All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[Rangers]

Slightly? The 360 was supply constrained and as soon as it wasn't, sales took off. The Xb0x has never been sales constrained so it sold in large numbers to meet initial demand and then tanked.

But you could argue the sales were just moved. People who couldn't get an X360 back in 2006 until May, maybe were able to get their XBO in December. But that means they didn't buy one in May, hurting May sales. The demand was shifted, not disappeared. Also, there wasn't some huge spike in 360 sales in a particular month as it met demand (although sales were above XBO sales in the first 6 months of 2006). I'm 100% sure 360 wasn't supply constrained by June 2006.

All we can say is so far XBO is ahead gen over gen. If that changes then it will have changed.

Sitting at around #50 on Amazon, what does your crystal ball tell you? Just like April was slower than March (both had TF bundles), I would expect it to slow down considerbly, back to the 30k/month it had been doing. What minimal pent up demand the premature $399 announcement pushed from May to June is gone.

Well, for June it was PS4 #8 (plus Destiny bundle top 10) and two XBO SKU's around #50. Does that suggest a 269k-197k sales split? Too me the real sales were much closer than Amazon would indicate, in June. That's been my problem with Amazon.

But yes, I've been noting all along Amazon sales suggest a halving Of XBO demand in July. So it would have to do about 100k to meet that. I'm guessing it will do better than that.

PS4 fell from #6 in May to #8 in June, and it's sales increased June:May on a weekly rate per NPD. Last I looked PS4 had further fallen to #12 for July (even before it went out of stock today apparently). If we go by Amazon we would expect PS4 sales to be falling, too. But that hasn't held up either.

Amazon are not selling the PS4, does that mean they are out of stock?

Looks like it. Odd, did not expect that.

 

[Wynix]

Amazon have the PS4 back in stock.
That was quick!

 

[zed]

Well, for June it was PS4 #8 (plus Destiny bundle top 10) and two XBO SKU's around #50. Does that suggest a 269k-197k sales split?

Prolly something like that,
if you look at any game sales charts it goes
#1/2/3 heaps and then it quickly dies out (depending on whats just been released) look at latest NPD charts for confirmation
being #10 will not sell 5x #50, I guess you'ld be lucky to see 2x

latest NPD numbers
#1 game = 401k
#2 game = 210k
#3 game = 160k
154k
151k
144k
138k
137k
118k
117k #10 game

Im guessing if you could see top 50 it would be something like
#20 = 90k
#30 = 75k
#40 = 65k
#50 = 68k

 

[DrJay24]

The top ten shifts around largely based on software, you can't really argue that #50 is influenced to the same extent. First you argue that Amazon ranking led you to great predictions, now you argue the opposite. I don't think they have much predictive power outside a general "what's hot" trend. #50 is not real hot, #9 is at least warm.

 

[eastmen]

wont the destiny bundle not count until oct when it comes out ? at least in npd numbers

 

[DrJay24]

Ya, so months of pre-orders all dumped in one day's sales.

 

[djskribbles]

Destiny comes out on Sept. 9th. The Destiny bundle could affect PS4 numbers in July/August. But the PS4 will sell a lot in September.

 

[Rangers]

Prolly something like that,
if you look at any game sales charts it goes
#1/2/3 heaps and then it quickly dies out (depending on whats just been released) look at latest NPD charts for confirmation
being #10 will not sell 5x #50, I guess you'ld be lucky to see 2x

latest NPD numbers
#1 game = 401k
#2 game = 210k
#3 game = 160k
154k
151k
144k
138k
137k
118k
117k #10 game

Im guessing if you could see top 50 it would be something like
#20 = 90k
#30 = 75k
#40 = 65k
#50 = 68k

It seems you're just being arbitrary though to rationalize whatever result you like. What makes position #3 the magical cutoff point? Why not #4, 5, 10?

I will say, as far as software, on a national level, big releases like Watch Dogs do really dominate sales near release. So it could be very top heavy at times. Amazon features many products not only software, though.

And pointing at one NPD top 10 doesn't mean much either. I imagine some months #1 sell 1m and #10 90k. Other months #1 might sell 300k and #10 140k.

I guess we could look at Famitsu/Media Create for an idea, as I believe they have numbers for the weekly top 50. Even then, it could vary a lot depending on what big releases are recently released. Which will basically make the chart extremely top heavy, or not.

I also kind of instinctively doubt there's only 27k between #10 and #20 position. That's pretty tightly packed.

Amazon have the PS4 back in stock.
That was quick!

Weirdly I rushed to check how many are in stock using the edit cart to 999 trick. It claims theres only 1 in stock. And this has held for the last few minutes at least.

The fact stock ran out meant there was a golden opportunity to check how fast it was selling and I missed it

Maybe there is literally only 1 in stock and it hasn't sold for the last ten minutes (supposedly there have been exactly 10 day one edition Xbox One's available for days). Or maybe there is some bug.

If it's truly only 1, sometimes, back in the fast selling PS4 checks days, I noticed they get little drips and drabs of 10 or 15 consoles in. I always kind of assumed it was a type of housekeeping, maybe periodically cleaning up the ones people added to their carts but never ended up pulling the trigger on, that type of thing. So possibly not a real restock.

Edit: I just checked on Xbox One, and you can still put 999 in your cart on it.

 

[zed]

It seems you're just being arbitrary though to rationalize whatever result you like. What makes position #3 the magical cutoff point? Why not #4, 5, 10?

like? whats there to like? well its not #3 and thats it, I mean its usually the first few that have big numbers esp #1 towers above the rest often, and then the differences down the list eg from #26->#50 prolly aint that great perhaps even less than 20k total

I imagine some months #1 sell 1m and #10 90k.

possible

Other months #1 might sell 300k and #10 140k.

unlikely
FWIW the month before had
#1 = 569k
#10 97k

edit: actually the unlikely is possible if you dont have any big releases that month, though it still doesnt change the reasonable theory that the differnce from #10 -> #50 prolly aint that much

heres the latest US box office receipts (which show the same pattern, big at top and rapidly falling off)

1 (*) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.........$ 75.0 million
2 (1) Transformers: Age of Extinction .......$ 16.5 million
3 (2) Tammy..................................$ 12.9 million
4 (4) 22 Jump Street.........................$ 6.7 million
5 (5) How to Train Your Dragon 2 ............$ 5.9 million
6 (6) Earth to Echo..........................$ 5.5 million
7 (3) Deliver Us From Evil...................$ 4.7 million
8 (7) Maleficent.............................$ 4.2 million
9 (**) Begin Again............................$ 2.9 million
10 (8) Jersey Boys............................$ 2.5 million

now I dont think theres gonna be a massive differnce between #10 and #50 certainly not more than 2.5million

 

[JPT]

No No No!!!!!! If you have a great idea, produce a great product before having a modicum of common sense to research the market to see if the same product already exists, it's not BAD LUCK. It's stupidly bad business planning.

At some point you have to make a decision to create a product out of your idea. Or you can wait until you have all the information, but then the chance of it being late to market or replaced by something else is bigger.

In most scenarios you have an incomplete picture of the situation and just have to make a decision, in hindsight when you get more information you can judge whether you where right or not. So there is some amount of "luck", then again you do make your own luck, the better prepared etc you are. But unless you wait for everything to be clear, there are usually "big" areas that depends on chance. And when its clear you are probably not the only one to see it

 

[Rangers]

I can continue to only put 1 PS4 in my cart at Amazon. Either a weird bug or maybe they're fixing the 999 trick one item at a time?

 

[Goodtwin]

"That site" leaked full software #'s by SKU, too. Good and rare stuff like the old days

Wii U Mario Kart 8 401k
PS4 Watch Dogs 210k
PS4 UFC 160k
360 Watch Dogs 154k
360 Minecraft 151k
PS3 Minecraft 144k
3DS Tomodachi Life 138k
XBO Watch Dogs 137k
XBO UFC 118k
PS3 Watch Dogs 117k

Awesome legs for Mario Kart 8. Wii U saw a nice bump in the month of June from MK8. World wide sales for Wii U should put it in second place for the month of June. I wasn't sure if the spike at the end of May could carry over into the month of June or not, but the numbers look solid. It wont be competing for 1st place any time soon, but these types of figures position the Wii U as a viable product again.

 

[zed]

Awesome legs for Mario Kart 8.

mate it practically launched in that month, I think it only had a couple of days sales in the previous month. But yes the wii U is giving the xbone a run for its money it looks doubtful whether the xbone will overtake the wii u this year, at the start of the year it was, which month of 2014 it would happen?

 

[Goodtwin]

mate it practically launched in that month, I think it only had a couple of days sales in the previous month. But yes the wii U is giving the xbone a run for its money it looks doubtful whether the xbone will overtake the wii u this year, at the start of the year it was, which month of 2014 it would happen?

True, but so many games these days are severely front loaded with their sales, and MK8 looks like it could maintain weekly sales above 50K world wide for quite some time.

X1 will not overtake Wii U this year, perhaps not even in 2015. Even though Wii U gets trounced in the US, its not in Europe, and Nintendo has a 100% advantage in Japan. X1's Japanese launch will be painful to watch. If the PS4 is off to a slow start in Japan, X1 will die on arrival. I would guess that Wii U will go into 2015 with about a million unit lead on the X1, and over the course of 2015.

 

[Sonic]

True, but so many games these days are severely front loaded with their sales, and MK8 looks like it could maintain weekly sales above 50K world wide for quite some time.

X1 will not overtake Wii U this year, perhaps not even in 2015. Even though Wii U gets trounced in the US, its not in Europe, and Nintendo has a 100% advantage in Japan. X1's Japanese launch will be painful to watch. If the PS4 is off to a slow start in Japan, X1 will die on arrival. I would guess that Wii U will go into 2015 with about a million unit lead on the X1, and over the course of 2015.

The only way I see this happening is if Sony completely annihilates Microsoft in terms of sales for this holiday season. This is with factoring in Wii U's presence in Japan. MS knows Japan is a lost cause and a diminishing market so it's best not to spend significant money to even attempt at succeeding there. And how is the Wii U getting trounced in the US but not Europe? Does the Wii U have a larger userbase in Europe than it does in North America?

MK8 may be able to retain high weekly sales if people continue to purchase the console in decent numbers. Wii U worldwide numbers might be near 7 - 7.5 million now? So at least they finally sold more consoles than they sold copies of GCN MK.

I just don't see it happening for Nintendo unless they do something extremely brilliant with Wii U and MS severely fucks up this holiday season. While a good game MK8 is, it doesn't negate that it's on Ninty's least desirable system since the Virtual Boy.

 

[wco81]

They'd need to release 5 or 6 games or 1 every two months. Then again, even if they released that many quality games, many people wouldn't buy more than 2 or 3 right away.

 

[Goodtwin]

X1 is doing much better in the US compared to Wii U, its not trouncing Wii U in Europe at this point. PS4 is king, and will be the market leader, its a battle for second, and I dont see to many reasons to own an X1 instead of a PS4. Wii U has exclusives, and price drops to keep it in front of the X1 for quite some time. X1 simply doesnt outpace Wii U by a large enough margin to overtake it in the near future.

 

[zed]

Does the Wii U have a larger userbase in Europe than it does in North America?

perhaps a little bit bigger but I think its more that the xbox one has zero presense in europe (except for the UK)

here are the latest germany charts, yes the xbone has been released there for months!
01 (02) PS3 MINECRAFT - PLAYSTATION 3 EDITION (AK TRONIC)
02 (01) 3DS TOMODACHI LIFE (NINTENDO)
03 (04) PS3 FIFA FUSSBALL-WELTMEISTERSCHAFT BRASILIEN 2014 (ELECTRONIC ARTS)
04 (03) PS4 WATCH DOGS - BONUS EDITION (UBISOFT)
05 (05) PS4 FIFA 14 (ELECTRONIC ARTS)
06 (07) WIU MARIO KART 8 (NINTENDO)
07 (10) 3DS YU-GI-OH! ZEXAL WORLD DUEL CARNIVAL BUNDLE (KONAMI)
08 (08) PS3 WATCH DOGS - BONUS EDITION (UBISOFT)
09 (20) PS3 FIFA 14 (ELECTRONIC ARTS)
10 (13) PS3 ASSASSIN'S CREED IV - BLACK FLAG (UBISOFT)
11 (15) 3DS ANIMAL CROSSING: NEW LEAF (NINTENDO)
12 (11) PS4 CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD)
13 (12) PS3 CALL OF DUTY: BLACK OPS II (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD)
14 (06) PS4 SNIPER ELITE III - AFRIKA (BANDAI NAMCO GAMES)
15 (21) PS4 ASSASSIN'S CREED IV - BLACK FLAG (UBISOFT)
16 (26) 3DS MARIO KART 7 (NINTENDO)
17 (18) PS4 KILLZONE: SHADOW FALL (SONY COMPUTER ENTERTAINMENT)
18 (22) 3DS POKÉMON Y (NINTENDO)
19 (09) PS3 ONE PIECE: UNLIMITED WORLD RED (BANDAI NAMCO GAMES)
20 (28) 3DS POKÉMON X (NINTENDO)
21 (36) 3DS POKÉMON ART ACADEMY (NINTENDO)
22 (31) 360 MINECRAFT - XBOX 360 EDITION (AK TRONIC)
23 (23) PS4 BATTLEFIELD 4 (ELECTRONIC ARTS)
24 (14) PS4 EA SPORTS UFC (ELECTRONIC ARTS)
25 (33) PS4 INFAMOUS: SECOND SON (SONY COMPUTER ENTERTAINMENT)
26 (25) PS3 BATTLEFIELD 4 (ELECTRONIC ARTS)
27 (24) PC DIABLO III: REAPER OF SOULS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD)
28 (27) PS3 GRAND THEFT AUTO V (TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE)
29 (16) PS3 SNIPER ELITE III - AFRIKA (BANDAI NAMCO GAMES)
30 (29) PS3 CALL OF DUTY: GHOSTS (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD)
31 (19) 360 FIFA FUSSBALL-WELTMEISTERSCHAFT BRASILIEN 2014 (ELECTRONIC ARTS)
32 (30) PS4 WOLFENSTEIN: THE NEW ORDER (BETHESDA SOFTWORKS)
33 (39) 360 GRAND THEFT AUTO V (TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE)
34 (44) PC THE ELDER SCROLLS V - SKYRIM (BETHESDA SOFTWORKS)
35 (17) PC DIVINITY: ORIGINAL SIN (EUROVIDEO)
36 (42) PS3 GRAN TURISMO 6 (SONY COMPUTER ENTERTAINMENT)
37 (38) 360 ASSASSIN'S CREED IV - BLACK FLAG (UBISOFT)
38 (49) 3DS NEW SUPER MARIO BROS. 2 (NINTENDO)
39 (45) 3DS KIRBY: TRIPLE DELUXE (NINTENDO)
40 (62) 360 FIFA 14 (ELECTRONIC ARTS)
41 (50) PS4 NEED FOR SPEED: RIVALS (ELECTRONIC ARTS)
42 (48) PC LANDWIRTSCHAFTS-SIMULATOR 2013 (ASTRAGON)
43 (81) PC WORLD OF WARCRAFT: MISTS OF PANDARIA (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD)
44 (68) PC DIE SIMS 3: STARTER-SET (ELECTRONIC ARTS)
45 (57) PC STARCRAFT II: HEART OF THE SWARM (ACTIVISION BLIZZARD)
46 (43) PC TROPICO 5 - DAY ONE EDITION (KOCH MEDIA)
47 (64) PS3 FIFA 13 (ELECTRONIC ARTS)
48 (51) PS3 THE ELDER SCROLLS V - SKYRIM (BETHESDA SOFTWORKS)
49 (73) PC ASSASSIN'S CREED IV - BLACK FLAG (UBISOFT)
50 (56) 3DS YOSHI'S NEW ISLAND (NINTENDO)

 

[Sonic]

X1 is doing much better in the US compared to Wii U, its not trouncing Wii U in Europe at this point. PS4 is king, and will be the market leader, its a battle for second, and I dont see to many reasons to own an X1 instead of a PS4. Wii U has exclusives, and price drops to keep it in front of the X1 for quite some time. X1 simply doesnt outpace Wii U by a large enough margin to overtake it in the near future.

You're right, the XB1 is not trouncing Wii U in Europe at this point. That will likely change later this year when the console releases in more countries and more people decide to upgrade to the current gen from last gen. What is the LTD sales of Wii U in Europe compared to the US? What do those figures tell you about the general interest for Wii U in Europe? And what is considered to the be the near future? I will be surprised if Nintendo retains its second place position by the end of the year.

I agree with you that Sony's got the lion's share of the market. They've executed and performed better than the competition and have the more desirable product.

I think for MS it will be more a game of keeping up with Sony in terms of sales rather than fighting for second place. They will get second place naturally given they have a more desirable machine than Nintendo. They have a console that is more vastly more powerful, has a far superior online experience, has more games coming for it that people want to play compared to Nintendo. While PS4 is more powerful and desirable I imagine the majority of people who look at alternatives will compare XB1 and Wii U and immediately dismiss Wii U while still considering XB1.

The gaming market can be brutal and unforgiving when it comes to boneheaded moves from console manufacturers. Nintendo has fallen from grace. Even with a plethora of quality titles I doubt Wii U will ignite beyond niche status at this point. I could of course be wrong and Nintendo cuts the price to $150 this holiday season and it takes off, but I highly doubt something like this will happen. If they're able to sell 30 million units worldwide by 2017 I'll be impressed.

 

[Sonic]

The German market seems to prefer Sony consoles and Nintendo portables. Is this chart weekly or monthly? There one Wii U games and a few 360 games and the rest going to Sony consoles and 3DS. Did Titanfall place in the top 10 when it was released in Germany or even the weeks or month after?