All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[Deleted member 86764]

Hence why I used the word 'focus'. They're not selling Xboxes based on multimedia, it's based on games.

This is very different to what they were initially suggesting. The original implication was that the multimedia would cause sales greater than a pure gaming machine. Which is obviously wrong and they've since learned this.

 

[DrJay24]

Finally, I think people are overlooking the major positive for MS which is their ultimate goal in this space anyway, which is large revenue gains from Live subscriptions and transactions.

Every PS4 purchase is a potential PS+ subscription and potential lost XBL subscription. From the number of 180s they have done since the original announcement, it is not clear what the original goal was or is now.

 

[McHuj]

Is there a way to derive from this that the Xbox is not being sold at a loss? Other than Surface and Xbox is there any thing else reported in these numbers? The slide makes it seem like its just those two.

The numbers would indicate that as the GAAP gross margin is higher year over year ($410 million) and revenue from Surface is $713 Million of the $1.8B for the segment. I can't imagine that all the gross margin comes from Surface so that leads me to believe that despite the lower price MS is not losing money and if cost cutting continues they may be able to reduce the price further.

First party games, Xbox live and licensing (which allegedly was propping up Xbox) are reported on another segments. No specific numbers for Xbox Live are given but revenue is said to have increased. Revenue for first party games is up 49%, mainly driven by Minecraft.

 

[eastmen]

I don't think we will see a shrunk xbox one this year , but I think next year we will see it and that would be make or break for them.

 

[DieH@rd]

Another data point, this year Xbone was present in much more markets.

13 markets March 31st,2014 1.2M XBO + 800k x360
42 markets March 31st, 2015 XBO + 360
[via Death2494 from GAF]

However, Xbone instantly lost from PS4 in ALL markets, no matter how big or small they are. Looks like pre-Titanfall stuffing fueled so much of the shipments in early 2014 that 2015 and much lower price can't compete with it.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Is there a way to derive from this that the Xbox is not being sold at a loss? Other than Surface and Xbox is there any thing else reported in these numbers? The slide makes it seem like its just those two.

No, there's not enough information. Since day one Microsoft have never published enough information to determine exact margins on Xbox hardware or even if the Xbox operation is running in the red or black. It's maddening and it's also quite obviously very deliberate.

 

[DrJay24]

Amazon is either having issues tracking the PS4, or numbers are just spread out. The top selling SKU has no TLoU and has been mostly out of stock, the base PS4. The TLoU SKU is further down and the new current best deal TLoU + free headset is #57,873. Then there are two more in-stock bundles; Batman and LBP3+Lego. This SKU proliferation is making sales tracking hard.

 

[DrJay24]

Credit to ZhugeEX on GAF.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Ars Technica have an analysis on Microsoft's recent numbers and while I'm not wholly sold on their methodology, it's an interesting take.

 

[DrJay24]

On the bright side for Microsoft, though, Xbox Live usage was up over 30 percent, suggesting that those who do own the system are spending more time and money online these days.

More time watching Netflix isn't going to make MS money, so time spent online is not a good measure of eco system health.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I don't think Microsoft ever expected these results; they were hyping between 400 million and 1 billion sales of the Xbox One before it was released.

Wow, I can't believe you just revived that retarded and inaccurate meme again.

For the upteenth millionth time. That number was for ALL consoles combined (XBO, PS4, Wii-U and possibly handhelds). They were talking about how they expect the console market to grow significantly compared to the previous generation.

The only thing they got wrong is that they thought they'd be far more competitive with the PS4 than they currently are.

Regards,
SB

 

[eastmen]

Ars Technica have an analysis on Microsoft's recent numbers and while I'm not wholly sold on their methodology, it's an interesting take.

well it certianly proves that the xbox 360 needs a price cut. I have heard strong rumors of an xbox 360 mini . That could jump start those sales again esp if it comes with a sizable price drop

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Is there a way to derive from this that the Xbox is not being sold at a loss? Other than Surface and Xbox is there any thing else reported in these numbers? The slide makes it seem like its just those two.

The numbers would indicate that as the GAAP gross margin is higher year over year ($410 million) and revenue from Surface is $713 Million of the $1.8B for the segment. I can't imagine that all the gross margin comes from Surface so that leads me to believe that despite the lower price MS is not losing money and if cost cutting continues they may be able to reduce the price further.

First party games, Xbox live and licensing (which allegedly was propping up Xbox) are reported on another segments. No specific numbers for Xbox Live are given but revenue is said to have increased. Revenue for first party games is up 49%, mainly driven by Minecraft.

There isn't a way to come to any definitive conclusions without more information. But it's quite likely that the Xbox brand (all Xbox products combined) is profitable or at least break even at the current time.

And you are correct, as I pointed out before the increase in gross margin isn't just due to the Surface brand, that was just one significant contributor. The other significant contributor was a significant reduction in the cost of revenue for the Xbox brand which outpaced the reduction in revenue suffered by that brand.

Is it possible that the Xbox brand is operating at a loss? Sure. Is it likely? IMO, not really. MS is unlikely to be getting greater than 55% gross margins on their Surface Pro line, especially as the bulk of their sales are with the relatively lower margin models. And their prices aren't hugely higher than their OEM partners (especially when taking into account materials and build quality) which are known to operate on very thin margins.

Regards,
SB

 

[Shortbread]

Piggybacking off Silent_Buddha...

Link

"We believe over the next five years we can break a 100 million unit installed base," he explained. "That’s something we’re shooting for, it’s not a financial plan as such, it’s just rough numbers if you will.

"To sell another 25 million, half of those will probably come from replacements, but half will come from new buyers. And the way we’ll break into those segments is by hitting new price points, getting new classes of entertainment to come with the Xbox, and breaking into new customer segments. So you’ll see the Xbox 360 continue to exist, even as we launch the next generation Xbox One."

I always wondered about the actual XB360 installed userbase, when factoring out the replacement units.

Does anyone have any data about (on) XB360 failure rate?

Personally, I have never had any issues (still have the original model), however my brother-in-law has replaced his several times.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

Wow, I can't believe you just revived that retarded and inaccurate meme again

You're right it's inaccurate, only a person that's snorted a 4in line of coke would come up with that figure regardless of whether it was generational or platform specific.

 

[DrJay24]

Given that the PS4 is selling like the Wii despite not being cheap or a fad over the same post-launch period and that the XBOne is outselling the unequivocally successful 360 (and following a very similar sales curve) over the same post-launch period, can we please kill the "XBOne is doomed" narrative and maybe focus more on the "PS4 is killing it" one?

It's also at the PS3 point in the curve, people said the PS3 was doomed at the same point last gen.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

More time watching Netflix isn't going to make MS money, so time spent online is not a good measure of eco system health.

Are you sure? I'm willing to bet there probably is a correlation between time spent using a device and the number of times that device is used to make purchases and thus is an indicator of eco system health.

 

[DrJay24]

The PS3 was the most used Netflix device last gen, I'm not sure Sony was swimming in PSN money.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

The PS3 was the most used Netflix device last gen, I'm not sure Sony was swimming in PSN money.

Don't have the numbers, but from what I read, Sony is pretty happy with the trends for PSN and PSN+ and the revenue they are beginning to generate. I'd say a substantial part of that is due to people being comfortable turning to the platform to use non-revenue generating services are more likely to stay on that platform to make purchases.

In fact, I'd bet that the fact that so many people used the PSN to watch Netflix on the PS3 emboldened Sony to make the choices they have with their network offerings going forward.

 

[Rangers]

Given that the PS4 is selling like the Wii despite not being cheap or a fad over the same post-launch period and that the XBOne is outselling the unequivocally successful 360 (and following a very similar sales curve) over the same post-launch period, can we please kill the "XBOne is doomed" narrative and maybe focus more on the "PS4 is killing it" one?

Yeah, the X1 is still handily outdoing 360 over the same point in NPD, and thus probably worldwide sales. I have charts for that I may post one soon.

It gets interesting though because X360 had a strong 2nd half 2007 (equivalent to X1's 2nd half 2015). So the gen over gen comparisons start getting tougher soon. Then, X360 also had an 8 year life before successor and very strong sales late in it's life (2010, 2011). Which would be equivalent to 2018, 19 for X1. It's simply too early to say if either of those will occur for X1 (the 8 year life at least seems unlikely to me).

About all we can say right now is that X1 LTD will lead X360 in gen over gen NPD sales certainly for the next 1-2 years. It's lead is too great (~1.6 million as of February I think). The farther out you get the harder it is to make a prediction.

You're right it's inaccurate, only a person that's snorted a 4in line of coke would come up with that figure regardless of whether it was generational or platform specific.

Mmm, he was probably going off the fact before this gen I believe every gen had increased sales, and last gen did 260 million plus combined consoles (100m Wii 80+m PS3/360 each). And that's just for consoles, if you included DS and PSP as Silent Bhudda thinks he may have meant...that'd be a lot more especially for DS. And combining that with some crazy thoughts I'm just saying lets say 400 million didn't seem out of the question.

Looking over old NPD's though the difference to today is pretty striking. I guess there has definitely been a downturn. An example, September 2007 NPD

September 07
Wii 501,000
DS 495,800
PS3 119,400
PSP 284,500
360 527,800
PS2 215,000
GBA 75,000

You dont see NPD numbers like this anymore. Probably even removing the utter cratering of handheld market. If I was to put out a optimistic guess at September 2015 NPD it'd probably be like, 500k PS4, 400k X1, 250k 3DS, everything else=paltry.