All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[Prophecy2k]

I think the XB1 has the chance to overtake the PS4 in the US over the fall period. Not in terms of LTD, absolute installed base numbers, but certainly in monthly sales over the calender fourth quarter (i.e. Oct, Nov and Dec).

Sony is in the unfortunate position of not having any of their big gun first party exclusives ready for fall 2014, and while Destiny will be big for PS4 in the US, I think the combination of COD:AW, Halo Collection and Sunset Overdrive may end up tipping the balance in MS' favour into Christmas period. It will be very interesting to watch.

Globally however I think it'll be a very different story, and multiformat titles plus Driveclub in the EU will ensure Sony's dominance in all territories outside of the states.

Sony really needs some Japanese games though too, as their situation in Japan will not change at all until they can get their console into Japanese gamers' hands with some big locally developed games.

 

[zupallinere]

They have a more expensive/ less powerful system.
If the Xbox One + Kinect + Biggest Xbox exclusive of the year (aka Titanfall) for 449 didn't sell. Why would you expect the

Xbox One + ..... to sell for only 50 dollar less? it has significantly less value.

The price change won't do anything in the existing marktets. We need to look at september how the One will perform in the new areas.

I think that The ONE at 399 will do quite well in June. Even though it's the same price as how many laggards were waiting for a price cut, a kinectless sku or the ability to play some halo on The ONE this year

How folks monetize the difference in performance is a different issue. If you are in the know there will be some prices differential expected if you are not in the know or don't care price parity will be fine for the near future at least

 

[Arwin]

I think sales during this holiday period may actually become supply limited. The combination of hot MP titles and a few exclusives may already be enough to push the sales to become supply limited again. Then who sells the most may depend more on who is willing to gamble more on increasing supply than actual demand, at least for a while.

Also, people switching from Xbox 360 to PS4 have more to be excited about, and that may be a bigger market ...

I don't know how relevant Japan is right now. They don't seem to be into home consoles at all anymore, mobile devices is all that matters?

Dropping Kinect will matter a lot for the Xbox One, I agree. But assuming a high last gen market penetration, the biggest challenge remains in keeping 360 owners from moving to PC or PS4.

 

[djskribbles]

I think the XB1 has the chance to overtake the PS4 in the US over the fall period. Not in terms of LTD, absolute installed base numbers, but certainly in monthly sales over the calender fourth quarter (i.e. Oct, Nov and Dec).

Sony is in the unfortunate position of not having any of their big gun first party exclusives ready for fall 2014, and while Destiny will be big for PS4 in the US, I think the combination of COD:AW, Halo Collection and Sunset Overdrive may end up tipping the balance in MS' favour into Christmas period. It will be very interesting to watch.

Globally however I think it'll be a very different story, and multiformat titles plus Driveclub in the EU will ensure Sony's dominance in all territories outside of the states.

Sony really needs some Japanese games though too, as their situation in Japan will not change at all until they can get their console into Japanese gamers' hands with some big locally developed games.

I think Sony will continue to outsell the XB1 in the US until Halo 5 releases. This SKU will give the XB1 a bump, but I don't see it being significant. Remember the PS4 outsold the XB1 by almost 2:1 last month. And also remember the XB1 Titanfall bundle has been $450 (or less in some places) in March and the PS4 still comfortably outsold the XB1. Titanfall was one of the most hyped games of the year.

The biggest game coming out in the fall is Destiny, and Sony has marketing rights, exclusive content, as well as a white PS4 bundle (which is actually a decent value at $449). Then it's Forza Horizon 2 / Sunset Overdrive vs DriveClub / LittleBigPlanet 3 going into the holiday season. MS will have exclusive marketing rights for CoD and it appears Sony will have marketing rights for BF.

I think this SKU will bring the XB1 closer to the PS4, but I don't see it overtaking the PS4. It might edge it out in June, but I think the PS4 will retain its lead afterwards (again, until Halo 5).

 

[Deleted member 86764]

Pretty sure it's doing better in stores. I wouldn't place to much emphasis on amazons list

I don't understand this logic, in clinical research drugs are tested on sample sizes of between just a few patients to thousands of patients (depending on the phase of trial) and this data is used to define the efficacy of drugs in human trials. Are we assuming that the sample size of Amazon (probably in the millions) is somehow not relevant to getting an idea of how the general populous spend their money? Regardless of some minor variances in online Vs retail.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

I don't understand this logic

I'm also keen to understand why, to some, Amazon's sales trends are considered irrelevant to wider sales trends, as though Amazon exists in some weirdly unique sales ecosystem.

Has this come from analysis from Amazon trends vs NPD numbers? If so, can somebody please link to it?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I've repeated that observation myself numerous times. For Amazon to not be representative, you'd have to identify Amazon customers as different in buying habits to BnM customers. There's some scope for that argument as buying online requires a different mindset to buying in a store, and some people still don't shop online. Buy for technology, and especially game consoles, the likelihood of the consumer being apprehensive of online shopping strikes me as very low. I'd expect the distribution of customers shopping at Amazon vs. elsewhere to be the same. Those who feel otherwise need to present a decent case why - why would the distribution of people buying on Amazon have different buying habits to those not?

 

[babybumb]

Some reporter asks Gamestop CEO the day it came out(?) how these are selling.. what did he expect him to say?

 

[dobwal]

I've repeated that observation myself numerous times. For Amazon to not be representative, you'd have to identify Amazon customers as different in buying habits to BnM customers. There's some scope for that argument as buying online requires a different mindset to buying in a store, and some people still don't shop online. Buy for technology, and especially game consoles, the likelihood of the consumer being apprehensive of online shopping strikes me as very low. I'd expect the distribution of customers shopping at Amazon vs. elsewhere to be the same. Those who feel otherwise need to present a decent case why - why would the distribution of people buying on Amazon have different buying habits to those not?

You can't assume that one population is like the other just because you have no data to suggest otherwise. The proper course of action is to limit assertions to the population where data is provided.

In 2012 the top selling console for Amazon US was the PS3. Multiple skus, difference in buying habits or a number of other factors could have led to that reality on Amazon. Regardless it doesn't mirror 2012 US NPD sales in terms of order.

Was Wii's Just Dance 2014 the best selling console title of 2013 outside of GTA 5 and COD (if it was that is news to me)? It was for Amazon. For Amazon, Just Dance 4 for the Wii was second to Halo 4 in 2012. Just Dance 3 for the Wii sold more than anything else in 2011? Just Dance 2 for the Wii was #1 in 2010 on Amazon list.

If you just used Amazon's best seller list you would think Wii ports of Just Dance were the biggest titles in the US over the last 4-5 years. They might have been, but just because I don't readily have sales data from other sources, doesn't mean I should think that Just Dance's success on Amazon is mirrored across all US sales during that time period.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

Just Dance 3 for the Wii sold more than anything else in 2011?

I don't know about that, but it certainly sold very, very well.

http://www.computerandvideogames.com/332112/just-dance-sales-top-25-million/

Where did Amazon state that the PS3 sold better than the 360 last year? Also, where's the evidence that they didn't?

 

[Deleted member 86764]

Just because we don't discuss Just Dance here doesn't mean that it isn't a huge hit. I can think of more people that'd play that over COD.

 

[Rangers]

I'm also keen to understand why, to some, Amazon's sales trends are considered irrelevant to wider sales trends, as though Amazon exists in some weirdly unique sales ecosystem.

Has this come from analysis from Amazon trends vs NPD numbers? If so, can somebody please link to it?

I've repeated that observation myself numerous times. For Amazon to not be representative, you'd have to identify Amazon customers as different in buying habits to BnM customers. There's some scope for that argument as buying online requires a different mindset to buying in a store, and some people still don't shop online. Buy for technology, and especially game consoles, the likelihood of the consumer being apprehensive of online shopping strikes me as very low. I'd expect the distribution of customers shopping at Amazon vs. elsewhere to be the same. Those who feel otherwise need to present a decent case why - why would the distribution of people buying on Amazon have different buying habits to those not?

Well just for example, as of through April our latest NPD, Xbox One had sold more software in the USA than PS4 had, in total since next gen launch, according to NPD. Does that seem to be reflected at Amazon? Quite the reverse.

Now granted, I will caveat this, in the monthlies lately continuing, the PS4 version of most multiplats sell better by NPD rankings. The difference is in Xbox's stronger selling exclusives lineup. The ~500k difference between Titanfall and Infamous alone is probably a big part of the reason. That said, I still dont see anything like the NPD figures represented at Amazon.

Another one I recall was one recent year (2012?) I think PSP was the best selling hardware at Amazon. Again, not very representative. Edit: I was wrong, in 2012 PSP was 2nd best selling hardware SKU on Amazon behind PS3 though.

Just yesterday I looked at Gamestop bestseller charts, at least there Kinectless XBO was ranked (slightly) ahead of PS4 hardware (actually, a couple deeply discounted refurbished PS3 bundles were ranked well higher than both). Whereas on Amazon it's not even close.

For whatever reason there does seem to be some Sony sway at Amazon. I dont know why, but Playstation would be beating Xbox much more handily than it seems to be in the USA if we went by Amazon strictly.

Of course nobody references Amazon more than I, they're still fun and informative charts, and the easiest charts to look at.

I will say browsing past years, 360 software does seem to dominate top 100 yearly fairly in line with what you'd expect given NPD at a glance. Although hardware may be a bit skewed, I haven't investigated a ton. So this seems to be currently a PS4 era development. But as evidenced by the PSP thing, any particular retailer could have it's own idiosyncrasies. Another factor that could skew the charts is simply retailer specific sale prices. You see this often in the hourlies, when some odball PC game may shoot to #1 simply because it's 1.99 right now or whatever.

Now as to WHY that is, or that you'd have to prove it, I disagree, all we need to do is compare to NPD to see at times there is a discrepancy. I dont really know why that would be, although I could probably come up with flimsy theories if pressed just like anybody else.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

For whatever reason there does seem to be some Sony sway at Amazon. I dont know why, but Playstation would be beating Xbox much more handily than it seems to be in the USA if we went by Amazon strictly.

I thought that was completely true based off of all sales data? From what I see Amazon states that the PS4 outsells the Xbox One and the charts represent this too. Surely that further backs up the validity of their data?

To be perfectly honest, I wouldn't be surprised if Amazon were able to sell their exact figures to publishers.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

Amazon currently shows that Xbox One sales have spiked since the Kinectless version has been made available. I fully expect this to be represented once the official sales are released.

 

[Rangers]

Amazon currently shows that Xbox One sales have spiked since the Kinectless version has been made available. I fully expect this to be represented once the official sales are released.

What spike do you mean? The X1 hardware is still languishing below #40 as usual.

If you mean software, well the X1 multiplats are still way behind. There has been a surge of next gen titles in the top 100 after E3, for both consoles.

I'm not really sure what you mean when you say Xbox One sales have spiked. No hardware SKU is doing particularly better.

Right now for hardware in the top 100 there is White Destiny PS4 #5, regular PS4 #7. Xbox One Kinectless #44, Titanfall Xbox One #56.

As usual that would suggest a much more thorough PS4 hardware domination than I suspect June NPD will actually come in at. Now, May NPD may be a different story, we're all expecting X1 to get shellacked there. But the current hourly charts would apply to June NPD, where it's likely to be much closer due to the introduction of the $399 X1.

 

[temesgen]

I've repeated that observation myself numerous times. For Amazon to not be representative, you'd have to identify Amazon customers as different in buying habits to BnM customers. There's some scope for that argument as buying online requires a different mindset to buying in a store, and some people still don't shop online. Buy for technology, and especially game consoles, the likelihood of the consumer being apprehensive of online shopping strikes me as very low. I'd expect the distribution of customers shopping at Amazon vs. elsewhere to be the same. Those who feel otherwise need to present a decent case why - why would the distribution of people buying on Amazon have different buying habits to those not?

Good points however do we know what percentage of console buyers are teens and tweens? I ask bc a 13 year old may not have a bank account, they might be using the money made from mowing lawns and birthdays to buy a console.

If I think back to when I was a kid if I wanted to buy something I paid cash, I went into the store and got it that day. I would think for no other reason the immediate availability at Bestbuy and Walmart might also skew numbers for age groups which aren't particularly well known for patience....

 

[Sonic]

Good points however do we know what percentage of console buyers are teens and tweens? I ask bc a 13 year old may not have a bank account, they might be using the money made from mowing lawns and birthdays to buy a console.

If I think back to when I was a kid if I wanted to buy something I paid cash, I went into the store and got it that day. I would think for no other reason the immediate availability at Bestbuy and Walmart might also skew numbers for age groups which aren't particularly well known for patience....

I'd really like to see Walmart's sales figures. I believe that would be the one company that is best representative of the US as a whole. When it comes to retail and BnM sales there's no other company in the US that has the scale and penetration Walmart does. I'd think that certain demographics that don't shop online regularly would be better represented by Walmart on a national level. If we could somehow get Walmart's numbers or even charts and compare them with Amazon's it would give us a better picture.

 

[Rangers]

Well, there's this little thing called NPD that pretty much covers everybody, with almost perfect accuracy at this point (since they have Wal Mart now too) as far as I'm aware. They were ~60% coverage before Wal Mart. Now I'd guess they're something over 90%.

Granted, we hardly get the detail we'd like out of NPD. But then again rankings with no actual sales numbers like Amazon are pretty lacking too.

 

[Sonic]

I'm really interested in the data that NPD collects. It would be awesome to have breakdown by states or regions to see if there's a strong preference from one to the other. This is a big ass country and would be nice to see all that data. Not that it would be particularly useful other than satisfying many of our curiosities regarding the sales numbers of consoles, but it would be nice. Iimagine an interactive map of the US with a timeline that shows sell through numbers and penetration in a visual manner. Sony could be blue and MS would be red, and the cities and regions that are population centers should light up at a quicker and denser rate than others. But if say one region is more blue or more red then it would help determine the preference of consoles for that region. Blah.

 

[temesgen]

Well, there's this little thing called NPD that pretty much covers everybody, with almost perfect accuracy at this point (since they have Wal Mart now too) as far as I'm aware. They were ~60% coverage before Wal Mart. Now I'd guess they're something over 90%.

Granted, we hardly get the detail we'd like out of NPD. But then again rankings with no actual sales numbers like Amazon are pretty lacking too.

My point is simply that amazon might skew slightly to a different buyer than the one who shops at Bestbuy or Walmart. Amazon buyers all have a bank card or credit card, whereas Bestbuy and Walmart likely have some paying cash.

Even if NPD captures all the data we don't have access to it, we get snippets which are extremely helpful but we also like to reference info from places like Amazon even if that data tends to skew things one way or another.