All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[Silent_Buddha]

X1 is doing much better in the US compared to Wii U, its not trouncing Wii U in Europe at this point. PS4 is king, and will be the market leader, its a battle for second, and I dont see to many reasons to own an X1 instead of a PS4. Wii U has exclusives, and price drops to keep it in front of the X1 for quite some time. X1 simply doesnt outpace Wii U by a large enough margin to overtake it in the near future.

You also forget that Xbox One has yet to launch in many European countries. Meaning WiiU and PS4 are being sold in far more countries in Europe than XB1 currently. It'll be interesting to see how monthly number line up once XB1 is officially launched in another 13 European countries come September. It will also be launching in an additional 13 countries worldwide.

I expect PS4 to still do significantly better than XB1 worldwide, but the gap should close a bit with the console going on sale in an additional 26 countries (some of them are potentially large markets like Russia which I believe was a larger market for X360 than it was for PS3). With those added countries the difference between WiiU and XB1 may be pretty darn close at that point.

Regards,
SB

 

[djskribbles]

They won't close the gap by launching in more countries, they will just slow the gap from growing. And even when they launch in the other countries, I doubt it will help them that much. Xbox is just not very big outside of the US/UK. They launched in a select amount of countries for a reason. Plus while it wasn't officially available, some of the people that did want one probably just imported them. And the PS4 was still supply constrained in some parts of europe until fairly recently.

 

[Shortbread]

Destiny XB1 Edition is sitting in the #1 spot on Amazon.

That 1080p footage must have done it... j/k

 

[djskribbles]

Probably because the Xbox beta starts in less than 2 days. This game is gonna be a system mover for both platforms.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

Nintendo actually have some advantages over Microsoft at this point which will certainly put them in a position where they could potentially take that second place in hardware over the coming years.

- Nintendo exclusives
- Japan’s maintained interest
- Japan/Europe’s lack of interest in Xbox One
- WiiU is also more appealing as a second console for a lot of us that own either a PS4 for an Xbox One, because their games tend to compete with one another, whereas Nintendo have a whole catalogue of games that are totally separate in their identity

From what I recall, USA is the largest market for videogames with Europe growing market. So if Nintendo are able to continue to sell more in markets #2 and #3, it could very well come ahead in global sales for the whole generation.

Judging by posts above, it appears that Xbox One had an immediate and large number of sales on release that dramatically reduced in the months that followed – even in the USA, its largest market. Microsoft’s saving grace, that has played a big part in their PR, was that sales were always much higher than when the 360 released (regardless as to whether enough machines were available then and the market being flooded with Xbox Ones now). As Rangers showed above, the recent months have declined when compared to the 360’s release months. I do wonder if this trend continues what the PR spin will become next.

Let us not forget that Microsoft have tried really hard to try and increase/maintain sales and interest by removing their ‘mandatory’ Kinect. Unfortunately, the sales jump hasn’t been significant enough to justify that move, particularly if they actually have further enhanced use of the device planned (which you’d hope has always been on the cards).

But anyway, it’s not a complete disaster – the device has sold millions.

 

[Strange]

Xbox 360 (all approximates)
Global total 82M
USA total 43M
Europe total 25M
Japan total 1.6M

So USA, Europe, Japan accounted for ~70M of Xbox 360s
that leaves 12.4M in the wild...

Total numbers here don't mean much, but the ratios between regions probably do.

Right now Xbox One is sitting on a number of ~4.9 million sold
of that, around 3.1 million is sold in the USA.
1.2 million is sold in Europe.
Japan is both a lost cause and doesn't require explaining.

Assuming that all regions sell through at approximate rates of uptake (which we, in reality, know is not the case), with 3.1 million sold in USA we are expecting them to be able to hit around 5.9 million unit.

However, if anybody's actually paying attention, people that really want a Xbox one probably bought one through import already, so ~6 million is probably the upper limit to Xbox One's current sales potential. So if we take the current ~5M (lower bound) and the upper limit of ~6M possible, it's probably safe to say that if Xbox One is indeed released in all the intended regions, the expected sales number would be around 5.5M or so.



Just food for thought, because very little people here knows about the situation in Asia:

If you live anywhere around this area, you would know that Microsoft lost a lot of love around here due to effectively abandoning the 360 in the past 3~4 years or so. The Asian market is a strange one that gobbles up both Western games (but a large emphasis is placed on translation) as well as Japanese games. Once Microsoft lost Japan and effectively gave up on translating most of the games (which Sony is doing a good job of. They don't have issues with bringing Japanese games over, nor are they easing up on the translation part. You can basically find translated versions of every game released within 1~2 months if not released on the same day), they probably lost a significant portion of the market share here too due to simply not having anything to cater to the gamers here.

Probably because the Xbox beta starts in less than 2 days. This game is gonna be a system mover for both platforms.

Probably also because of the massive influx of positive experiences from the beta from the PS4/PS3 that contributed to people wanting to play the game more on all platforms. PS4 gamers are also turning to PSN to buy it so that takes away a bit from the Amazon preorders.

 

[Goodtwin]

You're right, the XB1 is not trouncing Wii U in Europe at this point. That will likely change later this year when the console releases in more countries and more people decide to upgrade to the current gen from last gen. What is the LTD sales of Wii U in Europe compared to the US? What do those figures tell you about the general interest for Wii U in Europe? And what is considered to the be the near future? I will be surprised if Nintendo retains its second place position by the end of the year.

I agree with you that Sony's got the lion's share of the market. They've executed and performed better than the competition and have the more desirable product.

I think for MS it will be more a game of keeping up with Sony in terms of sales rather than fighting for second place. They will get second place naturally given they have a more desirable machine than Nintendo. They have a console that is more vastly more powerful, has a far superior online experience, has more games coming for it that people want to play compared to Nintendo. While PS4 is more powerful and desirable I imagine the majority of people who look at alternatives will compare XB1 and Wii U and immediately dismiss Wii U while still considering XB1.

The gaming market can be brutal and unforgiving when it comes to boneheaded moves from console manufacturers. Nintendo has fallen from grace. Even with a plethora of quality titles I doubt Wii U will ignite beyond niche status at this point. I could of course be wrong and Nintendo cuts the price to $150 this holiday season and it takes off, but I highly doubt something like this will happen. If they're able to sell 30 million units worldwide by 2017 I'll be impressed.

On the first point, I doubt the unreleased areas will account for a big sales boost. Japan's launch should be pathetic, I would bet less than 50k units on launch week. Microsoft chose its largest markets to launch in first, these unreleased regions will probably only account for a couple hundred thousand units. Why wait on the X1 if the PS4 is already there? PS4 is everything the X1 is and more.

The more desirable machine is totally debatable, and the Wii U is kind of on its own island. X1 and PS4 practically offer the very same software lineup. Wii U offers a very different lineup of software that is not available on competing consoles. X1 and PS4 have no answer for games like Mario 3D World, Mario Kart 8, Pikmin 3, and the extremely popular Smash Bros. Everyone has different taste in software, and Nintendo caters to an audience that honestly, isn't all that well taken care of on other platforms. Is that the largest market segment? No, its not, but it still exist none the less.

I think the consumers that are looking at the consoles, are really either looking at the PS4 and X1, or they are looking solely at the Wii U. The Wii U isn't really offering the same thing. If you want AC, Batman, COD, Madden, Fifa, and Battlefield, then you going to look at the PS4 and X1, but I think the PS4 makes the more logical choice for those consumers. The consumer looking to play Mario Kart 8 and Mario 3D World, then the Wii U is the logical choice. Wii U also makes sense for many gamers as a secondary console, especially after the price gets low, and the lineup of exclusive software is large enough.

Wii U wont sell 30 million units by 2017, I think 20 million units is more likely. I just think people are giving the X1 to much credit. I don't see to many reasons why the X1 will do that much better than the original Xbox did. Microsoft has a very similar product to Sony, but not as good, and the price had to be lowered just to match Sony. Sony is the much bigger brand in Europe and Japan, so those territories wont be propping up the X1 this gen, its all about the US, a territory where the PS4 is still edging it out.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

- Japan’s maintained interest
- Japan/Europe’s lack of interest in Xbox One

Hard to show interest when the console hasn't launched in Japan and most of Europe. That said it is unlikely it'll make significant headway in Japan. However in Europe, it should increase sales to the point where the ratio of consoles sold US:Europe more closes matches what XB360 did.

Either way, Japan is becoming less relevant when it comes to gaming. See below in the Asian section.

Xbox 360 (all approximates)
Global total 82M
USA total 43M
Europe total 25M
Japan total 1.6M

So USA, Europe, Japan accounted for ~70M of Xbox 360s
that leaves 12.4M in the wild...

Total numbers here don't mean much, but the ratios between regions probably do.

Right now Xbox One is sitting on a number of ~4.9 million sold
of that, around 3.1 million is sold in the USA.
1.2 million is sold in Europe.
Japan is both a lost cause and doesn't require explaining.

Assuming that all regions sell through at approximate rates of uptake (which we, in reality, know is not the case), with 3.1 million sold in USA we are expecting them to be able to hit around 5.9 million unit.

It's quite likely that once XB1 is sold in all regions (another 26 countries, 13 of which are European), it'll show the same breakdown as X360 did worldwide. The ~2.58:1 ratio (that clever 3:1 makes it seem much worse than it is) that currently exists between Europe and US for the XB1 should shift closer to the ~1.72:1 ratio that existed for the X360.

As well I hadn't expected the rest of the world (Central and South America, Africa, etc.) to add up to ~12.4 million consoles

However, if anybody's actually paying attention, people that really want a Xbox one probably bought one through import already...

Imports have always been a fairly small proportion of actual sell through.

Just food for thought, because very little people here knows about the situation in Asia:

If you live anywhere around this area, you would know that Microsoft lost a lot of love around here due to effectively abandoning the 360 in the past 3~4 years or so. The Asian market is a strange one that gobbles up both Western games (but a large emphasis is placed on translation) as well as Japanese games. Once Microsoft lost Japan and effectively gave up on translating most of the games (which Sony is doing a good job of.

Asia is going to be an interesting fight in the future. Xbox never lost Japan as they never had Japan in the first place. But Japan does not equal Asia.

X360 was significantly more popular in Asia (not Japan) due to the ease of running pirated software on the system. As it stands, whichever console comes out first with an exploit that allows running pirated software will instantly become the most popular console in most of Asia. Although it may not sell the most software. Look at any software publisher's financial reports and Asia outside of Japan generally represents less than 3% of total software sales although some publishers do better than others at convincing people to buy instead of pirate.

The other big unknown, and the most important one when it comes to the consoles is who will be able to take a lead in China. And that is going to come down to a combination of how well you can jump through government hoops (potentially including bribing key government officials) as well as how well you get the Chinese populace to buy software instead of pirate software or buy pirated software.

Korea also represents a potential growth point for both consoles if you can get the Koreans to play games on consoles instead of PC. PC games dominated the Korean market last time I checked. http://www.gamesinasia.com/south-korea-gaming-market-size/ shows that the Korean gaming market is estimated to be over double that of the Japanese gaming market. Note that those numbers even include mobile gaming. Significant because of claims that the Japanese market isn't stagnant just that gamers are flocking to mobile instead. While that might be true, it's also true that gaming as a whole in Japan is stagnant compared to many other territories/countries.

In other words, while it's nice to be able to sell consoles and games in Japan, it is increasingly becoming less and less relevant and cannot in any way, shape, or form be taken to represent the Asian gaming market.

China has the potential to supplant the US as the single most important territory to target if you want to be really successful with console games. But a lot of things have to fall into place before that happens.

Regards,
SB

 

[zed]

but the gap should close a bit with the console going on sale in an additional 26 countries

near Impossible, the only way for the gap to close is if it starts outselling the ps4, thus the above germany chart instead of haviing 13 ps4 games and 0 xbone games, has a more on the xbone, not gonna happen, even at $100 discount its doubtful. I expect you mean the rate the gap is growing will decrease eg instead of the ps4 in europe outselling the xbone by 500k per month it only outsells it by 450k

if this trend continues what the PR spin will become next.

What PR MS have been near silent the last couple of NPDs

 

[Deleted member 86764]

Agreed, the reason Microsoft haven't released in some EU territories is because they've smaller populations and have less of a tendency to buy Xboxes over other machines. They have already released in EU countries with larger populations.

 

[DieH@rd]

Bad news for MS. They have released their Q4 financial results, and they had only 1.1 million of combined shipments for Xbone and x360.
http://www.microsoft.com/investor/E...s/PressReleaseAndWebcast/FY14/Q4/default.aspx

Last [titanfall] quarter, x360 was 0.8m and Xbone was 1.2m.

3.9 million LTD worldwide shipped Xbox One consoles - As of December 31st, 2013
5.1 million LTD worldwide shipped Xbox One consoles - As of March 31st, 2014
<6 million LTD worldwide shipped Xbox One consoles - As of June 30th, 2014

Still no concrete info about how much Xbone has actually sold to consumers. And yeah, WiiU is still ahead of it.

 

[djskribbles]

What months does that quarter cover, April-June?

 

[DieH@rd]

Yes. That includes 3 week window of the worldwide sales of kinectless SKU.

 

[B Real]

Is 1.1 million worldwide?

 

[djskribbles]

Yes. Based on XB1/X360 sales ratio in the US over the last 3 months, I'd say the XB1 shipments were 600-700k worldwide.

 

[DieH@rd]

Even worse, they have nothing big planned for next quarter software-wize. Sony will decimate them with TLOUR and Destiny sales.

 

[djskribbles]

Well April-June were pretty slow software months as well for XB1, so I expect the next quarter will be a bit higher for MS (slightly higher baseline sales from the Kinectless model, and Destiny). But relative to PS4, it will be quite low. I see Destiny giving the PS4 a much bigger boost because of the bundle, marketing and additional content.

 

[Dave Baumann]

Well April-June were pretty slow software months as well for XB1, so I expect the next quarter will be a bit higher for MS (slightly higher baseline sales from the Kinectless model, and Destiny).

Guidance was up for the division, from $1.4b on the current Q to $1.7-$2 for the next, with the XBOX One release in other regions cited as a primary driver.

Also interesting that Nadella specifically made note of the XBOX division in his opening comments to state the focus of it and address the closure of the XBOX Entertainment division. Sounded to me like they taking the savings from that in order to refocus the expenditure back into games and XBOX Live.

[Edit] Thinking about it, I wouldn't be surprised that the shuttering of the entertainment group was a Phil Spenser driven change.

 

[Deleted member 7537]

1.1 millions shipped (- 360) in 3 months? Not looking good for MS.

 

[BRiT]

This was to be expected given the over shipment (under selling) from the previous quarter. They still shipped far more than I had expected given the prior stuffing of the channels.