MS results in. Besides the usual gaudy profits, they report 1.2m X1's and .8m 360's shipped, total of 2.0m. Total of 5.1m X1's now shipped.
http://www.microsoft.com/investor/E...s/PressReleaseAndWebcast/FY14/Q3/default.aspx
Little higher than I expected on the X1 figure.
360's first two quarters were 1.5 and 1.7, total of 3.2. So gen over gen they were down this Q, but healthily ahead overall.
Next Q (Apr-June 2006) 360 shipped 1.8, so MS should continue to lose some of that gen over gen lead next quarter, but still easily retain it overall, unless they do something drastic with X1's price. Beyond that it gets more difficult to predict, but 360's Jul-Sep 2006 Q was only 1.0, so they'll have an easy comparison there.
For Sony, coming up in a couple weeks, if we assume they roughly sold every PS4 they make, at 1m per month they've roughly been reporting, that should be 3.0-3.5 PS4's. PS3 should be about even with 360, so we might see Sony announce 3.5-4.5 total PS3+PS4 for Jan-Mar. Sony doesn't break down the totals anymore. However as 360 and PS3 sales drop off, it will become more and more a X1 vs PS4 comparison only anyway, which is good for our visibility.
Last Q the combined current+last gen totals was 7.8 vs 7.4. Even if Sony comes in at the high end of my prediction, the total consoles shipped since current gen began will sit at 7.8+4.5=12.3 for Sony vs 7.4+2.0=9.4 for MS. So not as bad a blowout as people make it out, with the MS total at ~3/4+ of Sony.
To look just at the current Q, we know Sony is selling about ~1m PS4's per month, MS shipped 1.2, so they're selling ostensibly 400k/month X1. So currently more than 2-1 lead for PS4. However, I think MS overshipped X1 last Q (where they shipped 3.9 and announced 3.0 sold) so those figures might not be entirely accurate as to end user sales (which is always the problem with shipped, they dont correlate 1:1 with sales any given Q) imo. But anyway you slice it Sony likely with a ~2:1 current sales lead with PS4 currently.
Total lifetime 360 shipments now sit at 83.7m. I think they might be able to limp over 90 million. Maybe. My guess is at the end of 2014 they should sit at about 87m.
You would think the prior gen would sell better. At WM yesterday I noticed the 499 X1 sitting next to recently reduced $249 X360 with 2 games, or 179 4GB unit. At any rate, I think MS has done a good job keeping 360 going. They recently did that temporary price cut or whatever on 360, (to 249/179) packed in 2 games, etc.
It' surprising the so called "long tail" in emerging markets for last gen consoles really doesn't exist as much as people think it does. Not for any console. The nature of core gaming is people want the newest.