All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[Silent_Buddha]

That's utter nonsense. The difference is exactly the same but by representing the difference as a percentage you remove any frame of reference such a previous or potential sales relative to capita or market size. The goal being to make the different look as little possible.

Your post reminds me of this.

Eh? Percentages matter, sometimes more sometimes less than absolute numbers. A 10 million unit gap is certainly much better if it is 100 million versus 90 million than it would be if it was 50 million versus 40 million. And almost meaningless if it was 200 million versus 190 million. While it would be catastrophic if it was 2 million versus 12 million.

I'm not sure what that has to do with bringing politics into things.

Regards,
SB

 

[djskribbles]

Microsoft finally gives some BF PR. Headline is XBO sales up 22% for BF week over last year.

http://majornelson.com/2015/12/03/x...-10-gaming-continues-to-rise/?linkId=19295212



If the 22% increase held for the whole month (big if), it would put XBO around 1.5 million (1.23 million for November last year)

If it was 22% increase for the month they would have stated so, clearly it's for Black Friday only as they specifically said so. MS also stated that it was their second best Black Friday in Xbox history. GAF says that their second best was 750k and their best was 960k, so we know it's between there. It's still possible that MS is down YOY but up on Black Friday. IIRC, they had better deals all month long last year so I'm guessing they sold less in the weeks leading up to Black Friday.

I was predicting something like ~1M XB1 and 1.2-1.3M PS4 for the month, but I'm thinking the XB1 might be closer to 1.1M, or even a little higher.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Eh? Percentages matter, sometimes more sometimes less than absolute numbers. A 10 million unit gap is certainly much better if it is 100 million versus 90 million than it would be if it was 50 million versus 40 million. And almost meaningless if it was 200 million versus 190 million. While it would be catastrophic if it was 2 million versus 12 million.

Like Rangers, you seem to be attaching value (as in it "matters") to how the difference between two numbers is represented. This is nothing more than Presenterion >> Substance. The way the numbers are presented does not change the reality of difference, only how that difference may be perceived. None of the examples you both posted are any better off than just referencing two absolute numbers, i.e. 200 million versus 190 millions - tiny difference, nobody cares. It's tiny difference in percentages too so why obfuscate the raw figures?

 

[McHuj]

If it was 22% increase for the month they would have stated so, clearly it's for Black Friday only as they specifically said so. MS also stated that it was their second best Black Friday in Xbox history. GAF says that their second best was 750k and their best was 960k, so we know it's between there. It's still possible that MS is down YOY but up on Black Friday. IIRC, they had better deals all month long last year so I'm guessing they sold less in the weeks leading up to Black Friday.

I was predicting something like ~1M XB1 and 1.2-1.3M PS4 for the month, but I'm thinking the XB1 might be closer to 1.1M, or even a little higher.

The way the PR wording is written it's ambiguous whether the second best refers to Xbox one sales or all Xbox related sales on Black Friday. Personally, I think it refers to the latter.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Like Rangers, you seem to be attaching value (as in it "matters") to how the difference between two numbers is represented. This is nothing more than Presenterion >> Substance. The way the numbers are presented does not change the reality of difference, only how that difference may be perceived. None of the examples you both posted are any better off than just referencing two absolute numbers, i.e. 200 million versus 190 millions - tiny difference, nobody cares. It's tiny difference in percentages too so why obfuscate the raw figures?

I still don't get it. It's a way to represent the same thing.

Similarly 5% difference is a 5% difference regardless of the absolute value. IE - nearly meaningless. Whether that be 200 million versus 190 million or 40 versus 38.

It doesn't matter if you have the raw numbers or not.

However, it is even more important than raw numbers when comparing differences saw at the beginning, mid and end of a lifecycle. If it starts as 5% then grows to 10% then grows to 20%, that says something that is easily analysed. Likewise if the reverse was true. Something that can easily be buried and difficult to see if you relied just on raw numbers. If someone said there's a 5 million unit gap at the beginning, a 10 million gap at the midpoint, and a 20 million gap at the end, that's almost meaningless.

Or how easy is it to parse if it was 12 versus 8 at the start, 33 versus 28 at the midpoint, and 109 versus 90 at the end. Hard to compare without...oh, I don't know. Converting to percentages?

Percentages can give valid information even without the base numbers. Absolute numbers require the base numbers. And even the base numbers are often un-parseable without using percentages.

Any number can be manipulated. Percentages are no better and no worse in that regard.

I'd take a percentage over an average or a consensus.

Regards,
SB

 

[DrJay24]

They are also using "black Friday week" and this year more than any other deals were running all week. It's all a PR game meant to hide numbers.

up 22 percent over the same period last year, making it the second biggest Black Friday week

This was the first year Black Friday deals were live a day or two early, including consoles. By the same metric I bet the PS4 is up over 100% YoY. Last year the Black Friday bundle was for Friday only, this year it included $50 off and was live for 4-5 days.

 

[Shortbread]

The way the PR wording is written it's ambiguous whether the second best refers to Xbox one sales or all Xbox related sales on Black Friday. Personally, I think it refers to the latter.

I'm pretty sure all this is preemptive PR on acknowledging Sony has taken November, and that they (MS) will have very little to say next Thursday.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

I'd take a percentage over an average or a consensus.

We agree on this at least. Please don't get me started on averages!!!

 

[Rangers]

If it was 22% increase for the month they would have stated so, clearly it's for Black Friday only as they specifically said so. MS also stated that it was their second best Black Friday in Xbox history. GAF says that their second best was 750k and their best was 960k, so we know it's between there. It's still possible that MS is down YOY but up on Black Friday. IIRC, they had better deals all month long last year so I'm guessing they sold less in the weeks leading up to Black Friday.

I was predicting something like ~1M XB1 and 1.2-1.3M PS4 for the month, but I'm thinking the XB1 might be closer to 1.1M, or even a little higher.

Sure it's POSSIBLE. It's also possible they dont normally track sales so closely. People (GAF) seem to be applying worst case scenario for Xbox ("Xbox didn't say they won BF, so that means they lost"), but if we applied the same harsh reasoning to Sony we could say "Sony hasn't given a PR, clearly they must have lost Black Friday". Or any number of other things.

Also, I dont really recall XBO having better deals last year...last year was $349+stuff, this year was closer to 299+stuff (even before BF). And Gears vs last year's Unity is IMO a win for this year's pack in.

If 2nd best BF was 750k, then I assume XBO likely did at least 800k this time. So that makes a pretty easy bar to clear to hit last year's ~1.2m. To do less than 1.2m they have to do less than 400k in the other 3 weeks of November, 3 of the busiest weeks of the year, with huge game releases every week. Possible? Yes. Likely? Maybe not.

Both PS4/XBO will likely do 1.1m-1.4m is the safe assumption.

I'm pretty sure all this is preemptive PR on acknowledging Sony has taken November, and that they (MS) will have very little to say next Thursday.

Like I said, then where is Sony's PR? Are they not able to match +22% is that why there's no PR? People seem to want to read into everything that MS is doing bad. Currently, everything considered, I think it's about 50-50 who wins, MAYBE I'd even put it 60-40 in favor of Xbox Chances of winning, but dont get it wrong, I'm saying IMO there's a strong chance PS4 wins as well.

UK results are a clue as well IMO. There, year over year, we had PS4 up relative to Xbox, but slight enough that if the exact same trend held in the US XBox would still take it.

Both are gonna sell a lot.

 

[Shortbread]

Like I said, then where is Sony's PR?

Where was Microsoft PR when Sony announced 30.2 million sold-through two weeks ago? Exactly.

Anyhow, Microsoft would have shouted from the rooftops if they "won" Black Friday - but they didn't. They did it last year, however no chest pounding this time around. Plus, Sony/Nintendo/Microsoft don't need the montly NPD to see how well they and their competitors did. They all have access/contacts on seeing how well their products (including competitors) are doing across vendor and retail channels.

 

[London Geezer]

There's a thin line between releasing a lot of PR and being annoying for releasing too much PR.

They came out with the 30M sales figure, which was everywhere. There's no need to flood the press with constant sales PR when there's hardly need for it.

 

[AlNom]

Please Respond.

 

[Shortbread]

There's a thin line between releasing a lot of PR and being annoying for releasing too much PR.

They came out with the 30M sales figure, which was everywhere. There's no need to flood the press with constant sales PR when there's hardly need for it.

Agreed. Sony announced the 30M, no need for Black Friday PR. More than likely they're saving it for next Thursday.

 

[Shortbread]

Please Respond.

 

[chris1515]

Monday a discount in Micromania (Gamestop) in France, 299 euros Xbox One with Halo 4.

 

[DrJay24]

Also, I dont really recall XBO having better deals last year...last year was $349+stuff, this year was closer to 299+stuff (even before BF). And Gears vs last year's Unity is IMO a win for this year's pack in.

Last year they introduced the $349 price Nov 2, that kick started sales early. This year?

If 2nd best BF was 750k, then I assume XBO likely did at least 800k this time. So that makes a pretty easy bar to clear to hit last year's ~1.2m. To do less than 1.2m they have to do less than 400k in the other 3 weeks of November, 3 of the busiest weeks of the year, with huge game releases every week. Possible? Yes. Likely? Maybe not.

You think 400k in the first three weeks when there are no deals is easy? Then they should have done it in Oct, Sept, etc.

Both PS4/XBO will likely do 1.1m-1.4m is the safe assumption.

1.1m minimum is a bit optimistic.

Like I said, then where is Sony's PR? Are they not able to match +22% is that why there's no PR?

You think a $299 PS4 bundle for 3-4 days did worse than a $349 bundle for one day? 22% up YoY would be a huge disappointment to Sony.

BTW lack or PR is not evidence of anything, as they say "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence". The very carefully chosen words in MS statement is a hint of something though.

 

[djskribbles]

Sure it's POSSIBLE. It's also possible they dont normally track sales so closely. People (GAF) seem to be applying worst case scenario for Xbox ("Xbox didn't say they won BF, so that means they lost"), but if we applied the same harsh reasoning to Sony we could say "Sony hasn't given a PR, clearly they must have lost Black Friday". Or any number of other things.

I think only a few people at GAF feel that the lack of BF win announcement from MS means a BF loss. But it is very possible. If MS had known that they won, they would have, without a doubt, announced it. So they either don't know Sony's numbers, or it was too close to call, or they lost. Same for Sony.
Based on InfoScout's sizable poll, it was definitely close.

Also, I dont really recall XBO having better deals last year...last year was $349+stuff, this year was closer to 299+stuff (even before BF). And Gears vs last year's Unity is IMO a win for this year's pack in.

I wasn't comparing last year's Black Friday to this year, I was comparing the deals leading up to Black Friday, supporting my point that it's possible that even if MS was up on Black Friday, they could easily still be down YOY for the month.

Last year MS basically dropped the price of the XB1 bringing the AC:U bundle down to 349 on November 2nd. That's a pretty big deal considering it was a $50 drop finally bringing the price below the PS4, plus it came with 2 full current gen games, one being a newly released title.
This year they only had a week long free game offer. Plus Sony had more to offer this year compared to last. Last year MS had a $50 price advantage + 2 games. This year the PS4 is coming off of a price drop bringing them to price parity with XB1, and they had multiple bundles available.

If 2nd best BF was 750k, then I assume XBO likely did at least 800k this time. So that makes a pretty easy bar to clear to hit last year's ~1.2m. To do less than 1.2m they have to do less than 400k in the other 3 weeks of November, 3 of the busiest weeks of the year, with huge game releases every week. Possible? Yes. Likely? Maybe not.

With little to no promos leading up to BF, I wouldn't say 400k is easy by any means. Shoppers are getting smarter and they know BF is near. Plus the flyers leak well in advance. The first few weeks of November aren't THAT big shopping weeks. Black Friday is by far the biggest week of the year.

Both are gonna sell a lot.

Agree with you there. I think XB1/PS4 combined sales will be quite a bit higher than last year, probably up 15-20%.

 

[DrJay24]

$299 is a mainstream sweet spot, they should be up YoY with ease.

 

[dobwal]

I was unaware that manufacturers can directly track sales of their competitors? What the point of using NPD reports as PR fodder when they can liberally and vocally use their own instead?

When has Sony or MS ever claimed Black Friday without using NPD or some outside marketing firms' numbers?

 

[Shortbread]

I was unaware that manufacturers can directly track sales of their competitors?

Yes and No. Directly, not so much. Indirectly, very much so.

What the point of using NPD reports as PR fodder when they can liberally and vocally use their own instead?

Because NPD was never meant to be used as "PR fodder"... it was (is) meant for subscribing vendors/retailers/customers wanting to gauge certain trends (buying trends), how well a certain product(s) and/or service(s) are doing, and how healthy (or not) these products/services are doing on a monthly bases. It only became "fodder" for the warrior console wars.

When has Sony or MS ever claimed Black Friday without using NPD or some outside marketing firms' numbers?

Probably never. Because NPD data collection is SUPPOSE to be INDEPENDENT of Sony's and Microsoft (re)sources*. Would you only "trust" the actual source info from the same company that's providing it, especially when it pertains to their product. I hope not...

Plus, with the age of the internet and social media, its just easier to hand-spoon the PR around the leaked data anyhow.


*NPD group does occasionally verify their data collection with the actual manufactures, on making sure a certain amount of accuracy is in place.