack when you're right.

My predictions...
PS4 457k
XB1 285k
WiiU 67k

 

[Deleted member 11852]

I guess the only question is, do you believe Pachter has any kind of actual retail insight? That this would mean anything beyond a simple guess?

If by insight you mean a deeper understanding of the industry underpinned by astute observations, I'd say no. Some of his predictions have made no logical sense.

But if by insight you mean information from certain retail and online sales not public then yes. Gathering information like this is what companies like Wedbush Securities do and they'll be paying for the full NPD figures and likely pay any retail/online outlet for information the are willing to provide and will be paying close attention to all shareholder and financials for publicly-traded developers and the platform holders.

I'm not sure how 'serious' an analyst he is, though, or who the paying clients are. To me he comes across as someone who wants to be some kind of gaming scene celebrity.

 

[djskribbles]

I guess the only question is, do you believe Pachter has any kind of actual retail insight? That this would mean anything beyond a simple guess?

This encouraged me to look up his predic last month, and I found this that was interesting from Aquamarine (GAF NPD guru/gurette?)





Actuals



He looks pretty good there but I imagine that was luck/easy month to pick. I seem to remember him being more wrong in the past. I dont feel like looking up more past months.



Regardless, if it happens I'm pretty sure GAF will literally melt off the face of the earth, so I hope it does just for that

The PS4's weekly average in August (a slow month, with people holding off for September and the Destiny bundle) was 47.5k. September is a 5 week period, so that would mean ~238k. So Pachter believes that the PS4 barely received a bump from nearly 3 months of white Destiny bundle pre-orders, and a whole month of total PS4 sales? Yeah... no.

Sony said that the Destiny launch week was the biggest sales week since Christmas. And we have store employees plus Aquamarine saying how the white PS4 bundle is selling a lot, even more than the regular SKU, but with no noticeable drop in regular SKU sales over last month. Plus we saw the Destiny bundle ranking high at all online retailers.

If Pachter has any insider knowledge, then I believe all his predictions tell us is that the PS4 might not be as high as some of us are predicting. I have zero doubt that the PS4 won by a comfortable margin, but I'm starting to doubt my 450-500k prediction now. Then again, I don't believe anything Pachter says. Everything tells me that the PS4 sold a lot in September.

VGChartz can be very wrong too, but I think that even they have more credibility than Pachter. Here are their numbers:
PS4 = 411,949
XB1 = 255,140

They don't have US numbers for the week ending Oct. 4th, just NA numbers, so take off a few thousand on both. But that's much closer to my guesses of 450-500k / 250-300k.

Don't know if VGC adjusted their numbers last month, but these were their August numbers vs NPD:

     [U]VGC:[/U]              [U]NPD:[/U]
PS4: 192966            190k
XB1: 151099            160k

 

[Shortbread]

7:1 is quite a gap...

Does anyone have a list of data on ratios in other territories?

 

[London Geezer]

They can't even spell the name of their country right? How am I meant to trust their figures?